Banks Are Hiding This: This Isn’t a Recession… It’s a Reset I Francis Hunt

Ray Dalio is investing $320 million of Bridgewater's assets into gold because he understands that the 40-year bull market in bonds (bonds as a reserve asset) is finished and is correctly concerned about the transition to a new reserve asset regime.

“Ray Dalio $320 million Bridgewater investment into gold. What do you make of that? Ray's consistent actually in fairness to him...Ray Dalio at least is consistent and he's buying a reserve asset uh and he's very concerned about the bond reserve asset that's finished its 40-year um period of being a reserve asset.”

The massive amount of debt refinancing rejections (42-36% of applications) and the absence of debt origination in the market indicate that lenders no longer want to originate new debt instruments and existing debt assets are devaluing as long rates rise.

“we referred to the massive amount of rejections on refinance applications in the states. 42% 36%. Nobody wants to originate a debt instrument asset anymore by borrow by letting people borrow and at the same time the existing assets on the long which are on long debt are actually we've got the curve steepening and and the rates are going up.”

Refinance application rejection rates in the United States have reached 42% and 36% respectively, and nobody wants to originate debt instruments anymore because existing long-dated debt assets are devaluing as the yield curve steepens and rates go up.

“we referred to the massive amount of rejections on refinance applications in the states. 42% 36%. Nobody wants to originate a debt instrument asset anymore by borrow by letting people borrow and at the same time the existing assets on the long which are on long debt are actually we've got the curve steepening and and the rates are going up.”

The recent low CPI reading of 2.3% near the Fed's 2% target is misleading because it was artificially suppressed by Trump's tariff embargo on containers (a mini-lockdown effect) and Saudi Arabia increasing oil supply, while underlying demand destruction, record bankruptcies, and credit deterioration across automotive, housing, and credit cards are at new highs.

“in a recessionary environment where goods haven't been provided where there's a downturn in demand we're hearing about record bankruptcies in the states record uh levels of they call it the 90day in bad state of repair credit card automotive and housing all at literally uh new highs”

Western nations' debt markets are universally in a chronic state of revaluation (rates rising) with only possible exceptions in Switzerland; this is the foundation of finance and determines everything downstream.

“It's the foundation of finance debt markets. And the debt markets universally in the western nations uh with the possible exception of uh the Swiss as I've mentioned already are in a a chronic state of revaluation. The rates going up.”

Stagflation (slower economic growth with higher inflation) is the basic scenario going forward, contrary to mainstream views that low CPI readings prove stagflation isn't happening.

“Our basic scenario is stagflationary. Uh and many people have come back at us and said, "Oh, but look the low CPI number."”

The Fed is already the buyer of last resort at current interest rates and is providing buyside liquidity when no other buyer exists; they are already functioning as described in the 'toxic bank' scenario, not as a theoretical future condition.

“The Fed is already having to provide buyside liquidity at current interest rates. If they cut, how much more buyside liquidity to push the asset up even higher are they going to have to provide?”

Dockyard savings (government deficit reduction efforts) are miniscule in the big time frame and represent only penny-wise, pound-foolish cost-cutting while the real problem is massive structural government over-expenditure.

“the doggy savings that you've been told about are minuscule. Uh, and if you look at it in a big time frame curve, there's no real meaningful adjustment. Not that I'm going to say if any efficiency is a bad thing and culling a lot of the bulb products, but this is nickel and dimeming. It's it's, you know, it's saving it's it's pence saving 10% or whatever it is. Pence wise and pound foolish.”

Everything that is leveraged—housing, cars, everything you buy, stores, retail—is going to collapse because debt is being devalued and long-term debt percentages are going up across the board, leading to a right-sizing of the demand curve and global depression.

“Everything that is leveraged, everything that has any form of leverage, housing, cars, everything you buy, stores, it's going to collapse, retail, uh you're going to have a right sizing of the demand curve once debt uh gets devalued. And this is huge. This is global depression material.”

Everything that is leveraged, including housing, cars, retail stores, and consumer goods, will collapse as a result of debt devaluation and the rightsizing of the demand curve once debt gets devalued, constituting global depression material.

“Everything that is leveraged, everything that has any form of leverage, housing, cars, everything you buy, stores, it's going to collapse, retail, uh you're going to have a right sizing of the demand curve once debt uh gets devalued. And this is huge. This is global depression material.”

A macro bull market in precious metals is occurring because there is a search for a reserve asset that will not collapse like debt, and Hunt cannot be more emphatic about this opportunity.

“There's a search for a reserve asset that's not going to collapse like debt. It's a macro bull market uh for precious metals. And I can't be more ardent about that.”

The global debt market is estimated at 300-400 trillion or potentially 500 trillion, but despite the massive market cap, it is not actually a liquid market and is dependent on Fed provision of bid-side liquidity.

“the interesting point on when we talk about treasuries is everybody realizes the market cap of debt is massive. You I had someone I don't even think people can quantify it, but you've had a number of 330 trillion being thrown around recently for all the world's debt. 400 was a number I heard as well. So I'm not going to stick my name to any number, but let's just say 300 to 400, maybe it's 500, who knows? The point of the matter is such a large market cap, but everyone assumes by that that it's incredibly liquid market. And unfortunately, I'm here to tell you that it isn't.”

Currency devaluation is not currently obvious because all currencies are synchronized 'lepers in the leper colony,' so to see real devaluation you must compare dollars not to euros but to gold.

“The only reason most won't notice it. We already it's already happening to a degree now is we compare dollars to euros. We all synchronize lepers in the leper colony. You've got to compare it to gold.”

Negative yielding bonds mean that Warren Buffett's criticism of gold for not paying a yield becomes inverted: not paying a yield becomes a benefit, making zero-yielding gold cheap relative to negative-yielding bonds.

“Buffett criticized uh gold for not paying a yield. When you're paying a negative yield, not paying a yield becomes a feature uh a benefit. Uh and that's why I say even though there's a pullback right now in gold, go and look at the Swissy gold chart.”

15% of the S&P 500 companies were borrowing to pay dividends because the cost of borrowing was lower than the cost of equity ownership, but now as long-term rates rise and deleveraging accelerates, these highly leveraged balance sheets will become toxic.

“you've got corporates at one point I had a stat I don't think it's an up-to-date stat 15% of the S&P 500 was borrowing to pay dividends. Why? Because at the time the cost of borrowing was much lower than the cost associated to equity ownership. So, um, now imagine once you start deleveraging and the long-term rates are going like that, you're going to have, uh, equities that are going to be sitting with highly leveraged balance sheets.”

The global debt market is enormous (300-500 trillion estimated) but has minimal liquidity despite its size; it functions like a crypto token where one owner (the Fed) holds 95% and is artificially pumping the price, while the remaining 5% has no real liquidity underneath.

“everybody realizes the market cap of debt is massive. You I had someone I don't even think people can quantify it, but you've had a number of 330 trillion being thrown around recently for all the world's debt. 400 was a number I heard as well. So I'm not going to stick my name to any number, but let's just say 300 to 400, maybe it's 500, who knows? The point of the matter is such a large market cap, but everyone assumes by that that it's incredibly liquid market. And unfortunately, I'm here to tell you that it isn't.”

The economic collapse will unfold slowly ('little by little by little') until suddenly it all happens at once, like a bankruptcy that creeps then accelerates; the public won't see it coming even though the conditions are visible.

“It feels like it's a slow death like very slow like prolonged like there are some write-offs here. There's a commercial building that's being written off there or sold for a dollar instead of 500 million. But it's not happening all at once. Like Andy Shackman says little by little by little by little and then all at once...oh yeah I'm losing money here but then all of a sudden I'm I'm broke.”

Oil is a multiplier in inflation affecting everything (delivery, travel, business, commercial, holidays, packaging) and when Saudis suppress supply through increased production, they are deliberately suppressing inflation to maintain the inflation tax and purchasing power in their assets.

“Oil is a multiplier in inflation. It's in everything as you're well aware. Delivery, you name it. Uh travel, business, commercial, holidays, uh everything you buy, everything you do, packaging”

The Fed will likely not cut rates, and if it does cut they will need to reverse very quickly, because the long end continues to rise and the Fed is already providing buyer-of-last-resort liquidity at current rates.

“I don't think they're going to be able to cut. Uh, I think the long end continues to do what that does. Uh, I think you're going to have more Trump pal Mark 2 moments. If they do cut, it would be incredibly small. They may have to reverse it very shortly thereafter. Um, I they don't have the room to move that everybody thinks they do.”

When comparing bonds globally, all have unfavorable risk/reward: either yields are too low to compensate for risk of default (long bonds) or you get negative real returns (short bonds), making bonds a poor investment anywhere.

“bonds isn't the game. It's a crap product in no matter where you buy it. Um you're either not getting paid enough yield or your risk of default isn't fully priced in...the long ends continue to price up uh because the risk of default is far more critical and likely to happen. So bonds is the worst investment anywhere you do it in my opinion. long short end any nation stay out”

Major short sellers Druckenmiller and Tudor Jones disclosed that they have been building large short positions in long-term bonds since at least November of the previous year, and now that this information is public, retail investors are beginning to follow suit, creating a flow out of equities and into other assets.

“everybody realizes Draen Miller and Tudtor Jones have been short and have been building a short position that they now disclosing in November last year. They probably did it the whole year getting their positions on now everybody thinks okay maybe we should be following suit. So the natural flow is often equities to start.”

Swiss short-end yields (1-2 year bonds) have just dipped negative again, signaling distress where investors are prepared to accept guaranteed loss of money in real terms relative to inflation in exchange for perceived safety.

“the short end first of all. So it's one and two years that have just dipped negative again and that is a sign of distress. So what that means is really afraid people are prepared to guaranteed accept less money back uh in one or two years time than they give you.”

The 10-year Treasury market has experienced real sudden fear moves and gaps with no developed bid stack underneath, forcing the Fed to provide liquidity to prevent market dysfunction.

“There's been a number of gaps when I look at the 10-year on it when people have tried to sell. There's been some real sudden fear moves. There is not a big developed uh stack bid stack underneath that and the Fed has to provide that liquidity when no one is buying it. Even at today's rates”

A Danish pension fund manager threw a tantrum and announced they will stop investing in the US and only invest domestically, signaling capital flight from US assets.

“we had a Danish pension fund manager like throwing a tantrum said no we're done investing in the US for example only domestically.”

The Trump administration is using tariffs and international agreements to shift the global financial and geopolitical center from Silicon Valley and America to the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE) by concentrating tech infrastructure (Neurolink moving to Dubai), sports franchises (football, rugby), and entertainment hubs there, while compensating the Saudis for keeping oil prices low to manage inflation.

“The Saudis are in cahoots. They will be compensated for doing not for-p profolit selling. Uh and they are being compensated in many many many ways. They're becoming the entertainment hub. Well, the the Middle East, the Arab Emirates, let's not be too specific. You're getting all the football there. Uh as I was joking with you, they don't play rugby and they're already down for after Australia to host the next rugby world cup in the desert somewhere.”

When Trump tested the line of dollarization (initiating tariffs and weakening the dollar), markets delivered a 'very hard slap on the face' with bond market collapse, rate spikes, and dollar weakness, which frightened Trump into backing down and normalizing, but this was only a brief preview of future scenarios that will repeat and intensify.

“the bond market collapsed rates shot up and the dollar went down. That was the first time that ever happened meaningfully in the US. By the way, it fulfilled the prediction that we've made when the same thing happened in the UK... it was earth shattering and uh very much shook the American uh wedding party, let's just say. And at that point while that happened you saw a flight out of dollar and a flight out of treasuries and that was a very very short sharp slap on the face uh for Donald Trump which he later said oh I wasn't afraid about the bond market which I interpreted to mean he was afraid about the bond market”

The stock market is a distraction; the real dominating market is bonds, which must be understood first to predict equities, and long-term stock market weakness is inevitable because corporations are highly leveraged, many are borrowing to pay dividends, and as long-term rates rise, highly leveraged balance sheets will force equity devaluation.

“The most retail thing is to over fascinate on stocks. I'm not actually strongly anything short medium-term on stocks. Long-term I'm the most interesting market is the bonds. the bonds is the dominator and the leads.”

Crypto is being treated as a risk-on asset with messianic potential for a 'new system' and is waiting in the wings to replace the current debt-based system; it will get spotlight moment as investors search for a new reserve asset after gold's already strong run.

“there's a much smaller market cap but there's some flows in there um and that's what and there's more of a risk on asset sorry to jump in it is a risk-on asset yeah it is a risk-on asset but it's being treated slightly differently because it's time as a future waiting in the wings in waiting for the new system is now coming it's going to get a spotlight appearance where it's a has a bit of Midas feel about it. It has a messiahic moment.”

Bonds are a universally poor investment 'at any price' because they either don't pay enough yield or the default risk is not properly priced in, making bonds the worst investment anywhere you buy them regardless of duration or nation.

“the smart will really say bonds isn't the game. It's a crap product in no matter where you buy it. Um you're either not getting paid enough yield or your risk of default isn't fully priced in. That's why we're seeing the long ends continue to price up uh because the risk of default is far more critical and likely to happen. So bonds is the worst investment anywhere you do it in my opinion. long short end any nation stay out”

The previous Fed chairs (Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen) allowed government overspending and maintained artificially low interest rates that created asset price hyperinflation, and this distorted system now must be reversed from 'day into night' with everything flipped on its head, causing asset price devaluation.

“he is the guy holding the bag for Greenspan, Bernani, uh Yelen and all those that came before him that allowed government over expenditure. Uh ran too lower interest rates and ran an asset price hyperinflation just because we globalized and we had low consumer inflation. There was still inflation. the liquidity just found its way into assets on debt. So now we actually have to reverse that day into a night which is everything gets flipped on its head and it's deeply unpleasant.”

The bond market is the dominator and the lead market, not stocks, so in deleveraging scenarios the stock market eventually follows debt market dynamics downward.

“The most interesting market is the bonds. the bonds is the dominator and the leads. So when when someone will ask you about a stock uh market, I say in due course deleveraging takes its course on the stock market too, which is down.”

German long-term rates will go higher and reach 4%, and Australian rates are hitting 6%, and Australia will not glide through the current crisis as it did during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, so housing will be chronically affected globally.

“I'm going to be showing today on our well tomorrow it is my speech uh that the German long rate is going to go higher and is going to go to 4%. I'm going to show that the Australians hitting for 6%. Now, Australia glided through the GFC on their property market. I'm saying not this time. So, housing is going to be chronically affected.”

Banks are profiting massively from the uncertainty and volatility being created, with record trading gains across major banks in the last quarter, while insiders including Nancy Pelosi, Marie Greene, and Middle East investors engage in insider trading and front-running of policy announcements.

“They're actually profiting massively from the uncertainty that's been created. I'd imagine the trading rooms are there certainly seems to be a cacocracy of uh insider trading. I mean, I'm posting on Twitter, best trader in the world, number one, best trader in the world, number two. And we have Nancy Pelosi, we even have Marie Green. Uh they buying into Palentia just before they go up 60%.”

US equity market caps will lose share to emerging market indices globally, with growth visible in Singapore and other capital formation nations, as capital flows rotate away from US markets.

“and you're going to see other market caps. I see indices going up in emerging markets. I see it in Singapore. I see it in other capital formation nations. America is going to lose market cap to the rest of the world in equity.”

Rushing into equities in the current environment is like wearing 1980s fashion and leg warmers to Jane Fonda classes: outdated and wrong, because US market caps relative to the world will chronically decline as valuations deflate and other markets gain relative share.

“You're coming out in your 80s fashion. you're wearing your leg warmers and going to Jane Fonda classes if you're still rushing into equities right now. That's my take because the PE if you look at the market caps of the US relative to the rest of the world, my net opinion is those relative market caps are going to come chronically down in America”

The Fed is paralyzed like a rabbit caught between two fences—any action it takes triggers a wire and the alarm goes off, so policy decisions become about blame allocation rather than economic management.

“it's a bit like a paralyzed rabbit caught between two fences. um they damned which direction they move. They're going to trip the wire and the you know the limpid mind goes off. So it's almost like frozen in the headlights right here because then at least I can't be blamed for something going an action I take being blamed. It's it's kind of it becomes a blame allocation for the situation.”

Bank health is being entirely ignored despite the fact that commercial banks are the originators of money and with consumers, states, municipalities, and governments all bankrupted, banks have no creditworthy borrowers and will face massive asset devaluation, making this a critical blind spot in market discourse.

“But everything that does that is the amazing word that no one's mentioning in all of this is the word bank. Nobody's speaking about bank health in this environment. You've got crush consumer. You've got defaulting credit in just about every category. you're going to have a contracting h uh housing market and yet nobody's talking bank. That makes me distinctly nervous because that's that's the where the spotlight's not being shown and those are the areas I worry about.”

Finance is about to become the most important part of people's lives, either as a tool for building wealth or as a destructive force that impoverishes them; the majority will be impoverished by the collapse, while a minority who correctly position themselves will become significantly wealthier.

“finance is about to become the most important part of your world. Uh, or you just going to be hit by the tsunami and you're never going to know what hit you.”

The gravitas of the coming debt collapse and financial system transition is far larger than investors and the public realize; the magnitude is '10-scale earthquake' hitting the entire planet, but most people react with indifference ('What time's we going down to the pub?').

“The gravitas of this is far larger than people seem to realize. It It feels like everybody is a zombie. It's kind of like I'm saying a RTOR scale 10 earthquake is going to hit the entire planet and everybody's going, "Yeah, okay. Uh what time's we going down to the pub?"”

If the Fed cuts rates, it will have to provide even more buyside liquidity to push bond prices up, forcing it to become a 'toxic bank with a bottomless pit' of buying—essentially a permanent buyer of the entire debt ponzi at unlimited cost.

“If they cut, how much more buyside liquidity to push the asset up even higher are they going to have to provide? They're going to have to turn into toxic bank with a bottomless pit of buying and being the bag holder on the entire debt ponzi.”

Current stock market volatility and liquidity inject is just 'chop and volatility,' and investors should focus on debt markets, housing, and jobs, with unemployment being the final shoe to drop, as evidenced by Microsoft laying off high-salary workers.

“right now when we have an absolute fear moment brought about by the tariff tantrum with a subsequent hypernormalization reactionary moment. This is just chop and volatility and as I say focus on the debt markets focus on housing focus on jobs. Unemployment is the final shoe that drops with this and we're already seeing Microsoft letting go a lot of people.”

Nobody is speaking about bank health despite crush consumer demand, defaulting credit across every category, and a contracting housing market, which is the most concerning gap in market discourse because that is where the greatest risk lies.

“everything that does that is the amazing word that no one's mentioning in all of this is the word bank. Nobody's speaking about bank health in this environment. You've got crush consumer. You've got defaulting credit in just about every category. you're going to have a contracting h uh housing market and yet nobody's talking bank. That makes me distinctly nervous because that's that's the where the spotlight's not being shown and those are the areas I worry about.”

Major corporations like Coca-Cola are worse companies than they were 15 years ago (less revenue, less earnings, more debt, more buybacks) yet trading at 2.5x higher valuations due to mathematics inverting under leverage, and this is an illustration of broader equity market dysfunction.

“I once saw there was a very good article that compared Coca-Cola to Coca-Cola a decade and a half ago. And in actual fact, it does less revenue, less earnings, loaded up on way more debt on buybacks, um, and actually is a lesser company, but was trading at two and a half times what it was 15 years ago.”

Warren Buffett has stepped down because he is signaling that his historical success was tied to American exceptionalism and that the future path of Berkshire will need to be internationalized and pessimistic about the US dollar and dollar-denominated assets, but he cannot openly say this without damaging his legacy.

“Warren Buffett uh is stepping down and he chose this year and he spoke very the the words. This is Captain America who said, "You won the lottery by being born in America." This guy has never been a bigger nationalist and patriot in terms of all his financial commentary ever. And he's stepping down and he's admitting that his success is likely to be more internationalist.”

Peak Trump tariff tantrum caused bond market collapse with rates shooting up and the dollar going down simultaneously—the first time this has happened meaningfully in the US—which fulfilled a prediction that was made when the same thing happened in the UK during its pension crisis.

“the key earths shuttering moment came about Kai is when peak Trump tariff tantrum. Um what actually happened is the bond market collapsed rates shot up and the dollar went down. That was the first time that ever happened meaningfully in the US. By the way, it fulfilled the prediction that we've made when the same thing happened in the UK. Something I'll be reminding people in our chat as well with when they had the pension crisis.”

Warren Buffett's stepping down from Berkshire in 2024 and expressing concerns about US debt levels, trade deficits, and dollar valuation represents a pessimistic shift from his traditional 'America won the lottery by being born here' nationalist stance, suggesting his successor will pursue more internationalist investment.

“Warren Buffett uh is stepping down and he's chosen this year and he spoke very the the words. This is Captain America who said, 'You won the lottery by being born in America.' This guy has never been a bigger nationalist and patriot in terms of all his financial commentary ever. And he's stepping down and he's admitting that his success is likely to be more internationalist. And he's expressed concerns about this the state and valuation of the dollar. And he's also made comments about the trade deficit and the overall uh debt levels. So you're you're talking about a man who's signing off more pessimistically than he's ever been by a multiple of about 10 times.”

The recent low CPI reading of 2.3% is misleading because it was caused by Trump's tariff embargo that stopped container shipments (acting like a mini-lockdown) and Saudi Arabia's decision to increase oil supply, both of which temporarily suppress inflation while underlying stagflation conditions persist.

“we had a tariff, Trump's tariff tantrum where essentially he stopped containers. It's almost like mini lockdown... they stopped containers which obviously is going to affect consumption uh and is going to lead to those low uh CPI numbers. More importantly, we had the Saudis decide to increase supply”

Trump is not pursuing 'Make America Great Again' but instead enabling the bleeding out of Silicon Valley's tech dominance and the shift of the tech hub to Dubai and the Middle East, with this representing a geopolitical coronation of the Arab Emirates region's significance.

“I actually think you're seeing the the tech hub that um Silicon Valley once was in part being slowly bled out and Trump is enabling this. So everyone who thinks he's MAGA and make America great should maybe think again because his big pals with the the Saudi Arab Emirates is normalizing this society as the they are seeing it as a coronation in terms of the significance of their region in the area”

Fed chairs Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen allowed government over-expenditure and ran too-low interest rates, creating an asset price hyperinflation that was hidden by low consumer inflation due to globalization, but the liquidity found its way into debt and assets; now the entire leveraged system must be reversed from day to night.

“he is the guy holding the bag for Greenspan, Bernani, uh Yelen and all those that came before him that allowed government over expenditure. Uh ran too lower interest rates and ran an asset price hyperinflation just because we globalized and we had low consumer inflation. There was still inflation. the liquidity just found its way into assets on debt.”

The Fed is not boxed in by economics alone but deliberately frozen by fear of being blamed for triggering the systemic failure, so it remains paralyzed ('like a paralyzed rabbit caught between two fences') regardless of which direction it moves.

“it's a bit like a paralyzed rabbit caught between two fences. um they damned which direction they move. They're going to trip the wire and the you know the limpid mind goes off. So it's almost like frozen in the headlights right here because then at least I can't be blamed for something going an action I take being blamed. It's it's kind of it becomes a blame allocation for the situation.”

The gravitas of the current debt-based collapse is far larger than people realize, with a scale comparable to a 10 Richter scale earthquake hitting the entire planet, yet most people are unfazed and unconcerned.

“The gravitas of this is far larger than people seem to realize. It It feels like everybody is a zombie. It's kind of like I'm saying a RTOR scale 10 earthquake is going to hit the entire planet and everybody's going, 'Yeah, okay. Uh what time's we going down to the pub?'”

The searchlight is intentionally not being put on banks' asset deterioration because banks sit at the table with central authorities and political leadership, creating a coordinated blindness to their vulnerabilities.

“That's a massive question. And it's because the search light is intentionally not being put on that focus. They'll quite happily talk about how wreck wreck consumers are, how wreck commercial property is, how and I'm busy telling you uh the future for resi property in America and Germany, Australia is all going to be heading down in real terms, but no one's going to talk about the the the assets that sits with banks and the effect conspirational or consp conspiracy”

The wealth generated by the current collapse will be highly polarized: some investors positioned correctly in gold, hard assets, and offshore capital will become 'significantly wealthier,' while 'the majority' will be 'impoverished,' making correct positioning not just profitable but essential to avoid financial devastation.

“It's going to be a totally polarizing event. Some people are going to get significantly wealthier out of this, but the majority are going to be impoverished by it. I really wish for everybody not to be caught on the wrong side.”

Capital will experience a geographical flow away from the US despite volatility because trust has been eroded by the tariff tantrum; you can only scare markets like that once before trust breaks and becomes long-term damage.

“There's going to be a geographical flow away from the US still because of the the the tar. You can only scare people like they did with the tariff tantrum once and trust is eroded. They did long-term damage on trust there. Fool me once.”

There is an epidemic of insider trading and financial fraud occurring on 'an epic scale' involving Nancy Pelosi, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and others buying stocks days before tariff announcements and purchasing deep out-of-the-money call options that expire worthless, then profit 1000x when announcements hit.

“I'm posting on Twitter, best trader in the world, number one, best trader in the world, number two. And we have Nancy Pelosi, we even have Marie Green. Uh they buying into Palentia just before they go up 60%.”

Hunt's core thesis ('debt-based collapse') and long-term rates rising are the only reliable guiding principles; investors should structure entire portfolios around these two ideas, as they explain everything downstream and will prove durable across all surface-level volatility.

“Debt based collapse. Like I start every interview, debt based collapse, long-term rates up. Debt based collapse. And on that note, we're going to end the interview as well.”

The Saudis are deliberately increasing oil supply despite a recessionary environment with record bankruptcies and weak demand in order to maintain the inflation tax, because oil functions as a multiplier in inflation affecting delivery, travel, business, and all consumer goods and packaging.

“in a recessionary environment where goods haven't been provided where there's a downturn in demand we're hearing about record bankruptcies in the states... and you've got all that environment and people are saying yeah you see but the low CPI we're not going to stagflate so in that environment why would the Saudis be pumping more oil they've got to keep the inflation tax. Oil is a multiplier in inflation.”

The tariff tantrum was a brief 5-minute flash of the future, but it will return as a full day, then a full week, as the underlying dynamics of debt devaluation reassert themselves, representing the beginning of a series of dramatic episodes.

“everyone panicked with the panic and everybody's gone, hey, we're back to everything hunky dory. Neither is right. Uh the people that are thinking they're back to hunky dory, you just saw a flash of the future in a a small microcosm moment that comes back again. So, remember the guy who predicted it when it happened in the UK that said it's coming for America. It's happened once. You've had 5 minutes of it. Now wait till you have a full day. Now wait till you have a full week of it. It will come back.”

Finance is about to become the most important part of people's world, or they will be hit by the tsunami without understanding what hit them.

“finance is about to become the most important part of your world. Uh, or you just going to be hit by the tsunami and you're never going to know what hit you.”

Larry Fink (BlackRock CEO) is currently touring Saudi Arabia and the Middle East while banks are being 'paraded around the White House' and shown off as having made billions, demonstrating a coordinated strategy between government and finance.

“the banks are sitting at the table. Larry Fing is touring Saudi Arabia right now as he's in the Middle East. The banks are like they've been paraded around the White House like, "Hey, look, my friend just made a billion dollars here."”

German long-term rates will reach 4% and Australian long-term rates will hit 6%, and housing markets will be chronically affected in both countries because bond market devaluation is a global phenomenon, not just an American one.

“I'm going to be showing today on our well tomorrow it is my speech uh that the German long rate is going to go higher and is going to go to 4%. I'm going to show that the Australians hitting for 6%. Now, Australia glided through the GFC on their property market. I'm saying not this time. So, housing is going to be chronically affected.”

The reserve asset search and transition is why gold is being treated as having a Midas or messianic moment, while crypto is a smaller market cap risk-on asset being treated as a future waiting in the wings for the new system.

“it's being treated slightly differently because it's time as a future waiting in the wings in waiting for the new system is now coming it's going to get a spotlight appearance where it's a has a bit of Midas feel about it. It has a messiahic moment. Um and and gold is in that same spotlight as well, but has already really really run.”

Americans themselves (both institutional and individual investors) are positioning short on American debt, which is a signal that confidence in US debt sustainability is breaking down at the level of US domestic capital.

“Americans themselves are positioning short on American debt.”

Banks are sitting at the negotiating table with Trump and Middle East investors, and record trading desk gains in the last quarter are evidence that banks are profiting from the uncertainty and volatility they helped create.

“the banks are sitting at the table. Larry Fing is touring Saudi Arabia right now as he's in the Middle East. The banks are like they've been paraded around the White House...And I've been reading about massive trade gains in all the banks on the trading desk. So, last last quarter actually. So, they're actually profiting massively from the uncertainty that's been created.”