Putin miscalculated that the West would respond to a 2022 invasion of Ukraine with the same muted reaction it gave to Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014)—deep concern but no real consequences—allowing him to consolidate control while the West engaged in performative outrage without action.
normativepending
Evidence Quote
“I think here's uh pre uh condition of his uh initial idea was that uh it will be if he does something then it will be you know another round of very deep concerns from Western leaders and uh and not a real reaction like it was in 2014 not speaking about Georgia in 2008”
Source
Battlegrounds w/ H.R. McMaster | Lithuania: On the Frontline of European Security— Hoover InstitutionCreated: 8/11/2026, 4:44:48 AM
My Notes
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