S-curves are an established economic phenomenon where new technologies initially grow slowly, then enter a period of rapid exponential adoption as costs fall and demand increases, before eventually plateauing; historical examples include infrastructure (canals, railways, roads) and consumer products (flushing toilets, radial tires, fridges, microwaves, washing machines).

The Systemiq report, launched in January 2023 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, analyzes how new technologies will influence future sustainability and survivability through the concept of cascading tipping points, where positive influence in one high-emissions sector causes positive knock-on effects in others.

The Systemiq team assessed tipping points for 11 key zero-emission solutions using a green/amber/red color-coding system: green means no cost disadvantage and no barrier to tipping points; amber means cost parity is less than 5 years away with some remaining impediments; red means cost parity is more than 5 years away with significant barriers to progress.

Batteries create cascading tipping points across power and transport sectors: stationary grid storage batteries increase renewable energy demand, which reduces renewable costs, making electric vehicles cheaper to run, which increases EV demand, which further drives renewable investment, and cheaper renewables also make air source heat pumps more price-competitive, which increases their volume and reinforces demand for more renewables.

Cascading tipping points occur when positive influence in one sector with high greenhouse gas emissions causes positive knock-on effects in another sector through mechanisms like increased demand, cost reduction, and volume growth that reinforce each other in feedback loops.

As new technologies experience rapid adoption via positive feedback loops (lower prices, higher demand, increased production volume), incumbent producers face opposite feedback loops: falling demand, production cuts, job layoffs, financial devaluation, loss of investors, and increased cost of capital, creating a 'perfect storm' of business decline and stranded assets, particularly severe in capital-intensive and leveraged sectors.

The U.S. coal industry exemplifies incumbent industry collapse: demand peaked in 2012, followed by sharp profitability decline as production site utility rates fell below 50 percent; within two years half of the sector's companies went bankrupt.

Battery costs have declined by 90% since 2010, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar plus batteries is expected to be cheaper than gas power in the US by 2023.

Solar and wind made up more than 75% of all new global capacity additions in 2022 and now represent more than 10% of global power generation.

Despite cost competitiveness, the power sector receives a red rating for accessibility because massive central government investment is required in transmission and distribution infrastructure, rising from about $300 billion last year to at least $500 billion by 2025; additionally, planning and permitting timelines must be far shorter, with every EU country currently exceeding legal time limits and some taking five times longer than legislation demands.

Electric vehicles are projected to reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in the EU, US, and China by 2025, earning an amber rating; moreover, there is already arguably no cost disadvantage to EV ownership over the entire vehicle lifetime, which receives a green rating for attractiveness.

More than 99% of ammonia used in fertilizer production today is derived from grey hydrogen produced via steam reformation of methane, which releases large volumes of carbon dioxide; green hydrogen is made from water electrolysis powered by renewables with no carbon emissions at point of use, offering potential as an industry disrupter.

To achieve green ammonia cost parity with grey ammonia and trigger tipping points, a globally agreed carbon price of about $100 per ton is required, a politically challenging goal in countries like the United States where approval requires congressional action.

Steel, shipping, and aviation sectors receive green ratings for attractiveness of hydrogen solutions, but the Systemiq team holds only medium confidence they will achieve tipping points that could unlock mass-market S-curves.

Alternative proteins are projected to capture about 10% market share by 2035, rising to 20% with adequate technological and policy advances; plant-based meat alternatives have already grown 50% in Europe and 73% in the United States, with even larger markets in China.

Alternative proteins face significant barriers to mass-market tipping points: quality of taste, texture, nutritional value, and cost must all outperform existing meat products, an outcome that is by no means guaranteed; consequently the sector receives amber across all assessment dimensions.

Lack of transparency in the land-use and carbon credit space is proving to be a major barrier to adoption of climate solutions in this sector.

The Bezos Earth Fund backed the Systemiq report on clean energy tipping points.

S-curve adoption patterns are not driven by government legislation but occur because new products are superior (better quality and cheaper) than existing alternatives, causing consumers to buy more of them and less of existing products, which reduces prices further and accelerates demand in a self-reinforcing cycle.

The EV sector's infrastructure barrier blocks tipping points: at the end of 2021 there were 1.8 million EV charge points globally, but the market requires at least 5 million chargers plus necessary electricity grid upgrades to achieve a tipping point.