EV subsidy elimination is the most likely energy bill reversal; the $7,500 tax credit for EV purchase, which Semolist received for a plug-in hybrid Jeep Wrangler that gets 19 miles on electric charge and has had multiple recalls including one for spontaneous explosion hazard, exemplifies subsidy design problems.

iPhone 16's updated Siri remained 'dumber than she's ever been' despite supposed AI improvements, performing worse at rote tasks that would benefit from AI, suggesting Apple's AI integration hasn't delivered on expectations

Every incumbent around the globe lost their seat in 2024 because voters voted for change, and it doesn't matter that inflation was subsiding—the rate of change was subsiding if you tried to sell that message it would have been counterproductive because people would say 'my burrito is $14 and I don't want to pay that much anymore.'

Biden picked people for his cabinet who were not skilled at economic messaging; a former Fed chair in a highly politicized environment was a worse choice than Bob Rubin, who understood both markets and communication.

Democrats blew the inflation narrative according to Nick Somas, with Biden proposing a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in January 2021 on top of a $900 billion COVID relief bill, representing massive fiscal overload at a time when stimulus was no longer necessary and would inevitably create inflation.

Semolist could be set up as the scapegoat: Trump could dispose of DOGE in seconds since it's not a real government department, claiming 'they failed, they failed you' and externalizing blame for not cutting spending.

Old media is dead—the role that Rogan and other podcasters played in the 2024 election was significant, and Harris said no or didn't go on for whatever reason, which mattered a lot.

Harris also didn't go to the Al Smith dinner, which was the first time a candidate opted not to appear at this important Catholic event in New York, and missing it was another indication that her campaign avoided battle-testing.

The pandemic and putting the economy on life support then resuscitating it is partly responsible for the inflation we experienced, and we'll never know how effective the stimulus would have been if it wasn't for supply issues like port problems.

Semolist says Biden and Harris should have been 'a lot more frantic' about inflation risks given the subsequent inflation surge of the worst since the late 1970s and worst housing affordability on record.

During Biden's term, prices rose in the aggregate by 20%, compared to 8% during Trump's prior term, representing more than a double in the aggregate rise in prices for everything.

Federal Reserve System staff made political donations totaling more than $600,000 in the 2024 cycle with 92% going to Democrats, creating perception that the Fed is a Democrat institution rather than an independent one.

If office buildings are converted into apartments, NYC can certainly handle more people; the city hasn't grown in years and could accommodate additional population, but currently faces the opposite problem of miniature tenderloin districts forming when office buildings sit empty with vacant street-level retail.

Post-election, S&P 500 is up 3%, financials up 8%, discretionary up 7.5% (mostly Tesla), energy up 6%, with Bitcoin and US dollar also appreciating and interest rates rising, which makes sense given that betting markets had Trump at 60-70% odds before the election.

RFK Jr. and Matt Gaetz appointments raise questions about whether they are for shock value, payback (Musk swung 500,000 people to Trump), or other motives; they could be 'stunts' that get headlines and crush biotech/healthcare stocks, particularly those with vaccine exposure like Moderna.

The theory that Gaetz is a 'head fake'—put forward so Democrats say no to at least one controversial nominee, allowing Trump to claim victory—is plausible; this structure would allow everyone to feel they got something (GOP claims victory in forcing demurrals, Democrats get to reject one nominee).

Brain Belski (analyst at Bank of America) is calling for S&P 500 at 6,700 with earnings of $275, implying ~18% earnings growth for 2025.

Mike Wilson has called for S&P 500 at 6,500, down from his prior call, representing a reversal in his forecast.

News reports indicate Trump has been serious about tariffs and hasn't been able to choose a Treasury secretary yet because he wants someone who will 'full throatedly' declare tariffs are good for America, showing commitment to tariff agenda.

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