Most Wars Are Short

Most wars, when they happen, are short—the unconditional probability based on history is that a conflict like Russia-Ukraine ends within a month or two—because once fighting resolves the uncertainty about relative strength, the bargaining incentives reassert themselves; the salient exceptions like long quagmires are remembered while the many quickly-resolved interventions (e.g., 1994 Haiti, Sierra Leone, Liberia) are forgotten.