Jonathan Rauch
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Journalist and author of The Constitution of Knowledge
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Claims by Jonathan Rauch (20 of 125)
The 40-mile battery is extremely difficult because it requires a very large, sophisticated battery with 300 cells where if any one cell fails the whole battery can stop working, plus complex software and control equipment just to prevent overheating; outside critics argued a 20-mile battery would have been much easier and less risky.
GM's decision to kill its hybrid program in the early 2000s was a far bigger strategic mistake than the EV1 fiasco, because they walked away from the hybrid market just as it took off, letting Toyota become master of the hybrid market and gain an enormous image boost from the Prius despite GM's technology being at pace with Toyota's at the time.
The Volt aims to be the first mass-market plug-in electric car you can drive most of the time without burning gas, achieving this by driving ~40 miles on a battery charge and then using an onboard gas-powered generator to recharge the battery, so the wheels only ever see electricity.
A fuel cell car is really an electric car—it uses hydrogen and a catalyst to generate electricity that runs the car—and recognizing this internally melted GM's resistance to building an electric car, since they realized they had effectively been pursuing electric propulsion all along.
GM initially conceived the Volt as an 'iPod car'—analogous to how Apple's iPod contained no new technology but repackaged it to reposition the company and change how people think about music—but GM escalated from a ~10-mile plug-in to a 40-mile range to break the public's perceived link between gas tank and automobile.
The EV1 was a technological masterpiece in reduced rolling friction, aerodynamics, battery and internal controls, but it failed commercially because its range (initially 70-80 miles, never above 110) was too short, charging took 8-10 hours, and GM lost money on every handmade unit it produced.
A growing view in the car industry since the 1990s is that dependence on gasoline is the growth bottleneck for the industry's future, because it is a fuel that causes global warming, enriches dictators, and has enormous price volatility, so manufacturers want to get off gasoline to remove a constraint on growth.
The zero-emission mandate of the 1990s was misguided because even an all-electric car produces emissions from the power plant generating its electricity, so it merely relocates emissions; moreover the mandate distorted the market by shelving the range-extended hybrid concept (the eventual Volt design) years earlier because it wasn't technically zero-emission.
The Volt's deeper challenge is not technological but organizational and commercial: changing GM's risk-averse corporate culture and breaking through with a radical new product in a possibly unready market while financially weak, making it much more a business risk than a technology risk.
GM's chronic downfall is not the inability to achieve breakthroughs but its failure of follow-through; the Saturn succeeded with great cars, dealer network and waiting lists by 1992-93, but GM let it languish—folding it back into the bureaucracy, starving it of product, and letting cars get mediocre—because unions and management resisted Saturn's special privileges and it only broke even.
To build the Volt, GM had to shred the car-making rulebook in two key ways: instead of solving the hardest problem (the battery) first and then building the car around it, they pursued real-time invention building car and battery simultaneously; and instead of a secret skunkworks, they went public early so the world would see how hard they tried even if it fails.
GM has a recurring pattern of falling behind and attempting 'Hail Mary' technology passes that fail, exemplified by Roger Smith spending roughly $40-50 billion on robots and high-tech manufacturing for virtually nothing while Toyota won by slogging ahead with continuous incremental improvements and no big technology gambles.
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