What this covers
Doomberg frames geopolitical conflict and economic ordering through a single analytical lens: energy supply and demand. In this conversation with Monetary Metals, he argues that starting analysis from primary energy consumption—rather than ideology, trade flows, or military posture—explains far more of the variance in world events, and that this framework reveals what mainstream markets and policymakers systematically miss. The discussion moves through three interconnected territories: the Ukraine war as a proxy for US-Russia competition over energy vassal states; the structural decline of Europe as a self-inflicted competency crisis rooted in energy ignorance; and the quiet repricing of gold as it replaces Western debt instruments as a neutral settlement asset for international trade, particularly among BRICS nations.
Doomberg ranges widely across the grid infrastructure that undergirds modern civilization. He distinguishes between the advertised capacity of renewables and their actual output (solar averaging 20–25% capacity factor versus nuclear's 90%+), argues that natural gas and nuclear form the ideal grid foundation, and predicts that AI's energy demands will spawn dedicated off-grid power plants rather than strain existing systems. On commodity pricing and the dollar's trajectory, he frames gold's rise not as speculative enthusiasm but as measurement of the dollar's decline, with Shanghai positioned as the eventual settlement hub for gold trades outside the Western sphere. He also advances several positions likely to provoke disagreement: that the Ukraine war was decided by Russian energy abundance and attrition capacity rather than Western support; that Europe's future is dimmed by structural inability to fix its energy deficit; and that the US will pursue sphere-of-influence competition across the Americas, making ventures in Venezuela and other energy-rich regions matters of national strategy rather than drug enforcement.
Doomberg argues that energy is the master variable explaining geopolitics, that we are in an unacknowledged 'World War III' shifting toward a sphere-of-influence world, and that gold's rise is really the dollar's fall as gold replaces Western debt as a neutral reserve settlement asset.
- Starting analysis from energy supply/demand explains geopolitical variance better than any other variable
- Europe's decline is a self-inflicted 'competency crisis' rooted in energy ignorance
- Gold is being repriced upward because it is replacing US/European debt as a neutral reserve asset, especially among BRICS
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Two common sleights of hand misrepresent renewables: (1) treating free fuel as meaning cheap power (ignoring all other operating costs, as with near-free uranium fuel for nuclear), and (2) quoting installed capacity (watts) rather than capacity factor (watt-hours), since commercial solar averages only 20-25% capacity factor versus nuclear's 90%+.
“because the fuel is free it must be cheap. Um the cost of the fuel is just one input into the cost of using the fuel to operate the grid.”
Total global energy consumption reliably trends up and to the right because human progress is a constant struggle against entropy requiring primary energy; plotting exajoules of primary energy consumed from 1965 to today yields an R-squared of 0.99, and all energy sources are additive rather than substitutive.
“The human endeavor is a constant unrelenting struggle against the forces of entropy. You need primary energy to waste heat in order to impose order on your local environment.”
Starting geopolitical and economic analysis from energy explains far more of the variance in world events than almost any other variable, because energy is life and hydrocarbons are a key input into global standards of living; this is a mental model worth using even if you don't believe it because it works.
“one of the great mysteries of our time is how few huge geopolitical and economics analysts start with energy because it explains so much of the variance of what we see uh in a in a far superior way to almost any other variable”
Europe's energy crisis is fundamentally a competency crisis rooted in energy ignorance among its leaders, not a structural dilemma; the EU consumes 38 exajoules of hydrocarbons while producing only 5, making it an energy vassal, whereas the US produces ~20 exajoules more than it consumes and can turn off the taps.
“it's literally nothing more than a competency crisis especially in Europe. Uh Ursula Vanderland does not understand physics.”
The US is not providing cheap energy to Europe but expensive energy: Europe traded ~$4-5/MMBtu pipeline gas from Russia for ~$11/MMBtu landed LNG, roughly double the price, decimating European heavy industry while US energy manufacturers profit.
“the US is not providing cheap energy to Europe. It's providing expensive energy to Europe... So you traded four $5 per million BTU relatively cheap abundant consistent supply via pipeline from Russia for $11 per million BTU landed LG. That's double the price.”
The net settlement vehicle for gold trades among BRICS and outside the US sphere of influence will be Shanghai (the Shanghai physical exchange), which became internationalized in 2014 just ahead of Russia dumping its Treasuries and buying gold—not a coincidence.
“It's going to be in Shanghai... the Shanghai physical exchange... when that became sort of internationalized in 2014, just ahead of when Russia started dumping its treasuries and buying gold. We don't think that was a coincidence.”
Existing electricity grids cannot absorb the new demand from AI data centers without devastating price impacts on consumers and industry, so the result will be off-grid dedicated power plants ('pods' where natural gas goes in one side and data comes out the other), built where it's politically feasible like Texas, Western Canada, Qatar, and Malaysia.
“it is inconceivable that existing grids could absorb this new demand. the impact on price would be uh devastating to consumers and traditional uh industrial uh sectors and so therefore it can't happen.”
The Ukraine war is better understood as a Western-involved civil war: the four disputed regions (Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia) voted 70-90%+ for the pro-Russian candidate in the 2010 election and are culturally/linguistically Russian, having been grouped into Ukraine by Stalin.
“the four disputed regions voted anywhere from 70 to 90 plus% for the pro-Russian candidate”
The rising gold price is actually a falling US dollar measured in gold, driven by gold replacing US and European debt as the neutral reserve asset for settling international trade imbalances—especially among BRICS—which means gold probably needs to be significantly higher in dollar terms; the US itself has an interest in revaluing the dollar against gold to gain refinancing wiggle room on its short-term debt.
“it's not the price of gold that's moving, it's the price of the US dollar. In other words, how many ounces of gold does the US dollar buy you? that number is shrinking”
The long-term real price of all commodities trends lower, but periodic 'super spikes' occur because demand for energy molecules is highly inelastic; producers make enormous profits during spikes and tread water during the price collapse and long supply-gestation periods that follow.
“the long-term real price of all commodities is lower, but every once in a while you see a super spike because the demand for those molecules is highly inelastic. And when you see a super spike, you make gods of money”
Western stock markets do a poor job of discounting national security risk, which flows into the broader failure to treat energy as a key analytical variable.
“one thing that Western stock markets do very poorly is is they they do a poor job of discounting national security risk and and I think that flows into the lack of analysis of energy as a key variable”
Wind and solar are unnecessary parasites on an existing grid because their intermittency forces grids to maintain dispatchable backup, and as inverter-based resources they lack the spinning-turbine inertia that lets grids ride out small faults, making collapses like Spain's (60%+ solar at the time) more likely; wind+solar+batteries is a fantasy grid that will never manifest.
“wind and solar which we would characterize as unnecessary parasites to an existing grid because they bring entropic um characteristics that make the grids harder to operate because they're intermittent”
Russia was always going to win the Ukraine war as a grinding war of attrition because it produces vastly more energy than it needs, can simply halt exports before starving its military, has five times the population, and is backstopped by China; targeting Russian refineries only hurts global consumers.
“once that counteroffensive failed, it was very clear that this had converted to a grinding war of attrition and Russia was always going to win that war. Um it produces vastly more energy.”
Russia's global standing will be embellished rather than diminished by the Ukraine war, because its perceived victory over the 'colonialist West' will be read as a shattering defeat to NATO, and history is written by the winners.
“quite the reverse, it is going to be embellished by its perceived victory over the um you know the colonialist west... it'll be a shattering defeat to NATO and um you know, history's written by the winners.”
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has diminished in importance because it was created when the US was a major net energy importer before the shale revolution; today the US is the largest producer of gas, NGLs, and crude oil and could simply halt exports in a true emergency, making the reserve largely redundant.
“the strategic petroleum reserve was conceived and created and filled when the US was a net energy importer of consequence before the shale revolution and the shale revolution has reduced the need for such a strategic petroleum reserve”
US 'war on the cartels' in Mexico and Colombia and potential conflict in Venezuela are fundamentally about securing oil resources for Western super-majors (e.g., Chevron, ExxonMobil) rather than drug enforcement; the Donbas has no core US strategic interest but Venezuela does.
“the obviously the potential war in Venezuela is all about oil and the bailout of Malay is all about oil”
China's electric vehicle push is critically important for China's own energy/national-security strategy, but China 'fooled' the rest of the world—especially North America—into believing EVs were equally critical for them.
“Critically important for China and then China fooled the rest of the world into thinking it could be critically important for them especially North America.”
Silver is not a monetary metal but an industrial metal with a 'monetary echo': central banks don't store it in quantity, its supply is relatively inelastic because it's often co-produced in mines, and its demand is driven by industry and fluctuates.
“we don't really consider silver a monetary metal. It is an industrial metal with a monetary echo. Um, central banks aren't storing silver in great quantities.”
Natural gas is the ideal grid fuel because it can serve as both base load and rapidly dispatchable power, enabling grid operators to exactly match supply and demand, with nuclear (immortal, ~90%+ capacity factor, cheap fuel, base load) as the second-best foundation; the ideal grid is base-load nuclear supplemented by dispatchable natural gas.
“natural gas is kind of the ideal fuel um because it is capable of of both being a base load source of power and is readily dispatchable”
The European Union will not survive the end of the Ukraine war in its current state, because none of the necessary energy fixes (restarting Russian gas, legalizing fracking, salvaging German nuclear, reviving North Sea and Dutch gas fields) will happen, and the Ukraine situation will drive territorial wedges between Ukraine and Poland, Romania, and Hungary.
“we don't think the European Union survives the end of the Ukraine war, at least not in its current state. I think you're going to see countries begin to break away from it.”
We are in an undeclared 'World War III' in which NATO has suffered military defeat in Ukraine and the US has suffered economic defeat to China; the next phase will be aggressive US moves across Central and South America, ultimately producing a classic sphere-of-influence world.
“we believe that NATO has suffered military defeat in um Ukraine and that the United States has suffered an economic defeat at the hands of China in the economic war. Both of these are phases of World War II.”
Trump's talk of annexing Canada as the 51st state was a maneuver to install Mark Carney and unstick Alberta's energy, not a genuine annexation goal; whereas acquiring Greenland is a serious, long-held strategic objective more likely to happen in some form than analysts assume.
“We believe Canada and the 51st state talk was all about maneuvering behind the scenes to get Mark Kernney in.”
The best real-time signal of geopolitical stress is when the price of landed LNG and Brent crude deviate from each other on an energy-content basis (multiplying by 5.8 because there are 5.8 million BTUs in a barrel of Brent), a pair trade that has been a leading indicator of crisis.
“the one on the board that has been the leading indicator of crisis is when the price of land at LNG and brand crew deviate from each other on an energy content basis. I I multiply by 5.8 because there's 5.8 million BTUs in a barrel of Brent.”
There is a recurring political-economic pattern where oil and gas companies build infrastructure during Republican administrations and make money during Democratic administrations, when supply constraints push prices higher; this is why a Trump second term is bearish for oil and gas producers in the short term.
“The oil and gas companies get to build stuff during Republican administrations and then they get to make money during Democratic administrations.”
The most underrated energy trend is engine switching to accommodate cheap natural gas, displacing heat production traditionally done by diesel, gasoline, and potentially jet fuel.
“engine switching to accommodate cheap natural gas and displace um the production of heat that had typically been done by diesel and gasoline and potentially even jet fuel”
The gold-to-oil ratio (the number of barrels an ounce of gold buys, plotted over 50 years) is instructive and signifies substantial change in both energy and global trading markets, because behind-the-scenes deals are increasingly pricing oil and gold together.
“the gold to oil ratio is pretty instructive and signify substantial change in both the energy markets and the uh international um you know global trading markets”
The Middle East will likely thread the needle into relative neutrality and peace because conflict there is in nobody's interest (not China's, the US's, Europe's, or Israel's), while the real action shifts to the Western Hemisphere and Arctic.
“I think physics would say that we're in for a period of relative neutrality and peace in the Middle East... It's in nobody's interest.”
There is no good argument against massive or prolific nuclear expansion.
“What's the best argument against massive or prolific nuclear expansion? There isn't one.”
Germany is the country making the biggest mistake when it comes to energy policy.
“Which country do you think is making the biggest mistake when it comes to energy policy? Easy. Germany.”