Most geopolitical situations have far more than two possible outcomes (unlike coin flips with 50-50 odds), making prediction much harder than random chance despite how it appears

factualpending

Speaker

Joe Weisenthal

Evidence Quote

harder than just throwing darts or flipping a coin...most situations have far more than two scenarios...very difficult thing to do to predict all geopolitical outcomes

Source

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War | Odd LotsBloomberg Podcasts
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:02:33 AM

My Notes

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