The CPI is seasonally adjusted but the adjustment is done 'very poorly,' creating a consistent pattern where the first quarter surprises to the upside, the second quarter surprises less, and the third and fourth quarters surprise to the downside. This makes early-year inflation scares unreliable for annual policy forecasting.
factualpending
Evidence Quote
“the CPI is seasonally adjusted but they do a very poor job of it so there's an ongoing pattern perennially of the first quarter surprises on the upside the second quarter surprises but not as much as the first quarter and the third and fourth quarter surprise to the downside”
Created: 8/10/2026, 10:50:41 PM
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