Dave Nadig
About
Host of Access Returns podcast; ETF/markets analyst
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Claims by Dave Nadig (7)
The standard 'wall of baby boomers selling equities' thesis is wrong: wealthy retirees are not heavily in target date funds or passive, they have been gliding from equities into bonds as they age (which is what target date funds do), and the $30 trillion wealth transfer to millennials would, if anything, increase public equity participation since millennials buy equities and houses.
The Trump accounts legislation is uniquely problematic because it not only mandates the S&P 500 or a similar index but also caps the fee at 10 basis points in the legislation itself, putting the government's thumb on the scale to provide differential low-cost capital to a selected group of large companies.
The host disagrees that this administration would meaningfully reform market structure, arguing every observed action (deregulation, non-competitive contracting favoring the largest players like SpaceX and Palantir) deepens the oligarchy, and that Elizabeth Warren was far more likely to want to act—though Green counters that Warren would only talk and complain while this administration has more capability to effectuate change.
The efficient market hypothesis is foundationally flawed because it mechanically removes the human being from the decision, ignoring human reaction functions like tax-treatment advantages, free 401(k) matching money, and other behavioral factors that are difficult to model mathematically—making flow-based analysis more intuitive.
There is an oxymoron in concentration data: stocks ranked 20 through 500 are massively passively held, but the top ~20 stocks (the Mag 7) are actually less passively held because they are the names individual investors and active managers day-trade, making the very-largest-stock multiplier estimates the most suspect.
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