Bishop's final June 16th takeaways concluded that the overwhelming majority of scenarios end in a negotiated Iranian capitulation with no meaningful damage to global oil supply or Gulf assets, which proved a useful market-relevant conclusion even though US intervention (assigned 25%) did occur.

I always say what I'm concerned about is geopolitical tension — it's a cliché people fall back on when things seem fine.

7030 is the new 6040 — analysts who want to sound confident but are unsure now state 70% odds instead of the old 60%.