Doomberg: The Vengeful Return of the Pendulum - Geopolitical Shifts

Excess fiscal spending is a short-term tailwind for economic growth but eventually collapses; incremental growth per debt shrinks over time.

“look excess fiscal spending is a Tailwind for economic growth at least temporarily it's a sugar high and eventually collapses and you know the incremental growth per debt is shinks”

Doge (Department of Government Efficiency) is not officially a government position but advises the Office of Budget Management, and firing federal employees is notoriously one of the hardest things to do, limiting what Musk and Vivic can actually do beyond advising cabinet members.

“it's not a government position officially I suppose it advises the office of budget management or a budget management office um and firing a federal employee is notoriously one of the hardest things to do and um but having said that I mean constitutionally the administrative state is an extension of the president that's pretty clear and from what I've read it's not my of expertise um there um are some things that Trump could do if so advised by Elon Musk and Vivic but I don't think the two of them have much in the way of authority to do anything other than advise the cabinet members Who oversee um those parts of the federal government”

Gold miners are the hated class with history of shenanigans and fraud in space, making it hard to partition good management teams and high-quality assets from bad ones, so market as class has decided against them.

“gold miners are just the hated class companies um there's just no other way to say it there's a lot of history um there's a lot of Shenanigans in the space frankly there's a lot of fraud in this space um and partitioning the good management teams from the bad ones is challenging and partitioning particip um partitioning the high um quality assets from the lowquality ones is challenging um but for whatever reason the market has just decided that as a class they're not interested in gold miners”

Cutting government spending substantially in short term risks triggering recession, and it's unclear whether Trump, who likes to see numbers go up, has fortitude to accept recession for long-range economic rebirth.

“you know like the Doge question you asked earlier um cutting the government to the extent that is being talked about will trigger a recession and is if is Trump prepared to suffer through that um he's a person who likes to see numbers go up um and when I say that people are a little surprised but look excess fiscal spending is a Tailwind for economic um growth at least temporarily it's a sugar high and eventually collapses and you know the incremental growth per debt is shinks and all of those things but if you substantially cut government spending at least in the short term you risk triggering a recession and one wonders whether Trump has the local fortitude to accept that to make the long range bet”

Excess fiscal spending is a Tailwind for economic growth at least temporarily, like a sugar high that eventually collapses and reduces incremental growth per debt, but preventing natural business cycles is mistake.

“look excess fiscal spending is a Tailwind for economic um growth at least temporarily it's a sugar high and eventually collapses and you know the incremental growth per debt is shinks and all of those things but if you substantially cut government spending at least in the short term you risk triggering a recession and one wonders whether Trump has the local fortitude to accept that to make the long range bet uh on the rebirth that will come from the recession by the way we're not anti- recession I think one of the big fallacies of of central planning and the federal central banks and and sorry Global central banks and so on is um that recessions are to be avoided um you you should try to cushion the blow for those most impacted But ultimately creative destruction is real and if you postpone the natural forces of the business cycle then when you do have a crisis it tends to be deeper and go on for longer”

There exists a 'unip party' (unified bipartisan establishment) that controls Congress and Washington DC independent of formal party affiliation, and members are aligned with continuous operation of how Washington has always been run.

“the Republicans quote unquote don't exist anymore I think there are people that are aligned with Trump's interests and people that are aligned with the continuous of how Washington has always been run and that second group is is as bipartisan as it gets um and that's why I think you're seeing former Democrats in Trump's cabinet as nominees and then a bunch of people that aren't associated with the traditional Republican party and very few nominees who are associated with the traditional Republican party”

Europe produces practically no oil and practically no natural gas, and a bit of coal that is burned in places like Germany and Poland, so how much oil or gas Europe consumes has nothing to do with how much oil and gas will be consumed by the rest of the world.

“for example for all of its virtue strutting Europe produces practically no oil and practically no natural gas and a bit of coal um the coal is burned in places like Germany and Poland today um what does how much oil or gas Europe consumes have to do with the rest of the world as it pertains to how much oil and gas will be consumed by the rest of the world nothing because they don't produce any of it so if they don't burn it it just makes it um available for somebody else”

Spot prices of natural gas at the Waha hub in the Permian spent much of the year fluctuating around and under zero where people literally were paying others to remove their natural gas, but this has now abated due to new pipeline capacity coming online.

“already spot prices of natural gas in the waha hub which is in the heart of the peran are well above zero again they had spent much of the Year fluctuating around and under zero where people literally were paying others to um remove their natural gas and that has um that has finally um Abad and for a variety of reasons not just politics but also a new pipeline has come online that is is allowing for significant off um capacity”

Trump's promises of peace 'on day one' and the war being 'over' are inconsistent with ground realities, as evidenced by Israel bombing Lebanon again after a ceasefire, showing that intent and reality are different things.

“the this Bluster that peace will happen on day one and the war will be over um again is it's just not consistent with the realities on the ground MH um but at the same time the intent is there and there is a trump effect and we do see the Justin shudos getting on a plane and and so on and so um but even Trump is not a magician Central planner there's no such thing like um ultimately free markets Prevail”

DOGE's success in cutting regulations is different and more valuable than cutting costs, as deregulation can be a meaningful contribution whereas pure cost-cutting will trigger recession.

“to the extent that doge is successful by in their efforts to cut regulations that's different than cutting cost by the way um that could actually be a meaningful contribution from the Doge or whatever doge is”

We are at a very precarious time because we have had an unprecedented lame duck session where the Biden Administration is winding down and the Trump Administration is spooling up, during which geopolitical escalations are occurring that appear to be at odds with the president's stated campaign desires.

“we are at a very precarious time um we've had the election thankfully there was a definitive outcome I think a far worst case scenario would have been a legitimately disputed election there was very little in the way of legitimate evidence that the outcome of the election was consistent with the vote um itself and that's not always the case and we should begin by being thankful that it was this time um we are seeing in our view an unprecedented lame dock session um as the Biden Administration winds down and the Trump Administration spools up um traditionally this has been a period of um collaboration perhaps still partisan in nature and um also a period where major longlasting geopolitical decision in particular are put on hold until the new team gets a chance to get in and get its team ready and in the past several weeks across many theaters um we are seeing what at least to sort of a somewhat neutral outside Observer appears to be a purposeful escalation”

Indonesia's citizens desire to drive cars and afford cheap gasoline, purchasing used cars from the West and will consume Western-displaced gasoline if it becomes available.

“Indonesia and the people in Indonesia would love to drive a car and they would love to be able to afford cheap gasoline to power that car and they buy used cars from the Western countries and keep them alive as long as possible and if gasoline is going to be more available because we in the west have decided to power our cars with um batteries well fine they'll happily take that gasoline”

The US is still adding ~$1 trillion in debt every 100 days and crossing $1.2 trillion in annual interest rate payments; the long bond is signaling trouble ahead.

“we're still adding a trillion in change in debt every 100 days and we're crossing 1.2 trillion in interest rate payments a year and the long bond is um is telling you that U that there's trouble ahead”

Gold miners are a 'hated class' of companies; the market simply decided it's not interested in them, creating a disconnect between gold prices and gold mining equity performance.

“gold miners are just the hated class companies um there's just no other way to say it there's a lot of history um there's a lot of Shenanigans in the space frankly there's a lot of fraud in this space um and partitioning the good management teams from the bad ones is challenging”

Free markets ultimately prevail over central planning, and Trump is not a magician or central planner; there is no such thing as one, implying limits to Trump's ability to force economic outcomes.

“even Trump is not a magician Central planner there's no such thing like um ultimately free markets Prevail”

Despite near-term gold weakness, Doomberg has not changed his gold allocation and believes long-term thesis remains intact because US is debasing currency and countries will seek gold reserve alternatives.

“but having said that we've not changed our allocation um towards gold um we took a little bit off near the top which I think is always prudent nobody goes broke banking a profit um but we still have a very large position and the long-term thesis for gold remains unchanged the US is debas in the currency Trump is likely to accelerate that other countries are going to want to shift away from us treasuries as a neutral Reserve asset gold is the only really viable substitution for those um nobody's going to accept Chinese debt or you know Russian debt or Brazilian debt or Indian debt or Indian debt as a as a reserve asset and so it's treasuries orust”

A person's lifestyle is mandated and fixed by how much energy they can harness and deploy for bettering their life.

“your lifestyle is mandated and fixed by how much energy you get to harness and to deploy for the purposes of bettering your life”

When observing events one doesn't understand, assuming missing information rather than randomness is a useful analytical approach.

“I long ago dropped any uh pretenses that um events like these are random right I mean there's a broader game being played by people you and I never see or hear from and um and there's always you know whenever I see things that I don't understand I now assume that I'm just missing an important piece of information”

The Republican party doesn't exist anymore as coherent entity; there are people aligned with Trump interests versus those aligned with continuous Washington operation.

“the Republicans quote unquote don't exist anymore I think there are people that are aligned with Trump's interests and people that are aligned with the continuous of how Washington has always been run and that second group is is as bipartisan as it gets”

All humans everywhere want a higher standard of living, and China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Africa will not accept continuing to keep their average citizens in poverty when there is an opportunity to improve their situation through fossil fuel consumption.

“all humans everywhere want a higher standard of living and so when I debated people like Professor Steve Keane for example um just our answer was brace for impact like we are going to run the experiment um so we'll find out which side was correct and if it is as um catastrophic as you're saying it's going to be I guess we'll just have to deal with the consequences to such calamities as they arise because that is what's going to happen um it was never going to be the case that China and India and Brazil and Indonesia and Pakistan and and Africa were going to um buy into the prospect of continuing to keep the plight of their average citizen in the Imp category when there was an opportunity to do something about it”

Declaration of war with Congress has not occurred since 9/11 despite multiple military deployments, which violates constitutional requirement for congressional declaration before sending combat troops on serious missions.

“we should have a declaration of war with Congress if we're going to send combat troops on serious missions and we haven't done that since 911”

We live in a fantasy world now; reality has been destroyed, and gold's probabilities are overwhelmingly on its side to increase in value.

“we live in a fantasy world now reality has been destroyed this is the time that you really need to pay attention the probabilities are overwhelmingly on Gold's side that is the best environment to see gold increase its value”

Nobody is going to accept Chinese, Russian, Brazilian, or Indian debt as reserve asset, so the only alternative to US Treasuries is gold as neutral reserve asset.

“gold is the only really viable substitution for those um nobody's going to accept Chinese debt or um you know Russian debt or Brazilian debt or Indian debt as a as a reserve asset and so it's treasuries orust”

The US Dollar strengthened significantly after Trump's election, yet improving US competitiveness and exports would require a weaker dollar—a fundamental contradiction in Trump's stated objectives.

“he wants to see the number go up obviously on the election that the dollar shot shot up and and strengthened quite a bit yet to improve competitiveness and exports you're going to need a weaker dollar so you know talking about both of those things and actually trying to understand the reality of both of those situ a is kind of back to that saying of literally versus pragmatically right”

What Trump can do with DOGE depends on what he feels he can act on politically, what has to go through Congress, and Trump has control of the White House while the uniparty (bipartisan Washington establishment) controls Congress.

“ultimately the president president himself so um what they find and what Trump feels he can act on politically and then there's always the question of what has to get through Congress to enact meaningful change and I I would argue that it's wrong to view Washington as the Republicans I.E Trump have control of the house and the Senate and the White House and the Supreme Court um Trump has control of the White House and the unip party controls Congress”

There are renewed outbreaks of hostilities in Syria and political unrest in Georgia that is reminiscent of what happened in Ukraine in 2014, with multiple escalations occurring simultaneously during the transition—probably not a coincidence.

“we see a renewed outbreak of hostilities in Syria yeah and we're seeing of course the uh political unrest uh in in Georgia which is very reminiscent to what happened in Ukraine in 2014 all these things occurring all at once during the transition are a probably not a coincidence”

Russia is creating flareups in Syria and other theaters where it has strategic interest, probably under hopes that this causes a diversion of NATO resources away from Ukraine or sets up negotiating chips for future summits.

“we're seeing flareups in various other parts of the world where Russia has some some national interest and probably under the hopes that this causes a diversion of resources and M share away from Ukraine or sets up um negotiating sort of chips um to be used in some future Summit”

The warring sides in Ukraine are miles apart and almost at the point of delusion; Russia has a bigger army, more sophisticated supply chain, and is much closer to the line of contact, so if a deal cannot be struck, a military solution will determine the outcome.

“the sides are miles apart um uh almost to the point of delusion and ultimately might is right and Russia has a bigger Army and a more sophisticated supply chain and is much closer to the line of combat contact than the NATO country supplying Ukraine”

Listeners should also keep eye on potential escalation points around the world as several countries are already in World War II-like situation.

“and also keep an eye on um potential other points of escalation around the world I mean I looked all the other countries involved were already in World War II we don't characterize it as such in North America but that's certainly how the rest of the world sees it”

Warring sides in Ukraine are miles apart almost to the point of delusion, Russia has a bigger army and more sophisticated supply chain and is much closer to the line of combat contact than NATO countries supplying Ukraine, so if a deal can't be struck then whoever wins on the ground prevails.

“the sides are miles um apart um uh almost to the point of delusion and ultimately might is right and Russia has a bigger Army and a more sophisticated supply chain and is much closer to the line of combat contact than the NATO country supplying Ukraine and um and so a deal if it can't be struck then everyone just watches and sees what happens on the ground”

If you doubt that Republicans and Democrats control Congress as a unified entity, observe Mitch McConnell's recent actions; he represents the continuation of how Washington has always been run, opposed to Trump's interests.

“and if you have any doubt about that um just observe what Mitch McConnell has been up to for the past couple of weeks um I I think it's wrong to view Republicans and Democrats as as two separate teams I think there's Washington which voted 96% Democrat I believe and Trump and uh it's especially as closely divided as the house is it won't take much in the way of defections for um for Congress to come up the system”

The US is adding a trillion dollars in debt every 100 days and crossing 1.2 trillion per year in interest rate payments, with long bond telling of trouble ahead.

“we're still adding a trillion in change in debt every 100 days and we're crossing 1.2 trillion in interest rate payments a year and the long bond is um is telling you that U that there's trouble ahead”

Most executives of manufacturing, energy, and chemical companies never truly believed climate change was the existential threat they were instructed to say it was and were happy to go along to get along; being liberated by Trump to speak skepticism will create a stampede to the exit from ESG with non-compliance becoming a competitive advantage.

“if you really put some truth serum into the vast majority of Executives of manufacturing companies and energy companies chemical companies most of them never really thought that climate change was the existential threat that they were instructed to say it was and being liberated to speak uh one of the rare exceptions of course was um Chris Wright himself in a 180 page document he published as a public company CEO when it wasn't exactly safe to do so called U bettering human lives I believe um you know most CEOs were happy to you know go along to get along and um mouth what they were supposed to say and paid for fancy booth at various cop meetings um with Trump normalizing the vocalization of skepticism and opposition to these Trends we're going to see a stampede to the exit um and in fact it'll be a competitive disadvantage if you don't”

Countries naturally hedge against being placed on the US sanctions list by looking to develop alternative payment systems, and the US itself is partially to blame for accelerated development of BRICS options.

“to the extent that other countries are worried about someday being put on that list it's only natural that they would at least look to hedge their bets uh or buy little insurance against such uh eventualities and so um the US itself is at least partially to blame for the accelerated development of the bricks option”

Central bank and federal government interference with economic cycle is bipartisan and global, with all central bankers trying to prevent recessions, which is a mistake.

“and the whole interference with the economic cycle altogether is is a bipartisan thing and it is a a global thing all Central um Bankers are trying to do it and we think it's it's a mistake well first of all you can't do it but attempting to prevent recessions is is almost never beneficial”

Since 1991, there has been no Congressional declaration of war, but serious military missions continue without that authority.

“we haven't done that since 911 so um it's a dangerous time it's a cautionary time”

The DOGE is not officially a government position but advises the office of budget management; firing federal employees is notoriously difficult, and Musk and Vivek can only advise cabinet members, not directly act.

“it's not a government position officially I suppose it advises the office of budget management or a budget management office um and firing a federal employee is notoriously one of the hardest things to do and um but having said that I mean constitutionally the administrative state is an extension of the president that's pretty clear and from what I've read it's not my of expertise um there are some things that Trump could do if so advised by Elon Musk and Vivic but I don't think the two of them have much in the way of authority to do anything other than advise the cabinet members Who oversee um those parts of the federal government”

John Bolton's appearances on TV are an embodiment of the Deep State and uniparty; there is panic in Washington about Trump, indicating he is an existential threat to the establishment.

“you can only if you want an indication of what the Deep State or the swamp as you characterize it is thinking just just look at what John Bolton is saying on TV right I mean there's no the embodiment of the deep state of the unip party and there is panic”

There is unified desire among incoming Trump appointees to unleash American ingenuity and technical prowess in the energy sector.

“there's a unified desire amongst the incoming Trump appointees to unleash American uh uh Ingenuity and and Technical prowess in the energy sector”

Trump likely overestimates his hand and underestimates realities on the ground in Ukraine; leaked summaries of his peace plans do not strike him as realistic, and the prospects for peace are less than 50/50.

“it's hard to say much um can change between now and January 20th as we talked about um also I do think that Trump has a tendency to overestimate his hands and to underestimate the realities on the ground um and having seen at least leaked uh summaries of what his plans are for a negotiated piece um they don't strike me as rather realistic and um but again who knows where we'll be on January 20th who knows where the line of combat contact will be who knows what will have transpired between now and then and and how the realities on the ground will change um we would say that the prospects for peace are less than 50/50”

Primary energy and artificial intelligence are interconnected, with US needing enormous amounts of energy to be effective AI leader, while China is short energy and doesn't have near the resources the US does.

“primary energy and artificial intelligence are two areas where the US has really significant Global advantages and also the two are interconnected you need an enormous amount of primary energy to Be an Effective AI leader um China is getting quite good at AI Technologies but they're short energy and um they don't have near the resources that we do”

Individual investors can discover alpha in gold miners if willing to do research to identify good teams with quality assets that care about shareholders, but market won't reward at scale—must wait for dividends, buyouts, or liquidity events.

“for whatever reason the market has just decided that as a class they're not interested in gold miners now to the individual investor that provides an opportunity for Alpha if you're willing and able to do your own research and to truly discover the good teams with the good assets that care about their shareholders um but the market is not going to reward you at least there's no evidence that the market is going to reward you um you'll have to be rewarded in dividends or um buyouts or you know liquidity events”

Doomberg doesn't understand why gold mining company would want to be public, suggesting they should raise money in private markets with patient shareholders and only come to markets after proving assets.

“but it is just a hated class and and if you just look at the disparity and appreciation between gold and the gold mining stocks it's pretty clear if you would have told me that gold would um breach you know $2,700 an ounce I would have said that that would be wildly bullish for gold mining stocks because you know and especially in an era where diesel prices are falling and natural gas is basically free um you know the market is just mispricing the gold miners and so to some to the contrarians to the value oriented that's an opportunity um and and to those people I would say um prepare to be patient looking forward from here I've heard you talk about what the US can still dominate in so what are those two sectors and and what are their importance to the US going forward yeah primary energy and artificial intelligence are two areas where the US has really significant Global advantages and also the two are interconnected you need an enormous amount of primary energy to Be an Effective AI leader um China is getting quite good at AI Technologies but they're short energy and um they don't have near the resources that we do um and so and by the way those two things are ample pillars for a manufacturing Renaissance which we know is very high on Trump's agenda which is why he's talking about tariffs and and so on um because he wants to bring manufacturing back to the US and so you have the combination of cheap energy worlding AI technology there's just no question that the US is at The Cutting Edge of all of this and a president who is keenly interested on on both accelerating those two advantages and taking full sort of economic um advantages of of those strengths”

Doomberg's postulate: local restrictions against burning fossil fuels merely relocate who gets to enjoy the privilege of consuming that energy.

“we have long been formulated this last year in what we call dobber's postulate like every molecule of fossil fuel produced will be burned by somebody somewhere and local restrictions against such activities merely relocate who gets to enjoy the privilege”

Trump nominated people from different backgrounds and not associated with traditional Republican party, signaling alignment with competence rather than party affiliation.

“that's why I think you're seeing former Democrats in Trump's cabinet as nominees and then a bunch of people that aren't associated with the traditional Republican party and very few nominees who are associated with the traditional Republican party”

Doomberg is bashful isolationist who believes Department of Defense should focus on defense, and this position is not majority view.

“I think um on on a bashy isolationist I mean I think the Department of Defense should be focused on defending um that position is not necessarily a majority view”

How NATO loses the war in Ukraine is a very dangerous moment, and if Biden is trying to box Trump in, he might succeed—prospects for peace are less than 50/50 and a military solution is more likely.

“I think that Trump has a tendency to overestimate his hands and to underestimate the realities on the ground um and having seen at least leaked uh summaries of what his plans are for a negotiated piece um they don't strike me as rather realistic and um but again who knows where we'll be on January 20th who knows where the line of combat contact will be who knows what will have transpired between now and then and and how the realities on the ground will change uh We've long argued that how NATO loses this war is a very dangerous moment um and to the extent that Biden is trying to box Trump in um he might be successful in that regard um we we would say that the prospects for peace are less than 50/50 I think we're going to see a military Solution on the ground”

The vast majority of executives of manufacturing, energy, chemical companies never really thought climate change was the existential threat they were instructed to say it was, with Chris Wright being a rare exception who published a 180-page document criticizing climate alarmism when it wasn't safe to do so.

“if you really put some truth serum into the vast majority of Executives of manufacturing companies and energy companies chemical companies most of them never really thought that climate change was the existential threat that they were instructed to say it was and being liberated to speak uh one of the rare exceptions of course was um Chris Wright himself in a 180 page document he published as a public company CEO when it wasn't exactly safe to do so called U bettering human lives”

Keep eye on potential points of escalation around the world, and multiple countries are involved in what looks to them like World War III but North America doesn't characterize it as such.

“keep an eye on um potential other points of escalation around the world I mean I looked all the other countries involved were already in World War II we don't characterize it as such in North America but that's certainly how the rest of the world sees it and there's um a lot of Hope in the rest of the world um that Trump suddenly is going to change all of that we hope he does not convinced that he will”

We are at a very precarious time with an unprecedented lame duck session where the Biden Administration is winding down while the Trump Administration is spooling up, and across many geopolitical theaters we are seeing purposeful escalation that appears at odds with Trump's stated campaign desires and what voters ultimately voted for.

“we are at a very precarious time um we've had the election thankfully there was a definitive outcome...we are seeing in our view an unprecedented lame dock session um as the Biden Administration winds down and the Trump Administration spools up um traditionally this has been a period of um collaboration perhaps still partisan in nature...we are seeing what at least to sort of a somewhat neutral outside Observer appears to be a purposeful escalation”

Trump may have selected some controversial cabinet picks as deliberate deflection to consume the union party's limited shots at nominees, allowing less controversial but more talented picks like Chris Wright to proceed through confirmation with much less opposition.

“you know the media tends to create um its own controversies because they have 24 hours to fill um and also one wonders whether Trump hasn't selected a few um sort of off the off the- wall picks just to deflect uh because there's only so many shots at the targets that um the union party system in Washington is going to get at his nominees and so if you you pick a few that are obvious for them to range in on then maybe a few of the more talented and and uncontroversial Chris rights of the world can get through with much less controversy”

Partitioning high-quality gold mining assets from low-quality ones is challenging, and the market has decided not to attempt this discrimination, creating an opportunity for individual investors willing to do their own research.

“but for whatever reason the market has just decided that as a class they're not interested in gold miners now to the individual investor that provides an opportunity for Alpha if you're willing and able to do your own research and to truly discover the good teams with the good assets that care about their shareholders um but the market is not going to reward you at least there's no evidence that the market is going to reward you”

Failing to exit ESG will become a competitive disadvantage as other companies exit and reorient business models.

“and in fact it'll be a competitive disadvantage if you don't”

Regulatory reduction (by Doge or otherwise) is different from cost cutting and could be meaningful contribution to growth if focused on deregulation rather than elimination of government services.

“now to the extent that doge is successful by in their efforts to cut regulations that's different than cutting cost by the way um that could actually be a meaningful contribution from the Doge or whatever doge is”

The biggest winners from Trump's energy policy will be those who care about the standard of living of the United States, as the US is already a global energy superpower and acceleration of nuclear Renaissance and lightening of federal regulations for energy exploration are bullish for the American citizen.

“the biggest winners I think will be um those who care about the standard of living of the United States that we are in a position well we already are a global Energy gigap power and um if Chris Wright has his way um we see an acceleration of the nuclear Renaissance we see um a a lightning of uh federal regulations for the exploration development of of new energy and all those things are bullish for the American citizen”

China never had carbon commitments and doesn't care about carbon emissions, and Trump's number one economic objective is to become more competitive with China, so he will not allow the US to enter that fight with one hand tied behind its back.

“China never had carbon commitments and doesn't really care about carbon emissions the data just proves it out and Trump's number one economic objective is to become more competitive with China and he's not going to allow the us to go into that fight with one hand tied behind its back”

Putin is actively working to create an alternative to the US dollar and is at war with the United States, whereas Trudeau chose engagement over conflict, demonstrating that war is the ultimate failure of diplomacy.

“Putin is actively working to create the alternative to the US dollar that um that Trump was boning about in his tweet and and again you know Putin somewhat he would argue he wasn't left with much in the way of a choice um but Putin is currently basically at war with the United States which gets back to the first thing we talked about um and Trudeau didn't want a war with the United States and so you know war is always the ultimate failure of diplomacy um and U both parties in a war have by definition failed um in their diplomacy and Trudeau seems to have nipped this one in the butt and Kudos him for doing it”

Trump is a historic force whose journey from 2015 to present is stuff of history, but his many contradictions and walking contradictions are real and will replay first term patterns.

“you can't deny that he is a historic Force right I mean um and his um Odyssey from the escalator in 2015 to 2020 to what just transpired is is truly the stuff of history and and historians will be writing and thinking and pontificating about it um for a very long time but you're right like you you can't and by the way just as we're talking um you know a headline just cross Bloomberg that Israel is now bombing Lebanon again so um you know the the this Bluster that peace will happen on day one and the war will be over um again is it's just not consistent with the realities on the ground MH um but at the same time the intent is there and there is a trump effect and we do see the Justin shudos getting on a plane and and so on and so um but even Trump is not a magician Central planner there's no such thing like um ultimately free markets Prevail now to the extent that doge is successful by in their efforts to cut regulations that's different than cutting cost by the way um that could actually be a meaningful contribution from the Doge or whatever doge is um but um to your question about the inherent contradictions in Trump's many political um pontifications they're real they're there they were there in his first Administration you know um fed Independence to you know berating chairman pal um and so on so this will happen again I mean Trump is Trump um he is who he is we all know who he is but we we know who he isn't by the way which made some of the attacks against him in this election I think rather foolish um but Ness Trump is Trump and Trump's GNA Trump trump likes his numbers to go up um Trump likes to win Trump wants more manufacturing Trump wants America to be Hulk Hogan again and uh he's going to try to do it”

Chris Wright's nomination for Secretary of Energy is an outstanding pick because he has a deeply impressive track record of success in the energy sector and is demonstrably patriotic, which is rare for someone of his wealth and success to sacrifice for public service.

“he is by outside appearances a deeply patriotic person and a very pro-human energy uh Enthusiast and his track record of success across basically everything he's ever tried to do is quite impressive and so it's encouraging that somebody with his talent and track record is willing to serve in the Public's interest uh in such an important position”

Natural gas spot prices at the Waha hub have recently rebounded from spending much of the year below zero, driven by new pipeline capacity that enabled off-take.

“already spot prices of natural gas in the waha hub which is in the heart of the peran are well above zero again they had spent much of the Year fluctuating around and under zero where people literally were paying others to um remove their natural gas and that has um that has finally um Abad and for a variety of reasons not just politics but also a new pipeline has come online that is is allowing for significant off capacity”

The market will not reward mining stocks through price appreciation, instead rewarding through dividends or buyouts or liquidity events.

“the market is not going to reward you at least there's no evidence that the market is going to reward you um you'll have to be rewarded in dividends or buyouts or you know liquidity events”

The incoming Treasury Secretary nominee has announced intent to facilitate an incremental 3 million barrels of oil production in the US during his tenure.

“the new incoming nominee for the Secretary of Treasury has announced an intent to facilitate an incremental three million barrels of oil production in the US during his tenure”

Doomberg would not underestimate the power of the Deep State to fight back against Trump, nor the motivation to do so; there are significant risks between now and January 20th, between January 20th and the first 100 days, and across four years.

“I wouldn't underestimate the power of the deep state to fight back and nor the motivation to do so so again there's lots of risks between now and January 20th and between January 20th and the first 100 days and then you know four years is a long time as well um so we'll see how much Trump can get done through executive action which is a lot”

Cutting government spending substantially risks triggering a recession in the short term, and Trump is someone who likes to see numbers go up, raising questions about whether he has the local fortitude to accept recession for long-range rebirth.

“like cutting the government to the extent that is being talked about will trigger a recession and is if is Trump prepared to suffer through that um he's a person who likes to see numbers go up um and when I say that people are a little surprised but look excess fiscal spending is a Tailwind for economic growth at least temporarily it's a sugar high and eventually collapses and you know the incremental growth per debt is shinks and all of those things but if you substantially cut government spending at least in the short term you risk triggering a recession and one wonders whether Trump has the local fortitude to accept that to make the long range bet uh on the rebirth that will come from the recession”

Trump may have selected some controversial cabinet picks deliberately to deflect media attention, allowing less controversial but more talented nominees like Chris Wright to pass through confirmation with less controversy.

“and also one wonders whether Trump hasn't selected a few um sort of off the off the- wall picks just to deflect uh because there's only so many shots at the targets that um the union party system in Washington is going to get at his nominees and so if you you pick a few that are obvious for them to range in on then maybe a few of the more talented and and uncontroversial Chris rights of the world can get through with much less controversy”

Trump's opening stance on tariffs (100% on BRICS countries, 25% on Canada/Mexico) is more a statement of intent and desire for change than a concrete policy proposal; he consistently uses this negotiation strategy of opening with a ridiculous position.

“Trump style is in sort of classic negotiation um strategy is to a always open and B always open with a relatively ridiculous position um his opening stance is more of a statement of intent um and and a statement of a desire for change than it is a policy proposal”

Justin Trudeau recognized the importance of the US relationship and Trump's role in current political dynamics, chose to meet Trump in person to protect Canadian economic interests rather than make Trump an election issue, and should receive credit for choosing pragmatism over political posturing.

“as I said I give trudo credit um he recognizes the importance of the US relationship M he recognizes the importance of Donald Trump in the current political Dynamic and he recognizes the value of discourse especially peer-to-peer inperson discourse and um and and he himself of course is in the middle of a very hotly contested um campaign even though it's not officially launched yet everybody knows what's coming and look set to lose that by a wide margin um and there was a world in which he could have taken a different position with Trump um and sort of prioritized his prospects in the upcoming election as opposed to protecting the well-being and economic health of the companies and citizens of Canada and he seems to have chosen the second option um which he should get credit for”

One of Trump's day-one executive orders will remove the temporary ban on new LNG export licenses, allowing a wave of energy export construction projects to proceed, which is bullish for domestic natural gas production.

“we hear from those who should know that one of the day one executive orders of President Trump will be to um remove the temporary ban on new lergy export licenses which will allow a wave of energy export construction projects to proceed a pace”

Putin is actively working to create alternatives to the US dollar, whereas Trudeau avoided war with the US through diplomacy; war is the ultimate failure of diplomacy.

“Putin is actively working to create the alternative to the US dollar that um that Trump was boning about in his tweet and and again you know Putin somewhat he would argue he wasn't left with much in the way of a choice um but Putin is currently basically at war with the United States which gets back to the first thing we talked about um and Trudeau didn't want a war with the United States and so you know war is always the ultimate failure of diplomacy um and U both parties in a war have by definition failed um in their diplomacy and and Trudeau seems to have nipped this one in the butt and Kudos him for doing it”

The odds of Trump being sworn in on January 20th are effectively close to one; the only plausible black swan scenario would be a full-blown war and national emergency declaration that leads the current administration to refuse to hand over power, but this is assigned extremely low probability.

“the odds of trump being sworn in on January 20th are effectively close to one we hope one should hope both sides should hope because there are no scenarios in which he is not that are Pleasant ones um we do know with some interest that he doesn't seem to be straying all that far from marilo in the past few weeks and one wonders um whether he even will before January 20th and to be fair there have been at least two known attempts on his life one of which was very narrowly avoided and if we were in his shoes marago seems like a nice enough place whether WEA looks pretty good um there's no reason to stray um from that bunker so to speak because that's effectively what it is and if you're stationary the Secret Service is far more effective at you know um keeping you safe so the only sort of Black Swan scenario um which I don't think is a real possibility is that through these provocations and counter provocations we end up in a full-blown war and a state of um National Emergency is declared and for whatever flims justifications are put forward um the current Administration decides that they're just not going to turn over power um we would assign that in extremely low probability”

The US Dollar has gotten really strong, and Trump has decided to pick a fight with BRICS, which undercuts the fundamental thesis for gold that relied on BRICS currency development and gold's key role.

“the US Dollar's gotten really strong and um Trump has decided he's going to pick a fight with bricks and under fundamental underpinning of the rally in gold is the anticip anticipation that the bricks currencies uh the bricks currency project would develop and gold would play a key role in it”

Trudeau will face accusations of submitting to Trump's whims or bending the knee, but Canadian exporters would be happy with his diplomacy approach given the alternative of sudden 25% tariffs across the board.

“he himself of course is in the middle of a very hotly contested um campaign even though it's not officially launched yet everybody knows what's coming and look set to lose that by a wide margin um and there was a world in which he could have taken a different position with Trump um and sort of prioritized his prospects in the upcoming election as opposed to protecting the well-being and economic health of the companies and citizens of Canada and he seems to have chosen the second option um which he should get credit for he he could have made Trump the enemy and ran against that and it might have injected some much needed energy into his prospects uh to retain his position as prime minister um but instead of that he took what I believe is the more prudent um approach which is as I said to get on a plane and risk being called you know um um submitting to Trump's whims or kissing Trump's hand or bending the knee to Trump and and all of those things will be all of those accusations will be thrown his way um but if I were an exporter of goods operating in Canada and the US was an important Market to me I would be relatively happy that Justin Trudeau um did what he did”

A pillar of Trump's energy strategy is deconstruction of the Inflation Reduction Act and redirection of some of that money to what he calls 'real infrastructure'.

“another um pillar of Trump's uh energy strategy is a a deconstruction of the um inflation reduction act and a redirection of some of that money to what he calls quote unquote real infrastructure”

The Trump victory is a death nail to the ESG movement, and COP28 last year will be recorded by historians as the peak, with COP29 being a flop where nothing meaningful happened.

“we believe that the Trump Victory is a death n to the ESG movement um we we made a call after cop 28 last year that that would in fact be recorded by historians as PG and I think that call has largely played out m cop cop 29 was a flop I mean nobody went nothing meaningful happened”

Trump tweeted about imposing 100% tariffs on countries abandoning the US dollar, which Doomberg views as an opening gambit reflecting Trump's negotiation strategy of starting with a ridiculous position to signal intent and desire for change rather than as a literal policy proposal.

“he tweeted about imposing ter on Canada and Mexico um specifically about the fentanyl crisis and a few other beefs that he has with both um countries...Trump style is in sort of classic negotiation um strategy is to a always open and B always open with a relatively ridiculous position um his opening stance is more of a statement of intent um and and a statement of a desire for change than it is a policy um proposal and I would view the bricks tweet which came on the heels of the Canada maxo tariff tweet um in the same vein”

Justin Trudeau recognized the importance of US relationship and chose to engage Trump in person rather than make Trump an enemy for domestic political advantage, which deserves credit despite the risk of appearing submissive.

“I give trudo credit um he recognizes the importance of the US relationship M he recognizes the importance of Donald Trump in the current political Dynamic and he recognizes the value of discourse especially peer-to-peer inperson discourse...there was a world in which he could have taken a different position with Trump um and sort of prioritized his prospects in the upcoming election as opposed to protecting the well-being and economic health of the companies and citizens of Canada and he seems to have chosen the second option um which he um should get credit for”

With Trump normalizing vocalization of skepticism and opposition to climate trends, we're going to see a stampede to the exit from ESG positions and not participating will become a competitive disadvantage.

“being liberated to speak uh one of the rare exceptions of course was um Chris Wright himself...most CEOs were happy to you know go along to get along and um mouth what they were supposed to say and paid for fancy booth at various cop meetings um with Trump normalizing the vocalization of skepticism and opposition to these um Trends we're going to see a stampede to the exit um and in fact it'll be a competitive disadvantage if you don't”

Those on the left who favored executive action as policy instrument now face the 'whirlwind' of Trump using executive power in reverse, exemplifying 'reaping what you sow' for normalizing executive overreach.

“we've long warned those on the left who basically prefer to use executive action as a means of imposing policy that if you lose control of the executive Wing you stand susceptible to the exact same um escalations in reverse and we're going to see that now um the Whirlwind you know reaping what you s”

Trump's energy strategy includes deconstruction of the Inflation Reduction Act and redirection of that money to what he calls 'real infrastructure.'

“I think another um pillar of Trump's uh energy strategy is a a deconstruction of the um inflation reduction act and a redirection of some of that money to what he calls quote unquote real infrastructure”

Cheap energy, AI technology, and manufacturing Renaissance are interconnected; Trump is talking about tariffs and bringing manufacturing back to the US because of these opportunities.

“and so and by the way those two things are ample pillars for a manufacturing Renaissance which we know is very high on Trump's agenda which is why he's talking about tariffs and and so on um because he wants to bring manufacturing back to the US and so you have the combination of cheap energy worlding AI technology there's just no question that the US is at The Cutting Edge of all of this”

Trump is an unorthodox character whose tweets should be taken seriously but not literally; this framework has worked well since 2015.

“Trump is an ising character I mean I think you have to observe what he says and what he does through atypical lenses...Trump style is in sort of classic negotiation um strategy is to a always open and B always open with a relatively ridiculous position um his opening stance is more of a statement of intent um and and a statement of a desire for change than it is a policy proposal...this mental framework that has worked quite well since you know 2015”

Gold came off approximately $200 from its high, dampening sentiment in gold market, but the fundamental thesis for gold remains unchanged because US is debasing currency, Trump likely to accelerate that, and other countries will want to shift from US Treasuries.

“gold came off somewhere around $200 and you know it really took um the let's say the wind out of the sales for a lot of people within that within that market do you think that you know any of the fundamental picture for gold has actually changed oh sure yeah um the US Dollar's gotten really strong and um Trump has decided he's going to pick a fight with bricks and under fundamental underpinning of the rally in gold is the anticip anticipation that the bricks currencies uh the bricks currency project would develop and gold would play a key role in it and um but having said that we've not changed our allocation um towards gold um took a little bit off near the top which I think is always prudent nobody goes broke banking a profit um but we still have a very large position and the long-term thesis for gold remains unchanged the US is debas in the currency Trump is likely to accelerate that other countries are going to want to shift away from us treasuries as a neutral Reserve asset gold is the only really viable substitution”

Trump learned from the 'fiasco' of his first transition, is far more motivated and effective at political maneuvering now, and the Biden pardon of Hunter Biden strengthens Trump's hand by showing abuse of executive power.

“Trump Having learned from the Fiasco really of his first transition um is is far more motivated and far more effective uh at playing this particular game um and so um and again I do think that Hunter Biden pardon whatever your views on it does strengthen Trump's hand in this regard”

Flareups in various parts of world where Russia has interests are not coincidental and probably under hope that they cause diversion of resources from Ukraine or set up negotiating chips for a future summit.

“we're seeing I believe it's not coincidental we're seeing flareups in various other parts of the world where um Russia has some some national interest and probably under the hopes that this causes a diversion of resources and M share away from Ukraine or sets up um negotiating sort of chips um to be used in some future Summit”

The market is repricing assets (Bitcoin, Nvidia, oil, Tesla) based on belief that Trump will become president and accomplish many of his promised agenda; however, the VIX (market volatility) may be underpriced given the risks.

“the price action Bitcoin and so on um Nvidia oil Tesla um is telling us that the market believes that Trump is going to be president and that Trump is going to do many of the things that he has promised to do and and for the companies that the market is and commodities that the markets are currently repricing um the prospect of um Trump becoming president has all but been written out and the prospect of him not being able to achieve at least a fair bit of his proposed agenda um is also kind of been minimized um I very interested by the development of the betting markets by the way um the one um Market indicator that we think might be underpriced is the viig indicator you know um Market volatility is anticipating a period of relative Cal which again we respect the markets and we hope that that's correct but if you ask me to pick one that seemed under price it would be the vix”

One of Trump's day one executive orders will be to remove the temporary ban on new LNG export licenses, which will allow a wave of energy export construction projects to proceed at a faster pace.

“we hear from those who should know that one of the day one executive orders of President Trump will be to um remove the temporary ban on new lergy export um licenses which will allow a wave of energy export construction projects to proceed a pace”

The new incoming Treasury Secretary nominee has announced an intent to facilitate an incremental three million barrels of oil production in the US during his tenure.

“the new incoming nominee for the Secretary of Treasury has announced an intent to facilitate an incremental three million barrels of oil production in the US during his tenure um there's a unified desire amongst the incoming Trump appointees to unleash American uh uh um Ingenuity and and Technical prowess in the energy sector”

The only Black Swan scenario for disrupting January 20th inauguration would be if through provocations and counter-provocations we end up in a full-blown war with Russia and a state of National Emergency is declared, but this probability is extremely low and the US public and institutions would not tolerate such an outcome.

“the only sort of Black Swan scenario um which I don't think is a real possibility is that through these provocations and counter provocations we end up in a full-blown war and a state of um National Emergency is declared and for whatever flims justifications are put forward um the current Administration decides that they're just not going to turn over power um we would assign that in extremely low probability um I don't think that the US public or even the US institutions as um unified as they are in their support of one side over the other would tolerate such an outcome”

Biden may be trying to box Trump into a more aggressive Ukraine position by escalating the conflict before his departure.

“to the extent that Biden is trying to box Trump in um he might be successful in that regard”