forecast
Memory crunch will cut smartphone volumes drastically
Rising memory prices will push smartphone volumes down from ~1.1B toward ~800M this year and ~500-600M next year, concentrated in low and mid-range where memory is a larger share of BOM and margins are thinner; since cuts hit the low end disproportionately, DRAM is freed for AI while high-end phones (Apple) absorb only modest BOM increases (~$150-250 per iPhone).
forecastpending
Speaker
Dylan PatelEvidence Quote
“the low end gets cut by more than half, while the high end gets cut by less than half...DRAM gets released and goes to AI chips, who are willing to do longer-term contracts and pay higher margins.”
Source
Dwarkesh Patel Podcast - Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute— Dwarkesh Patel PodcastCreated: 6/13/2026, 3:34:26 AM
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