An overarching grand theory like 'Trump's trade policy is all about China' can be accurate over four years yet useless in the short term, because for the first three months the administration was obsessed with Mexico and Canada — so analysts should avoid grand theories and assess each prediction individually (fox vs hedgehog).
causalpending
Speaker
Andrew BishopEvidence Quote
“this narrative that Trump's trade approach is all about China right that is totally accurate over the course of four years it is totally useless in the short term because if I told you that... on January 19th and you were... running a hedge fund, you would have been very, very surprised that the first 3 months of the Trump administration were all obsessed with Mexico and Canada”
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM
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