Grant Williams: Real Change in the Monetary System is on the Horizon
What this covers
In our final episode of 2024, Grant Williams reflects on the significant themes of 2024, including the reversal of globalization, the rise of nationalism, and the political dynamics surrounding Trump's second term. He discusses the implications of these trends on the economy, market sentiment, and the relationship between Silicon Valley and government.
The conversation also touches on the challenges facing the incoming treasury secretary and the ambitious 3-3-3 plan for economic growth. In this conversation, Grant Williams discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on the role of the Treasury, the implications of GDP and market valuations, the challenges facing Trump and economic institutions, the future of monetary systems, and the importance of long-term investment principles. He emphasizes the need for a shift in economic thinking and the potential for significant changes in the financial system.
For more information on Grant Williams please visit: https://www.grant-williams.com | https://x.com/ttmygh
This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by...
Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (ASCU:TSX) is focused on developing its brownfield copper project on private land in Arizona. The Cactus Mine Project is located less than an hour's drive from the Phoenix International airport. Grid power and the Union Pacific Rail line situated at the base of the Cactus Project main road. With permitted water access, a streamlined permitting framework and infrastructure already in place, ASCU's Cactus Mine Project is a lower risk copper development project in the infrastructure-rich heartland of Arizona.For more information, please visit www.arizonasonoran.com.
Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world’s largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at https://vizslasilvercorp.com/
Minera Alamos is a gold developer and producer with its first low capex mine, Santana, continuing to work through start-up development. The company is also advancing the Cerro de Oro project through the permitting process. Minera is built around its operating team which brought 4 mines into production in Mexico over the last 13 years. It is fully funded with over $20-million dollars in working capital. Learn more at mineraalamos.com.
#msd #msdlongform #miningstockdaily
Source description (no synthesized summary yet).
Williams argues that the reversal of globalization toward nationalism is a cyclical inevitability driven by deteriorating living standards, and this structural shift will force a fundamental reset of the monetary system within the next few years, requiring investors to abandon short-term speculation for long-term principled investing.
- Globalization reversal is not a choice but the natural corrective phase of an overextended cycle, driven by unemployment, immigration, and inflation making daily life unaffordable for ordinary people
- Monetary systems fail every 40-60 years and are due for reset; the current system cannot sustain indefinite deficit spending and will eventually require gold as an anchor to stabilize geopolitically fragmented markets
- Markets are now driven purely by momentum and speculation disconnected from underlying business fundamentals, creating dangerous conditions for long-term investors who must prepare for a potential dislocation in 2025
This asset isn't compiled yet
You're seeing its claims, ranked. Compile it to build the argument threads, weight them, and check each claim against your library — the full view.
The inability to afford to live day-to-day—feeding kids and heating homes—is the most important driver of political behavior and electoral backlash, more so than left-versus-right ideology.
“and their ability most importantly perhaps on an individual basis to be be able to afford to live day-to-day to feed their kids and Heat their homes um yeah this trend is going to continue because that's ultimately what's driving this”
The last monetary system reset was in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, which was a 'stealth change' more significant than FX rate shifts but not understood by most people as a fundamental transformation of the monetary system.
“and really 1971 um when Nixon closed the old window and that second one was much more of a stealth change in the monetary system um it changed it fundamentally but not in a way that is readily understood by people because you know the currency FX rate between the deut mark and the pound shifted dramatically or you know there was some kind of balance of payments reset this was much bigger than that this this this severing of the connection to gold”
The political upheaval across Western countries (Trump in US, Labour in UK, similar movements in France and Germany) is not a left versus right decision but a vote against incumbency everywhere, driven by people's perception that life is not feeling good for them at the moment.
“this is not a left versus right uh decision people are making it's a it's an incumbent it's a vote against the incumbency everywhere everywhere and that's again because life is not feeling so great for people at the moment”
Stan Druckenmiller sat out of the technology sector in 1992 believing it was ridiculously overvalued, couldn't take it anymore, dove in anyway, and lost a billion dollars of Soros's money in a very short period—later saying when asked what he learned, 'nothing, I knew I shouldn't have done it but I did it anyway.'
“there's that great story that Stan driller tells about back in 1992 when he was you know working for Soros and had these two young guys making money every day in the technology sector just loving life and whooped and hollering and he sat out and he sat out thinking this is ridiculous it's this is just can't be justified and then he just couldn't take anymore and he he lost a billion dollars of soros's money you know in a very short period of time when he retold the story and he was asked what he learned from that that episode he said nothing you know I knew I shouldn't have done it but I did it anyway”
With each monetary system we ultimately end up in the space we're at now where you have the ability to create too much money and you're going to create too much money because that's just human nature.
“with each of these monetary systems we ultimately end up in the space we're at now where you just if you have the ability to create too much money guess what you're going to create too much money that's just human nature”
Monetary systems fail regularly, typically every 40-60 years on average, and we are due for a reset of the current monetary system because of inherent human tendency to create too much money when given the power to do so.
“you know monitary systems do fail every 40 to 60 years but of course you know that's kind of an average and so many many people go through their lifetime without experiencing it and of course we haven't had a monitary system reset since 1945 with Breton woods and really 1971 um when Nixon closed the old window and that second one was much more of a stealth change in the monetary system um it changed it fundamentally but not in a way that is readily understood by people because you know the currency FX rate between the deut mark and the pound shifted dramatically or you know there was some kind of balance of payments reset this was much bigger than that this this this severing of the connection to gold and so you know I I I think Russell's absolutely right I think Ely this monetary system will fail it will come as a huge shock to the vast majority of people and no shock at all to people who've kind of read monetary history and understand this is just the the nature of things because with each of these monetary systems we ultimately end up in the space we're at now where you just if you have the ability to create too much money guess what you're going to create too much money that's just human nature”
When markets get extended with nothing to do with fundamentals and businesses fail to expand enough to justify valuation increases or their businesses start to deteriorate, the air pocket between price and underlying real value becomes a 'gaping Chasm' and causes market reaction, determining how this current extension ends.
“anytime a market gets extended the way this has and it's got nothing to do with with fundamentals it's got nothing to do with you know much better earnings ultimately that will that will tell How This Ends is is when businesses start to not only fail to expand enough to to justify the increase in multiples but perhaps God forbid their businesses start to deteriorate you know then suddenly the air pocket between price and and underlying real value becomes a gaping Chasm and people start to react to that”
The reversal of globalization toward nationalism is not a choice people are making but the natural next phase of the cycle when things get overextended, and it will continue until electorates in their own countries are happy with how the countries are being run and their ability to afford to live day-to-day and feed their kids and heat their homes.
“this is the natural next phase of the cycle when when when things get overextended they kind of have to go back the other way and so you know with um with the supply chain issues that we've seen since covid with the unemployment problems with the immigration problems we're seeing right across the Western World this kind of um reshoring Trend uh is a natural outcome of all that and it and it set to continue”
Political upheaval across the West (Trump's election, UK Labour's shift, similar movements in France and Germany) is not fundamentally left versus right but rather a vote against incumbency everywhere, driven by life not feeling good for people and their inability to afford daily essentials.
“this is not um this is not a left versus right uh decision people are making it's a it's an incumbent it's a vote against the incumbency everywhere everywhere and that's again because life is not feeling so great for people at the moment and and that's the only recourse they have really is to vote out the government and bring in the the people who promise that they're going to do better for them”
The reversal of globalization is not a choice people are making but the natural next phase of the cycle when things get overextended, driven by supply chain issues since COVID, unemployment problems, and immigration problems that make reshoring a natural outcome that will continue until electorates in their own countries are happy with the way their countries are run and their ability to afford to live day-to-day.
“the reality of the whole thing is this is the natural next phase of the cycle when when when things get overextended they kind of have to go back the other way and so you know with um with the supply chain issues that we've seen since covid with the unemployment problems with the immigration problems we're seeing right across the Western World this kind of um reshoring Trend uh is a natural outcome of all that and it and it set to continue you know whether you like it or not”
The most important principle of long-term investing is that the permanent loss of unreplaceable capital is the greatest sin one can commit when trying to compound wealth over time, making capital preservation the paramount concern.
“there's a great need for people if not now then post all the things we've talked about today there's going to be opportunities to to create wealth the oldfashioned way which is which is you know slowly and steadily with uh with an understanding that the loss of permanent loss of of Irreplaceable capital is the biggest sin you can make in uh in trying to compound wealth over time”
Microstrategy has lost over $400 million last quarter from its backbone software development business but still trades at a premium to the Bitcoin it owns, exemplifying the disconnect between business value and stock price in the speculative environment.
“he mentions micro strategy a company that lost over $400 Million last quarter from its quote unquote backbone of business you know software development lost money but yet is still trading at a premium to the Bitcoin it does own”
The Treasury likely won't shift duration to the right (longer maturities) in the short term unless they arrange it beforehand with friendly central banks to ensure successful auctions.
“they could try and the auction goes poorly so I don't think you'll see an auction anywhere out in that range on the curve unless conversations have been had with friendly central banks beforehand to say look we're going to we're going to Tender x amount of uh 20 years and we need you to be in the auction”
The US stock market is trading on momentum and hope for the future rather than improvements in the underlying businesses of companies in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30, and when markets get extended with nothing to do with fundamentals, the gap between price and underlying value becomes a gaping chasm when businesses start to deteriorate.
“it's very very rare that you hear anybody talking about an improvement in the businesses of any of these companies you know it's all about momentum it's all about the Trump trade it's all about things that are completely existential to the business operations of the companies that make up the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones 30 there nothing to do with that”
Monetary systems fail fairly regularly on a 40-60 year cycle and are replaced by something else, though they may look similar and continue using the same fiat paper currency, but how that monetary system works changes drastically.
“monetary systems fail fairly regularly and we forget about this we we just forget that monetary systems 40 to 60 years typically fail and are replaced by something else they may look like what we have they may you know continue to use the same type of Fiat paper currency the looks of and the feels of it may look the same but the how that monetary system works uh changes drastically”
Unemployment, inflation, and immigration are the three key themes that haven't been absent in recent years but are moving closer to some sort of climax and will really drive decision-making, protests, and backlash against whichever government is in office going into 2025 because realistically they can't solve this problem without an awful lot of pain.
“these themes which haven't been absent the last few years but they but they're moving closer to some sort of climax unemployment inflation immigration and politics those three things um are really really important for people to keep an eye on going into uh 2025”
Governments try to solve inflation problems by handing checks out to people, which is the stupidest idea possible to solve that kind of problem, but they won't stop trying it because it's politically expedient.
“we've seen governments start handing checks out to people to solve the inflation problem which you and I know and any right thinking person knows is the stupidest idea you can possibly come up with to solve that kind of problem but it won't stop them from trying it's politically expedient”
Bringing more people into the stock market at higher and higher prices creates more victims when the crash occurs, as unexperienced investors who entered near peaks will be hurt most severely.
“they've achieved it good and hard and now to your point they've created a whole generation of people who expect the stock market to go up you know this is not this is not this idea of disclaimers about you know the value of stocks and gar as well are down not to this cohort you know they have become completely uh uh in inspector of markets going up and and the market has delivered for all kinds of reasons related to liquidity related to gambling culture related to whatever it doesn't really matter price go up is The Narrative of the day and so how do you how do you now having created that how do you take that away from people because if you do the the experienced investors um in the crowd will take it in stride and see if what it is and it's an opportunity to you know buy stocks at cheap valuations but obviously you're hurting hurting more and more people into the market as it goes higher and higher and higher which means you're you're ultimately bringing more and more people in above the level a crash would take it to and ultimately going to hurt more and more people”
Circumstances will be a huge driver of Treasury Secretary Bassent's results, as treasury secretaries are always hamstrung by circumstances, but the problems are particularly acute now because things have gone so far in debt accumulation.
“he's going to be hamstrung by circumstances like all treasury secretaries are this time however the problems are particularly acute because things have have gone so far you know look we're talking about a great rescue plan for America to get the deficit to 3% of GDP you know I mean sorry I don't mean a left but it's kind of crazy right but but that's where we are that's where we are that is my great plan is to get the deficit down 3% of GDP”
Unemployment, inflation, and immigration are the three critical drivers of political decision-making and backlash heading into 2025 because no government can solve these problems without inflicting significant economic pain, yet they will attempt politically expedient but economically destructive solutions like handing out checks to address inflation.
“unemployment inflation immigration and politics those three things um are really really important for people to keep an eye on going into uh 2025 because going to drive a lot of decision-making they're going to drive a lot of the protests I expect you're going to see they're going to drive a lot of the backlash you're going to see against whichever government is in office because realistically they can't solve this problem without an awful lot of pain”
The stock market has become the economy, and the market is now the primary vehicle for measuring economic health, making market movements and speculation the central focus of growth discourse.
“in an economy where the stock market um it is the economy anymore and I think that's not uh I don't think that's a controversial thing to say the economy is a stock market with the market carrying so much of the weight”
Value investing is a 'dying art' and old school value investors now constitute a core group of 'diehards' at a deeply unfashionable place in the market, but their principles are more essential than ever.
“and it's something that you know i've I've found to be a dying art and and as that art is dying out it's incredible actually the distillation down to the the people that still practice these these kind of long forgotten but deeply cherished ideals um are the very essence of The Craft and so you know we've had a lot of people come and go and become value investors and then shift the momentum investors and and and change their Style with with the changes in in the the taste of the investing public and that's just left this kind of core group of of you know dieh hard old school value investors and and it's a really unfashionable place to be right now”
People are at the phase where if you're not in a speculative market you're out and you better be in, which is normally a pretty good sign that we're within striking distance of the top.
“if you're not in you're out and you better be in and that normally is a pretty good sign that we're within Ki at the top”
Whatever government would have been in power in the UK at this particular point in time was going to have to face very ugly decisions, whether Conservatives or Labour, though they may have come up with different solutions and been able to sell them better to the electorate.
“whoever was going to be in power in the UK at this particular point in time was going to have to face some very ugly decisions the Tories would have had the same decisions to face they may have come up with a different solution to them and importantly been able to sell it better to the elector”
We may be near the end of the nation-state cycle as the optimal form of human organization; historical research suggests we are alongside overlapping cycles (land cycle, war cycle, stock market cycles, creative waves) that intersect at what could be the end of the nation-state era.
“he thinks this may be near the end of the nation state cycle this idea that the nation state is the right formation for for mankind to organize themselves under could be coming to the end you know do we do do countries go back to much smaller countries to to Regions that are autonomous um you know and and and this is such an interesting idea to think about um because it's not new you know it's how things started and and we're quite happy to talk about resetting all kinds of things but the basic fundamental way in which we organize our societies is something that people go well that's just a step too far”
Housing is becoming a critical political issue in developed countries including Australia; labor governments are refusing to address housing affordability, essentially admitting they want prices to continue rising rather than helping young people enter the property market.
“already the labor go the labor party down there have come out and basically said you know we we don't want to bring house prices down they've actually said the quiet partow we want them to to move up sustainably and steadily which is no good if you're a 20 something that can't afford to get anywhere near the property get your foot on it”
The next monetary system will not be as solely hegemonic as the US dollar system because too many other countries now have a vested interest as a block in not letting the US have it all their own way.
“after that we'll transition away back to another currency system I doubt it will be as as solely hegemonic as the US dollar system has been because there are too many other countries now with a vested interest not necessarily on their own but as a block to to let the US have it all their own way”
We've seen similar speculative bubbles just two or three years ago in crypto and tech, so identifying this pattern doesn't require reading history books—a 15-year-old investor has had the chance to live through this cycle already.
“we saw it two years ago where we back where we were two or three years ago we it's not like you have to read a history book to to recognize this we we've actually seen it you know if you're if you're a a a 15-year-old inv you've had a chance to live this already you know it's um this is not ancient history”
BLS employment revisions have been 'massive' in the last six months, and more decent-sized revisions are expected to come, suggesting the employment data has become significantly less reliable.
“we've seen some massive revisions from the BLS in the last six months massive revisions uh and I suspect there are some more decent sized ones to come”
This is currently a fantastic market for speculators with many ways to get involved and leverage positions, but a very difficult landscape for long-term investors who face the choice of getting pulled into overvalued markets they shouldn't buy or sitting out and missing gains.
“this is a fantastic speculators Market um and if you're a Speculator there are so many ways you can get involved and and seemingly on a daily basis people are finding new and clever ways to give you more leverage around those bets you're making um and it's a great time if you're a Speculator to be diving in with both feet and playing around and hopefully not losing money you can't afford to lose if you're an investor um with a long-term approach it's a much much trickier landscape”
No country will take a bullet for the US anymore or buy long-term US debt out of solidarity, and countries will continue to peel off from supporting US Treasury issuance because it's not in their self-interest.
“I don't think anyone's going to take a bullet for the us anymore and say well you know probably buying 20 year us debts not in our best interest but they need our support there will be a few who who continue to think that way but there will be people peeling off the other end that just saying you know what we're just not in a position to do that anymore”
They've succeeded in creating a whole generation of people who expect the stock market to go up, and for this cohort the wealth effect and value disclaimers about stocks are completely lost—they just expect price to go up.
“and now to your point they've created a whole generation of people who expect the stock market to go up you know this is not this is not this idea of disclaimers about you know the value of stocks and gar as well are down not to this cohort you know they have become completely uh uh in inspector of markets going up”
The US fiscal situation is starting to matter now particularly with forecasts of 8% deficits out for almost a decade, and that makes it difficult to sell 20-30 year bonds, which is why the US hasn't been able to do this.
“the US fiscal situation is starting to matter and and look it's been out of control for a long long time now the difference is it just hasn't seemed to matter to people and it and it starts to matter now particularly with these forecasts of you know 8 % deficits out for almost a decade that's something that if you have that kind of Outlook good luck selling 20 30 year bonds”
Post-2008, policies have been designed to increase risk appetite of people because that drives animal spirits which drives the stock market higher and then the wealth effect, and they've achieved this by getting more people into the stock market taking risk.
“that's one of the dangers of um of your narrative over the you know post financial crisis is is getting more people into the stock market and getting more people taking risk you know which has been the aim of of banki and Yellen and pow has been to increase the risk appetite of people because that drives animal spirits and animal spirits drives the stock market higher and then the trickle the wealth effect”
It's possible to get 3% growth nominally if inflation starts to crank up (which it probably will if rates are kept cut), allowing them to spin a story of 3% GDP growth even though much of it will be inflation rather than real growth.
“can you get 3% growth well possibly nominally you know nominally if if if inflation starts to crank up which if they keep cutting rates the way they are now it probably will uh you know there there's a story to be spun there if you get nominal GDP to 3% um with you know four 5% inflation”
The Republican party needed to harness the power of the technology sector to get their message across and amplify it on social media, and they realized they needed the power of the technology sector behind them or at least not actively working against them as it had been in the past.
“the the Republicans realized they needed to harness the power of the technology sector in order to get their message across in order to you know amplify messages on social media whatever it may be they realize they need the power of the technology sector behind them or at least at the very least not working actively against them which you know you could say they have been in the past”
Post-2008 financial crisis policy has been designed to stabilize the financial system and generate animal spirits to drive risk assets higher, successfully increasing risk appetite but creating a generation expecting perpetual stock market gains.
“the policies that have been instituted for such a long time now have been geared largely towards Financial stabilization um you know post 2008 we had to you know what did George say the sucker is going to go down we had to save the sucker and stop the system going down uh and then it's become designed to to generate animal spirits and and take risk assets higher um which is fine but you've created that world now and expectations have changed and you've now reached the point where you're probably going to have to disappoint some of those expectations”
Current stock market rallies are driven purely by momentum and hope for the future with nothing to do with improvements in underlying business fundamentals; the majority of stocks are actually falling while a tight group of leaders goes up, making this fundamentally disconnected from reality.
“when you listen to all the kind of fever commentary about the market going up um it's very very rare that you hear anybody talking about an improvement in the businesses of any of these companies you know it's all about momentum it's all about the Trump trade it's all about things that are completely existential to the business operations of the companies that make up the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones 30 there nothing to do with that”
The majority of stocks outside the Dow Jones 30 are actually falling, while a tight group of leadership stocks continues higher, indicating a deteriorating market breadth even as headline indices rise.
“just about every index in outside the Dow Jones which is just too narrow you'll see the majority of stocks are actually falling we've still got these this tight group of leaders going up”
Post-Ukraine and post-freezing of Russian central bank assets, there has been an implicit shift toward 'every man for himself' in central bank policy, as sovereigns realized there isn't a 'magic fire hose' from a country doing well that can bail out the rest of the world.
“there's an implicit shift here that's happened post uh post Ukraine and post the the freezing of these Russian and Central Bank assets there's much more of an every man for himself undercurrent to to Central Bank policy now because I think everybody's realised that when push comes to shove um there isn't there isn't a magic fire hose somewhere from a country that's doing really really well that can bail out the rest of the world”
The permanent loss of irreplaceable capital is the biggest sin you can make in trying to compound wealth over time, and this principle is central to The Principled Investor service.
“with uh with an understanding that the loss of permanent loss of of Irreplaceable capital is the biggest sin you can make in uh in trying to compound wealth over time”
A proper gold standard will not work in the long run because of the constraints it puts on nations, but in the short run gold will be necessary as an anchor to stabilize discussions about resetting the global monetary system.
“in the long run that probably doesn't work because of the restraints it puts on on Nations if you have a you know a proper gold standard in place but as a as a stabilizing Force at the center of of at least a discussion about how we reset the the global monetary system I think Gold's place is going to be an imperative”
There is a story that Stan Druckenmiller tells about 1992 when working for Soros where he sat out a technology rally thinking it was ridiculous and couldn't be justified, then lost a billion dollars of Soros's money when he finally capitulated and entered near the top, learning nothing from the experience except that he knew he shouldn't have done it but did it anyway.
“there's that great story that Stan driller tells about back in 1992 when he was you know working for Soros and had these two young guys making money every day in the technology sector just loving life and whooped and hollering and he sat out and he sat out thinking this is ridiculous it's this is just can't be justified and then he just couldn't take anymore and he he lost a billion dollars of soros's money”
Trump is a more visible President-elect than usual because he has stepped into the vacuum created by Joe Biden's absence, and Biden has been an absent president regardless of political perspective.
“I don't remember in my lifetime seeing a more visible President elect than Trump has been you know he's he's stepped into the vacuum created by Joe Biden's absence and he's been an absent president let's face it whichever sigh of the spectrum you fall on it's very difficult to to refute the idea that Biden's been an absent president and Trump has stepped into that void”
Everything that the statistical agencies publish is subject to competing narratives, so the credibility of the data is already suspect and Trump has leverage in disputing it.
“look who really knows what the statistics mean anymore anyway every time they come out right there's competing narratives so I you know I I don't I don't think I don't think that's necessarily going to be one of the big problems Trump faces”
Scott Bassent's '333 plan' aims for 3% economic growth, reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP, and increase oil production by 3 million barrels per day as the treasury secretary's primary economic goals.
“he has come out with this 333 plan uh aiming for 3% economic growth reduce the deficit to 3% of gross domestic product and increase oil production by 3 million barrels”
The UK Labour government under Keir Starmer has had disastrous approval ratings as low as any prime minister's ever been at that point in their term, having already been forced to break election promises, raise taxes, upset pensioners and working men and employers within their first six months in office.
“the approval racings of Kia starm as low as any prime minister's ever been at that point perhaps lower um you know they've already been forced to break a whole bunch of election promises they've already raised taxes they've already upset pensioners and working men and employers I mean they've really they could not have done a poorer job”
Micro Strategy is a company that lost over $400 million last quarter from its quote-unquote backbone of business (software development) but is still trading at a premium to the Bitcoin it owns, exemplifying maximum stupidity in markets.
“a company that lost over $400 Million last quarter from its quote unquote backbone of business you know software development lost money but yet is still trading at a premium to the Bitcoin it does own”
America survived four years of Trump presidency before, demonstrating that the claims that Trump's election would be the end of America, end of democracy were nonsensical, and this realization has created fatigue and acceptance about Trump 2.0 rather than the chaos narrative of the first term.
“America survived four years of trump presidency they've done it before they can do it again you know this idea that this was going to be in any way a kind of end of day's event was just nonsensical frankly um so I think there's that I think there's this this realization now that okay the election's over um and we're stuck with it but realistically that whole thing was complete nonsense America Will Survive so there's a little bit of kind of fatigue about the election weariness about all the hyperbole that was used”
10-20 years ago it would have been unthinkable to imagine the US or Europe breaking up, but that has changed—if things continue down the current path, Blue States seceding or Texas seceding are not off the table anymore.
“Europe could break up tomorrow and the United States given what's going on um you know if if things continue down this path could you see Blue State seceding could you see Texas seceding you know none of this stuff is off the table if You've asked me this stuff 10 years ago maybe 20 years ago I said no no no chance at all I mean very comfortable with that I'm not saying it's going to happen but I could not say with any degree of comfort or certainty that there's a 0% chance it happens”
One should approach 2025 with an open mind and not dismiss extreme scenarios out of hand; even scenarios that seem nonsensical deserve consideration rather than reflexive dismissal.
“the the biggest thing I think you can do going into 2025 is just open your mind as wide as you possibly can and no matter how extreme the scenario seems take time to think about it don't just dismiss it you know it's funny I I did a podcast probably two years ago with a terrific guy called David dor we spoke about uh uaps this was at least two years ago and it was a fascinating conversation and I got a ton of emails from people listening to say look you know I love the podcast but what the hell was this all about why are you talking about UFOs or uaps um I just say cuz it's an interesting conversation”
Real change—to monetary systems, Western living standards, affordability of daily goods—is what drives political and systemic change, creates pressures within countries, and can lead to succession movements (US states seceding, countries leaving the EU).
“real change real change to the monetary system real change to the quality of Western living standards uh real change to the affordability of daily Goods you know the the kind of change that does Drive political change it does Drive systemic change unfortunately does create pressures within a country um whether it's kind of sucession in the United States or whether it's uh countries wanting to leave the EU these are the kind of points in time with those kind of pressures the the pressures that seem Unthinkable when you've just only known a country a certain way um these things think seem Unthinkable to you but you know Europe could break up tomorrow and the United States given what's going on um you know if if things continue down this path could you see Blue State seceding could you see Texas seceding you know none of this stuff is off the table”
The relationship between Silicon Valley and the Trump administration is one of pure expediency and power consolidation on both sides, not ideological alignment; tech billionaires chose Trump because they saw he would win and because they feared Biden government censorship and control attempts.
“on the technology side this is not any kind of um great love for the Republican party this is I think driven by two things this is uh we want to be on the side of the winners and they could see the writing on the wall they could see that Trump was going to win this election um and I suspect there was a a backlash against um the incumbent government the Democratic the Biden government's kind of reach into technology to try and censor it and to try and control it”
The 1971 monetary system change (Nixon closing the gold window) was much more of a stealth change than Bretton Woods because it changed the system fundamentally but not in a way that is readily understood by people.
“and really 1971 um when Nixon closed the old window and that second one was much more of a stealth change in the monetary system um it changed it fundamentally but not in a way that is readily understood by people because you know the currency FX rate between the deut mark and the pound shifted dramatically”
Long-term value investing is a dying art and the group of people who still practice these ideals represents the distillation of the craft, with many investors having become momentum investors and changed styles with changes in market taste.
“and as that art is dying out it's incredible actually the distillation down to the the people that still practice these these kind of long forgotten but deeply cherished ideals um are the very essence of The Craft and so you know we've had a lot of people come and go and become value investors and then shift the momentum investors and and and change their Style with with the changes in in the the taste of the investing public and that's just left this kind of core group of of you know dieh hard old school value investors and and it's a really unfashionable place to be right now and I totally understand that”
Scott Bassent worked as an investment officer under George Soros in the 1980s, giving him relevant experience in managing large financial portfolios and understanding macro investing.
“he was a investment officer under Soros um uh I think it was back in the 80s I if I remember correctly I might be wrong”
This is a fantastic speculators market with many ways to get involved and seemingly daily new and clever ways to get more leverage around bets, but for long-term investors it is a much trickier landscape where buying is risky given fundamental overvaluation.
“so you know this is a fantastic speculators Market um and if you're a Speculator there are so many ways you can get involved and and seemingly on a daily basis people are finding new and clever ways to give you more leverage around those bets you're making um and it's a great time if you're a Speculator to be diving in with both feet”
Hall raised the concern that the Trump administration could face headwinds from the economic establishment using BLS revisions, recession declarations, and other data to make Trump's presidency difficult, similar to first-term obstacles.
“I always kept on thinking okay what's okay if if if Trump comes back in for a second term obviously the quote unquote DC establishment is at a loss what else do they have to maybe make things difficult for Donald Trump in his second term and I keep coming back at like the The Economic Institutions could be used as you know a headwind for Trump if the establishment wants it to and I know this is kind of getting a little bit more conspiracy type of thought than i' typically like to do but it is some thought about what what type of I guess challenges could The Establishment pose to Trump to make his life a living hell for another four years”
Meme coins like Hawk coin have lost 93% of their value in a matter of hours, exemplifying the speculative mania and lack of fundamental support in current cryptocurrency markets.
“with these speculative meme coins you know uh Hawk the hawk coin losing 93% of its quote unquote value in a matter of hours I mean what possibly who who didn't see this coming you know”
The Buffett indicator (US stock market to GDP ratio) is currently at 207, which is a record high and double the widely-accepted overvalued threshold of 100, indicating extreme market overvaluation.
“the buffet indicator is quite telling right now uh a record high uh in fact it's almost double that's what Mr Warren would call overvalued um the for people listening maybe unfamiliar the buffet indicators the US Stock Market to GDP ratio which currently sits at 207 uh it's that's what I said record high anything above 100 is considered overvalued”
Post-Ukraine and post-freezing of Russian and Central Bank assets, there has been an implicit shift in global Central Bank policy toward 'every man for himself' because central banks realized there isn't a magic fire hose from a country doing well that can bail out the rest of the world.
“there's a there's an implicit shift here that's happened post uh post Ukraine and post the the freezing of these Russian and Central Bank assets there's much more of an every man for himself undercurrent to to Central Bank policy now because I think everybody's realized that when push comes to shove um there isn't there isn't a magic fire hose somewhere from a country that's doing really really well that can bail out the rest of the world”
It feels like we may need a wipeout in the stock market and crypto markets just so we can take it away from people as the only option for growth and recapitalize into foundational growth opportunities in infrastructure, innovation, and productive investment.
“it almost seems Grant like we almost feel like we need a wipeout in the market just so we can take it away from people as the only option for growth uh and I know that is a controversial thing to say I will I will leave it for a year-end podcast to say that but it almost seems like we need the stock market and the speculative crypto coins to just cease to be an option so we can take recapitalize into foundational growth opportunities”
Gold will likely be at the center of the next monetary system reset as an anchor that is independent of all currency swirling around it, necessary to stabilize the system, though over the long run a proper gold standard constrains nations too much.
“I suspect certainly in the initial stages and I've talked about this for years now gold will be at the center of it because it kind of has to be you need an anchor that's independent of all the currency swirling around it to just to get the system stabilized in the long run that probably doesn't work because of the restraints it puts on on Nations if you have a you know a proper gold standard in place but as a as a stabilizing Force at the center of of at least a discussion about how we reset the the global monetary system I think Gold's place is going to be an imperative”
A market wipeout might be necessary to remove stock market speculation and crypto as growth options for capital, forcing recapitalization into foundational growth opportunities like infrastructure, productivity, and real productive capacity.
“but it almost seems like we need the stock market and the speculative crypto coins to just cease to be an option so we can take recapitalize into foundational growth opportunities”
The next monetary system will likely not be as solely hegemonic as the US dollar system, because multiple other countries now have vested interests as a block in not letting the US have it all its own way.
“after that we'll transition away back to another currency system I doubt it will be as as solely hegemonic as the US dollar system has been because there are too many other countries now with a vested interest not necessarily on their own but as a block to to let the US have it all their own way”
People should question the long-term stability of every major institution of which they are a part—town, county, state, country, financial system, world order—because if we are in a Fourth Turning as Neil Howe contends, fundamental change to all systems is possible within a few years.
“and and question the long-term uh stability of every big organization every big system of which you're a part of and that that includes you know your your town your county your state your country um the financial system the world operates in all of this stuff um if we are in a fourth turning as as Neil how contends and I certainly believe having read his and Bill strauss's incredible work all of these things can change all of them and our Our Lives could be very very different in a few years time to how they are now”
On the GDP growth component, if nominal GDP reaches 3% with 4-5% inflation through continued rate cuts, there is a 'tail to be spun' to the electorate that the 333 goal is met, even though real growth would be minimal, and voters won't distinguish between nominal and real GDP.
“can you get 3% growth well possibly nominally you know nominally if if if inflation starts to crank up which if they keep cutting rates the way they are now it probably will uh you know there there's a story to be spun there if you get nominal GDP to 3% um with you know four 5% inflation um you know there's there's at least a tail to be spun there to the people it matters to which is to say the electorate and of the electorate you know the vast majority will take at face value the fact that oh great you they're not going to make distinction between nominal and real they're going to go great GDP is up 3% we got 3 million more barrels of oil coming online you know two out of three ain't bad”
Every Treasury bond that doesn't get bought is a problem for the US Treasury, and the Treasury Department will likely struggle to price anything in the 10-30 year range on the curve unless conversations have been had with friendly central banks beforehand.
“you know every one of those treasury bonds that um that doesn't get bought um is a is a problem is a problem for the US Treasury so I think they're going to have their work cut out I really do I think they're going to really struggle to to price anything at the you know past 10 years um and in some ways almost the worst thing that could happen is they could try and the auction goes poorly”
A Trump administration might face economic headwinds that the establishment creates through use of economic institutions and data; however, Trump has shown he can turn such challenges into rallying cries against the 'deep state' rather than being hamstrung by them.
“my gut reaction to that is you know Trump thrives on this idea of being the underdog who's being you know thrown under the bus by various people whether it's the you know Department of Justice or the FBI or whatever it may be and you know the kind of support he has certainly in the short term if if people feel like they're doing better the kind of support he has to demonize the BLS or the baa or the MBR if they if they claim recession you know I I see them as a rallying cry for Trump and ultimately they're nameless faceless bureaucrats and a lot of people don't know what the BLS is”
The Fed cutting rates with markets at record highs and unemployment low suggests either the Fed genuinely believes rate cuts are appropriate in this environment or it is more worried about the government's ability to finance its obligations than about inflation risk.
“the fact that the fomc are cutting rates right now with with markets where they are tells you one of two things they either honestly believe that cutting rates is a good idea with animal spirits desde unemployment this low or they're more worried about um about the government's ability to finance its obligations and that is not an environment generally speaking where stock prices go to the moon”
There is a tangible cultural shift toward a 'Trump turn' where people are glad to be able to make fun of things and say what they feel without fear of persecution, representing a move back toward the middle rather than a shift to the right.
“there's a huge swing going on here and and I don't think that swing is going to go far right you know as as the left would like to believe everyone's going to turn into a complete na I think that's complete nonsense this is a move back towards the Middle where you know America particularly which you know I've been I've been visiting now for gosh 50 years and it's always been in my experience a a an open welcoming tolerant country”
China is not doing what it was doing the last time we had global problems and cannot jump in as the fireman; the US certainly isn't; Europe is a complete basket case; therefore no sovereign will take a bullet for the US anymore just to support long-term US debt issuance.
“China is not doing what it was doing the last time we had any kind of global problems and could could jump in and be the fireman the US certainly isn't Europe complete basket case so if you're a if you're a sovereign you need to be thinking about self-sufficiency you need to be thinking about okay what's in our best interests purely our best interest and if those align with other people then great but I don't think anyone's going to take a bullet for the us anymore and say well you know probably buying 20 year us debts not in our best interest but they need our support there will be a few who who continue to think that way but there will be people peeling off the other end that just saying you know what we're just not in a position to do that anymore”
Williams would be very surprised if the Treasury can shift duration anywhere to the right on the yield curve in the short term due to structural constraints and lack of willing buyers.
“I'd be very very surprised if they were able to shift the duration anywhere to the right in the short term very surprised”
Steven Wilkinson believes we are alongside the land cycle, war cycle, stock market cycle, and creative waves that overlap, near the end of the nation state cycle, with the idea that the nation state may not be the right formation for mankind to organize themselves anymore.
“I had a fascinating conversation um with my good friend Steven Wilkinson recently about this and and he after doing a lot of uh historical research on this stuff he believes that we are alongside the land cycle and the war cycle and stock market Cycles the crative wayes and all these overlapping cycles that kind of meet in various places the big one that he's watching is he thinks this may be near the end of the nation state cycle this idea that the nation state is the right formation for for mankind to organize themselves under could be coming to the end”
Russell Neer believes we are on the precipice of a major change in the monetary system that will likely continue to be dominated by the US dollar but will change fundamentally in how it works.
“Russell really feels like we are on the precipice of a major change in a monetary system most likely continue to be dominated by something that would have the US dollar”
Real systemic change—not just electoral cycling—involves changes to the monetary system, Western living standards, and affordability of daily goods; such changes create pressures that can lead to secession movements and institutional breakdown.
“real change real change to the monetary system real change to the quality of Western living standards uh real change to the affordability of daily Goods you know the the kind of change that does Drive political change it does Drive systemic change unfortunately does create pressures within a country um whether it's kind of sucession in the United States or whether it's uh countries wanting to leave the EU these are the kind of points in time with those kind of pressures”
Massive revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have occurred in the last six months and more decent-sized revisions are expected to come, suggesting employment data is overstated.
“we've seen some massive revisions from the BLS in the last six months massive revisions uh and I suspect there are some more decent sized ones to come”
Meme coins like Hawk coin losing 93% of their value in a matter of hours demonstrates that these speculative rallies are not sustainable and the outcomes were predictable.
“Hawk the hawk coin losing 93% of its quote unquote value in a matter of hours I mean what possibly who who didn't see this coming you know”
We've actually already seen this speculative cycle play out two or three years ago, so if you're a 15-year-old investor you've already had a chance to live through this and recognize the pattern.
“we saw it two years ago where we back where we were two or three years ago we it's not like you have to read a history book to to recognize this we we've actually seen it you know if you're if you're a a a 15-year-old inv you've had a chance to live this already”
The Buffett indicator (US stock market capitalization to GDP ratio) currently sits at 207, nearly double what it was when considered overvalued at 100, which is a record high and indicates extreme overvaluation.
“the buffet indicator is quite telling right now uh a record high uh in fact it's almost double that's what Mr Warren would call overvalued um the for people listening maybe unfamiliar the buffet indicators the US Stock Market to GDP ratio which currently sits at 207 uh it's that's what I said record high anything above 100 is considered overvalued”
Russell Neer is absolutely right that this monetary system will fail and it will come as a huge shock to the vast majority of people but no shock at all to people who've read monetary history and understand that this is the nature of things.
“Russell's absolutely right I think Ely this monetary system will fail it will come as a huge shock to the vast majority of people and no shock at all to people who've kind of read monetary history and understand this is just the the nature of things”
The Principled Investor is not an investment service per se but an attempt to talk about the traditional principles of what investing is all about, not speculation but investment, and is focused on long-term generational wealth building through compounding returns.
“the service isn't um it's not an investment Service as such you know this is a this is an attempt to to talk about the the traditional principles of what investing is all around and so you Remy and I are very aware that this is not going to be something that resonates with everybody you know if if you are in the number gar crowd or you're in the mem stock crowd or you're in the you know GameStop AMC and all this kind of stuff and you want to buy leveraged ETFs up on mstr and and you know and just roll the dice this is the last thing you you you you will or should read um but if if you're someone that wants to understand the kind of Bedrock principles of investing true investing not not speculation but but investment and trying to understand how to build long-term generational wealth over time by by compounding returns you know this is something Remy and I care deeply about”
Scott Bassent, the incoming treasury secretary, has proposed a '333 plan' aiming for 3% economic growth, a deficit reduced to 3% of gross domestic product, and an increase in oil production by 3 million barrels per day.
“he has come out with this 333 plan uh aiming for 3% economic growth reduce the deficit to 3% of gross domestic product and increase oil production by 3 million barrels”
The UK Labour government under Keir Starmer had one of the most disastrous first six months in office of any prime minister, with approval ratings as low as any prime minister's ever been at that point, breaking election promises, raising taxes, and upsetting pensioners, workers, and employers.
“disastrous first six months in office I mean disastrous the the approval racings of Kia starm as low as any prime minister's ever been at that point perhaps lower um you know they've already been forced to break a whole bunch of election promises they've already raised taxes they've already upset pensioners and working men and employers”
Trump is unlikely to direct the full power of the US government into hunting down political enemies as feared; rather he will have 'much bigger fish to fry' with more significant policy concerns, making vengeance a lower priority than governance.
“I just don't get the sense that that it's going to be one of Vengeance against everybody and I'm sure Trump has his political enemies but I don't think he's going to direct the full power of the United States government into hunting down those particular enemies I think he's going to have a much much bigger fish to fry um”
2025 may see significant market dislocation, and there are good reasons to believe we won't make it to 2026 before major market ramifications, contrary to the narrative that 2025 will be a big bull year.
“so I you know I think in 2025 there's a lot of people saying 2025 will be uh you know the last kind of big bull year and then 2026 is when the problems start to occur I just don't think we make it to 2026 before we start to see some real ramifications you know and and I've I've always preached caution because I think you know if if you want the bullish narrative it's in your face every single day in every Financial TV show and every Financial publication that's easy to find but you know preaching caution and talking about the things that could go wrong um and why they might go wrong and why they might matter is you know to me a far more useful thing for me to do than be a voice in the in increas bullish Crow”
The problem is that you've now reached the point where you're probably going to have to disappoint expectations that stock markets always go up, and if you don't disappoint them voluntarily through policy, the market will do it for you through a crash.
“you've now reached the point where you're probably going to have to disappoint some of those expectations and if you don't disappoint them then the market is going to do it for you”
The idea of a resetting nation state cycle and move toward regional autonomy is how things started historically and is worthy of consideration alongside other systemic reset ideas like new monetary systems or gold standards or BRICS alliance, though people dismiss it as going too far.
“you know do we do do countries go back to much smaller countries to to Regions that are autonomous um you know and and and this is such an interesting idea to think about um because it's not new you know it's how things started and and we're quite happy to talk about resetting all kinds of things but the basic fundamental way in which we organize our societies is something that people go well that's just a step too far and maybe it is but it's as worthy of your consideration as a new monetary system is or a gold standard or or the bricks Alliance”
Powerful technology billionaires don't like to be controlled by anybody whether left or right, and the tie-up between Trump and Musk or Silicon Valley is purely a marriage of convenience, not an ideological crusade about the future of America.
“I just don't think that powerful technology billionaires like to be controlled by anybody um whether it be left or right and I would say that the the kind of the tie up between Trump and musk or or Trump and the and Silicon Valley is one of expediency for both sides I think um I think at any point in this process Trump will dump musk will jump teal will jump dump all these guys if if it's politically expedient for him to do so and they will they will sever TI with ch if he comes after them with any kind of legislation they don't like you know this is this is purely a marriage of convenience”
The classical American ideal—family, Christian faith, freedom, liberty, unity in diversity—had become so qualified with exceptions and footnotes that the foundational vision was obscured, and the current movement represents a desire to return to clarity rather than acceptance of extreme ideologies.
“you know the the Christian American family um one nation under God indivisible and with liberty and justice for all that very simple idea upon which America was founded kind of over the years developed a whole lot of asterisks all the way through it and you had to read the footnotes to try and see what it is and I think this is a return back to that”
When systemic change occurs, we must go through 'quicksand' to get from the current system to a rebuilt better version, and this transition period will be difficult but ultimately result in improvement.
“when that happens it's something we're going to have to get used to and and it will ultimately be a good thing the system purges and starts to rebuild and we build it back better than we you know this is the real build back better we build it back better than the system that we tore down but we have to go through you know quicksand to get from here to there”
People should be skeptical of the ability to achieve growth without significant government structural reforms, and both Democrats and Republicans promise growth but use different mechanisms, yet all governments promise it without stating the real costs.
“look I think um I think if you can find a government in history that that didn't promise they were going to bring growth and you know improve business and you know we we've got different ways of doing it but the outcomes are always or the the ultimate aims are always the same and every government no one comes and says look we're going to cut growth and uh increase um Social Security and run up the deficits no government ever says that”
Grant Williams is launching a new investment service called 'The Principled Investor' with his co-founders Remy Tito, who writes the Mad King investment letter, that will be launched in Q4 2024 but likely pushed back to Q1 2025.
“this is something that I'm I'm um working on with Remy Tito who writes uh the Mad King investment letter which is just terrific terrific stuff and Remy was one of my co-founders at real vision and um the service isn't launched yet we it's going to be fourth quarter this year it'll probably pushed back to first quarter next year”
The Democrats have essentially given up during the transition, with energy focused on working out pardons and protecting people from a Trump Administration rather than fighting back or governing.
“the Democrats have almost given up you know they they're they're they're hunkered down working out who they're going to Pardon and all these kind of crazy things we're seeing come out they're working out how to protect um whoever they feel needs protecting from from a trump Administration”
This Trump turn is not moving far right toward Nazism but rather a move back toward the middle where America returns to being an open, welcoming, tolerant country focused on traditional American ideals of the family, Christian faith, freedom, and liberty, with fewer asterisks and footnotes added to the founding principle of 'one nation under God indivisible with liberty and justice for all.'
“this is a move back towards the Middle where you know America particularly which you know I've been I've been visiting now for gosh 50 years and it's always been in my experience a a an open welcoming tolerant country and and yes we all know there is a history of racial tension in America and yes it's definitely there as an undercurrent um but for the most part Americans are are are people who want to you know uh live a happy life be able to chase the American dream”
The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee is cutting rates right now with markets at record levels and unemployment low tells us that either they honestly believe cutting rates is good in this environment, or they're more worried about the government's ability to finance its obligations, neither of which is an environment where stock prices go to the moon.
“the fact that the fomc are cutting rates right now with with markets where they are tells you one of two things they either honestly believe that cutting rates is a good idea with animal spirits desde unemployment this low or they're more worried about um about the government's ability to finance its obligations and that is not an environment generally speaking where stock prices go to the moon”
Trump will likely be far less vengeful than people suspect against his political enemies and won't direct the full power of the United States government into hunting down those enemies because he has much bigger fish to fry.
“I just don't get the sense that that it's going to be one of Vengeance against everybody and I'm sure Trump has his political enemies but I don't think he's going to direct the full power of the United States government into hunting down those particular enemies I think he's going to have a much much bigger fish to fry”
Trump thrives on being the underdog who's being thrown under the bus by various people and institutions, so if the establishment tries to undermine him through negative economic data, it will likely backfire and he can rally people by demonizing the BLS or other 'nameless faceless bureaucrats' as part of a Deep State conspiracy.
“my gut reaction to that is you know Trump thrives on this idea of being the underdog who's being you know thrown under the bus by various people whether it's the you know Department of Justice or the FBI or whatever it may be and you know the kind of support he has certainly in the short term if if people feel like they're doing better the kind of support he has to demonize the BLS or the baa or the MBR if they if they claim recession you know I I see them as a rallying cry for Trump”
There is a Trump turn in cultural mood showing a tangible willingness to challenge what has been acceptable and unacceptable over the last 16 years, with people glad they can make fun of stuff again and say what they feel without fear of persecution.
“there's a feel in America particularly that um this uh this Trump turn as I call it in in the cultural mood in the in the kind of willingness to um challenge what has been acceptable and unacceptable in a growing way over over the last sort of 16 years um it's it's tangible you know you can see that people are kind of glad that we can make fun of stuff again and we can say what we feel without fear of being persecuted”
America will heal from its current cultural divisions, though the process may be painful, and it will heal much faster than people expect—not in the way it healed after the Civil War (with centuries of ongoing division) but through faster cultural reconciliation.
“and um and it will heal and and it while it may be a painful process um I think it'll heal much quicker than than people think and hopefully not not in the way it it healed back in 1864 you know”
People should open their minds as wide as possible and not dismiss extreme scenarios out of hand—no matter how extreme something seems, take time to think about it rather than dismissing it, though some things can still be identified as nonsense quickly.
“everybody um listening to this the the biggest thing I think you can do going into 2025 is just open your mind as wide as you possibly can and no matter how extreme the scenario seems take time to think about it don't just dismiss it you know it's funny I I did a podcast probably two years ago with a terrific guy called David dor we spoke about uh uaps this was at least two years ago and it was a fascinating conversation and I got a ton of emails from people listening to say look you know I love the podcast but what the hell was this all about why are you talking about UFOs”
Trump has been unusually visible as a president-elect, stepping into the vacuum created by Biden's absence, and has effectively been treated as president since November rather than waiting until January 20th, suggesting the public and establishment have already ceded power transition.
“I don't remember in my lifetime seeing a more visible President elect than Trump has been you know he's he's stepped into the vacuum created by Joe Biden's absence and he's been an absent president let's face it whichever sigh of the spectrum you fall on it's very difficult to to refute the idea that Biden's been an absent president and Trump has stepped into that void and it's been fascinating to watch him basically be treated like the president of the United States um from November not from January 20th it doesn't seem like anyone's waiting for January 20th”
Williams has preached caution and discussed downside risks while others provide consensus bullish narratives; this approach is more useful because the bullish narrative is already ubiquitous in financial media, while balanced risk communication is harder to find and more valuable to investors.
“I've always preached caution because I think you know if if you want the bullish narrative it's in your face every single day in every Financial TV show and every Financial publication that's easy to find but you know preaching caution and talking about the things that could go wrong um and why they might go wrong and why they might matter is you know to me a far more useful thing for me to do than be a voice in the in increas bullish Crow”
We'll have to go through 'quicksand' to get from here to the coming systemic rebuild, meaning there will be a difficult transition period before the new system stabilizes.
“we have to go through you know quicksand to get from here to there”
If we are in a 'fourth turning' as Neil Howe contends, and Williams believes we are based on his reading of Howe and Bill Strauss's work, then all of these systems can change and our lives could be very different in a few years' time, and when it happens we'll have to get used to it, and it will ultimately be a good thing as the system purges and rebuilds.
“if we are in a fourth turning as as Neil how contends and I certainly believe having read his and Bill strauss's incredible work all of these things can change all of them and our Our Lives could be very very different in a few years time to how they are now and when that happens it's something we're going to have to get used to and and it will ultimately be a good thing the system purges and starts to rebuild and we build it back better than we you know this is the real build back better”
Williams believes the market will see real ramifications in 2025, not 2026 as some have predicted, due to the current extension and fundamentally disconnected valuations.
“I think in 2025 there's a lot of people saying 2025 will be uh you know the last kind of big bull year and then 2026 is when the problems start to occur I just don't think we make it to 2026 before we start to see some real ramifications”
The Democratic establishment and mainstream media appear exhausted by the political fight, having 'given up' as evidenced by their focus on pardons and protections rather than resistance, suggesting resignation to Trump 2.0.
“the Democrats have almost given up you know they they're they're hunkered down working out who they're going to Pardon and all these kind of crazy things we're seeing come out they're working out how to protect um whoever they feel needs protecting from from a trump Administration”
Every big organization and system you're part of—your town, county, state, country, financial system, world you operate in—should be subject to questioning about its long-term stability.
“question the long-term uh stability of every big organization every big system of which you're a part of and that that includes you know your your town your county your state your country um the financial system the world operates in all of this stuff”
America survived four years of Trump presidency and survived before, so the narrative that Trump being elected would be the end of America or democracy was nonsensical.
“America survived four years of trump presidency they've done it before they can do it again you know this idea that this was going to be in any way a kind of end of day's event was just nonsensical frankly”
The Principled Investor service is being launched with Remy Tito (author of Mad King Investment Letter and Real Vision co-founder) to teach traditional investment principles and long-term value investing rather than speculation.
“I mean this is this is something that I'm I'm um working on with Remy Tito who writes uh the Mad King investment letter which is just terrific terrific stuff and Remy was one of my co-founders at real vision and um the service isn't launched yet we it's going to be fourth quarter this year it'll probably pushed back to first quarter next year”
Williams preaches caution because if you want the bullish narrative it's in your face every single day in every Financial TV show and publication, so it's more useful to talk about what could go wrong and why it might matter rather than being another voice in the increasingly bullish crowd.
“I've always preached caution because I think you know if if you want the bullish narrative it's in your face every single day in every Financial TV show and every Financial publication that's easy to find but you know preaching caution and talking about the things that could go wrong um and why they might go wrong and why they might matter is you know to me a far more useful thing for me to do than be a voice in the in increas bullish Crow”
The Republican Party realized they needed to harness the power of the technology sector to amplify their message and at least prevent technology from working actively against them as it had in the past.
“the the Republicans realized they needed to harness the power of the technology sector in order to get their message across in order to you know amplify messages on social media whatever it may be they realize they need the power of the technology sector behind them or at least at the very least not working actively against them which you know you could say they have been in the past”
Russell Neer's article in American Affairs about monetary system failure is 'maybe one of the most fascinating articles I read all year' and it's 'incredible' in explaining how monetary systems fail every 40-60 years.
“Russell neer's latest article in in uh American Affairs I'm sure you read it yeah I actually will I want to give Russell a ton of credit that might have been one of the most fascinating articles I read all year it's just incredible”
America will heal from its current political and cultural divisions much quicker than people think, as it is the greatest country in the world, though the process may be painful.
“America's going to take a while to heal but it will heal it's a it's the greatest country in the world and um and it will heal and and it while it may be a painful process um I think it'll heal much quicker than than people think”