Demographic models from the 2011-era (including a 2011 San Francisco Fed paper) predicted that baby boomers retiring would cause valuations to fall due to net selling, but markets did the opposite (valuations expanded from ~2012-2016), which is what motivated the search for the flow-based explanation.
factualpending
Speaker
Mike GreenEvidence Quote
“Valuations began to expand in defiance of the demographic framework. And the question became why, right?”
Source
The Trillion Dollar Trap | Mike Green on Passive Investing's Fatal Design Flaw— Excess ReturnsCreated: 6/18/2026, 1:59:25 PM
My Notes
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