forecast

Destroying Taiwan fabs would collapse global compute growth

Even if every TSMC process engineer were airlifted out and the fabs destroyed in a Taiwan conflict, replicating that built-up capacity elsewhere would take years; incremental compute capacity would fall from hundreds of gigawatts/year toward just 10-20 GW across Intel and Samsung, massively shrinking (not just slowing) global GDP and leaving China with the strongest remaining vertically integrated supply chain.

forecastpending

Speaker

Dylan Patel

Evidence Quote

you’ve drastically slowed US and global GDP. Not just growth, you’ve shrunk the GDP massively

Source

Dwarkesh Patel Podcast - Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI computeDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:34:26 AM

My Notes

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