Because there are many independent ways to reach a given outcome, compounding the probabilities of independent variables can tip the cumulative odds past 50% even when no single scenario is your modal (most likely) scenario — for example, US intervention in Iran exceeded 50% overall even with a low probability assigned to Trump wanting to intervene.
causalpending
Speaker
Andrew BishopEvidence Quote
“because there are so many ways of getting to an outcome, you can get tipped over 50 without it being your your modal scenario. And same with odds of regime change. You can get regime change through a palis coup... you got to compound all those odds because they're independent variables.”
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM
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