A base case scenario can be market-constructive while the aggregate of all non-base-case scenarios produces a more likely market-negative outcome — clustering non-base scenarios revealed this in a Uruguay election analysis.
factualpending
Speaker
Andrew BishopEvidence Quote
“we had a recent scenario or recent situation with an election I think it was in Uruguay where the base case was perhaps market constructive but if you aggregated all the non-base case scenarios you actually had a more likely outcome of a market negative bottom line”
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM
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