causal

Nvidia secured TSMC capacity by ordering earliest

Nvidia is getting the majority of TSMC 3nm supply not by special favor but because it sent the strongest, earliest market signal—non-cancelable, non-returnable orders with deposits—far ahead of Google and Amazon, whose chips also faced delays, while TSMC independently verified downstream supply (PCB, memory) could support Nvidia's volumes.

causalpending

Speaker

Dylan Patel

Evidence Quote

The market signaled, “Hey, we need this much capacity next year...We’ll sign non-cancelable, non-returnable. We may even pay deposits.” Nvidia just did it way earlier than Google or Amazon.

Source

Dwarkesh Patel Podcast - Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI computeDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:34:26 AM

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