For Hurricane Katrina, ensemble forecasts about a week before landfall showed multiple possible tracks with roughly equal probability; New Orleans was one possibility among several, so a disaster preparedness director would not have invested all resources into preparing New Orleans specifically.
factualpending
Speaker
Tim PalmerEvidence Quote
“at that range there was clearly a possibility that Katrina would hit New Orleans...but it was by far not clear...you wouldn't perhaps put all your eggs in the basket”
Source
Chaos theory and geometry: can they predict our world? – with Tim Palmer— The Royal InstitutionCreated: 8/10/2026, 11:02:02 PM
My Notes
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