Tim Palmer
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Physicist and the primary speaker of this lecture, developer of ensemble forecasting methods and fractal interpretation of Bell's theorem
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Claims by Tim Palmer (20 of 42)
The Lorenz equations, discovered by meteorologist Ed Lorenz in the early 1960s, describe a simple model of weather using three coupled non-linear differential equations, yet generate a geometry (now called fractal or attractor geometry) that would have been completely alien to Newton despite Newton's invention of differential calculus.
For Hurricane Katrina, ensemble forecasts about a week before landfall showed multiple possible tracks with roughly equal probability; New Orleans was one possibility among several, so a disaster preparedness director would not have invested all resources into preparing New Orleans specifically.
Chaotic systems are often described as unpredictable, but this characterization is misleading; unpredictability is only about long-term behavior. Interestingly, the predictability of a chaotic system depends critically on where you start—some initial states are very predictable while others are very unpredictable.
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