Three major events in 2022 marked a fundamental shift in China's trajectory: (1) enforcement of zero-COVID lockdowns that went too far, causing food insecurity and migration of lockdowns in Shanghai until abrupt abandonment in December, (2) Xi Jinping's consolidation of unchecked power at the 20th Party Congress in October, guaranteeing approximately 20 years of his rule, (3) China's declaration in February of 'limitless friendship' with Russia with 'no forbidden zones' weeks before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.