A rise in continuing unemployment insurance claims of 31% off their May lows historically predicts recession: since 1967, every time continuing claims have risen 31% from their base, the economy has been in recession, making current claims level a recession signal.
factualpending
Speaker
Danielle DiMartino BoothEvidence Quote
“if you look back to the history since 1967, anytime you've gone up 31% in the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance, meaning they cannot get a new job, we have been in recession since 1967”
Source
DoubleLine Round Table Prime, 2023 - Part 1: Macroeconomic State of Play 1-4-23— DoubleLine CapitalCreated: 8/11/2026, 1:33:48 AM
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