Studies showing geopolitical risk doesn't move markets are short-sighted because they typically measure the S&P over the long term, whereas the firm's clients trade short-term and in niche assets (travel/tourism, oil and gas, Israeli shekel) where geopolitical events produce major sharp volatility.

causalpending

Speaker

Andrew Bishop

Evidence Quote

most of these studies typically look at S&P in the long term. And our clients obviously are not trading the S&P in the long term, right? They're trading in the short term. And you've got some pretty violent sharp moves up and down for a lot of these assets.

Source

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War | Odd LotsBloomberg Podcasts
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:17:57 PM

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