Trump's pattern of backing down (the 'taco' phenomenon) — backing down in roughly 21 of 23 documented threats — was a valid pattern, but it was already fading by the time it became a popular label, illustrating an 'Economist cover' effect where the pattern becomes less true once widely recognized, requiring constant reassessment.

causalpending

Speaker

Andrew Bishop

Evidence Quote

Trump had backed down in 21 out of 23 threats or something like that... it's almost like the the Economist or Time magazine cover phenomenon where by the time the taco thing came out... it was already getting arguably less true

Source

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War | Odd LotsBloomberg Podcasts
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM

My Notes

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