What this covers
Doomberg stops by and drops some truth bombs around the cage.
We cover his article for tomorrow and Friday and tee up his book. You can read all of Doomberg's articles on https://newsletter.doomberg.com/
1. Sanctions Against Russia & Their Ineffectiveness The hosts discuss Doomberg's article "Treatment Resistant," which argues that sanctions against strong countries like Russia don't work as intended. They compare it to treating cancer—if you don't cure it, it comes back stronger. The EU's strategy of limiting Russian LNG exports while simultaneously importing Russian LNG is highlighted as contradictory and ineffective.
2. EU Censorship & Free Speech Concerns A significant portion focuses on European overreach in censorship, including a new European Court of Justice ruling that makes it illegal to even quote or critique Russian media. This threatens independent journalists and Substack creators, raising concerns about freedom of speech and the weaponization of sanctions enforcement.
3. Ukraine War & Geopolitical Strategy The conversation covers the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including:
Russian refinery damage from drone strikes and its actual impact The importance of the land corridor to Crimea for Russia Criticism of endless U.S. military involvement in foreign conflicts The need for diplomatic talks between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky 4. Energy Markets & Oil Pricing Discussion of current oil prices (~$68/barrel), refining capacity constraints, and the crack spread differences between Texas ($5) and California ($15). They debate whether oil will drop to $50 and discuss the role of NGLs (natural gas liquids) as an alternative hydrocarbon source.
5. Peak Not Oil & NGL Production Doomberg presents the thesis that we're not running out of oil—instead, we're transitioning to abundant NGLs (propane, butane, ethane). U.S. NGL production is expected to cross 8 million barrels per day, offering cleaner-burning alternatives.
6. NATO & U.S. Foreign Policy Critical examination of:
Article 5 obligations (e.g., defending Estonia) The Jones Act and its impact on energy prices Why the U.S. should focus on the Western Hemisphere rather than global conflicts The dangers of nuclear proliferation resulting from military interventions 7. California's Energy Crisis Discussion of California's regulatory overreach, refinery closures, and how the temporary suspension of the Jones Act has helped provide cheaper energy to the state.
8. Upcoming Doomberg Stories "Sources and Methods" (Friday) - Examining media bias and how to verify information in an age of AI and deepfakes "Blue Chips" (Tomorrow) - A gas-to-data project in the Permian involving Chevron, Microsoft, and GE 9. Media Literacy & Propaganda The hosts emphasize the importance of critical thinking, cross-referencing multiple sources (including alternative media), and understanding that major outlets like the Financial Times have biases and propaganda elements mixed with legitimate reporting.
This episode is essentially a deep dive into energy geopolitics, the failures of Western sanctions policy, and the importance of independent analysis in an increasingly censored information landscape.
Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/
A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.
Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energy
And we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/
Source description (no synthesized summary yet).
Sanctions against strong countries like Russia, China, and Iran do not work as intended and often backfire; the US should focus energy policy and military commitments on the Western Hemisphere rather than global interventions, while energy abundance from hydrocarbons including NGLs ensures no near-term scarcity despite crude oil price fluctuations.
- Russia has adapted to sanctions by building LNG capacity and ice-breaker tankers while EU imports Russian gas, proving sanctions fail to constrain energy supplies
- US military commitments to NATO countries like Estonia create tripwire obligations disproportionate to American interests when those countries lack military capacity to defend themselves
- NGL production capacity is expanding dramatically to 8 million barrels per day, offsetting crude oil concerns and providing abundant hydrocarbon alternatives for the global economy
This asset isn't compiled yet
You're seeing its claims, ranked. Compile it to build the argument threads, weight them, and check each claim against your library — the full view.
Russia is building nuclear-powered icebreaker tankers for LNG transport and has a fleet of six of them, making it the only country in the world with this capability, which contradicts the narrative that Russia is a technological backwater.
“Russia is building out LG. They do have this you know northwest passage with the nuclearpowered ice breakers... They have a whole fleet of them... They have six of them... And you were told that Russia is a technology backwater in a in a you know, gas station masquerading as a country.”
In an age of AI, deepfakes, and algorithm-driven propaganda, it is becoming increasingly challenging to be a free-thinking person, requiring conscious application of thinking principles and methodologies to evaluate sources.
“it's becoming ever more challenging to be a freethinking person. [clears throat] Um, in an age of AI, deep fake and um you know algorithmdriven propaganda”
Power of Siberia 2 pipeline routing through Mongolia as the direct route is still uncertain, and Chinese negotiating leverage is based on ability to drive hard bargains on pricing, but the real issue is that any pipeline through third countries gives those countries veto power over gas flow, as evidenced by Ukraine's influence over Russian gas to Germany.
“the issue is is more about the the direct route through Mongolia as opposed to whether it will get get built or whether the pricing is still up in the air. The Chinese are known to drive a hard bargain, but don't forget that the pathway of the power of Siberia 2 necessitates passage through a third country. And you know, as we've seen with the war in Ukraine, just because gas originates in Russia and and ends up in Germany doesn't mean that all the countries in between don't have a say in the flow of those molecules.”
US has Article 5 mutual defense obligation under NATO for Estonia, a country of couple million people half of whom are Russian, and most Americans wouldn't know this obligation exists, let alone be willing to die for Estonia.
“Because Turkey is a NATO member, the US technically has an artifi article [laughter] 5 mutual defense guarantee. Um, which of course would never be able. >> But isn't article five more like uh the Pirates of the Caribbean when J Captain Jack Sparrow goes, it's more like a guideline...We wrote a piece um many moons ago now called Tripwire. My my memory for these pieces is well...Um Estonia's a couple of million people. Half of them are Russian by [laughter] the way. Um and um technically, you know, all the bubbas that were barbecuing over the weekend have an article 5 obligation to defend Estonia from Russia.”
Sanctions against strong countries never work—they didn't work against Iran, they're not working against Russia, and they won't work against China—because sanctioned countries adapt their supply chains and develop workarounds while the sanctions' target outcomes fail to materialize.
“our view is that sanctions against strong countries never work. Um, they won't work against China. They clearly didn't work against Iran, much to I think everybody who's being honest about it, at least much to their surprise. They're certainly not going to work against Russia.”
The founding fathers' principle 'don't go abroad in search of monsters to destroy' has been abandoned, as demonstrated by NATO expansion and US interventions contrary to original constitutional intent.
“I find these things fascinating. Like, how is this anywhere even remotely close to what the founding fathers envisioned? You know, don't go abroad in search of monsters to destroy. I mean, here we go. Here we are.”
Kerosene consumption in India is being replaced with LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), a clean-burning hydrocarbon of high energy density, as part of global shift from crude to lighter hydrocarbons.
“kerosene consumption in India to be replaced with LPG liqufied um petroleum gas.”
Many drones sent toward a Russian refinery near Moscow were laden with kerosene and designed to burn up when shot down, producing massive plumes of black smoke that appeared apocalyptic in pictures—meaning Financial Times coverage showing severe damage was misleading.
“many of these drones that were sent towards this refinery were laden with kerosene and designed to burn up when shot down and produced these massive plumes of black smoke that you see in these pictures. And so you won't find that in the Financial Times. You'll find it in, you know, the the various pro-Russian alternative media space”
Oil at $50 per barrel is coming for crude because there is a temporary shortage of refining capacity (currently running at 97% utilization) but abundant crude floating around, which will resolve as new refining capacity is built.
“50 is coming for crude. And um right now there's a tightness in the refining side... when you're running at you know um 97% utilization in your refinary network and the front month spread is dimminimous that tells you there's a huge amount of crude floating around.”
The US should not send military forces to defend Paris or other NATO members outside North America from Iranian missiles because those countries are sovereign with their own militaries and budgets; extending military guarantees indefinitely locks the US into forever wars it cannot win.
“Why do I care about Paris? Again, I I once you go down this roads to wherever you draw the line, if it isn't at your country's borders, you're getting sucked into the forever war playbook. I don't care if Paris gets hit by a missile from Iran. I'm sorry. I mean, I I let Paris figure that out. Don't they have a a military? Don't they have a budget?”
Buying US-flagged tankers today and restarting US shipyards to build tankers is an important strategic move, though it will take decades, because energy dominance is displayed through exports and energy security is threatened if sanctions prevent US-flagged shipping.
“energy security starts at home but energy dominance is displayed through your exports somebody can turn around the US as you point out weaponized our sanctions and if somebody sanctions us we don't have any tankers.”
The Strait of Hormuz has been used by Ottoman Empire and Persian Empire for millennia, and the US should not care about controlling transit fees through straits we cannot pronounce or locate, when sufficient energy abundance exists in Western Hemisphere.
“So, the Ottoman Empire goes back how far? Um, the Persian Empire goes back how many thousands of years? What do I care about whether they charge a fee to go through some sea I can't name on a map that I can't find?”
The standard neoconservative playbook is to keep doubling and tripling down on military interventions until trillions have been wasted and lives lost, a pattern of escalation Doomberg hopes Trump will break.
“Um, the sort of standard neocon playbook is to just keep doubling and tripling down until many more trillions have been wasted and lives lost. Um, we'll see. I hope you're wrong that post midterms that this thing heats back up again.”
Pakistan and India developed nuclear weapons through specific historical pathways that demonstrate how nuclear proliferation spreads as nations learn nuclear weapons provide security guarantee against foreign intervention.
“Um, and you know, we're going to see a wave of nuclear proliferation because this war in Iran taught every second rate power in the world that the only insur, you know, an unannounced decapitation strike against their leaders is a nuclear weapon. So, while they'll all, you know, talk happiness and and good vibes, secretly they're going to be developing their own nukes or buying them from Pakistan, you know, go read up on the history of how Pakistan got the bomb. >> Oh, yeah. >> Go read up on the history of how India got the bomb.”
When the US fails to back down from military confrontations with nuclear powers like Iran, it teaches other second-rate powers they must develop nuclear weapons to deter future US decapitation strikes, accelerating nuclear proliferation globally.
“It teaches them they better get busy getting the bomb. Um, and you know, we're going to see a wave of nuclear proliferation because this war in Iran taught every second rate power in the world that the only insur, you know, an unannounced decapitation strike against their leaders is a nuclear weapon.”
The Jones Act, which requires US-flagged vessels for domestic shipping, is the worst law in the books and has been crippling California energy supplies by preventing cheaper foreign-flagged tankers from delivering gasoline and diesel, and should be completely repealed.
“I read an issue article in the Wall Street Journal about the Jones Act and um how this has bailed out California and it's like the worst law in the books and yet um I don't think that his temporary suspension is going to be reapp that this is a law that just needs to be repealed.”
Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Canada, Mexico, Greenland, and the Arctic represent the geographic focus where US has plausible direct interests and shouldn't be distracted by Middle East geopolitics.
“I mean look there's in the words of a famous Canadian mayor you know plenty to eat at home. Let's focus on the Western Hemisphere. I you know Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Canada, Mexico, Greenland, the Arctic. Do we not have enough to do here? At least I could plausibly understand that, hey, there's gangs from Venezuela that are messing around with the southern border and infiltrating it to Texas and Arizona and New Mexico and California, and boy, we have an interest in making sure that stops.”
The US should not go back to war with Iran because it would be a catastrophic mistake compounding an initial error, given that losing wars is hard and history of failed military interventions.
“the US is not going to occupy Car Island. If the US goes back to war with Iran, it'll be a catastrophic mistake. Compounding an initial error. And um, and you know, when one of the reasons you don't get into wars is that you might lose them and losing wars is hard.”
There are currently 230 VLCCs (very large crude carriers) on order, the highest number in history, indicating shipping companies believe there is strong future demand for large tanker capacity.
“Right now, there are 230 VLCC's on order. The largest number of VLCC's on order in history tells me that there are a lot of shipping companies out there that believe there's a lot of demand for very large tankers.”
France is a nuclear superpower and sovereign country with military budget; if Iran fires missiles at Paris, Macron (whose popularity is in the teens) might fire nuclear weapons, making Iran deterred without US involvement.
“Look, Paris is a nuclear superpower. If Iran is dumb enough to fire a missile into Paris, maybe Macron, whose popularity is in the teens, might fire off a nuclear bomb on Tyran. And maybe Iran might think twice about what do we have to defend Paris for? Is is France not a sovereign country? Do they not have a military budget? Are they not a G7 country?”
The EU and UK don't want Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin talking to each other, indicating they prefer continued conflict over negotiated settlement.
“I'm also >> I'm okay with President Z and President Trump and President Putin talking. Guess who's not happy with that arrangement? The EU and the UK. They don't want those >> three talking.”
The main Russian political critique of Putin visible in Russian right-wing media is that he's too weak and too accommodating to the West, not that he's too aggressive, with claims he should be sending Kinzhal missiles into Kiev and London rather than talking to Trump.
“the main critique of Putin that I see relentlessly across all of Russia is that he's too weak and too accommodating to the West. Why is he on the phone with Trump? He should be sending arnic missiles into Kiev instead of talking to Trump. He should be sending arnic missiles into London. You see this in in the Russian right-wing uh media, >> right?”
Germany's de-industrialization from net zero policies raises question of whether Germany could even re-industrialize if the US left NATO.
“when you look at Germany's de-industrialization from net zero, I just wrote a piece uh about whether or not uh they could even reindustrial re-industrialize if the United States left NATO. Can the EU rearm themselves? And the answer is I don't think so.”
Turkey is nuclear-armed and a NATO member but also feeds intelligence to Iranians, wanting to be global interconnect to make money off energy flows, representing unpredictable geopolitical player.
“Turkey's nuclear armed. They're a NATO member, but they've also been feeding intel to the Iranians. So, they're all over the map and they want to be the global interconnect and make money off of all the energy.”
NATO member countries have failed to spend adequately on their own defense, creating asymmetric burden-sharing where the US shoulders disproportionate military costs and risks.
“Trump has a pretty interesting lament, which I think is a correct one, which is the NATO countries have have not spent enough on their own defense.”
The US just tangled with Iran and the outcome 'was not a glorious one' regardless of what Fox News says, implying Iran successfully defended against or deterred US military action.
“I I I mean I I hate to break it to you, but um [laughter] the US just tangled with Iran and regardless of whatever Fox News is saying, the outcome was not a glorious one.”
Doomberg's upcoming book (under contract) will focus on principles and tools for critical thinking that can be replicated by any free-thinking person, rather than presenting a set of beliefs or opinions.
“It's not a set of beliefs or opinions. It's a set of principles and tools that can be replicated by the freethinking person. Um because in an age of AI, deep fake and um you know algorithmdriven propaganda, it's becoming ever more challenging to be a freethinking person.”
The Financial Times is a propaganda outlet of British intelligence, though it does employ some good reporters; readers must learn to sift through propaganda to extract valuable reporting.
“I think the Financial Times, you know, gets a lot of stuff wrong. It's a propaganda outlet of British intelligence. I still read it. I don't get angry at it... The cover for the propaganda is they mostly do very good reporting. So, you know, you just got to sift through the nonsense.”
New trading blocks forming will include Russia, US, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Japan, and Canada and Mexico need to be addressed separately, but the EU and UK are not on the radar for future geopolitical alignment.
“I've said for a long time that we've got new trading blocks forming and those new trading blocks are going to be Russia, the US, China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Japan, and I I I don't see the EU and the UK on our radar. Canada and Mexico need to happen. That's a whole another can of worms.”
Many fake Doomberg accounts exist on social media (WhatsApp, Discord, Facebook) impersonating the real Doomberg brand; these fakes offer investment tips, request banking information, and claim to be official channels, which they are not.
“we are not on WhatsApp. We are not on Discord. You won't find us on Facebook. Um if we message you with hot investing tips, it's not us. Uh if we ask you for your banking information or your mother's maiden name, it's not us. Might look like us, might sound like us, it's not us.”
A new ruling from the European Court of Justice makes it illegal to copy and paste a paragraph from a Russia Today article, even if just to critique it in your own essay, because it is deemed spreading sanctioned propaganda, which threatens independent journalists and Substack creators with deplatforming.
“there's a new ruling that just came out of the European um Court of Justice that um makes it illegal to copy and paste a paragraph out of a Russia Today article, even if just to critique it in your own essay. Um because you're you're spreading um sanctioned propaganda.”
California has only seven refineries remaining, six of which are slated to close, and cannot import additional fuel through ports because import pipelines are already maxed out at current levels—meaning California faces a structural energy crisis that cannot be solved by temporary Jones Act suspension.
“There are seven refineries left. They're slated to close six of those seven. They can't import anymore because their pipelines of importing at the ports are maxed out even at current levels.”
China has monetized the hydrocarbon menu (crude oil, NGLs, natural gas) at a scale and pace only China can achieve, building infrastructure to absorb diverse hydrocarbon feedstocks.
“China has funibleized the hydrocarbon uh menu um at a scale and at a pace that only China can do.”
Russia routinely imports gasoline during heavy driving season because Russian refineries were designed during Soviet times and dispersed across the old Soviet Union, not optimized for the Russian Federation as an independent state.
“Russia routinely imports gasoline during the heavy driving season because of the way in which Russia's refineries were constructed and the dispersion of refineries across the old Soviet Union wasn't necessarily optimized for the Russian Federation as an independent country because they didn't envision it would someday be an independent country.”
Doomberg doesn't care about controlling the Donbass corridor of Russian-speaking people and can't pronounce Donbass with confidence, so wouldn't advocate going to war over it; the US shouldn't send military resources to Ukraine without clear direct threat to America itself.
“So, this is gonna like maybe anger a few people. I could care less who controls that corridor of Russian speaking people. Um, my general rule is if I can't pronounce it with confidence, I probably be shouldn't be advocating that we go to war over it. >> Absolutely. I >> I could care less who controls the Russian Russian speaking part of the Dombas.”
Iran will not be successfully controlled until Karshi Island is controlled and placed under Qatar or Venezuela-style control mechanisms, because the US has been funding Houthi groups with billions annually, and this problem won't be addressed until after midterms.
“I've said for a long time that we will not have the Ayatollas and the moolas and the hoolas all taken care of in Iraq in Iran until Car Island is controlled and and made sure that it is under the cutter or the um uh Venezuela style controls because these knuckleheads have been giving $2 billion ion dollars a year to Houthies and the blowfish and it is going to be a real problem and it's not going to happen until after the midterms.”
On the gradient between natural gas (most abundant) and crude oil (least abundant), NGLs occupy the middle ground as far more prevalent than crude but less abundant than gas, and as economy accommodates more NGL use, supply will expand in self-reinforcing cycle.
“So on the gradient between oil and gas is NGL. So there's far more gas underground than oil. You would agree, right? Like there's a huge amount of natural gas underground. On the other side of that is oil. Well, in between is the NGL's. And the NGL's are far more prevalent than crude oil. Um, more abundant than crude, less prevalent than gas. In a self-reinforcing loop, the more accommodations are made for NGL's in our modern economy, the more supply will appear, which itself will cement more demand for them in the future.”
Russia has degraded approximately 40-60% of its refining capacity through drone strikes and Ukrainian attacks, prompting Putin to retaliate by destroying over 100 gas stations in Ukraine, escalating the conflict.
“Russia having a ballpark of I believe it was around 40% 60% of their refining capacity has been degradated and they've now got some shortages. President Putin retaliated in Ukraine just recently by taking out a lot of gas stations over a hundred gas stations and it's heating up in Ukraine right now.”
During the Putin-Zelensky meeting (referenced as 'last month' in July 2024 timeframe), numerous documents were signed but the Siberia 2 pipeline was notably NOT signed, representing a wait-and-see strategic move by China.
“I looked at when there were a a really high number of pre of uh documents signed when President Z met with President Putin, was it last month? And they did not sign the Siberia 2 pipeline, which is a huge wait andsee move for China.”
There is no real control of Iraq money currently; Iraq money from President Bush era through US Treasury and Federal Reserve was supposed to be controlled but the Fed, as a privately held organization, has siphoned off trillions of dollars, and the Fed needs to cease operations.
“I didn't have on my bingo card that we still control the Iraq money uh from President Bush through the US Treasury and the Fed and I believe that I don't have this but that Fed, the Fed, we don't control the money. It's a privately held organization and they siphle off trillions of dollars. I think the Fed needs to go away. personal opinion, but um when you look at now Venezuela style control”
In the last two months using Chinese and foreign ships (rather than US-flagged vessels), more US energy was sold to Puerto Rico than in the previous 20 years combined, proving the Jones Act's restrictions prevent competitive energy pricing and sales.
“we've sold more in the last two months to Puerto Rico than the previous 20 years of US energy, but we used uh Chinese ships and other ships”
Britain has had six prime ministers in four weeks, indicating institutional instability and loss of legitimacy to lecture other countries about governance.
“when you've had six prime ministers in four weeks or whatever it's been in Britain um you know you don't get to lecture the rest of the world I suppose.”
EU gas storage is currently at 50% full, down from above 60% full on this day last year, showing Europe is falling behind in gas inventory despite sanctions on Russian energy.
“I pulled up the European gas percent full chart on my handy Bloomberg terminal. Um, it is currently sitting at 50% full. Um, on this day last year, it was above 60% full. So, a little bit behind.”
Liz Truss was very knowledgeable about energy policy and was 'three steps ahead of everybody else'; the problem was she was actually trying to implement good policy, which got her removed from office.
“I did interview Liz Truss and she was actually very knowledgeable and she was three steps ahead of everybody else in energy. The problem is she actually was trying.”
The European Union is simultaneously trying to stunt Russia's LNG export growth while literally importing every cargo of Yamal LNG that Russia produces, which is a logical contradiction—they are cutting the trunk of the tree from a branch they're standing on.
“European Union is fixated with stunting Russia's LG export growth while at the same time literally importing every cargo from Yamal that Russia is producing because they are behind. And you know the the the great fallacy of these two facts standing in direct opposition to each other is is seems lost on European leaders. Like you're literally cutting off the trunk of the tree from a branch that you're standing on.”
The upcoming 'Blue Chips' article (publishing Friday 5am Eastern) discusses a Chevron-Microsoft-GE Vernova natural gas to data project in the Permian, representing assembly of American titans of industry; if this project can't get done, one questions whether any major energy-data infrastructure projects can succeed.
“this um project led by Chevron and uh Microsoft is one of their partners and GE Verovas and this is so the title of the piece is blue chips. you know, this is the assembly of all of the American titans of industry. And if this can't get done, boy, one wonders um whether any can get done.”
Turkey is positioning itself as a 'true fair' (trustee/middleman) for molecules including hydrocarbons, and Doomberg wrote a piece called 'Gasgobbler' about Erdogan describing Turkey's role in energy transit.
“apparently, you can't call them Turkey anymore. Um, we learned that when we wrote a piece on Erdogan called Gasgobbler because Turkey, as you correctly mentioned, is positioning itself as a as a truefair of of molecules, including the hydrocarbons, those evil dirty hydrocarbons.”
Power of Siberia 2 doesn't matter as much to China and Russia as it might have a few years ago because China has been gorging on coal, has built out LNG capacity that it doesn't really need, and gets gas from many places including Turkmenistan, LNG imports, and domestic shale potential.
“the Paras Siberia 2, um, doesn't matter as much to both China and Russia as it might have a few years ago. Um, because, um, first of all, China has just been gorging on coal. Um and um I note with some curiosity that the latest edition of the statistical review of world energy has Chinese coal consumption at exactly the same number as the year prior which u strikes us as a little bit suspect to say the least. But um Russia is building out LG. They do have this you know northwest passage with the nuclearpowered ice breakers...China has built out the capacity to absorb more LG, but it doesn't really need it. And um, and so we'll see if the pipeline gets built or not. Look, China gets its gas from a lot of places. Um, good timing on this question because our July dooms is is another look at China through the lens of energy.”
Estonia has about five ships in its navy and was proposing it would block Russian cargo from St. Petersburg, representing 'crazy talk' given the disparity in power.
“Estonia um was was I think it has like five ships in its navy and it was proposing that it would um block Russian cargo from St. Petersburg. It it's um it's crazy talk, [29:21] right?”
Trump's temporary suspension of Jones Act had exactly predicted effects: prices got cheaper on left coasts of US (progressive strongholds) who got to enjoy cheap abundant energy temporarily, demonstrating spread of American energy bounty across citizens is noble pursuit.
“Trump suspended it because of the war correctly. So we predicted he would um the effects are exactly as we would have predicted um them to be which is suddenly prices got cheaper in the the left coasts of the US. The um the the hot beds of progressive environmentalism. they also got to enjoy cheap abundant energy for a temporary period of time. So, you know, as much as you might want to teach such people a political lesson, I I I I think, you know, spreading the bounty of American energy across all of the citizens of this land is is a noble thing and should be pursued.”
Crude oil at $70 per barrel is the most expensive hydrocarbon on the energy board; at that price crude equals $14 per unit of energy relative to natural gas at $3/unit and NGLs at $7-10/unit, revealing crude is overpriced relative to alternatives.
“oil is the most expensive hydro covered on the board at $70 a barrel. Um at $70 a barrel, that's $14 gas. Well, gas is three bucks and change in the US. That NGL's are what you know um $7 $10 a million BTU”
Nvidia has 90% profit margins on chips and is never accused of price gouging despite semiconductors being as critical to modern economy as oil, but Exxon faces price gouging accusations for 10-20% refinery margins, showing selective political bias.
“Does does anybody ever talk about Nvidia's margins and price gouging of chips? You know, 90% margin, you know, most expensive. And by the way, critical to the military and modern society just as I would argue semiconductor chips have become just as important as oil to the operation of a modern economy. And nobody ever talks about price gouging at Nvidia, but Exxon's guilty of price gouging.”
Venezuela style control mechanism through Bank of Qatar has resulted in Venezuelan people getting more money for their oil than when China was stealing their oil at $20-30/barrel and reselling Chinese equipment at inflated rates, effectively getting oil for $5/barrel equivalent.
“when you look at now Venezuela style control, the Venezuela style control mechanism is going through the bank of Qatar, uh the Venezuelan people are actually getting more money for their oil than when China was stealing their money because that believe I I saw numbers they were getting incredibly cheap oil from Venezuela at 20 to $30 and then they would turn around and use that money to buy Chinese equipment at inflated rates. So, they were really getting it for $5 a barrel, whatever the number was.”
The Chevron-Microsoft natural gas to data project in the Permian involves natural gas going into one side of a facility and data coming out the other side, with power generation happening off-grid behind the meter.
“you know, natural gas goes in one side of the building and data comes out the other and that's coming offrid behind the meter um in Texas in the Perian.”
Doomberg tends to take rhetorical flare when critiquing renewables, which means readers who are pro-solar will probably not enjoy Doomberg content, though they can selectively read other Doomberg topics like nuclear or geopolitics.
“we get stuff wrong and we have our own biases. Anybody who's pro- solar is probably not going to really enjoy reading Duneberg because we tend to take a bit of rhetorical flare when we critique renewables, but there's other good stuff in Duneberg. And maybe you plug your nose at the solar stuff and you read about nuclear or you read about geopolitics”
Even the most convincing set of evidence could be a psychological operation (psyop), requiring critical readers to maintain skepticism about narrative construction.
“you do have to be a bit careful. Um, you don't want to open your mind too much. Um, lest your brain falls out, I I heard somebody say over the weekend. But having an open mind and and being aware that even the most convincing set of evidence could be a psychop.”
The Iran war predictions that oil would spike to $150-200 were wrong because there is actually abundant crude and NGLs available; people making failed predictions about oil spikes should reconsider whether they have the correct fact set operative.
“the Iran wars like everybody got it wrong. We got it wrong. You got it wrong. Oil didn't go to 150. It didn't go to 200. Okay. What does that mean? So we pivoted. Well let's we got that wrong. Let's go back and find out why. Let's try to learn. There's still people today on Twitter this morning who they are... saying that a huge oil spike is just around the corner. Like how wrong for how long do you have to be before you contemplate that maybe there's a different fact set that is operative?”
Doomberg's brand ambition is simple: when they press send on any article, they believe everything they've written in that moment, though they may change their minds, get things wrong, and will acknowledge errors in subsequent pieces.
“What our brand ambition is very simple. Um the moment we press send, we believe everything we've written. Um might we change our mind? Absolutely. Might we get things wrong? Of course. But in that moment, tomorrow morning at 5:00 a.m. um every word of blue chips um is the current view of the Dubert King held authentically and expressed politely.”
When a country is confronted militarily and demonstrates it can retaliate with precision strikes (as Iran did), this does not necessarily mean that power is escalating out of control—conversations between leaders like Trump and Putin can reduce risks more than military posturing.
“I kind of like uh President Trump and President Putin talking so that we don't lob nukes at each other. I'm I'm okay with that. I'm also okay with President Z and President Trump and President Putin talking.”
Doomberg has been writing articles opposing Russian sanctions since April 2022, consistent across multiple pieces showing pattern of analysis opposing failed sanctions regime.
“Treatment resistant is the latest in a long line of Doomberg articles that date all the way back to April of 2022. In the weeks after um sanctions were first levied against Russia's energy and its um central reserve assets were frozen, the Russians would say stolen.”
After careful analysis of drone strikes on Russian refineries, the strikes are real and annoying with measurable impact, but constitute a manageable nuisance for Putin so far—though this could change.
“we settled on after a careful analysis um that this is a manageable nuisance so far for Putin. Um could that change? Sure.”
US NGL production will reach 8 million barrels per day in 15 years, up from 2 million currently, representing a massive expansion in hydrocarbon supply that will compress crude oil prices.
“This is US NGL production. We're going to cross 8 million barrels per day of the stuff in what 15 years. um up from two.”
2026 is the year of the Fire Horse in China, occurring for the first time in 60 years, and the Fire Horse symbolizes strength and independence—which Doomberg uses as metaphor for China being built on coal burning and deriving independence from its coal plants.
“Did you know that 2026 is the year of the firehorse in China? It's it's the year of the horse. And then, you know, they have this five element wheel spinning in the background as well. And so, it's the first time in 60 years that is the year of the firehorse in China. And the firehorse is known for strength and independence.”
Trump's policy of trying to fix relationships between Canada, North America, and the Arctic is 'spot on' according to Stu, representing correct strategic priority.
“I think the Don Row policy of trying to fix our relationship between Canada, North America, and like you say, the Arctic is is spot on.”
Handling fake accounts and impersonation on social media is a real challenge for platform operators, and while Doomberg communicates issues to Substack, there's a limit to what can be done except warn subscribers.
“handling and postures on social media platforms is a real challenge for the platform operators. You know, we're pretty close to the Substack team and we routinely send Substack CEO Chris Best an email or two highlighting this and they're trying. It's hard actually.”
The 1976 US Bicentennial celebration involved fireworks mishap on military base when a private tripped causing all fireworks to detonate simultaneously, creating entertainment but ending that private's involvement with fireworks.
“when on uh 1976 when we celebrated that one um I was on a military base and uh one of the privates tripped and they had all of the fireworks go off at once and that was very entertaining. He never touched a firework again”
Turley's father, retired chief of staff of the Eighth Air Force, encountered Turkish soldiers in Saigon during Vietnam who were 'the meanest group of individuals he's ever seen in his life', informing assessment that Turkey shouldn't be messed with.
“My dad and I were talking yesterday. He's 91. Uh he uh retired as chief of staff of the eighth air force. And in Vietnam, he was in Saigon heading all of uh reconnaissance for North and South Vietnam. And uh a group of Turks came out of the jungle. He said they were the meanest group of individuals he's ever seen in his life. And he's to this day, I agree with him. I don't want to mess with Turkey.”
Orwell's 1984 committed Doomberg to always being a freethinking person, and this commitment has caused him some trouble but aligns with his brand values of publishing authentic beliefs.
“And um I remember when I first read Orwell's 1984, I committed that I will always be a free-thinking person. Um and here it's gotten me into some trouble, I suppose.”
Doomberg has a photograph with Tony Blair from a corporate event years ago, kept private to avoid association.
“I I on my phone as a photograph of me standing next to Tony Blair of all people. Don't tell [snorts] don't tell people that”
Intel building fabs (fabrication plants) in China was strategic error that Stu predicted and was proven right on, but was 'right but broke', illustrating cost of being correct without institutional power.
“Because we can't build them here. >> Yeah. But it was like, you know, I turned out to be right. >> Well, the story of your life, Ste, what can I tell you? >> Yeah, I turned out to be right, but broke. So, life is good.”
The straight of Hormuz shipping lanes are only impacted by California's energy policies under Governor Gavin Newsom, not by Iranian missile threats.
“and the funny thing is the only part of the straight hormone that is impacted is California thanks to Governor Gavin Newsome's energy policies.”
China's coal consumption in the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy is reported at exactly the same number as the prior year, which strikes Doomberg as suspect and likely inaccurate.
“I note with some curiosity that the latest edition of the statistical review of world energy has Chinese coal consumption at exactly the same number as the year prior which u strikes us as a little bit suspect to say the least.”
Stu Turley built an audience of 105,000 readers on his June 5th Energy News Beat podcast episode with David Lynn, and the goal is to exceed that with future episodes.
“that one had uhund 105,000 folks either on the articles or the listens or the watches. So, we got to do better than 105,000.”