Assigning probabilities to sub-events before publishing serves as an internal logic check: if the cumulative math doesn't add up to 100, it signals you are overstating or understating some aspect of the dynamic, even though the value is logical rather than mathematical.

definitionpending

Speaker

Andrew Bishop

Evidence Quote

if the math doesn't add up, that can highlight a problem in your logic, right? It's not a math problem. Who cares if the math doesn't add up from a mathematical standpoint? But if you end up with above 100 or below 100 or whatever, that means that you're probably overstating one aspect

Source

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War | Odd LotsBloomberg Podcasts
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM

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