Traders in prediction markets are overwhelmingly bullish on the dollar, with 70% probability of DXY exceeding 104 and 57% probability of exceeding 105 by year-end, reflecting expectations of a stronger dollar driven by capital flows and Fed tightening relative to other central banks.

The historical trend of countries trying to competitively devalue currencies has shifted; with increased protectionism, central banks are now tightening, which supports higher hard asset prices like gold as the competitive devaluation era ends and real debasement begins.

Consumer sentiment has tumbled in April with consumers expressing higher inflation expectations, creating concern about whether this is a self-fulfilling prophecy or grounded in actual inflation risk.

The Philippines and the US are conducting war exercises with mobile land-based missile launchers near the Luzon Strait between Philippines and Taiwan, which is the first time Japan has joined these exercises, and which China views as a direct threat because mobile missiles (unlike hardened Guam sites) cannot be targeted preemptively.

Trump's recent demand for Iran to give up all nuclear weapons and willingness to threaten bombing represents a 2-month ultimatum that is unlikely to be met because inspection agreements are difficult to implement with Iran's leadership, and the lesson learned by Iran from Gaddafi's fate (gave up weapons, was killed) makes disarmament strategically irrational.