Bombing Iran (weekend military operation) should have spiked oil and caused S&P 500 to fall ~5% and pushed VIX higher, but instead oil dropped 10% further, VIX collapsed, and S&P continued higher—demonstrating that headline risk no longer moves markets in predictable ways.

causalpending

Speaker

Dave Nadig

Evidence Quote

at least we're going to get an $85 oil and a 5% drop in the S&P. Nope. Turns out what we're going for is fall 15.

Source

The Market That Won’t Break | Why Risk Doesn’t Matter (Yet)Excess Returns
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:27:07 AM

My Notes

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