forecast
Destroying Taiwan fabs would collapse global compute growth
Even if every TSMC process engineer were airlifted out and the fabs destroyed in a Taiwan conflict, replicating that built-up capacity elsewhere would take years; incremental compute capacity would fall from hundreds of gigawatts/year toward just 10-20 GW across Intel and Samsung, massively shrinking (not just slowing) global GDP and leaving China with the strongest remaining vertically integrated supply chain.
forecastpending
Speaker
Dylan PatelEvidence Quote
“you’ve drastically slowed US and global GDP. Not just growth, you’ve shrunk the GDP massively”
Source
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast - Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute— Dwarkesh Patel PodcastCreated: 6/13/2026, 3:34:26 AM
My Notes
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