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Doug Casey, best-selling author of "Crisis Investing" and the Crisis Investing Newsletter, discusses the geopolitical and economic risks of the Iran war, its ripple effects across oil, gold, and financial markets, and how investors can protect themselves during a deepening crisis.
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*This video was recorded on March 13, 2026.
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0:00 - Intro. 1:54 - Crisis investing now 5:49 - Could Iran become the next Afghanistan? 8:20 - Strait of Hormuz 12:12 - War’s impact on markets and the economy 16:50 - Gold, mining stocks, and commodities 23:29 - Economic warning signs 31:25 - Interest rates, bonds, and private credit
#economy #investing #oil
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Casey argues that the Iran war combined with massive US debt, currency debasement, and over-financialization will trigger a depression-level crisis, making political diversification and commodity speculation essential for survival.
- War destroys real wealth and forces deficit spending that accelerates inflation and higher interest rates regardless of Fed policy
- The US cannot sustain asymmetric warfare while running $40 trillion debt and $2-3 trillion annual deficits; bankruptcy is the mechanism of defeat
- Private credit markets, bond markets, and over-leveraged economy are showing signs of imminent systemic panic as earnings fall and debt cannot be serviced
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War is not good for the economy because you are destroying real wealth; the amount of real wealth in the world goes down, though defense contractors and the state benefit and grow from war.
“war is not good for the economy. You're basically destroying real wealth. And the fact that you have to build it up again, and somebody makes money from that, the amount of real wealth in the world uh goes down. War is a very bad thing for everybody and everything except the state. The state gets bigger.”
The Federal Reserve cannot lower rates much despite Trump administration pressure because if oil prices and inflation go up, they have no reason to cut rates; any attempt to cut rates requires printing more money, which increases inflation, which pushes long-term rates higher regardless of Fed action.
“They can't because the fact is yeah, maybe they can they can set short-term rates by the amount of T-bills and short-term paper that they buy, supply and demand with interest rates. But to do this they have to print up lots more fiat currency. And as inflation goes up long-term rates always reflect that.”
Fighting a war on the other side of the world when you are the aggressor/initiator is a bad strategic idea; the US should not have launched this unprovoked attack against Iran.
“Look, it's a bad idea to fight a war on the other side of the world, especially if you're the one that launches the attack. If you're the aggressor, okay?”
War gets bigger and states grow from it; that's why political leaders in Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran are all for war, but not the common person; even the Nazis understood this principle during WWII.
“The state gets bigger. So, that's why the people in places like like uh like Washington and Tel Aviv and for that matter maybe Tehran are all for war, but not the common person. Even the Nazis knew that during World War II.”
Historical pattern: people have been caught flat-footed in the wrong country at the wrong time during major political upheavals—Russia 1917, Germany 1933, China 1947, Vietnam 1975—suggesting we are entering something that looks like World War III.
“many times in history in the past, people have been caught flat-footed being in the wrong country at the wrong time. It happened in Russia in 1917, Germany 1933, China 1947, Vietnam 1975. It's a a long list. Uh so, that would be my best general advice...we're entering something that looks like World War III.”
The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows, is effectively cut off by Iran to US and Israeli allies; tankers are afraid to transit because it's dangerous, which will cause oil prices to rise significantly.
“the Strait of Hormuz, everybody knows this at this point, 20% of the world's oil used to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, but the world re- But it's basically cut off. At least to the degree that the Iranians want to cut it off. And they want to cut it off to uh friends of of the United States and Israel. So, those tankers aren't getting through, but if you're nice to to them, your tanker can get through.”
Argentina did well during WWI and WWII because it wasn't involved, wasn't attacked, but made money shipping farm commodities to warring countries that couldn't farm because they had to fight; this demonstrates how non-participants can profit from war.
“Argentina's always done well during World War I, World War II, other dust-ups like that, because it wasn't involved in the wars, it wasn't attacked, but it made a lot of money shipping uh farm commodities to the warring countries. They couldn't farm, they had to fight, so it was wonderful.”
Private credit markets showing investor redemption pressure (Cliffwater capping withdrawals at 7% despite 14% redemption requests; Morgan Stanley limiting redemptions) is another sign of massive over-financialization; as economy slows and earnings fall, debt panic could trigger systemic crisis.
“it's a sign of one more sign, there are many, of the US and Canada being greatly over financialized. And uh with interest rates having been as low as they were, people were reaching for a couple other percent couple more percent by packaging up private deals...this is a lot of debt, and as the economy slows down and earnings fall, and a lot of people can't make their payments, I think there could be a real panic in the debt markets.”
The Iran war will be more like Afghanistan (asymmetric, long-term, unwinnable) than Iraq (conventional, short-term success possible), and the US will lose by letting time go by and bankrupting itself while running $40 trillion in debt and $2-3 trillion annual deficits that must be monetized by the Federal Reserve.
“Much more like Afghanistan than Iraq...you got to remember that this misadventure in Afghanistan lasted 20 years. And the US walked away with its tail between its legs defeated by backward people basically using AK-47s.”
Gold is the only financial asset that isn't simultaneously somebody else's liability, making it attractive when fiat currencies are distrusted; BRICS countries don't want ruble or yuan either, so gold is the refuge.
“It's the only financial asset that's not simultaneously somebody else's liability. And uh I've been a big gold buyer for well, 50 years...this is what BRICS was all about. Uh they don't want the fiat currency of a bankrupt government. So, what are you going to use instead of the dollar? Nobody wants to use the ruble or yuan either. That's why gold has gone up.”
Long-term interest rates have been falling for 40 years from 1980s highs of 15-18% down to nearly 0% in 2022; they have been rising since then regardless of what the government wants, and Casey thinks rates will return to 1980s levels in a major new cycle; this makes bonds a very bad place to be.
“So, uh bonds are very bad place to be right now. We're entering a major bear market for bonds. Interest rates are going higher. Doesn't matter what the government does.”
The biggest danger today is not financial or economic but political; you need to diversify politically as well as financially by having a residence in another country before foreign exchange controls make it impossible.
“the big danger that everybody has today is not financial or economic. Those are huge dangers and we can talk about them and they're um the economy and the financial system are coming unglued, but your biggest danger today is actually a political danger. Uh so, you have to diversify politically as well as financially.”
The wonderful standard of living in North America has been financed by debt; there are huge amounts of debt on all levels, and at some point the debt has to be serviced—the economic crisis is the inevitable chicken coming home to roost.
“the wonderful standard of living that we have in North America has been financed by debt. And one of the things that debt does is you're mortgaging your future when you take it on. There's huge amounts of debt on all levels at this point. And at some point that chicken has to come home to roost.”
The government intervening in futures markets to suppress oil prices is stupidity because it gives false price signals to the economy and businessmen, resulting in bigger economic disaster to cover up short-term political optics.
“I think You know, this is stupidity on stilts. Uh sure, the US government can do things in the futures market to suppress the price of oil. But, the way an economy runs is you need you need price signals. You know, you need to know what things really cost. And if the government elevates or depresses prices, it gives false signals to the economy, the businessmen, and it results in a bigger economic disaster to cover things up in the short term politically.”
The US should not be involved in Middle East conflicts and should instead focus on the Hatfield-McCoy principle: don't involve yourself, don't bankrupt yourself, don't make new enemies, don't destroy wealth; this is the only answer.
“The best thing to do is don't be involved in it and bankrupt yourself, make new enemies, get a lot of That's the only answer. That's what the US should be doing. Period.”
Oil is the world's number one commodity; the world cannot run without it; fertilizers and plastics cannot be made without oil; if oil and gas production is damaged, a daisy chain of debt defaults could cascade.
“oil is the world's number one commodity. World can't run without it. Yeah, you can't make fertilizers without it. You can't make plastics without it. So, you damage the oil and gas production industries. Uh that could set off a uh a daisy chain where all the debt we have in the world can't be serviced.”
The US exit from Afghanistan was humiliating, with people hanging from helicopters and the military abandoning $80 billion worth of equipment, representing strategic and morale defeat before formal war end.
“the US walked away with its tail between its legs defeated by backward people basically using AK-47s...people hanging on to helicopters from the top of the embassy...had to desert 80 billion dollars worth of equipment in Afghanistan.”
2,500 Marines are insufficient to meaningfully engage the Iranian Guard (200,000 dedicated fanatical soldiers) plus a million-strong regular Iranian Army, making the deployment tactically weak against Iran's defensive advantage.
“2,500 Marines can't do anything against uh the Iranian Guard, which is 200,000 dedicated fanatical type soldiers, plus a million regulars in the Iranian army. So, I I don't know what 2,500 Marines are going to do.”
Rapid technological advancement means hundreds of billions invested in current AI infrastructure may become obsolete before it produces returns, creating a paradox where faster innovation destroys the value of capital deployed.
“With technology advancing as quickly as it is, I wonder if much of the hundreds of billions being invested is going to be outmoded before it gets to be used and way before it gets to pay off the investment that's been made in it.”
Gold doubled in the last year and may have been anticipating exactly the current geopolitical crisis; recent price decline (buy the rumor, sell the fact) does not negate the underlying demand drivers.
“Well, it's run up it's doubled in the last year. So, uh perhaps it was anticipating exactly what's going on right now. So, buy the rumor, sell the fact. Maybe that's what's going on right now.”
Casey is mostly out of the general stock market, which is basically a high-tech market dominated by billions/hundreds of billions in AI and computer farm investments; he suspects AI is a bubble where much of the investment will be outmoded before payoff.
“I'm out of the general stock market. The general stock market is basically a high-tech market at this point. Uh, it's all about investing billions, no, scores of billions, hundreds of billions in artificial intelligence, uh, computer farms, and so forth. I don't know. I think it might be a bubble.”
Gold is now trading at higher than it should be by historical levels when compared to houses, cars, or clothing, but that doesn't mean it couldn't go to $10,000 an ounce or more because nobody wants to hold the dollar as it loses value.
“gold is now trading at more than it should be by historical levels by comparison to a house or a car or a suit of clothes. It's now above where it should be historically, but that doesn't mean it couldn't go to $10,000 an ounce or more because who wants to hold the dollar? The dollar is a hot potato.”
The timing of the Iran war is peculiar from Trump administration planning perspective because Trump campaigned on bringing oil prices down, yet he initiated a war that spikes oil and inflation weeks before midterms, likely from delusion that regime change would be quick or that Iranians would revolt.
“Does the timing of this war seem a little bit peculiar to you uh from the perspective of the Trump administration's planning? The midterms are coming up in half a year's time, as you know, and uh Trump has made it a platform mandate to bring oil prices down...And I mean, he and his cabinet knew this was going to happen if he attacks Iran. Oil price go the oil price goes up, and inflation goes up, and the American people risk getting angered.”
It is an unprovoked war because while Iranians have used harsh language for 40 years, the US has been provocative against Iran since the Shah was overthrown; it is not one-sided good-guy versus bad-guy framing.
“this isn't a one-sided thing where we're the good guys, they're the bad guys. Uh this is an unprovoked war. Yes, I know, the Iranians have said bad things about the US. They've used lots of harsh language. And this has gone on for 40 years. But there's been lots of provocation on the part of the US against the Iranians since they overthrew the Shah.”
Israel picked the wrong place in the world to establish a state 80 years ago; both Israelis and Iranians are actors in a regional conflict, but the US should not be involved as it's like the Hatfield-McCoy clan war that people forgot why they were fighting.
“the Israelis picked the wrong place in the world to start a to start a state 80 years ago. So, but right now they're at cause for all these problems and the Iranians are the are, you know, dislike the Israelis, but look, the thing is is I'm sorry about it for those people, but it's their problem. It's not the problem of us us here in North America what they do. You've got to leave them alone. It It's like getting involved with a with a a clan war between the Hatfields and the McCoys.”
People should cut their standard of living now, reduce discretionary spending, sell expensive cars, take second jobs, and pay off debt voluntarily—because in a year many will be forced to do this against their will when the crisis hits harder.
“my advice to the average guy out there is okay. Uh the economy is still held together with chewing gum and bailing wire. So, I know this will sound ridiculous, but cut back your standard of living, your expenses, what you're spending, going out to restaurants, bars. Cut Cut, you know, sell the expensive car that you got a $5,000 a month payment on it. Buy something cheap to get around in because things are going to get worse. So, act now. Uh Take two jobs if you can. And put aside the money prudently. Pay off your”
The United States does not need traditional military allies; modern US allies are tripwires and burdens that can't bring much to a conflict, not assets; the US should follow John Adams's principle of not going around the world hunting dragons.
“First of all, question comes up, does does the United States does America need allies? And my answer to that would be, no, it doesn't. Quite frankly, anybody that allies with the US today can't bring much to the party. In fact, American allies are nothing but tripwires and burdens on the US.”
The US compared fighting in deserts (Iraq) to jungles and mountains (Afghanistan), and succeeded in short-term desert warfare, but lost in mountains after a 20-year engagement, demonstrating that terrain and strategic advantage matter for asymmetric conflict.
“Iraq was kind of a conventional war...Schwarzkopf said, you know, we do we do deserts. We don't like to do jungles. We don't like to do mountains. So, it worked out pretty well uh in the short run in Iraq. But uh you got to remember that this misadventure in Afghanistan lasted 20 years.”
Canada has verbally committed to not participating in the Iran war, and many of the US's allies have done the same, suggesting limited international support for the conflict despite NATO membership.
“many of the US's allies, including Canada, have verbally said that they are not going to participate in the Iran war.”
The S&P 500 is at its lowest point since the beginning of 2026, and with oil at nearly $100 per barrel, this may turn out to be the biggest market crisis in years if the Iran war continues to drag out.
“The S&P 500 is now at the lowest point since the beginning of the year 2026 and with oil at nearly $100 a barrel, this may turn out to be the biggest market crisis in years if the Iran war continues to drag out”
US fourth quarter GDP was revised downward from 1.4% to 0.7% annualized; Canada posted worst job losses in 4+ years with unemployment at 6.7% and youth joblessness at 14%; record share of Americans (6% in 2025 vs 5% in 2024) making hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s.
“fourth quarter GDP in the US was revised downward uh this week. Uh GDP, a measure of all goods and services produced across the US economy, rose at only an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter...The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4%.”
The dollar is becoming a 'hot potato' that nobody wants to hold because it's losing value, and exit from the dollar is accelerating due to BRICS rejection of fiat currency and geopolitical stress, which will further degrade dollar value and interest rates.
“Nobody wants to hold a hot potato, and the dollar is turning into a hot potato. And the final piece of news...The exit from the dollar, uh which isn't going to help the situation.”
Mining companies take 10 years from discovery to production, at which point 'your problems really start,' due to regulatory, environmental, and operational challenges in bringing production online.
“It takes 10 years from the time that if you're lucky enough to find that Easter egg in the middle of nowhere, it takes another 10 years to put it into production, which is when your problems really start.”
The US military is now discussing putting boots on the ground in Iran, which Casey views as idiotic policy that will repeat the Afghanistan mistake and extend the war indefinitely.
“I just hope that they don't put boots on the ground, which they're now starting to talk about uh idiotically in my opinion.”
Small gold mining stocks are still very undervalued relative to gold itself; retail investors have not yet entered mining stocks due to ESG/DEI concerns about mining's environmental and social impact, creating an asymmetric opportunity.
“Gold, slightly overvalued. Mining stocks, still very cheap. I think they got a big run in front of them still...mutual funds and things like that haven't been buying these mining stocks really at all, either. I mean, they they want to stay away from them because they're poison from an ESG DEI point of view. You know, everybody knows miners rape the earth and exploit the natives and all these terrible things.”
Casey bought corn ETFs because grains are in the cheapest area of the commodities market and he is a speculator (not trader) looking for government-distorted situations to exploit over months or years.
“the grains are very cheap at this point. In fact, in the cheapest area of the commodities market for what it's worth. And I as I said, I bought the corn ETF...I'm playing this for a long ball. Uh I'm not a I'm not a trader. I'm a speculator. They're different things.”
Casey has personally profited from a small mining stock that rose from 5 cents per share to $1 per share, demonstrating that distressed junior mining companies can provide substantial returns when market mispricings occur.
“I mean, look, there's a friend of mine here in Argentina. And uh I meet him socially. And it turned out that he's a big shareholder in a small mining company. It's trading at 5 cents a share in Vancouver. I looked at it. Now it's trading at a dollar. Well, I bought it, too.”
The Vancouver Resource Investment Conference was the most well-attended in its recent history, with euphoric sentiment among retail investors, suggesting potential capitulation or peak sentiment in mining stocks.
“this was the most widely attended conference in their history um in in in in recent years uh in last couple of decades, actually. Um it was just jam-packed with retail investors...sentiment on the ground is euphoric.”
The 'inevitable' debt crisis has become 'imminent,' meaning the long-predicted collapse of over-leveraged systems is transitioning from distant concern to immediate risk requiring urgent action.
“to me, it's the uh uh inevitable becoming imminent at this point. I don't expect they can too much debt solve that stuff before it's too late.”
The economy is currently held together with 'chewing gum and bailing wire'—fragile improvised fixes rather than structural solutions—and is therefore vulnerable to shocks.
“The economy is still held together with chewing gum and bailing wire.”
War teaches Americans geography in that it brings distant places into public consciousness—most Americans could not find Iran on a map before the current conflict but now it has been brought to everyone's attention.
“It's been said accurately that war is nature's way of teaching Americans geography. Uh most Americans had only heard about Iran. They couldn't find it on the map. But uh now it's been brought to every everybody's attention.”
Kharg Island is where all of Iran's oil is transported to before being shipped out, making it a strategically valuable target that the US could attempt to seize, though its capture would not resolve the underlying conflict.
“They might have a plan to, for instance, attack Kharg Island, which is a small island, but it's where all of Iran's war oil is transported to before it's shipped out from there.”
Dubai, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi are looked upon as puppets of the US and are actually US puppets; as such they are vulnerable during this conflict as they are perceived to be aligned against Iran.
“what's happening in Dubai, for instance, uh Dubai, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, they're looked upon as puppets of the US, and in fact, they are.”
Bahrain, where the Fifth Fleet is based, has been blown up already and the Fifth Fleet cannot stay there anymore due to Iranian capability in the region.
“Bahrain, which is where the fifth fifth fifth fleet is is um based, has basically been uh blown up already. The fifth the fifth fifth fleet can't stay there anymore.”
Casey has completed a book with Matt Smith called 'The Preparation' counseling young men against attending college and advising what to do instead to prepare for coming crisis.
“Matt Smith and I have completed a book called The Preparation, which talks to young men about why they should not go to college and exactly what they should do instead to prepare for the times ahead.”
The interviewer is named David and is based in Vancouver, Canada, which places him in the center of junior mining and resource investing activity.
“You can contradict me if I'm wrong because you're on the ground in Vancouver, David.”
Casey is working on another novel called 'Terrorist' that may be published before end of year; he previously published a novel called 'Assassin'.
“working on another novel. This one will be called um hm The last one was called Assassin. This one's called Terrorist. So, that might be out before the end of the year.”
Hydrograph is a special situation stock trading in Vancouver that Casey has invested in, though he acknowledges uncertainty about whether it will become a multi-billion dollar company or collapse completely.
“There's a few special situations that I've been involved in over the last year. Like, one of them is traded in Vancouver that's been very interesting. It's a stock called Hydrograph. I have no idea whether they're going to be a multi-billion dollar company or it's going to blow up, but I've been in that.”
Despite the recent run in mining stocks, it is uncertain whether they will continue rising as they've already had 'a really good run,' making it unclear whether current buyers are entering at attractive prices or late in a cycle.
“I don't know if they're going higher at the moment. They've had a really good run.”
The interview is being conducted from Buenos Aires, establishing Casey's personal geographic diversification and his practice of what he recommends to others.
“Well, thank you, David. And I hate to be wrong about uh unfortunate events, but uh Yeah. Anyway, it's nice to be here with you although for me here is in Buenos Aires at the moment.”
Casey's specific investments and speculations are detailed in his Crisis Investing newsletter; internationalman.com is a free daily blog with good articles; Casey has his own YouTube show.
“a lot of the specific investments that I'm making and speculations, I should say, more than investments today uh are in Crisis Investing newsletter. internationalman.com is a our free daily blog. It's really good. Great articles every day. And, I have um my own show on YouTube, just like you do, David.”