Assigning probabilities to sub-events before publishing serves as an internal logic check: if the cumulative math doesn't add up to 100, it signals you are overstating or understating some aspect of the dynamic, even though the value is logical rather than mathematical.
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Speaker
Andrew BishopEvidence Quote
“if the math doesn't add up, that can highlight a problem in your logic, right? It's not a math problem. Who cares if the math doesn't add up from a mathematical standpoint? But if you end up with above 100 or below 100 or whatever, that means that you're probably overstating one aspect”
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM
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