Fast timelines favor US, long timelines favor China

If AI takeoff is fast, the US wins because its labs are scaling compute to ~10 GW each, distillation from American models gets harder as work moves from visible reasoning chains to opaque automated white-collar output, and ROIC on its ~$1T data-center CapEx compounds; but if AI takes longer to reach high capability, China can catch up by building a fully vertical indigenized supply chain while the West's middling returns leave it exposed.