Rapidly changing geopolitics makes analysis harder because it shrinks the already-tiny historical data set — e.g., the long-established 'axis of convenience' read on the Russia-China relationship became genuinely unclear after the 2022 Ukraine invasion — and the temptation to 'make it up as you go' is where analysis gets dangerous.

causalpending

Speaker

Andrew Bishop

Evidence Quote

the fact that so much stuff is changing so fast means that you have even less historical background or historical data which as we said earlier you're already starting with very very small data sets, right? And so the temptation there is to kind of just make it up as you go and that's where things get dicey.

Source

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War | Odd LotsBloomberg Podcasts
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM

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