Doomberg tells all: The dirtiest secret of the modern economy

Wall Street and their obsession with quarterly profits and low costs-at-all-costs hollowed out American manufacturing capacity, which explains the popularity of Trump and the rightward political lurch across the West.

“Wall Street and their obsession with quarterly profits and low cost at all costs um hollowed out American manufacturing and I think explains the popularity of trump I mean this was all very predictable in the past 20 years”

Heavy crude trades at lower prices than light crude despite higher processing costs, due to its abundance and limited refinery compatibility, making it economically disadvantageous for suppliers but attractive for price-optimized refineries.

“heavy grades of crude tend to trade for far lower prices than cleaner grades of crude I.E letter grades of crude”

LNG Canada is set to send its first cargo to markets in 2025; one of the investors is a Chinese state-owned oil company, so Canadian natural gas molecules will likely find their way to China for the first time.

“I'd like to uh make the connection you mentioned China in just a few months time I haven't seen exactly when it seems to be a closely guarded secret the completion of l&g Canada to the point where it's actually sending its first cargo to markets one of the investors is a state owned Oil Company from China so there's a good probability that there will be Canadian natural gas molecules finding their way to China for the first time at least from Canada in 2025”

Europeans discovering that anti-energy sentiment is impossible during energy shortage reveals that energy blindness requires abundance; this is predictable and was predictable.

“as Europe found out during the energy crisis of a few years ago you know once you you run out of even just a bit of it all hell breaks loose um and so um we we've been you know the US is a global Energy gigap power now”

China's strength and Western weakness directly explain much of the contemporary tensions being observed today, including Trump's rhetoric about Greenland and Canada.

“that weakness um and their strength explains much of the the tensions that we're seeing today and all the stuff that Trump is talking about Greenland and Canada”

China is the 'new arsenal of democracy'—producing all critical supply chain elements for solar and wind panels, making this an easy loss leader while it secures dominance in energy and manufacturing.

“they sell all of the critical supply chain elements to the West for solar and wind so it's kind of a easy loss leader for them um no they are a fossil fuels company um China as we say in that presentation is the arsenal of democracy they're the new arsenal of democracy they make everything for the Western militaries”

The US is currently a global energy gigapower, producing 20% of the world's oil, 25% of the world's natural gas, and possessing the largest set of nuclear reactors and world's largest coal reserves.

“the US is a global Energy gigap power now we we produce 20% of the world's oil 25% of the world's natural gas we have the largest uh set of nuclear reactors and operation in the world temporarily at least until China overtakes us and we also are sitting on the world's largest coal reserves”

The appeal of Canadian oil to America is a foundation stone of the Canadian economy; Canada exports a large and growing amount of oil, mostly heavy oil needed by US refineries, which is why Americans can drive cars in large parts of the country.

“the appeal of Canadian Oil to America is a foundation stone of the Canadian economy we export a large and growing amount of oil a lot of it most of it is heavy oil which is needed in the refineries and that's why Americans can drive their cars in large parts of the country”

The US has 10-20 LNG export terminals sending natural gas to Europe and other regions; Canada, despite having abundant gas, remained in the starting blocks while the US catapulted ahead in LNG development.

“the United States that is catapulted itself ahead and now Canada while the US has got how many 10 20 LG export terminals sending natural gas to Europe to get it through the crisis of security that it's seen and to other regions Canada has still been in the starting blocks”

If you build LNG export infrastructure, energy cargos will be bought and burned; 'build it and they will come' applies to energy commodities because demand is infinite relative to supply.

“build it and they will come if there are cargos of energy floating on the ocean they will get bought by somebody and burnt they just will um and any such talk uh about being to the game is I just think um happy talk from no nothings”

Once LNG is on the ocean, it's one global market; price differences between Asian JKM contracts and European TTF contracts motivate arbitrage and transshipment across long distances.

“once you get an energy carrier onto the ocean anywhere that's one big Global Market and so whether the specific molecules end up in China get resold by China go to California um assuming you know anyway or or they end up um crossing the Panama Canal and going to Europe because the price differential between you know the jkm contract in Asia and the Dutch ttf contract in Europe is is motivating and and and covers the cost of shipping um that those long distances once the boats on the water it's gone that's one market um and Arbitrage is a very powerful force”

China's energy use is skyrocketing, coal is the main driver, and the energy crisis of 2022-23 only caused China to dig up more coal and build inventory; China remains a major coal importer despite domestic production.

“their energy use is skyrocketing coal is the main driver of it the energy crisis of 202 23 only um caused China to dig up even more coal and put it in inventory and they're still a major importer of coal by the way”

Many people claim we live in a 'post-resource world' while sipping matcha and talking on their phones—a statement contradicted by the massive material and energy inputs required to produce those goods.

“part of the sort of the second part of my answer to your original question about you know um how can people be what my friend Nate Hain calls um energy blind um part of that explanation also must uh be ascribed to the Shale Revolution you know um the most important question any macroeconomic or geopolitical analyst for that matter should ask themselves when analyzing any situation is is this Market um longer short energy in other words is there abundance of energy or is there a shortage because those are two very different worlds worlds and um the shell Revolution created this period of extreme excess abundance of energy especially in the US and um as I said earlier you know um having a hostile view of the energy sector or even no view of the energy sector can only happen during a period of of energy abundance”

Doomberg advocates for a balanced approach: polluters should be held accountable through legal enforcement, but Wall Street's short-term profit drivers cause corporations to do 'evil, dumb, destructive things' that deserve accountability; however, the broader climate question is unresolvable through policy.

“look there's a balance um I think polluter should be held to account I think industry does itself no favors in this regard by the way I the short-term profit drivers of Wall Street are in fact real and do cause corporations to do evil dumb um destructive things all the time and and we should hold them to account um but to the larger picture of of of the climate question we're just it just to me it's wasted breath we're not going to meaningfully change the way we live for very long”

British Columbia and Alberta are sitting on a 'mountain' of natural gas with 'endless supply'; 'build it and they will come'—if cargos of energy are floating on the ocean, they will be bought and burned by someone; talk of being 'too late' is 'happy talk from no nothings.'

“BC in particular sitting on a mountain of natural gas um an endless supply of natural gas um build it and they will come if there are cargos of energy floating on the ocean they will get bought by somebody and burnt they just will um and any such talk uh about being to the game is I just think um happy talk from no nothings there's no other way to say it”

There is an enormous mountain of coal and tsunami of natural gas and virtually endless supply of oil; even if the West restricts production, prices will skyrocket and induce supply response elsewhere.

“and there's a mountain of coal and a and a tsunami of natural gas and a virtually endless supply of oil um even if we restrict the development of oil and gas and coal in the western world there's enough of it everywhere else and prices will Skyrocket and that will induce a supply response”

Correcting labor exploitation and enforcing proper working conditions globally would be extremely inflationary, which is why it is not being done despite knowledge of the problem.

“normalizing this and correcting this would be extremely inflationary which is why it's not being done”

The 'Church of Carbon' is a term used somewhat playfully (straddling the line between provocative and polarizing) to describe aspects of the climate agenda that are replacing positive societal functions traditionally served by religion in increasingly secular Western societies.

“there are aspects of the climate agenda that seem to be replacing the positive things that a religion brings to you um as the West has become more secular um and I I don't think that's a controversial view I think many people have stated it and so to have a little fun with it”

China is 'the arsenal of democracy'—they make everything for Western militaries; thinking that we can go to war with our suppliers is crazy, yet the West is increasingly treating China as an adversary.

“like China as we say in that presentation is the arsenal of democracy they're the new arsenal of democracy they make everything for the Western militaries and so to think that we can go to war with with our suppliers is is is crazy”

Neither Canada nor the US will run out of oil on any timeframe that matters to anyone listening, because of technological advancement; peak oil is a myth that reflects a sucker's bet against human ingenuity.

“my answer is neither at least not on a Time horizon or time frame that matters to anybody listening here because of Technology yeah look this whole concept of peak oil is a myth something that we wrote about to some controversy a year ago stand by every word of that piece um when you talk about running out of oil what you're really doing is taking a massive short bet on human Ingenuity and that has always been uh a soccer trade”

Everything is attributed to climate change in contemporary debate, making it a hypothesis that cannot be nullified; this makes the climate debate fundamentally unscientific and futile to have.

“far too few people do that and um and so I but everything is climate change every negative thing that happens with the weather a natural disasters climate change and um it it's truly a a hypothesis that cannot be nullified and so it's it it's not scientific um and so I I just argue it's it's futile to even have the debate because we're going to run the experiment”

The OECD (basically Western countries) has cut carbon emissions in the past 20 years while China's have been skyrocketing; if the West is genuinely worried about carbon emissions, it should be negotiating with China, not pursuing unilateral policies.

“the oecd you know the basically the Western countries has cut its carbon emissions in the past 20 years China's have been skyrocketing like if we are actually worried about carbon emissions we need to talk to China not to ourselves”

The money spent now on energy transition is better held in reserve to react to negative consequences if they arise; the machines powered by oil and gas can be geared toward mitigating any potential negative impact on humanity.

“we have argued I think persuasively we're going to run the experiment and the money that we're spending now to execute the quote unquote energy transition is best held in reserve to react to any negative consequences should and if they arise um because the very machines that oil and gas are powering today could be geared towards uh mitigating any potential negative impact on Humanity”

Cobalt in laptop batteries (and iPhones) comes from the Congo where child labor (artisanal mining) is used, yet the speaker typed the critique on a MacBook containing Congo cobalt—this is emblematic of the widespread hypocrisy in consuming ethical products.

“I I typed up that piece on a MacBook and I know that the battery in that MacBook has Cobalt in it from the Congo and the Congo uses child labor to they call it artisanal mining um which is the same thing as sort of um foxcon calling the iPhone factories in China iPhone City sounds so benign”

China increased emissions in 2023 more per day than New Zealand's total annual emissions; China burns more than half the world's coal. If concerned about carbon emissions, the West should talk to China, not to itself.

“China increased its emissions in 2023 more per day than all of New Zealand's emissions in the year the increase was more right like what New Zealand does what New Zealand does just doesn't matter like by the way China is the biggest Center like if we're worried about carbon emissions I mean China China burns more than half of the world's coal um the oecd you know the basically the Western countries has cut its carbon emissions in the past 20 years China's have been skyrocketing”

Just three to four years before the shale revolution, serious analysts claimed the US would never economically produce viable natural gas from the Marcellus Shale; now it is producing at roughly twice Qatar's rate from a single deposit, demonstrating the folly of betting against technological progress.

“when you talk about running out of oil what you're really doing is taking a massive short bet on human Ingenuity and that has always been uh a soccer trade we will develop the technology to find exploit U look three or four years before the shell Revolution um there were still self- declared serious analysts claiming that the US would never produce aill BTUs of economically viable gas from the marceles Shale for example and it's only twice as big as Qatar now um as one one deposit you know it's producing at a rate of roughly two qars um people look silly when they bet against human Ingenuity”

Rural China operates under very different standards than major cities (Beijing, Shanghai); Western business people rarely see this reality and thus systematically underestimate the aggressiveness and ruthlessness with which China pursues geopolitical dominance.

“if you ever go to rural China which very few Western business people get to see they get to see Beijing and they get to see Shanghai and the nice hotels and they think oh wow China's just like us it's not like us um and they're and they do dashly things in order to gain geopolitical dominance over the US”

Rising home insurance costs in Florida are not proof of climate change but of people choosing to live in high-risk areas (pretty areas that get hurricanes every 10 years) as they become wealthier.

“people like to talk about skyrocketing Insurance costs in Florida as proof of climate change that's just proof of people being you know moving to higher risk areas um because they're wealthier um we've seen an explosion in in home building across Florida and some of the look The the riskiest areas are the prettiest ones”

Trade-off is the word missing from the entire energy-climate debate; burning coal provides electricity and iPhones and modern comforts, and the question should be whether we are net better off without these things, not whether climate impacts are bad in isolation.

“the one word that's missing from the entire energy climate debate is trade-off what's the tradeoff like we we know if we burn this pile of coal today we're going to have electricity which is going to power a data server which is going to lead to an iPhone which is going to lead to all the other things that we've grown accustomed to you might find those things objectionable then I I could certainly understand why some of them are but like if we just don't burn that coal and we have none of those things are we net better off”

Natural hydrogen is a potential game changer on par with the shale revolution; if hydrogen can be drilled from the ground like oil, it would be a real GameChanger because it can be burned cleanly without producing carbon dioxide.

“natural hydrogen um which we wrote a piece called uh I Believe In Search of the next Shale so hydrogen today is a poor energy carrier and it was long assumed that you couldn't just drill a hole in the ground and find hydrogen um and bring it up to the surface as a fuel you had to make hydrogen from water or or fossil fuels like like natural gas and then when you burn that hydrogen to get the energy out you you only get half of what you put into it and so it's a poor energy carrier compared to say a battery um but if you could drill for hydrogen and it is a sort of a natural fuel that would be a real GameChanger”

There is a fundamental difference between a human-first mindset (which optimizes for human welfare while minimizing planetary impact) and a nature-first mindset (which treats humans as parasites on the planet and views nature as something to be preserved above human flourishing).

“I think the fundamental difference is are you starting with a human first mindset or are you starting with a nature first mindset and if you're starting with a human first mindset then you optimize for humans while minimizing the impact on the planet um if you start with a nature first mindset not much in the way of trade-offs are considered and in that mindset humans are viewed as a parasite on the planet um that we only destroy and nature is meant to be preserved”

Utility scale batteries are faded as a concept; the amount of battery metals needed would be prohibitively expensive and would quickly run out; giant batteries that only work sometimes are not a good solution to grid intermittency.

“we would fade that as a concept um for a variety of reasons uh the amount of battery you would need to be meaningful is just prohibitively expensive first of all and then you would quickly run out of the uh battery metals that you would need to make it happen I I there there are far better ways to operate a grid then to impose upon it parasitic intermittent Renewables and then say Your solution to the volatility that such um electricity sources bring to a grid inevitably uh is to install giant batteries that only work some of the time”

The simplest and easiest bet to fade is the belief that global total human energy consumption will ever go down for a meaningful amount of time; this is a sucker's bet.

“this is the single easiest bet to fade is the belief that U Global total human energy con sumption will ever go down for a meaningful amount of time there's no doubt that the business cycle and the capital cycle of the energy sector are out of phase and sometimes you get too much energy uh and sometimes you get not enough energy but the if you just plot go to the statistical review of world energy and plot Global energy consumption in exit jewels from 1965 to today that is a straight line up and to the right and to the extent that it's not straight it's slightly sinal”

China's energy use is skyrocketing with coal as the main driver; the energy crisis of 2022-23 only caused China to dig up even more coal and put it in inventory; China remains a major coal importer despite being a major producer.

“their energy use is skyrocketing coal is the main driver of it the energy crisis of 202 23 only um caused China to dig up even more coal and put it in inventory and they're still a major importer of coal by the way”

Canada has the third largest natural gas reserves in the world and recently completed an LNG export terminal (LNG Canada) in British Columbia; the facility will start sending first cargos to markets in 2025, marking Canada's entry into the global LNG market.

“I'd like to uh make the connection you mentioned China in just a few months time I haven't seen exactly when it seems to be a closely guarded secret the completion of l&g Canada to the point where it's actually sending its first cargo to markets one of the investors is a state owned Oil Company from China so there's a good probability that there will be Canadian natural gas molecules finding their way to China for the first time at least from Canada in 2025”

Global energy consumption has increased monotonically from 1965 to present (plotted in exajoules); minor fluctuations represent business cycles but always regress to mean upward trend.

“if you just plot go to the statistical review of world energy and plot Global energy consumption in exit jewels from 1965 to today that is a straight line up and to the right and to the extent that it's not straight it's slightly sinal and what that means is sometimes we have too much sometimes we have too little but we very quickly use it all”

What Germany does on climate is irrelevant; Germany doubled its carbon footprint by impaling itself at the altar of the Church of Carbon, and likewise, what New Zealand does just doesn't matter—China increased its emissions more in one day in 2023 than all of New Zealand's emissions in a year.

“what Germany does on climate is irrelevant um New Zealand for example I mean I think China increased its emissions in 2023 more per day than all of New Zealand's emissions in the year the increase was more right like what New Zealand does what New Zealand does just doesn't matter like by the way China is the biggest Center like if we're worried about carbon emissions I mean China China burns more than half of the world's coal”

Populist political movements in Europe, Trump's election, and government failures (Trudeau resignation, Macron coalition collapse, German government collapse, Austria unable to form government) are directly caused by attempts to restrict people's energy access.

“we're seeing that a populist Revolt happens when you try to restrict people's access to energy and by the way last point I I think immigration is mostly an energy issue”

Trump is suggesting acquisition of Canada (as the 51st state) and Greenland, along with renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America; he may be beginning to be taken literally rather than figuratively on these geopolitical statements.

“Trump was out saying that he intends to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America and um he seems to be very serious about not only Canada but also quote unquote acquiring um Greenland”

Two Senators per US state means agricultural states have outsized Senate representation; the ethanol mandate was a clever political solution that appeased agricultural interests while solving lead pollution.

“I think because there are two Senators uh in every US state hence there's a majority in the Senate who care about corn that was a very elegant way to sort of removed the the need for an anti-ock from us gasoline formulations while stoking demand for us Farmers”

Energy is life; standard of living is determined by the amount of energy a person or family can harness, because energy allows humans to impose order on their local environment and fight entropy.

“energy is life um your standard of living is quite literally defined by how much energy you and your family get to harness and the reason you need to harness energy is to impose order on your local environment um entropy is a universal force and the Endeavor is a constant unrelenting struggle against the forces of entropy disorder is spontaneous right angles do not appear spontaneously in nature they have to be built and maintained imposed um and so the more energy you have at your disposal the Richer you are”

One missing word from the entire energy-climate debate is 'tradeoff'; we must acknowledge tradeoffs: coal enables electricity, which powers servers and data, which enables iPhones—if we don't burn coal we lose those benefits.

“the one word that's missing from the entire energy climate debate is trade-off what's the tradeoff like we we know if we burn this pile of coal today we're going to have electricity which is going to power a data server which is going to lead to an iPhone which is going to lead to all the other things that we've grown accustomed to you might find those things objectionable then I I could certainly understand why some of them are but like if we just don't burn that coal and we have none of those things are we net better off”

Environmental issues should be partitioned into pollution and climate because they are separate problems; pollution is more easily handled with legal discipline and enforcement, while climate is a different issue altogether.

“I would partition the environmental dilemma into pollution and climate because I think they're two separate things they're too often comingled I think pollution is much more easily handled with a bit of legal discipline and enforcement um climate is a different issue altogether”

Anyone claiming that restricting Western fossil fuel production will reduce global consumption 'doesn't know anything about energy'—they are economically ignorant.

“when people start talking in that way what they're really saying is they don't know anything about energy”

Local restrictions on fossil fuel development merely relocate who gets to enjoy the privilege of consuming those fuels to other parts of the world; every molecule of fossil fuel produced will be burned by somebody somewhere, so Western carbon restrictions are economically and geopolitically futile.

“every molecule of fossil fuels produced will be burned by somebody some where and local restrictions against such activities merely relocate who gets to enjoy that privilege”

Energy explains all and solves all—energy availability is the most important variable that almost nobody looks at when analyzing geopolitical and economic events, yet explains much of the variance observed in news flows.

“in our view energy explains all and solves all... energy is the most important variable that almost nobody looks at and it explains much of the variance that we observe in the news flow”

The shale revolution created a period of extreme energy abundance in the US, which enabled Western societies—especially the upper and middle classes—to become separated from the hard work and labor exploitation required to maintain high living standards.

“the shale Revolution created this period of extreme excess abundance of energy especially in the US and um as I said earlier you know um having a hostile view of the energy sector or even no view of the energy sector can only happen during a period of of energy abundance”

Western attack on the fossil fuels industry and chemical sector is self-defeating because these are the roots of the modern economy. Oil workers, engineers, and technicians who maintain energy systems should be lauded as heroes, not vilified as planet destroyers.

“the abuse that is um brought to bear upon the fossil fuels industry and and the chemical sector is truly self-defeating it we we call it um you know uh chopping the tree down to save the branches um you know the the roots of our economy begin uh in the oil patch you know uh the tens of thousands of phds and engineers and lab technicians and oil field workers who do the dizzying array of work that make our modern lifestyle possible should be um should be lotted as Heroes and yet we wech them as Planet destroyers”

Corporate virtue signaling about sustainability (flashy climate summit booths) is a sign of hypocrisy, because procurement teams receive no such message and instead pressure suppliers to meet low prices by exploiting labor and environmental standards.

“the B Toc companies the business to Consumer companies that have the flashiest booths and um want to be seen as being virtuous and sustainable and all that jazz well the procurement teams never get the message and um I've been in meetings where I explain that our competitor in China's idea of the water treatment plan as a pipeline to the river and we can't possibly meet that you know request for proposal uh or the competitive bid because we actually have a water treatment plant that we have to capitalize and operate and staff and we respect the environment and our competitors don't and so sure they're 15% cheaper than we are or 20% cheaper than we are but surely you have this big booth at cop 17 or whatever it was at the time and the response was uh has been and and I have no doubt still is today meet the price or lose the business”

The techno-transition mindset (belief that new clean technologies will replace old polluting ones) is fundamentally wrong; wealthy tech entrepreneurs like Musk and Bezos send millions of gallons of fuel to orbit via rockets while claiming to be part of a clean energy transition.

“I've long been fascinated by the kind of techno transition mindset which is that there is this new economy coming along that will replace the bad old economy the polluting one with all those things we had to dig up or chop down or drill or whatever and that that uh would be represented by a lot of Silicon Valley you know we're we're past that but at the same time some of those who've gotten richest in Silicon Valley like Elon Musk or Je Bezos they're using millions of gallons of of uh fuel to send their Rockets into orbit”

China is the new arsenal of democracy—it manufactures everything for Western militaries. To think that the West can go to war with its suppliers is crazy.

“China as we say in that presentation is the arsenal of democracy they're the new arsenal of democracy they make everything for the Western militaries and so to think that we can go to war with with our suppliers is is is crazy”

Immigration is primarily an energy issue; when countries bring in people while restricting energy access, BTU per capita declines, creating social tensions as citizens share less energy with more people.

“I think immigration is mostly an energy issue like if you bring people into your country and you starve your country of energy at the same time your BTU per capita goes down a lot and so if you have less energy in more people you have to share it with of course there's going to be social tensions”

A rightward political lurch is happening in Europe (election of Trump, Trudeau resignation, Macron unable to form government, Starmer's polls tanking, Austria unable to form government, Germany's government collapsed, Romania's failed color revolution, Georgia's failed color revolution) driven by populist revolt against attempts to restrict people's energy access.

“we're seeing it today by the way um rightward uh Lurch in European Politics the election of Donald Trump Trudeau resigning um macron can't form a government starmer's poles are in the tank um Austria can't form a government um Germany's government just collapsed they had to cancel the election in Romania um a failed color revolution in Georgia I could go on and on but we're seeing that a populist Revolt happens when you try to restrict people's access to energy”

Energy explains all and solves all; it is the most important variable that almost nobody looks at and explains much of the variance in the news flow.

“in our view energy explains all and solves all”

The Marcellus Shale deposit is roughly twice as large as Qatar's entire natural gas reserves and is currently producing at a rate equivalent to two Qatars annually, demonstrating the scale of unconventional gas reserves.

“three or four years before the shell Revolution um there were still self- declared serious analysts claiming that the US would never produce aill BTUs of economically viable gas from the marceles Shale for example and it's only twice as big as Qatar now um as one one deposit you know it's producing at a rate of roughly two qars”

The US Geological Survey published a scientific paper in December characterizing the amount of natural hydrogen subsurface and its economic potential to be developed; a breakthrough in natural hydrogen is close.

“the US Geological Survey couple of their key scientists who have been studying this issue just put out an interesting scientific paper in December trying to characterize the amount of natural hydrogen that exists subsurface and its economic potential to be developed and I think we're very close to a breakthrough in that regard”

Global energy consumption has grown in a straight line upward from 1965 to today (with slight cyclical variation); this trend will continue indefinitely because all primary energy sources are additive, not substitutive—new energy sources do not replace old ones but are added on top of them.

“if you just plot go to the statistical review of world energy and plot Global energy consumption in exit jewels from 1965 to today that is a straight line up and to the right and to the extent that it's not straight it's slightly sinal”

Natural hydrogen is a potential game-changer; if hydrogen can be drilled from the ground (it forms naturally when water meets iron deposits), it would be comparable to the shale revolution.

“natural hydrogen um which we wrote a piece called uh I Believe In Search of the next Shale so hydrogen today is a poor energy carrier and it was long assumed that you couldn't just drill a hole in the ground and find hydrogen um and bring it up to the surface as a fuel you had to make hydrogen from water or or fossil fuels like like natural gas and then when you burn that hydrogen to get the energy out you you only get half of what you put into it and so it's a poor energy carrier compared to say a battery um but if you could drill for hydrogen and it is a sort of a natural fuel that would be a real GameChanger”

Media and politics engage in 'drawing of a tangent line to a sine wave'—taking short-term energy consumption fluctuations and extrapolating them indefinitely (e.g., 'it's going down, so it will go down forever'; 'it's going up, so we'll soon run out'), when the true pattern is cyclical reversion to a rising mean.

“so what we see in contemporary media and politics is what we call drawing of a tangent line to a sine wave oh look it's going down it's going to go down forever oh look it's going up we're going to run out of resources here soon um these things have a way of regressing to the mean”

Doomberg published a controversial piece arguing ethanol in gasoline formulations was a cover-up for the lead antiknock scandal; adding ethanol removed the need for lead while simultaneously increasing demand for US corn.

“we wrote about how we thought that ethanol in gasoline formulations was really a cover up for the lead uh antiock Scandal um and that sort of was connecting a few dots to many for some people that's a whole other topic we could probably discuss on another podcast but um if you have enough ethanol in your formulation you don't need to have antiock and the inclusion of lead as an antino for decades is one of the great environmental scandals of our time and I think because there are two Senators uh in every US state hence there's a majority in the Senate who care about corn that was a very elegant way to sort of removed the the need for an anti-ock from us gasoline formulations while stoking demand for us Farmers”

Normalizing and correcting labor exploitation and supply chain abuses would be extremely inflationary, which is why it is not being done; fixing these issues requires accepting higher prices.

“normalizing this and correcting this would be extremely inflationary which is why it's not being done”

China's environmental weakness and the West's energy strength explains much of the tensions currently being observed, and this also explains Trump's rhetoric about Greenland and Canada.

“their weakness um and their strength explains much of the the tensions that we're seeing today and all the stuff that Trump is talking about Greenland and Canada which I'm sure we'll get into and it's an even bigger story”

Doomberg uses the term 'Church of Carbon' partly for fun while straddling the line between provocative and polarizing, referencing that Western secularism has seen climate ideology replace positive aspects religion used to provide.

“Church of carbon is that a religion um you know we're kind of having fun with it that's sort of stradling the line between provocative and polarizing if I'm being fully honest we we'd like to have a little fun once in a while um there are aspects of the climate agenda that seem to be replacing the positive things that a religion brings to you um as the West has become more secular um and I I don't think that's a controversial view I think many people have stated it”

Labor abuse in H2A visa programs happens not only in distant countries but within the US; the H2A visa system is a euphemism for seasonal work under terrible conditions; the number of people brought into the country under such visas soared under Biden.

“we went into the piece about the whole h2a Visa scandals which kind of a lot of people know about but never gets talked about you know one of the reasons why food is so cheap in this country um these people are brought um in into the country on seasonal work visas which is a euphemism for really hard work under terrible conditions often times not all the time I I will say like like everything the exceptions don't always prove the rule but there's a number enough uh exceptions that of of brutal labor abuse look the cartels are involved in all of this there's Kickbacks there's bribery there's violence and um there's huge money to be made under Biden the number of people brought into the country under such visas has soared”

What contemporary media and politics call energy transitions are actually 'drawing a tangent line to a sine wave'—misinterpreting temporary fluctuations as permanent trends; when energy goes down it's proclaimed as the new reality, but it quickly regresses to the mean.

“what we see in contemporary media and politics is what we call drawing of a tangent line to a sine wave oh look it's going down it's going to go down forever oh look it's going up we're going to run out of resources here soon um these things have a way of regressing to the mean and the single easiest bet in the world is betting on the energy regression mean on that curve that represents the timate human endeavor um to bet against that I think is just a Fool's eror”

The Shale Revolution created a period of extreme energy abundance, especially in the US; this abundance allowed Western countries to adopt hostile views of the energy sector, which would be impossible during energy scarcity.

“the most important question any macroeconomic or geopolitical analyst for that matter should ask themselves when analyzing any situation is is this Market um longer short energy in other words is there abundance of energy or is there a shortage because those are two very different worlds worlds and um the shell Revolution created this period of extreme excess abundance of energy especially in the US and um as I said earlier you know um having a hostile view of the energy sector or even no view of the energy sector can only happen during a period of of energy abundance um as Europe found out during the energy crisis of a few years ago you know once you you run out of even just a bit of it all hell breaks loose”

A new report 'Late to the Party: The Business and Climate Risks of Canadian LNG' argues Canada shouldn't invest in LNG because it's too expensive, too late, and the Americans have already taken the opportunity.

“there's a new report from investors for Paris compliance it's called late to the party the business and climate risks of Canadian LNG and basically it's extensively citing all of the reasons they argue that Canada shouldn't host investment into LNG because you know it's too expensive or it's too late someone else the Americans have already taken the opportunity don't bother Canada”

Cheap labor is cheap because some of the components of labor cost are sacrificed: wages, benefits, working environment; there is no way to become 'cheap' without sacrificing on some of these parameters.

“what goes into the cost of Labour wages benefits working environment and so there's like no way you can become cheap without sacrificing on some of those parameters”

The difference between human-first and nature-first mindsets is fundamental: human-first optimizes for humans while minimizing planetary impact; nature-first views humans as parasites and prioritizes preservation, making fundamental tradeoffs invisible.

“the fundamental difference is are you starting with a human first mindset or are you starting with a nature first mindset and if you're starting with a human first mindset then you optimize for humans while minimizing the impact on the planet um if you start with a nature first mindset not much in the way of trade-offs are considered and in that mindset humans are viewed as a parasite on the planet um that we only destroy and nature is meant to be preserved”

In the battle between platitudes and physics, physics is undefeated; one should be mindful of physics or risk losing their way in policy.

“in the battle between platitudes and physics physics is undefeated um and so you should be mindful of physics uh otherwise you could lose your way”

Doomberg typed a piece on a MacBook knowing the battery contains cobalt from the Congo sourced through child labor called 'artisanal mining', illustrating personal complicity in labor exploitation through consumption.

“I I typed up that piece on a MacBook and I know that the battery in that MacBook has Cobalt in it from the Congo and the Congo uses child labor to they call it artisanal mining um which is the same thing as sort of um foxcon calling the iPhone factories in China iPhone City sounds so benign um you wouldn't want to work in iPhone City I can assure you”

Global energy consumption will double and triple from current levels, and carbon emissions will double and triple, because 5 billion people outside the G7 live at a fraction of G7 living standards and will demand higher standards of living as they develop.

“the G7 is what 700 million people the rest of the world is s billion people they live at a fraction of our standard of living and they all want a Higher One and who are we to tell them they can't um we will double and triple our Global energy consumption from here we will double and triple our carbon emissions from here”

Western countries' upper and middle classes have been separated from the hard work required to maintain their high standard of living, causing them to take energy for granted as if it appears spontaneously.

“members of the upper the middle and upper classes Western Society have been separated from the hard work required to um do the things necessary for us to have a high standard of living and so you take it for granted”

The oil and chemical industries are abused despite being foundational to modern civilization; workers in these sectors should be lauded as heroes rather than condemned as planet destroyers.

“the tens of thousands of phds and engineers and lab technicians and oil field workers who do the dizzying array of work that make our modern lifestyle possible should be um should be lotted as Heroes and yet we wetch them as Planet destroyers”

Global coal, natural gas, and oil all set records in 2023; coal is projected to set another record in 2024, natural gas might tie the record depending on price, and oil will set another record, demonstrating additive not transitional energy growth.

“if you plot um the global human energy consumption in exit Jewels By fuel source and layer them on top of each other you'll see like coal set a record in 2023 natural gas tied a record in 2023 and oil set a record in 2023 guess what coal is going to set another record in 2024 Natural Gas because of price while price wings might not but it be close and oil will set it on the record”

Trudeau's resignation on the same day Trump's election was certified is 'more than a metaphor'—it signals that the Canada-U.S. integration is inevitable and Canada's current political structure is incompatible with Trump's geopolitical vision.

“the resignation of of Justin trudah on the exact same day that Trump's election was certified Congress was um more than a metaphor”

The number of people brought into the US under H2A visas has soared under Biden administration, and while H1B visa abuse gets more Twitter attention, the H2A scandal is greater in magnitude and intensity.

“under Biden the number of people brought into the country under such visas has soared you know for all of the controversy on Twitter about H1B and I'm not sure if you followed that but um H1B sort of the the more higher end um Visa program which the IT industry has indeed abused but there's an even greater greater Scandal on on the sort of Labor end of of of the spectrum”

Food does not come from your iPhone and electricity does not come from the light switch; there is a perpetual network of people blind to consumers that work very hard to create these services, some exploited, others not.

“food does not come from your iPhone and electricity doesn't come from the light switch there's a whole per PID of people behind the scenes blind to you that are working very hard to make that happen some of them exploit it others not”

The single easiest bet in the world is betting on global energy consumption regression to the mean—the long-term trend is up and to the right, and betting against this is a fool's errand.

“the single easiest bet in the world is betting on the energy regression mean on that curve that represents the timate human endeavor um to bet against that I think is just a Fool's eror”

Technology for energy extraction will continue to improve; there are other technologies on the horizon that will make discussions about oil depletion irrelevant, so the human endeavor will not be denied.

“Frankly there's other Technologies on the horizon that would make all of this moved anyway so I the the the human endeavor shall not be denied”

Energy and the internet, AI, and phones would all go away without primary energy; this makes criticism of fossil fuels and the chemical sector 'truly self-defeating' because these industries are foundational to modern technology.

“the AI and the internet and your phone and all of that would just go away without primary energy this is why the abuse that is um brought to bear upon the fossil fuels industry and and the chemical sector is truly self-defeating”

There is a real difference between calling out short-term profit drivers of Wall Street that cause corporations to do 'evil dumb destructive things' and the larger climate question, which doomberg considers 'wasted breath' because people won't meaningfully change their energy use.

“I think polluter should be held to account I think industry does itself no favors in this regard by the way I the short-term profit drivers of Wall Street are in fact real and do cause corporations to do evil dumb um destructive things all the time and and we should hold them to account um but to the larger picture of of of the climate question we're just it just to me it's wasted breath we're not going to meaningfully change the way we live for very long”

Rising insurance costs in Florida are proof of people choosing to live in higher-risk areas because they are wealthier, not proof of climate change; an explosion in home building occurred in Florida's riskiest and prettiest areas.

“people like to talk about skyrocketing Insurance costs in Florida as proof of climate change that's just proof of people being you know moving to higher risk areas um because they're wealthier um we've seen an explosion in in home building across Florida and some of the look The the riskiest areas are the prettiest ones and so um I think the for example the insurance issue in Florida has nothing to do with climate”

Various cutout companies and middlemen exist that lie on corporate attestations about supply chain sanctity and the absence of taint; major brands like Apple and makeup companies rely on such attestations without verifying the truth.

“there's all manner of cutout companies and middlemen companies that uh aren't afraid to lie on various corporate attestations about supply chain sanctity and denying the existence of any taint in whatever it is they're selling Apple um or pick your favorite you know makeup brand or food company”

Trump was serious about renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, acquiring Greenland, and potentially integrating Canada; these are not random statements but reflect understanding of energy's critical role in geopolitics.

“moments before we hit record Trump was out saying that he intends to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America and um he seems to be very serious about not only Canada but also quote unquote acquiring um Greenland um Trump is an interesting character um it used to be that you you took Trump seriously but not literally um it might be that we should begin to start taking him more literally now that he is unburdened by the need to run for rection he is um an astute Observer of real politics and I think he understands the critical role that energy plays”

Canada is an energy superpower with the third-largest hydrocarbon base in the world, major oil and gas production, hydropower, nuclear technology, and enormous resources coast to coast; there's no reason Canadian citizens shouldn't be amongst the world's wealthiest, yet they are struggling deeply.

“Canada's energy superpower it's in possession of the third largest hydrocarbon base in the world I believe um it is a major producer of oil and gas and fertilizer and food um it has enormous Hydro power great nuclear technology predominantly deployed in Ontario today um amazing resources from coast to coast there's no reason why Canadian citizens shouldn't be amongst the wealthiest in the world it has roughly the same population of Saudi Arabia and has far greater resources than Saudi Arabia far better institutions far better history and yet um the average Canadian is struggling um deeply”

The argument against Canadian LNG investment is fallacious sunk cost reasoning; having built one terminal, the transition to two terminals is far cheaper than building the first, making expansion viable.

“they're wrong first of all that's all Sun cost fallacy you now have an El export terminal...the way to look at it is the time and cost and energy to go from one to two is much less than 0 to one”

Hostility toward fossil fuels is 'chopping the tree down to save the branches'—attacking the foundation of the economy to save peripheral environmental concerns.

“the abuse that is um brought to bear upon the fossil fuels industry and and the chemical sector is truly self-defeating it we we call it um you know uh chopping the tree down to save the branches”

The G7 represents 700 million people while the rest of the world is 7-8 billion people living at a fraction of the G7's standard of living; all want higher living standards, and the world will double and triple energy consumption and carbon emissions, making the climate experiment inevitable.

“for all the talk of an energy transition there's one thing that most people in the west fail to understand um the G7 is what 700 million people the rest of the world is s billion people they live at a fraction of our standard of living and they all want a Higher One and who are we to tell them they can't um we will double and triple our Global energy consumption from here we will double and triple our carbon emissions from here to the extent that you believe increasing carbon emissions is catastrophic to the planet um brace for impact because we're going to run the experiment”

To deal with any negative externalities from increased carbon emissions, we will use excess energy to mitigate consequences; betting otherwise is foolish.

“we'll use excess energy to deal with the consequences of any negative externalities um that's what's coming to bet otherwise is foolish”

The US has had people from industry warning Washington and federal agencies about China's dominance for over 20 years; these warnings were ignored in favor of Wall Street's profit maximization, making the current China problem self-inflicted.

“there was no shortage of people from industry parading into Washington and highlighting this to the EPA and to the various administrations um ultimately Wall Street and their obsession with quarterly profits and low cost at all costs um hollowed out American manufacturing”

Canada is a global energy superpower with the third-largest hydrocarbon base in the world, but Canadian citizens are struggling economically—this mismatch is a sign that something fundamental has failed in Canadian governance and resource management.

“Canada's energy superpower it's in possession of the third largest hydrocarbon base in the world I believe um it is a major producer of oil and gas and fertilizer and food um it has enormous Hydro power great nuclear technology predominantly deployed in Ontario today um amazing resources from coast to coast there's no reason why Canadian citizens shouldn't be amongst the wealthiest in the world it has roughly the same population of Saudi Arabia and has far greater resources than Saudi Arabia far better institutions far better history and yet um the average Canadian is struggling um deeply”

A market can be classified as either long or short energy—abundance or shortage. This question of whether energy is abundant or scarce is the single most important question an analyst should ask when evaluating any situation.

“the most important question any macroeconomic or geopolitical analyst for that matter should ask themselves when analyzing any situation is is this Market um longer short energy in other words is there abundance of energy or is there a shortage because those are two very different worlds worlds”

Doomberg has received blowback for claiming ethanol in gasoline was a cover-up for removing the lead anti-knock scandal; they argue ethanol eliminated the need for lead while also supporting corn farmers.

“one time we wrote about how we thought that ethanol in gasoline formulations was really a cover up for the lead uh antiock Scandal um and that sort of was connecting a few dots to many for some people that's a whole other topic we could probably discuss on another podcast but um if you have enough ethanol in your formulation you don't need to have antiock and the inclusion of lead as an antino for decades is one of the great environmental scandals of our time”

Companies with flashier climate summit booths tend to be more hypocritical in their corporate behavior; the flashiness is a sign of overcompensation covering for virtue signaling without matching internal practices.

“you've said that as a general rule the flashier a company's Booth is at a climate Summit the more hypocritical the corporate Behaviour because such virtue strutting is a sign of overcompensation”

Trump's interest in Canada goes beyond oil; it includes stopping fentanyl trafficking, controlling immigration, removing tariffs, and other issues. Oil is 'but two inputs' into a broader Trump agenda for North American integration.

“it's far more than about just oil for Trump I think um removing tariffs and trade barriers between the countries um stopping the fentanyl trade uh pouring over the Border um controlling Canada's border and the US's Border in a sort of coequal way so that we can get a handle on immigration oil is certainly important gas is certainly important but I think in Trump's mind those are but two inputs into a broader desire to have uh a sort of a a larger conversation”

The popularity of Trump can be explained by the predictable consequences of thirty years of Wall Street hollowing out American manufacturing; doomberg saw this personally and lived through the industry dynamics.

“I think explains the popularity of trump I mean this was all very predictable in the past 20 years I I lived it personally I saw how they operate”

Western business people visiting China typically only see Beijing and Shanghai and the nice hotels and believe China is similar to the West, but those who visit rural China see that China operates dashly and does extreme things to gain geopolitical dominance over the US.

“if you ever go to rural China which very few Western business people get to see they get to see Beijing and they get to see Shanghai and the nice hotels and they think oh wow China's just like us it's not like us um and they're and they do dashly things in order to gain geopolitical dominance over the US”

During the early solar industry boom, Chinese manufacturers undercut Western competitors by using thermal coal and slave labor; Western companies' procurement teams ignored corporate virtue signaling, telling manufacturers to meet the price or lose the business, even when Chinese competitors lacked environmental controls.

“I was in and around the solar industry when China used you know thermal coal and slave labor to dump uh solar panels onto the market put everybody in the west out of business and you know the the B Toc companies the business to Consumer companies that have the flashiest booths and um want to be seen as being virtuous and sustainable and all that jazz well the procurement teams never get the message and um I've been in meetings where I explain that our competitor in China's idea of the water treatment plan as a pipeline to the river and we can't possibly meet that you know request for proposal uh or the competitive bid because we actually have a water treatment plant that we have to capitalize and operate and staff and we respect the environment and our competitors don't and so sure they're 15% cheaper than we are or 20% cheaper than we are but surely you have this big booth at cop 17 or whatever it was at the time and the response was uh has been and and I have no doubt still is today meet the price or lose the business”

Doomberg does not think the US should be bombing energy infrastructure around the world even if it belongs to groups like ISIS; the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines was 'one of the great scandals of our time' and sets a dangerous precedent that makes civilian energy infrastructure vulnerable.

“I don't think that the US should be wanting bombing energy infrastructure around the world even if it happens to currently be in the possession of quote unquote Isis whatever that is um I think the destruction of the northstream pipelines was one of the great scandals of our time uh and I think it sets an extremely dangerous precedent um something that we are going to be talking about in our Doom zoom webinars and writing about um during 2025 because it's not like the US doesn't have energy choke points either and if we're going to make the want and destruction of what amounts to civilian infrastructure um and Industrial infrastructure normalized that's not a world that any of us wants to live in”

Scotland's North Sea oil patch has been described as having '20 years of oil left' for about 20 years; it has not run out, demonstrating that peak oil predictions are consistently wrong.

“about 20 odd years ago I went to Scotland to Aberdine the Houston of Scotland as it were and that's where the North Sea oil patch is is serviced and met an engineer who spoke to us there and he said Scotland North the North Sea he said has always had 20 years worth of oil left and I think it's still true maybe less but it it just hasn't run out”

Justin Trudeau's resignation on the exact same day Congress certified Trump's election was 'more than a metaphor'—it symbolizes Canada's need for new political directions aligned with energy development.

“the resignation of of Justin trudah on the exact same day that Trump's election was certified Congress was um more than a metaphor”

A report 'Late to the Party: The Business and Climate Risks of Canadian LNG' by Investors for Paris Compliance argues that Canada shouldn't invest in LNG because it's too expensive, it's too late, and the U.S. has already taken the opportunity.

“there's a new report from investors for Paris compliance it's called late to the party the business and climate risks of Canadian LNG and basically it's extensively citing all of the reasons they argue that Canada shouldn't host investment into LNG because you know it's too expensive or it's too late someone else the Americans have already taken the opportunity don't bother Canada”