Dave Collum
About
Organic chemist at Cornell University who transitioned to markets analysis and economic commentary
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Claims by Dave Collum (20 of 75)
The de-dollarization movement is fundamentally about geopolitical alliances, not about the creation of a competing currency; a BRICS currency would take 20+ years to develop (as the Euro did) and is unlikely, but the shift to non-dollar trade and reserve holdings among 25+ countries is already happening regardless of currency alternatives.
The early- to mid-2000s, when Collum achieved 133% annualized returns during the dot-com crash, represents the greatest trading decade; by contrast, the 2010s (when broader markets returned ~12% annually) yielded only ~4% for Collum due to his cautious positioning for a correction that came much later.
The economy is starting to roll over despite official statistics suggesting stability, as evidenced by disastrous commercial real estate conditions and state-level business struggles masked by national job numbers that are dominated by worthless government jobs and new bureaucratic positions.
Modern consumer goods have dramatically shortened lifespans compared to historical durability: a 70-year-old refrigerator still functioned while modern refrigerators fail within 10 years; a reclining bed motor broke after 1 day; a vintage blender lasted 70 years while new blenders last 3 years, representing effective tenfold inflation in per-use cost that CPI never corrects for.
The 2008 financial crisis correction brought markets back only to historical fair value (~12 PE) and held there for approximately one month before dip-buyers returned, never ripping the will out of investors or forcing deep enough sentiment correction; this prevents lasting behavioral change and allows complacency to rebuild.
Nominal GDP includes consumption-based growth, yet the economy should only report as 'growing' when wealth is produced; the claim that 70% of U.S. GDP is consumption is inverted logic—you produce first, then consume—and reflects the federal government's practice of pulling future consumption forward via 7% annual debt growth.
Large established tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Facebook have stopped creating transformational products and have become 'stuffy old companies,' with Microsoft having no meaningful new product since Windows/Office and Apple's last innovation being the iPhone many years ago.
The two foundational tenets of capitalism are price discovery and correct pricing of capital (the most important asset), but central banks and politicians now set the price of capital by committee of bureaucrats, which is fundamentally incompatible with capitalism and inevitably ends poorly.
When Collum was 13, he made $2.50/hour caddying (equivalent to ~$20/hour today), allowing him to buy extra-large pizzas ($2 each, equivalent to multiple pizzas per hour); today, he could not legally earn that equivalent wage, and would have to 'sell drugs or do tricks' to earn comparable inflation-adjusted income.
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