Over the last 5,000 years, state-organized complex societies have exhibited predictable cyclical patterns where periods of integrative stability lasting roughly a century (sometimes longer or shorter) inevitably end and societies enter periods of social unrest, political fragmentation, and sometimes extreme violence or collapse.

factualpending

Speaker

Peter Turchin

Evidence Quote

by studying hundreds of past societies uh we we determined that they can go for a period of time working reasonably functionally keeping internal order peace and order these times May last roughly Century sometimes longer sometimes shorter but at least so far at least in the past inevitably the good times this integrative periods as we call them ended and societies entered the periods of of social unrest political fragmentation and sometimes quite extreme violence

Source

How do elites pave the way for social decay? | Peter Turchin x Brain BarBrain Bar
Created: 8/10/2026, 3:59:51 PM

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