The relationship between onshoring and AI is not a chicken-and-egg question—metals must come first before artificial intelligence infrastructure can be built, not the reverse.

Changes in Federal Reserve leadership could materially alter equity market dynamics; if the Fed chair is replaced with someone willing to 'play ball' with the government, market outcomes could shift drastically.

Building conviction in a thesis despite short-term price movement against the position shows strong discipline; if the fundamental thesis remains intact, price declines create accumulation opportunities rather than reason to exit.

De-globalization is happening not because it's unique in history but because it coincides with all-time highs in global debt, and historically de-globalization cycles occur at similar debt peaks.

Gold mining companies' costs are not rising proportionally with gold prices, creating a 'golden age of mining' where producers can sell gold at double their extraction costs, ensuring strong cash flow generation.

Costa has been constructive on gold and metals since 2018-2019, and believes gold is still in the beginning stages of its bull market despite recent 27% gains in the prior year and 33% gains in the first four months of the current year.

Interest rates at double-digit levels would make Treasury bonds attractive again, reversing his bearish stance on fixed income and indicating a regime where gold is no longer mandatory.

MSCI index concentration in US equities at 70% weight, with no other single country having double-digit weighting, creates structural vulnerability in global equity indices and reflects problematic market structure.

Crescat separates its precious metals strategy from its global macro fund to address institutional investor hesitation about macro fund opacity, creating a dedicated strategy that generates similar asymmetric returns while being easier for institutional clients to understand and hedge.

Mining industry capex-to-cash-flow ratios will reach all-time highs as the sector approaches peak euphoria, with companies making acquisitions and funding projects lacking economic merit, signaling when to exit hard asset positions.

Costa is currently relocating to Brazil and was recently moved there at the time of this interview.

Using CAPE ratio as a bullish indicator at 33-34 times because early 2000s peak was 40 times represents poor risk management; accepting 70% of 2000 peak valuation risk for minor upside is unjustifiable compared to rotating into undervalued alternatives.

Attempts to fix geopolitical and trade issues after decades (or centuries) of established trade agreements can trigger unintended consequences, including currency regime changes, similar to how fixes in personal relationships can trigger unexpected second-order effects.

Stock market downside remains muted due to continued liquidity in the system and policy-driven support, making a sharp equity crash unlikely despite valuation concerns.

Financial assets, particularly US mega-cap technology stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Google), are at extreme valuations after 15 years of unprecedented performance, making a multi-decade rotation into commodities and hard assets highly probable as valuations mean-revert.

De-globalization and onshoring of industrial production will require massive new metal consumption beyond what the current supply capacity can accommodate, particularly as AI infrastructure buildout will add one US-equivalent of electricity consumption in the next five years.

Gold production is currently in a declining trend with minimal new gold discoveries and exploration budgets, mirroring the supply constraint dynamics of the 1970s gold bull market, which supports continuation of price appreciation.

The US dollar is likely to enter a multi-year depreciation cycle versus other fiat currencies as the current administration's focus on trade deficits forces currency weakness to rebalance trade, creating tailwinds for commodities and hard assets.

The 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) faces a structural headwind for the next 5-10 years because the historical assumption that Treasury bonds provide a hedge during equity downturns is breaking down, with both equity and Treasury markets now falling together.

Silver is the cheapest metal on Earth and likely the most interesting asset to own over the next 5-10 years, with the gold-to-silver ratio at 100:1 suggesting potential for silver to reach $100+ per ounce if the ratio compresses to historical norms.