In a recession, the U.S. budget deficit increases by an average of 7-9% of GDP (even excluding COVID), which would add roughly $1.5 trillion to the current $2 trillion deficit, bringing it to approximately $3.5-4.5 trillion in the next downturn.
factualpending
Evidence Quote
“the budget deficit has gone up 9% of GDP on average if we take out covid we could say it's maybe you know 7% of GDP but if we tack on 7% of GDP to our budget deficit in the next recession you're talking about something like another 20 2 and a half trillion so now it would be a $4.5 trillion do budget deficit”
Created: 8/10/2026, 10:50:41 PM
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