'Great Collapse' To Send GOLD Parabolic in Catastrophic Monetary Reset: Francis Hunt
What this covers
Francis Hunt has been carefully watching financial markets for three decades, and what he sees coming up ahead is an event he calls 'the Great Collapse' where gold will skyrocket in value beyond what most people imagine possible, as the dollar and traditional safe haven assets like treasuries will be left in the dust. Francis explains how he sees a realignment of geopolitical alliances and a breakdown of our current monetary system leading to a reset where he who holds the gold makes the rules.
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00:00 Introduction 00:56 China-US Trade War 19:46 America Versus the EU 28:16 Gold Will Skyrocket 34:33 Great Collapse is Coming
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Francis Hunt argues that the US and Western economies face a structural debt-based collapse driven by unsustainable leverage and deteriorating bond markets, requiring a 'monetary reset' that will see massive gold appreciation while making the 'meltup' scenario impossible and making it premature to rotate into silver.
- The bond market broke in 2020 and the Fed/central banks have exhausted their tools—there is no functioning 'fire engine' left to reflate as they did in 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020
- Nine trillion dollars in debt rollovers must find buyers at higher rates, forcing pension funds and asset holders to demand higher yields, which devalues existing debt and destabilizes the traditional 60/40 portfolio
- Gold will dramatically outperform equities and silver for an extended cycle because large institutional players with capital preservation mandates will accumulate gold, while the gold-to-silver ratio extends to 170+ before reversing—making silver a later-stage trade
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The USD is inseparable from U.S. federal debt—money is 'borrowed into existence' and comes with an associated liability, whereas gold has no associated liability and is therefore superior as a reserve asset.
“the USD comes with a US it's borrowed into existence you should think of them as a pair. Gold doesn't have a pair. It has no associated liability.”
Buying gold is fundamentally a sell dollar trade—as the dollar loses reserve asset status, gold's purchasing power in fiat terms rises, making gold the optimal way to express skepticism of both inflation and the currency system itself.
“what's its price? It's X AUSD. What are you comparing it? And the buy gold trade is a sell dollar trade. And that's what I would leave you with uh and let you unpack some of that.”
There are $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury rollovers coming due that cannot be ignored; these must be refinanced at higher rates even if the Fed cuts rates, because there are no buyers at current yields, forcing the U.S. government to pay higher interest on its debt burden regardless of Fed policy.
“now add into all of that there's 9 trillion in rollovers to be done which simply can't be ignored I I have to mention it every single time so anybody who thinks you're going to get QE hold on you've got this 9 trillion to find a home for otherwise you got to pay all of it off which nobody can do not America not anyone else so you have to put it out again and it's going to be put out at much higher rates even if we have a a rate cut or two in the next few months so your interest bill's going up right now”
Gold is the best anti-fiat asset; buying gold is a sell-dollar trade; even buying gold in other currencies (rand, lira, euro) is still an anti-dollar trade because it signals lack of confidence in any major fiat currency.
“And the buy gold trade is a sell dollar trade. And that's what I would leave you with uh and let you unpack some of that...Buying gold is still an anti-doll because the king of the anti-fiats is gold. And the king of the fiats is dollar. So you even if you're getting rid of South African rands, Turkish lera to buy gold, you're also poking uh the dollar in the eye”
The path to wealth is to produce more than you consume, invest the surplus wisely (such as buying gold in this specific time), and accumulate capital; China follows this path (trade surpluses, production), while the U.S. abandoned it for debt-based consumption.
“in terms of how I say how do you become rich? I say, 'Well, Jesse, um, here's what you need to do. You know, um, you live within your means. Uh, you earn more than you spend. You basically produce more than you consume.' Another way of saying the same thing. Uh, you invest smartly with the surplus such as buying gold in this time...That's what China is doing. They produce more than they consume. They have trade surpluses uh with the world. Um, everybody gave up manufacturing because they could get slave labor wages out east um in many of the countries there uh and live the life of Riley and say, 'Hey, put it on my credit card.'”
America transitioned from a producer nation (post-WWII) that produced more than it consumed, to a creditor nation that consumed more than it produced and lived on credit; this pivot is irreversible and explains all subsequent policy failures, including Greenspan's refusal to tighten when the savings rate declined.
“America got to this position through multiple decisions and ongoing negligence all the way from when they used to be a producer nation that produced more than they consumed. After World War, when everyone else was on their knees, America made stuff for everybody else. And since then it's been going going down and then they pivoted it into a creditor nation where they were spending more than they consumed.”
One ounce of gold buying a basket of Dow stocks was peak Fulkerson in the 1980s after Volcker raised rates and cleared the debt; this is the baseline for the greatest bull markets historically; the current cycle will vastly exceed this in magnitude because leverage is far greater.
“Then they wound up a major major bull market and liquidity which included two uh well the tail end of the Russian Revolution into the Second World War all the way up into the swinging 60s. 28.4 47 O of gold you needed to make it to the Dow Jones basket of average when it collapsed 0.99 sub one 1 ounce of gold bought you more than what you needed for a full basket of Dow Jones stocks that was peak gold peak fulkar where he upped the rates and cleared out all the debt”
The US cannot win a trade war with China because the US is in structural economic decline—it has borrowed excessively into existence, created unsustainable debt, and no longer has the manufacturing base or trade surplus position to sustain such conflict, whereas China maintains trade surpluses and is accumulating gold as a reserve.
“First part first short answer, no, you don't win it. Uh the US does not win that war.”
The bond market 'broke' in late 2020 at peak valuations (rates as low as 0.33%), ending the era when the Federal Reserve could reflate asset prices through rate cuts and quantitative easing—unlike 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020, the central banks now have exhausted their tools and cannot manufacture a recovery.
“A debt based collapse uh started in 2020 when in the late 2020 when we gave the call this is peak bonds and this is a sell-off and the key thing as we were talking just before uh starting is that this is not 1987 where Greenspan can cut the rates and reflate. It's not 2000 uh where do boom you can super cut rates uh and reflate. It's not 2008 and n where you can cut rates and then do QE one two three grind along the bottom for quite a long time but eventually create enough uh heat with proliferation uh that you manufacture some kind of recovery. It's also not 2020 where you then threw trillions as never mind cut rates which was peak bonds the blowoff technically in rates uh in valuations and the capitulation in rates right down to 0.33 where you threw everything including 7 trillion into this uh you don't have that option anymore the bond market turned”
Asset valuations are hyperinflated across housing and stock markets due to monetary stimulus; the inflation from quantitative easing did not flow into consumer prices but into asset prices, creating asset bubbles rather than visible CPI inflation.
“We never saw the inflation. The inflation went into assets. So, we got hypervalued housing, hypervalued stock markets. We're still kind of there even though we've corrected.”
EU banks (particularly German Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, Swiss Credit Suisse) hold massive amounts of unresolved subprime debt from the 2008 crisis and never cleaned their balance sheets; they are 'broken' but held up by state proxies because they provide essential banking services and cannot be allowed to fail.
“They've they had their they broke the likes of Credit Swiss that's been absorbed by UBS. um by buying big buyers. The Swiss and the German banks, Deutsche Bank, Commerce Bank were big buyers of the subprime debt. They've never rerated or cleaned it up. That's why they broken balance sheets. They're being held up as proxy of states.”
The Fed does not actually set rates; it can only 'suggest' rate settings and signal intentions. The market must agree and bid bonds for the rate cut to work; if the Fed cuts rates but nobody buys bonds, the rate cut fails.
“People think the Fed sets rates. They're wrong. The Fed can suggest uh a rate setting. The market needs to agree. That's why they start signaling it so that the market starts buying bonds to make that easy profit by the time they announce a rate cut. Rates down, bond values up. But who's going to come rushing in to buy bonds? If the Fed says, 'We're going to cut rates. We need it. It's a recession that everybody's struggling.' Who's going to come in and buy the bonds?”
Japan is a 'proxy' for U.S. economic policy because America effectively controls Japanese monetary policy post-WWII; Japan holds $1.1 trillion in U.S. treasuries and is a 'bag holder' for the coming collapse because they had no choice in holding this debt.
“That's a lie because after the World War II America kind of controls the economic policy in Japan. Yes, that sounds shocking. listen to our professor Vera interview on princes of the yen in terms of how everything is done uh there. So they are almost a proxy which is why they're also 1.1 trillion holders uh bag holders for the collapse. Uh they they probably wish they didn't have that but they probably had no choice.”
Tariffs and trade war rhetoric are theater designed to blame a single actor (Trump) for structural decline that resulted from multiple decades of decisions and negligence, allowing the true cause—the broken debt system and Fed policy—to remain obscured.
“That's my take on tariffs. That's actually the theater of and it's been, you know, personalized. Donald Trump's breaking America or Donald Trump saving America depending which side you're on, left, right. I have I have no side in that argument. They're both awful. Um, but the the po the key part of it is he he's going to be blamed. Tariffs are going to be blamed.”
The Fed can no longer prevent economic collapse through rate cuts or quantitative easing because the bond market is broken and there is no demand for U.S. debt; unlike 1987, 2000, 2008, or 2020, when stimulus options existed and worked, those policy tools are now permanently exhausted.
“It is not 1987 where Greenspan can cut the rates and reflate. It's not 2000 uh where do boom you can super cut rates uh and reflate. It's not 2008 and n where you can cut rates and then do QE one two three grind along the bottom for quite a long time but eventually create enough uh heat with proliferation uh that you manufacture some kind of recovery. It's also not 2020 where you then threw trillions as never mind cut rates which was peak bonds the blowoff technically in rates uh in valuations and the capitulation in rates right down to 0.33 where you threw everything including 7 trillion into this uh you don't have that option anymore the bond market turned that call is good nobody wants it as a reserve asset”
The Dow Jones divided by gold (ratio of stock valuations to gold) shows central banks have turned the last century into 'three big pump and dump schemes'; the current crash mirrors the post-WWII Bretton Woods collapse (1975-1980) but will be even larger.
“Do you think central banks have reduced volatility and added stability or increased and turned essentially the last century into three big pump and dump schemes? That's a bit of a loaded question. I'm I'm imagining most people know where I'm taking them here.”
Nine trillion dollars in government debt rollovers must be refinanced, and if they cannot be rolled over at higher rates, they must be paid off entirely—but the US government and no other actor can afford this, so the debt must be 'put out again' at much higher interest rates, causing the interest bill to rise even as the Fed might cut rates.
“there's 9 trillion in rollovers to be done which simply can't be ignored I I have to mention it every single time so anybody who thinks you're going to get QE hold on you've got this 9 trillion to find a home for otherwise you got to pay all of it off which nobody can do not America not anyone else so you have to put it out again and it's going to be put out at much higher rates even if we have a a rate cut or two in the next few months so your interest bill's going up right now”
The Bank of Japan's rising rates are triggering a carry trade unwinding where borrowers in yen (cheap currency) who invested proceeds in US treasuries and Mag 7 stocks now face losses as the yen strengthens, treasuries collapse in value, the dollar weakens, and the yield differential that justified the trade disappears—this will cause forced selling and a potential market shock.
“You've had a little shock and then whoops, we stopped that bus. We can't let that one play out. You're now seeing the Bank of Japan's rates going up. So people that borrowed in yen because it was cheap bought dollars on the USD JPY pushing the dollar up suppressing the yen then went and invested in mag 7 and or treasuries which were paying a higher yield suddenly find themselves the treasuries collapsed immensely in value mainly in the US particularly Japan have still kept their uh value and at the same time the dollar's gone down the dollar went down in value. So dollars went down in value and your USD JPY is actually in a head and shoulder and is a fear indicator and is collapsing. So you actually need more dollars to pay back uh the borrowings. Now if dollar is going to go down and at the same time the asset you bought is no longer capitaly appreciating or paying you the yield that you want. So the yield differentials are squaring.”
Trump's tariffs and bellicose rhetoric against allies (Canada, EU, Greenland) are not genuine policy but 'blonnie' (Irish slang for shooting the breeze)—testing where there is low-hanging fruit—and are ultimately driven by the US's need to retreat from expensive defense commitments in Europe due to the bond market break and fiscal insolvency.
“So all this bully boy um and Vance being rude in Europe and Trump being dismissive of the EU, which is part of what your question is about. um and other action including that involving China which you also just asked about uh and the talk about Greenland and Denmark and Canada as 51st state. All of this uh blonnie I call it, it's kind of the Irish word for shooting the breeze in the pub and um talking a bit of BS. Uh is all part of testing the water to try to see where there's any lowhanging fruit. Why are they suddenly in scavenge mode and throwing their weight around? Again, I take you back to the core principle. The debt market broke. They can't afford what they already doing. And now they need a retreat out of the the de facto defense cost of protecting Europe, which America has overcontributed on.”
The Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s marked 'peak gold' in real terms (0.99 oz of gold bought a full Dow basket); it required extreme pain (decade of stagflation) but reset the debt incurred during Vietnam War and the 1970s.
“Then they wound up a major major bull market and liquidity which included two uh well the tail end of the Russian Revolution into the Second World War all the way up into the swinging 60s. 28.4 47 O of gold you needed to make it to the Dow Jones basket of average when it collapsed 0.99 sub one 1 ounce of gold bought you more than what you needed for a full basket of Dow Jones stocks that was peak gold peak fulcker where he upped the rates and cleared out all the debt that was raised during the 60s for the Vietnam War”
The U.S. cannot win the trade war with China because America is a declining empire with depleted military and economic capacity, whereas China is patient and accumulating productive capacity, and will simply wait for the U.S. to collapse under its own weight.
“First part first short answer, no, you don't win it. Uh the US does not win that war. Um, in terms of my take on it, um, it is essentially my paraphrasing is a is a hard partying bodybuilder that's taken steroids and got late in years and he's in the pub at 55 and he's a bit drunk and his liver is in a poor shape, but he was a big strong ass guy and he bullied a bunch of people and flipped a couple of nations over...The Chinese have a saying that says, 'Wait long enough uh by the river banks and all your enemies will wash by.' You don't need to uh be the one to get in a brawl and get an assault charge. He's probably going to break his pelvis stumbling out of the pub.”
Home loan originations are collapsing (mortgage lenders refusing 43% of loans) and mortgage rates are rising despite lower Fed rates because banks no longer want to originate debt for which they cannot find buyers or must hold on their own books, expecting further asset devaluation.
“home brokers are not wanting to originate new home loans. A they're charging more in spite of uh the interest rates actually being at somewhat lower and B they're refusing 43% of loans. Why aren't they wanting to originate debt? because somebody else has to buy that as an asset and there's no longer the demand for it or they have to sit with it on their own book and say how good is that asset the home market given that we're in a hypervalued property market hypervalued stock market and that we're in a collapsing bond market”
Pension fund bankruptcies are at record levels; auto loan delinquencies are at 36%+ (mentioning 42% separately); this is 'the great collapse' with rolling contagion that will involve hedge funds and banks, starting with the carry trade unwind.
“Pensions are destroyed. Record bankruptcies at the moment. Um, record declines on auto loans at 36%. I've already mentioned 42%. Um, this is the great collapse. This is reset and it's going to have rolling contagion and I wouldn't be shocked if they also threw some geopolitical events, but financially this is reset and it's going to start involving hedge funds and it's uh banks. This is what hasn't been mentioned yet. And watch for the carry trade unwind.”
The unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Medicaid are estimated at approximately 600 trillion dollars actuarially, contributing to structural budget pressures and possibly influencing policy decisions like the COVID-19 response which disproportionately affected elderly populations.
“your boomer demographic which is like an inverted pyramid welfare Medicaid and Medicare are all going uh up everything's going up uh the unfunded those were the primary unfunded liabilities which many have estimated actuarily could be 600 trillion and it is part of the reason why I think we had CV19 and the first people were the elderly to be uh to be let's just say retired early um”
The Dow Jones divided by gold ounces reveals three major central bank-driven pump-and-dump cycles: 1913-1932 (Roaring 20s crash), 1932-1980 (Volcker reset), and 1980-2024 (leveraged reflation from Greenspan onward), with the current moment at the beginning of the fourth cycle which will see unprecedented deleveraging and reset rather than recovery.
“They were introduced in 1913. Roaring 20 straight away. What do they do? They turn the turbo juice up, smash down into a depression. You went that 18.6 ounces bought you a basket of the Dow down to 1.88. Then they wound up a major major bull market and liquidity which included two uh well the tail end of the Russian Revolution into the Second World War all the way up into the swinging 60s. 28.4 47 O of gold you needed to make it to the Dow Jones basket of average when it collapsed 0.99”
Both the dollar and U.S. treasuries have 'broken the seesaw'—they are selling off simultaneously, which is abnormal because higher rates should drive currency appreciation; this mirrors the UK pension crisis and signals America's 'moment' is coming when both sides of the normal relationship go the same way.
“suddenly boom, everybody in Shopee, you spiked right the way up. In other words, you got at the seesaw where rates go up and bond values go down. Suddenly the seesaw just broke. They don't want either. So you actually had the relationship that it's uh the dollar was being sold and the treasury was being sold. Uh and normally you get currency appreciation when your rates go higher. So you actually had a break in the seesaw. And that I warned when this happened to Britain during the pension crisis of trust. America will have this moment. It will come.”
The yen carry trade has never fully unwound and represents a massive hidden leverage problem; as Bank of Japan raises rates, traders who borrowed cheap yen and bought dollar assets (treasuries, Mag 7 stocks) are facing losses on three fronts: falling treasury values, weaker dollar (need more dollars to repay yen), and lower yield differentials.
“watch for the carry trade unwind. This it's never unwound. It's never unwound. You've had a little shock and then whoops, we stopped that bus. We can't let that one play out. You're now seeing the Bank of Japan's rates going up. So people that borrowed in yen because it was cheap bought dollars on the USD JPY pushing the dollar up suppressing the yen then went and invested in mag 7 and or treasuries which were paying a higher yield suddenly find themselves the treasuries collapsed immensely in value mainly in the US particularly Japan have still kept their uh value and at the same time the dollar's gone down the dollar went down in value. So dollars went down in value and your USD JPY is actually in a head and shoulder and is a fear indicator and is collapsing. So you actually need more dollars to pay back uh the borrowings.”
Insiders are selling stock while retail investors are buying the dip, having been 'trained' through multiple collapses to buy dips—this time they will 'destroy themselves' by catching a falling knife, whereas shorts who had patience would be rewarded as recession and rising rates unwind speculative positions.
“all those guys that are in the meltup camp. Where does the money come from that's going to drive the bid stack buy up everything that's overhanging on the upside? Dimmond is selling stock again. All the insiders are buying stock. Oh, it's only retail that's buying the dip that have been trained multiple collapses to do that just for this one moment where they'll destroy themselves. Um, and you know, you keep ponzing, you keep going double on black, double on black, double on black or red or whichever it is uh in roulette and you only need to lose once and you lose it all.”
The euro appears strong on charts only because of rising yields on European debt (interest rate dynamics) attracting temporary capital inflows, not because of economic health—this is an inversion of the traditional signal where currency strength indicates positive outlook.
“why you've had a little bit of cranky strength in the euro not because euro is in great shape and its prospects are magnificent just be just because of interest rate dynamics for now.”
The U.S. has 'passed peak America'—a civilizational decline driven by abuse of the monetary base (borrowing money into existence); all value (stock markets, asset valuations) sits on top of the debt foundation, so when the debt layer collapses, everything else collapses with it.
“we passed peak America. Um and that is unfortunately a factor of the abuse of the base layer of borrowing money into existence. Everything else stock markets and their valuations all sit on top of that. You first have to have a money a point system which is money and debt. That is the foundational layer. You've borrowed too much.”
Alan Greenspan's monetary policies were 'economic crimes against the world' that set the stage for endless debt accumulation; subsequent Fed chairs (Bernanke, Yellen, Powell) continued his pattern of stimulus and stimulus, each time getting more cornered with less optionality.
“Greenspan, that economic criminal that should be in the H for crimes against the world in terms of economic policy and everyone who followed him. So, Greenspan, um, Bernanki, Schlommo, Ben, Bernani, our friend, uh, you know, Yelen and now ending, uh, probably with J Pal all the way through. All these guys, uh, continued to, to play the same book that they were given by Greenspan because he'd set the tone and he started, you get more and more cornered in, you'd have less and less optionality.”
The 2019 repo market crisis was the Fed reacting to symptoms it did not understand, not the Fed steering policy—it shows the Fed has lost control of the system and is now just responding to market signals rather than directing them.
“That's why they start signaling it so that the market starts buying bonds to make that easy profit by the time they announce a rate cut...But who's going to come rushing in to buy bonds?...You need the massive flows out of equities into bonds. But the flows out of equities going into gold”
Central banks have increased volatility and created three pump-and-dump schemes rather than reducing volatility and adding stability, as evidenced by the Fed's ability to inflate and crash asset prices in cyclical patterns since 1913—contradicting the stated purpose of the Fed's creation.
“Do you think central banks have reduced volatility and added stability or increased and turned essentially the last century into three big pump and dump schemes? That's a bit of a loaded question. I'm I'm imagining most people know where I'm taking them here.”
Inflation was suppressed into asset prices (housing and stock valuations) rather than consumer prices due to globalization and offshoring, creating hypervalued markets that have not substantially corrected despite recent pullbacks.
“The inflation went into assets. So, we got hypervalued housing, hypervalued stock markets. We're still kind of there even though we've corrected.”
Greenspan is an 'economic criminal that should be in the H [Hague] for crimes against the world' for his monetary policy role in creating serial asset bubbles and initiating the pattern of reflation that all subsequent Fed chairs (Bernanke, Geithner, Yellen, Powell) have followed, extending and worsening the eventual correction.
“the Vietnam war which caused the first such crisis but you got the right guy in the Fed chair and he turned up the pain so hard that you had a decade and a half of stagflation and he fixed that and he reset the debt to at immense pain of growth and many other things. And since then, Greenspan, that economic criminal that should be in the H for crimes against the world in terms of economic policy and everyone who followed him.”
Japan is forced to hold $1.1 trillion in US treasury 'bag holdings' because of post-WWII American control over Japanese economic policy (unlike Germany, Japan never had a formal peace treaty and remains effectively occupied), and Japanese citizens are now buying gold instead of bonds, following China's lead in shifting to reserve assets.
“after the World War II America kind of controls the economic policy in Japan. Yes, that sounds shocking. listen to our professor Vera interview on princes of the yen in terms of how everything is done uh there. So they are almost a proxy which is why they're also 1.1 trillion holders uh bag holders for the collapse. Uh they they probably wish they didn't have that but they probably had no choice.”
Europe is in a terrible state with broken banking systems (Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank holding unresolved subprime debt from 2008) held up only by government support, and is being forced to militarize spending while managing new immigrant welfare costs, causing European debt yields to rise as investors demand higher returns.
“The Swiss and the German banks, Deutsche Bank, Commerce Bank were big buyers of the subprime debt. They've never rerated or cleaned it up. That's why they broken balance sheets. They're being held up as proxy of states. So the EU has a broken banking system with major players that can't be allowed to fail because they are providing the banking services in Europe for now uh until we have such a all fall down that we set the clocks back and we we have whole new uh system which is why the CBDC and the digital euro is due to come out in October.”
The future system will be CBDC-based, UBI-funded, with social scores and compliance mechanisms; physical freedoms will be tied to digital token allocation and compliance with government rules ('take any medical interventions and then if you do your push-ups the chip in your arm will let you get so many tokens').
“lots of write offs, lots of renegotiated pension deals. you must comply with so social scores da da da take any medical interventions and then if you do your push-ups the chip in your arm will let you get so many tokens and you can buy your once a month beef burger uh in between your locust food. Um that's kind of how I see that going to have a little bit of fun with it.”
This is 'the big one'—the reset cycle unlike 1987, 1999, 2008, or 2020 because there are no policy tools left to prevent it; this is the end of the full cycle and will lead to multiple rolling crises back-to-back.
“So this is reset. This is the big one. This is it. And we're going to have multiple crisises uh coming back to back. And it's just started. and all those guys that are in the meltup camp. Where does the money come from that's going to drive the bid stack buy up everything that's overhanging on the upside?”
The eurozone debt markets will fracture when tensions build; countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Greece face sovereign debt crises because German backing is conditional; once the fiction of unified eurozone backing disappears, yields will spike and countries will face solvency crises.
“The Euro zone as they start militarizing and overspending there are certainly going to do it and it'll come a lot quicker because they don't have the same drawing rights as a hedgeimony. You have these different debt markets in different countries. You know the Italian tenure is not going to look like the German tenure even though for now there's a proxy that Germany backs everything. Once they start looking like the tensions are building and they might break up, you're going to have all the problems that started the Greek crisis, Cyprus, etc., etc., the Portugal, uh, Italy and Spain.”
In a recession with potential for rising rates (necessary to attract capital into treasuries), shorting Tesla would have been the optimal position because a 91x P/E multiple built on priced-in future promises is highly vulnerable to multiple compression when real rates rise.
“This is the key moment. Recession with a possibility that rates might rise. Why? Because you've got to find a home for 9 trillion. Who's going to buy that? Pension funds can't afford to buy it. So, you're not paying enough and we won't be able to make our pension payments. We have to buy it for less and get paid more. Then it might work. In other words, rates need to rise. This is what's happening.”
Capital is flowing out of bonds (because nobody wants USD debt) and into gold (not equities) because equities are hypervalued and the 60/40 portfolio is 'busted' due to bonds paying insufficient yields and likely to decline in capital value chronically.
“You need the massive flows out of equities into bonds. But the flows out of equities going into gold because the reserve asset is no longer respected because it lost 50% in four years from the back end of 2020 uh to its low recently. So, it's no longer a stabilizer asset. It's too volatile and it never gave alpha like the equity markets. It gave very low return...The 6040 portfolio is a busted flush um on account of debt. actually will pay you insufficient yields right now and is more likely to go chronically down in capital value. Who wants an asset like that when you have an inflation that's going to be stubbornly high”
Record bankruptcies are occurring in the pension fund space and auto loan delinquencies are at 36%, alongside a 42% rejection rate for some loan types, indicating the beginning of a 'great collapse' that will involve cascading failures in hedge funds and banks, followed by carry-trade unwinding.
“Record bankruptcies at the moment. Um, record declines on auto loans at 36%. I've already mentioned 42%. Um, this is the great collapse. This is reset and it's going to have rolling contagion and I wouldn't be shocked if they also threw some geopolitical events, but financially this is reset and it's going to start involving hedge funds and it's uh banks. This is what hasn't been mentioned yet.”
People have pivoted too strongly into silver too soon; they believe 'this is the movie I've seen before' (expecting silver to catch up to gold), but this is a much larger extended cycle and the gold-silver ratio will extend to 170+ before reversing, not compress immediately.
“people have pivoted too strong to silver too soon. Everybody goes, 'Oh, I know this movie. I know this movie.' And silver wins much more in the end. And they rush into silver. This is going to be a far larger extended cycle. So if we go to the gold silver ratio, um I was just mentioning it. We feel um that in actual fact silver ratio is going to extend right the way into the 170s.”
No other gold bug is publicly suggesting that the gold-silver ratio will extend beyond the COVID-19 high and reach 170+; Hunt's view is outlier and contrarian even within the gold-bull community.
“There's going to be silver bulls. I'm a silver bull. Here I am. Where's my coin? It's somewhere here. Um, and I am in silver, but I am stacking gold more aggressively...There isn't a gold bug telling you this right now that the gold silver ratio is could quite possibly take out the previous high. Never mind going to 170 or 200. There's nobody.”
Mortgage brokers are refusing to originate new home loans and rejecting 43% of loan applications despite interest rates being somewhat lower, because there is no demand to buy these mortgages as assets and the underlying housing market is hypervalued, making brokers unwilling to hold toxic assets on their own books.
“home brokers are not wanting to originate new home loans. A they're charging more in spite of uh the interest rates actually being at somewhat lower and B they're refusing 43% of loans. Why aren't they wanting to originate debt? because somebody else has to buy that as an asset and there's no longer the demand for it or they have to sit with it on their own book and say how good is that asset the home market given that we're in a hypervalued property market hypervalued stock market and that we're in a collapsing bond market”
The big players with massive amounts of capital will chase gold, not silver, during the reset because gold is more manageable to store while silver requires storage space for the equivalent value; the banking cartel (insider cartel) prefers to keep silver suppressed and cheap because they need it for military-industrial complex applications (5kg missiles), Tesla batteries, solar panels, and surveillance finance infrastructure.
“The big players with the big money are going to keep stacking gold. They don't have the storage space and they have hundreds of millions to to hide. They have to buy way too much silver. And more importantly, the people that do this are the insider cartel, the banking cartel. And they want cheap silver a little bit longer. For the military-industrial complex that has 5 kilos of missile, for the Tesla battery car, so that they can surveillance finance you and check where you are and take over the car, auto drive it to the police station because you committed some social crime uh on Twitter, uh, etc., etc. They need silver to be available for solar panels and everything else. You are in a suppressed silver market.”
The U.S. debt collapse is a 'controlled demolition'—a deliberate policy to burn through accumulated productive capacity and geopolitical power, not an accidental failure; the architects (what Hunt calls 'parasitic control mechanisms') always intended to extract value and then collapse the system.
“And that's kind of what's happened. Uh, they didn't think about longevity. Uh, they bullied, they lent on bullying too much, and now they don't have the power they once have. A debt based collapse uh started in 2020 when in the late 2020 when we gave the call this is peak bonds and this is a sell-off...And it is a controlled demolition. In other words, it was always the intention to take bad stuff, get toxic, um, be a big tough man for a while, and then you burn your wick out.”
There is no fourth cycle after the current collapse; the system will reset to a CBDC/UBI framework with social scores, surveillance, medical compliance requirements, and rationing (e.g., one beef burger per month, eating insects otherwise), with freedoms tied to algorithmic chip-based token allocation rather than fiat money.
“There is no fourth cycle. There is no bond market to create it. They go back to the beginning and we start again with CBDC's, UBI, lots of write offs, lots of renegotiated pension deals. you must comply with so social scores da da da take any medical interventions and then if you do your push-ups the chip in your arm will let you get so many tokens and you can buy your once a month beef burger uh in between your locust food.”
People jumped into silver too early in the current gold bull market because they remembered past cycles where silver outperformed gold in the final stages; but the gold-to-silver ratio will extend to 170+ (from current ~90) in this cycle because it is much larger and longer than prior cycles, and because institutional capital accumulates gold (storage constraints for large amounts) while the banking cartel keeps silver cheap for industrial use.
“people have pivoted too strong to silver too soon. Everybody goes, 'Oh, I know this movie. I know this movie.' And silver wins much more in the end. And they rush into silver. This is going to be a far larger extended cycle. So if we go to the gold silver ratio, um I was just mentioning it. We feel um that in actual fact silver ratio is going to extend right the way into the 170s.”
In the current cycle, gold could briefly correct even as equities fall (e.g., gold corrects from $8,000 to $3,000 while Dow falls to lower absolute levels), but gold still has lower beta in downside moves than equities, making it the superior defensive asset.
“Gold could correct back down to 3,000 and silver could fall to 22 in, you know, the whole world's ending another you know what uh and who who knows what what's coming. The point of the matter is you'll be better off it has a lower beta in the downside owning the yellow stuff.”
The EU is preparing for systemic collapse through parallel system implementation; a digital euro and CBDC are scheduled for October rollout to allow governments to migrate citizens to a new system before letting the old one 'fall down' completely.
“So the EU is in a terrible state and now has to spend on in investment. And in fact uh whilst I've just shown you the Dixie on this chart, we've actually it's probably best to get the German one up, but we've called on all the major debt markets...which is why the CBDC and the digital euro is due to come out in October. they were already running wanting to get the parallel system running parallel running uh and up and start migrating people so that they can let the all fall down all fall down.”
The COVID-19 event created a shooting star in the Dow/Gold ratio (22 oz, Dec 2022 nadir at 12 oz), and now the ratio is at a 'perfect double top' around 12 oz again; this double top will be resolved by going below 1 oz, possibly to 0.5 oz or lower.
“Um, and we then had a bit of a rally. We had the CV19 event. Shooting star there at 2245. That's as low as you went. It was 12. We are now back up and over. It's a perfect double top, by the way. And you are now in the spiller phase of a double top. That ends for me, I think, at half or below. But you certainly, in my best guess, high probability for going below one.”
In March 2025 or later, the digital euro will launch as a parallel system to allow gradual migration before the old system collapses; this is a controlled demolition where CBDCs will coexist with legacy fiat before a hard reset to a token-based system with programmable money and social control built in.
“which is why the CBDC and the digital euro is due to come out in October. they were already running wanting to get the parallel system running parallel running uh and up and start migrating people so that they can let the all fall down all fall down.”
A 'double top' pattern appeared in the Dow/gold ratio around 2021-2024, with the current price near the previous peak, indicating that breaking below the pattern represents the beginning of a major, multi-year downtrend in equities relative to gold.
“We are now back up and over. It's a perfect double top, by the way. And you are now in the spiller phase of a double top. That ends for me, I think, at half or below. But you certainly, in my best guess, high probability for going below one.”
Trump's aggressive rhetoric toward the EU (Vance lecturing EU members, talk of annexing Greenland/Canada) is 'blonnie'—posturing to test where 'low-hanging fruit' exists; America is in 'scavenge mode' because the debt market broke and it can no longer afford defense spending for Europe.
“So all this bully boy um and Vance being rude in Europe and Trump being dismissive of the EU, which is part of what your question is about. um and other action including that involving China which you also just asked about uh and the talk about Greenland and Denmark and Canada as 51st state. All of this uh blonnie I call it, it's kind of the Irish word for shooting the breeze in the pub and um talking a bit of BS. Uh is all part of testing the water to try to see where there's any lowhanging fruit. Why are they suddenly in scavenge mode and throwing their weight around? Again, I take you back to the core principle. The debt market broke. They can't afford what they already doing.”
There is quadrillions of debt and hundreds of trillions to fit into a $22 trillion gold market cap; the deleveraging cannot happen quickly and will occur in stages with big advances, making the gold cycle longer and more complex than typical boom-bust.
“There's so much leverage that has to be unwound. and it's all got to squeeze in an ever growing uh market cap. You can't just chuck it all into gold. There's I think there's quadrillions of debts. There's hundreds and hundreds of trillions to all fit into a 22 trillion market cap. Uh it's not going to happen that quick. It's going to happen in stages, but you're going to get big big advances.”
Hunt and his team were early in calling single-digit oil and the end of the bond cycle, which everyone thought was crazy but which has become consensus wisdom—similarly, his current calls on the extended gold-silver ratio and massive reset are unconventional but will also eventually become accepted as the macro situation develops.
“It was the same for us when we called singledigit oil and the turn in the bond markets. It's a crazy thing to say it's the end of the bond cycle when we said it. Now it's commonly accepted wisdom. It was a crazy thing to say singledigit oil and you should be going long gold short oil when we said it...We didn't know what was going to be the story. We just got the technical trade. That's why we earlier than most people.”
The most recent Call (late 2020) to 'peak bonds' and a sell-off was validated by subsequent events—treasuries have indeed sold off dramatically from the 0.33% low—proving Hunt's macrotechnical analysis was ahead of consensus and validating his current equally contrarian calls on gold, silver, and the carry trade.
“when we gave the call this is peak bonds and this is a sell-off”
The US has passed 'peak America'—a function of abusing the base layer of money-borrowing into existence—and this is causing a controlled demolition of American economic power, ending decades of bullying and unilateral dominance.
“And it is a controlled demolition. In other words, it was always the intention to take bad stuff, get toxic, um, be a big tough man for a while, and then you burn your wick out. And that's kind of what's happened. Uh, they didn't think about longevity. Uh, they bullied, they lent on bullying too much, and now they don't have the power they once have.”
The tariff talk and trade war rhetoric are theater designed to blame Trump for the collapse while obscuring the real cause: the broken debt system and exhausted monetary policy tools; tariffs are neither the cause nor the solution, but will be scapegoated by mainstream media and elites to avoid accountability for decades of mismanagement.
“that's my take on tariffs. That's actually the theater of and it's been, you know, personalized. Donald Trump's breaking America or Donald Trump saving America depending which side you're on, left, right. I have I have no side in that argument. They're both awful. Um, but the the po the key part of it is he he's going to be blamed. Tariffs are going to be blamed. You'll be this full guy, this actor, whatever the case may be. The point of the matter is America got to this position through multiple decisions and ongoing negligence”
The current cycle is the end of a full three-cycle pattern, and you will not get another chance after this; the leverage unwind is going to be the most thorough ever, leaving no options for reflation or QE, and overshooting is guaranteed as the emotional unwind of leverage is more violent than the accumulation phase.
“This is one full cycle. You start again... Ever bigger pumps lead to ever greater dumps. That was 0.99. You will overshoot emotionally. The leverage, the unwind is going to be the most thorough that there is no fourth cycle.”
Silver will not be a good investment until the gold-silver ratio reverses and breaks below 75, at which point the speaker will shift from 75% gold / 25% silver allocation to 50/50, and then to 100% silver when the ratio breaks below 75 down to the downside—trying to front-run this transition is a trading mistake that will cause losses.
“Phase one is over is when the gold silver ratio reverses and it's confirmed when it breaks 75 down to the downside. We are going in the opposite direction. You should continue to play what you see and that is stacking gold... So, if that's up here and we've just run the 171 and we get that slam down like that right here, I go from buying 75% gold, 25% silver to going um 50/50. And when we break 75, I go 100% silver uh to the downside”
Tesla trades at a 91 P/E ratio despite 90+ percent of its revenue coming from selling cars, with other revenue streams (Starship, autonomous taxis, energy) being heavily speculative and unproven, making Tesla massively overvalued relative to its proven cash generation.
“Tesla's sitting on a 91 PE by the way. That's insane. It's still 90 90 plus of its revenue is still cars. It's all this fluff about Mars and taxi companies without drivers and making gazillions and pricing in all these future profits. None of that's come. He's got a cyber truck. It's a lemon. Can't be sold in the EU. Weighs over three and a half tons.”
Insiders are selling stocks while retail investors trained by multiple stimulus-driven recoveries are buying the dip; this is the moment where retail will 'destroy themselves' because the music will finally stop ('you only need to lose once') unlike the previous cycles that recovered.
“All the insiders are buying stock. Oh, it's only retail that's buying the dip that have been trained multiple collapses to do that just for this one moment where they'll destroy themselves. Um, and you know, you keep ponzing, you keep going double on black, double on black, double on black or red or whichever it is uh in roulette and you only need to lose once and you lose it all.”
Hunt called the Euro-Swiss franc short in 2009, which prefigured the PIGS crisis of 2010; his entire career has been built on making big macro trades that capture systemic transitions; the current situation is the biggest macro trade ever.
“those things where we were involved in calling the Euro Swiss Frank short in 2009 that foretold the pigs crisis of 2010. That was the name it was given. Um, so my life of economic history is made up in trades, big macro trades. Um, and we're, this is the biggest of them all that we're witnessing.”
Germany was denied the right to military defense post-WWII but has had American soldiers stationed on its territory; Germany never received a peace treaty (unlike Japan, which signed the Treaty on the Battleship), making it technically still occupied.
“Europe should have been protecting itself, but they said Germany couldn't have weapons after World War II. you know, they wanted to cut their testicles off entirely. So, you know, you know, my father was a glider pilot. He flew with ex-Mishi pilots in South Africa in the mountains as gliders. They weren't allowed to power planes. So, that's why they're in sail plane gliding, you know, uh for many many years. So, I mean, you did that to a nation that has no defense and you put American soldiers in Germany. Uh again, I refer people to the our Profa chat. Um, Germany never even got a peace agreement. It's still an occupied country with American soldiers in it.”
Tesla trades at a 91 PE ratio despite 90% of its revenue coming from car sales; it is priced as if future moonshot promises (Mars, autonomous taxis, etc.) have already been realized, none of which have materialized and the Cybertruck is a 'lemon' that cannot be sold in the EU.
“Tesla's sitting on a 91 PE by the way. That's insane. It's still 90 90 plus of its revenue is still cars. It's all this fluff about Mars and taxi companies without drivers and making gazillions and pricing in all these future profits. None of that's come. He's got a cyber truck. It's a lemon. Can't be sold in the EU. Weighs over three and a half tons.”
The Dollar Index (Dixie) has collapsed below 100, and while it could have a spike in a debt-based correction, the overall trend is toward currency devaluation and higher FX volatility as debt markets reset.
“smashed down and it's actually below uh 100. Now, don't get me wrong, this is volatility and the dollar can actually have a super spike eventually potentially uh on a debt based correct uh correction.”
The current situation parallels a poker player doubling down repeatedly on black/red at roulette until they lose once and lose everything; retail investors trained by prior recoveries are positioned to lose catastrophically when this cycle doesn't allow recovery.
“you keep ponzing, you keep going double on black, double on black, double on black or red or whichever it is uh in roulette and you only need to lose once and you lose it all.”
Western nations are in terminal decline and the speaker advises people to consider not being domiciled in Western countries; non-Western nations are positioned better for the reset due to lower debt levels and production-based economic models.
“I fear for the Western nations and I'm glad not to be doiciled in any Western nation and I encourage others to think of that as a concept.”
Quantitative easing in 2009-2012 marked the beginning of gold's run as early observers recognized 'money proliferation and devaluation' and shifted to gold, which then outperformed until COVID, when the ratio hit 2.245 (lowest point).
“Quantitive easing, the early people said, 'Oh, this smells like money proliferation and devaluation. I'll hold something that doesn't get smaller every time I look at it.' Um, and we then had a bit of a rally. We had the CV19 event. Shooting star there at 2245. That's as low as you went. It was 12.”
The Federal Reserve was introduced in 1913, immediately followed by the Roaring 20s (1920s boom) that then collapsed into the Great Depression (1930s); the ratio went from 18.6 ounces of gold per Dow basket to 1.88 oz, showing the deflationary bust.
“They were introduced in 1913. Roaring 20 straight away. What do they do? They turn the turbo juice up, smash down into a depression. You went that 18.6 ounces bought you a basket of the Dow down to 1.88.”
Boomer demographic is inverted (more older people than younger), and welfare, Medicaid, and Medicare costs are rising; combined with unfunded liabilities estimated actuarially at ~600 trillion, this creates an impossible fiscal situation that likely motivated the early retirement of elderly populations during COVID-19.
“your boomer demographic which is like an inverted pyramid welfare Medicaid and Medicare are all going uh up everything's going up uh the unfunded those were the primary unfunded liabilities which many have estimated actuarily could be 600 trillion and it is part of the reason why I think we had CV19 and the first people were the elderly to be uh to be let's just say retired early”
Germany and other European nations should have been permitted to rearm after WWII but were deliberately prevented from doing so ('they wanted to cut their testicles off entirely'), forcing them into permanent dependence on US defense and maintaining the post-war power structure.
“Europe should have been protecting itself, but they said Germany couldn't have weapons after World War II. you know, they wanted to cut their testicles off entirely. So, you know, you know, my father was a glider pilot. He flew with ex-Mishi pilots in South Africa in the mountains as gliders. They weren't allowed to power planes. So, that's why they're in sail plane gliding, you know, uh for many many years.”
Statist tokens (government-backed cryptocurrencies or central bank digital currencies) will eventually 'do exceedingly well' as the monetary system transition occurs; this represents a longer-term opportunity after the gold and commodity cycles play out.
“We also cover crypto so you can follow the crypto sniper and there will be movements there. We're talking a lot about gold right now, but uh longer term the statist one uh tokens will do exceedingly well.”
The Hunt volatility funnel trading method is designed to identify when volatility is expanding or contracting, allowing traders to position for directional moves; this is the technical framework Hunt uses for macro calls on markets like treasuries, oil, precious metals, and currency pairs.
“a trader and technical analyst with 30 years of experience and the creator of the Hunt volatility funnel trading method”
Francis Hunt runs the Market Sniper newsletter and YouTube channel, offers free consultations and a bookable community for investors interested in his macro trading views and precious metals positioning during the reset.
“Three primary goals I have for everybody I serve, help them build more wealth, help them preserve wealth, which is a slightly different thing, defend what you have, and within that, buy yourself more freedoms and optionalities for what is going to be a reset uh cycle of events... on YouTube and you can follow and see us in there. We have a minieries you can book it's totally free. You'll get our newsletter with that as well.”
The dollar will eventually have a 'super spike' on the debt-based correction as capital flees global assets into dollars; current dollar weakness is volatility within a longer trend, and volatility in FX will increase as debt markets destabilize.
“Now, don't get me wrong, this is volatility and the dollar can actually have a super spike eventually potentially uh on a debt based correct uh correction. Again, we've had actually quite a long-term period of relative low volatility in FX relative on the month monthly chart. um we could see a major change in that too. So increased volatility on FX as debt markets.”
European debt yields are rising (German 10-year from 2.5% to 4%, French to 4.6%, Dutch to ~4%) because Europe must now borrow massively for military spending and social welfare for new immigrants; this is only the beginning of yield increases.
“we've called for Germany that's actually normally at a 2.5 quite low risk of default percentage to actually trade up...they're going to have to borrow even more. Never mind all the new immigrants they're getting that they have to pay welfare on. they're going to have to borrow even more to start accumulating military aspects...yields going up on European debt which is why you've had a little bit of cranky strength in the euro not because euro is in great shape and its prospects are magnificent”
The euro's 'strength' against the dollar (rising from 1.02 to 1.13) is illusory and driven only by interest rate differentials, not fundamental strength; the euro faces the same structural problems as the dollar and will weaken as European yields continue rising.
“we actually see yields going up on European debt which is why you've had a little bit of cranky strength in the euro not because euro is in great shape and its prospects are magnificent just be just because of interest rate dynamics for now...You can see the eurousd if we do that um has actually been pretty strong. It's kind of a bit like the inversion of the dollar index”
Hunt's DCA (dollar-cost-averaging) allocation strategy shifts from 75% gold / 25% silver at current levels, to 50/50 when ratio hits 171, to 100% silver when ratio breaks below 75 (confirming the reversal).
“So, if that's up here and we've just run the 171 and we get that slam down like that right here, I go from buying 75% gold, 25% silver to going um 50/50. And when we break 75, I go 100% silver uh to the downside, which will be somewhere around here.”
This is 'the juicy bit' of the long miniseries (economic history)—where all plot lines are wrapping up in the final episodes; the current period is a 'quickening' with contagion and systemic collapse, but also real opportunities for life-changing wealth building.
“I've lived my whole life watching this economic system, reading this book, and we're getting to the juicy bit, you know, where you've watched a long miniseries with 15, 20 episodes, and now a whole bunch of action and all the plot lines are getting wrapped up in the last two episodes. That's where we are right now. This is a quickening. Do not take this lightly. What's going on? There's contagion coming. I expect, as I say, hedge funds, banks, and for that, you need defense and attack. There's going to be real opportunities to build life-changing wealth, not just for you and but also for your children.”
Gold is without doubt the best asset to own currently; Hunt is not yet ready to overweight mining stocks and holds some miners and silver, but gold is the clear leader in this cycle.
“gold is without doubt the best thing you can have right now. I'm not ready to go overweight the miners. I have some miners and I have some silver.”
Hunt's goal is to help people build wealth through commodity trading, preserve it through gold accumulation, and buy more 'optionalities' and freedoms for the upcoming reset cycle; this is what his Market Sniper community focuses on.
“Three primary goals I have for everybody I serve, help them build more wealth, help them preserve wealth, which is a slightly different thing, defend what you have, and within that, buy yourself more freedoms and optionalities for what is going to be a reset uh cycle of events.”
Buying one gram of gold at ~$100 is affordable and should not be an impediment to holding gold; if someone cannot afford even $100, that is an income problem separate from the metals allocation question.
“Listen, gold's affordable. If you buy one gram, it's $100. If you can't afford $100, think about, you know, what you're doing for income. Uh that's a different problem and we can talk about that separately.”
Biden and Trump represent different theatrical sides of the same agenda (left foot, right foot of the same bird), both advancing the same geopolitical objectives through different rhetorical frames regarding Russia, Ukraine, and US hegemony—the policy outcome is consistent regardless of the occupant of the presidency.
“this is how they just move different aspects of their agenda uh all along it's a left foot right foot but they all belong to the same bird uh in terms of where it's walking.”
No other macro technical analyst is making the call that the gold-silver ratio will extend to 170+ or potentially exceed previous highs; this is a controversial and minority view, but it is the correct interpretation of the structural dynamics of the collapse.
“There isn't a gold bug telling you this right now that the gold silver ratio is could quite possibly take out the previous high. Never mind going to 170 or 200... It's our opinion that not enough people, you see, no one's really a macrotechnical analyst. No one makes these calls.”
Gold is affordable at $100 per gram (current entry point), and those claiming silver is more affordable are making an excuse for poverty; if someone cannot afford $100 in gold, their income problem is more pressing than asset allocation.
“Listen, gold's affordable. If you buy one gram, it's $100. If you can't afford $100, think about, you know, what you're doing for income. Uh that's a different problem and we can talk about that separately.”