Markets will repeatedly produce mini-deleveraging scares that catch overlevered players offside; the most effective way to stop the 30-year from price discovery is to manufacture a growth scare, in which a broad deleveraging hits even gold and store-of-value assets while the dollar may briefly strengthen before rolling back.

Bessant is more likely to deploy the Yellen bill-issuance trick at the October QRA than at the upcoming one, because the bond market doesn't yet see yields as a problem, so there's no reason to 'use your bullets' prematurely.

The US cannot afford a recession because the deficit is already ~6%; a recession would cut revenues/receipts (as in April when equities were down 23%, pushing the deficit toward 10%), blow out the deficit, and be devastating to the currency — so they will instead 'grow their way out of it' and just smooth the bumps.

Tariffs are first and foremost growth-negative in the near term (like any consumption/sales tax, generally not inflationary) and only maybe long-term inflationary; consensus is shifting toward viewing the growth stagnation as outweighing the inflation impact, which partly explains why Trump is rattling the tariff saber so hard to manufacture the growth slack needed to find a home for bonds.