There is no historical correlation between recession severity (mild vs severe) and stock market performance; a 'mild recession' can produce a severe bear market as happened in 2001 with the mildest GDP recession on record but 'a mother of a bear market'; profit volatility is higher than GDP volatility, so even mild recessions see 20% earnings declines.

factualpending

Speaker

David Rosenberg

Evidence Quote

there is no correlation between the severity of the recession uh and uh the market performance. We we had the mildest GDP recession of all time in 2001 and it was a mother of a bear market...even in the mildest GDP recessions, profits go down 20%.

Source

DoubleLine Round Table Prime, 2023 - Part 1: Macroeconomic State of Play 1-4-23DoubleLine Capital
Created: 8/11/2026, 1:33:48 AM

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