Russia's Energy Deal With China Changes Everything - EU 'Biggest Loser': Doomberg
What this covers
This 35-minute conversation between Doomberg and Jesse Day centers on how physical constraints of energy systems — the geology of hydrocarbon reserves, the engineering requirements of electrical grids, and the economics of fuel production — shape geopolitical outcomes more decisively than policy ideology or climate commitments. The discussion opens with the US-Venezuela conflict, treating it not as a narcotics enforcement problem but as competition for the world's largest proven crude reserves. It then moves to Russia's Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal with China, which Doomberg frames as a watershed: the bifurcation of the global economy into a Western bloc and a BRICS-led global south, with Europe as the collision site and primary casualty.
The conversation spans several distinct technical and political territories. On grid engineering, Doomberg explains why solar and wind create instability when they exceed a grid's dispatchable capacity, attributing Spain's April blackout to insufficient rotational inertia from spinning turbines. On energy markets, he argues that the Permian's profitability depends on the combined breakeven of oil, gas, and liquids co-produced at the wellhead, and that US shale faces only relievable bottlenecks rather than terminal decline. On geopolitics and ideology, he describes Europe's energy crisis as self-inflicted, predicts a US military intervention in Venezuela, and characterizes what he calls "peak ESG" — the point at which physics and global production data overwhelm renewable-focused policy. The conversation also touches on gold's role as a neutral reserve asset, nuclear fuel enrichment capacity, and synthetic fuel production in China, building toward an argument that energy fundamentals will ultimately override political wishes.
Doomberg argues that energy geopolitics—particularly US access to Venezuelan oil, Russian gas flowing to China rather than Europe, and the failure of renewable-only grids—are reshaping global power structures, with the US pursuing kinetic conflict in Venezuela while Europe faces economic collapse from energy mismanagement.
- Venezuela's massive untapped hydrocarbon reserves make it a target for US military intervention, with drug cartel language masking energy piracy and resource competition
- Power of Siberia 2 redirecting Russian gas to China isolates Europe economically and geopolitically, accelerating EU collapse as it de-industrializes
- Solar overload without sufficient grid inertia causes cascading blackouts (Spain example), proving renewable-only grids are physically and economically impossible at scale
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When the US and other governments claim to be fighting drug cartels in Central and South America, they are really masking a war on energy pirates—criminal networks that operate as midstream intermediaries, collecting tolls on oil and gas shipments and intercepting fuel for black market resale, generating billions of dollars annually.
“the cartels get billions of dollars a year um in a sort of classic mafia style of taking a vig for you know uh right of way through territories that they control pipelines in particular. They're sort of um midstreamers u you might say. Um and so they intercept all manner of of fuel shipments. There's a whole black market for diesel and gasoline and jet fuel. Um way more criminality in the oil and gas space in Central and South America than is um widely reported. And so when we hear the Trump administration say there's a war on the drug cartels, we really think it's a war on black market energy pirates.”
The break-even price of oil in the Permian Basin no longer matters as a standalone metric; instead, the break-even price must account for the co-production of natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil at the wellhead, making natural gas the primary driver of economics rather than oil price alone.
“when you talk about the break even price of oil in the perian, you are talking about a number that no longer matters. the break even price of oil, NGL's and natural gas combined is what matters because you're dealing with all three of them at the wellhead.”
China is building coal-to-chemicals plants at material scale to produce jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline from coal, a process the Germans pioneered in WWII and South Africa used during apartheid, allowing China to reduce oil dependency through domestic hydrocarbon synthesis.
“China, subject of our next piece, is um building out huge cold chemicals on a scale that is actually material to oil. Look, you you can make jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline from any hydrocarbon. You just make sin gas and go from there. And China's doing it at scale. The Germans did it in World War II. South Africans had to do it during the apartheid sanctions. They still do it today. Sass has a huge coal to chemicals plant. China is burning an enormous amount of coal to make oil products to wean itself off of uh its oil dependency.”
Uranium enrichment, not uranium extraction, is the rate-limiting factor for US nuclear expansion; the US relies on Russia for the majority of enriched uranium, but enrichment capacity can be solved with a 10 billion dollar investment, making uranium supply not a constraint on US nuclear development.
“Yeah. So minor correction. Um uranium extraction is nowhere near rate limiting. What's rate limiting is uranium enrichment. The US is currently relying on Russia for the majority of its enriched uranium. And the US can enrich uranium. This is a10 billion check. Set it in forget it trade.”
California's grid would have collapsed long ago if it were a standalone grid not connected to other states; it survives only because neighbors bail it out when the sun doesn't show up, and ironically, when the sun produces excess, California dumps electricity at rock-bottom prices to neighbors because it has nowhere else to put it.
“For example, if California were not connected to other states and if California was a a standalone grid, that grid would have collapsed long ago. Um when the sun doesn't show up, its neighbors bail California out. And then, ironically, when the sun does show up now, California produces way too much electricity and dumps it at rock bottom prices to its neighbors because it has to put it somewhere. Um, it's insane what California has done. And the only thing that has bailed out California is its connections to other states via transmission lines.”
Industrial R&D protocol calls for progression from lab to pilot to market development scale to small commercial plant before building large commercial plants; renewables deployment skips pilot stage and moves directly to trillion-dollar scale without proving viability.
“We're talking about spending trillions of dollars without even running a small pilot. Like the fact that that experiment hasn't been done proves to you why it hasn't been done because it would flop. Like just take any community 10,000 build it from scratch [26:32] and then that grid can only have wind, solar and batteries. ... in industry, you go from lab to pilot to market development scale to a small commercial plant before you build the big large commercial plant. Like pretty well-known steps.”
The distinction between uranium and enriched uranium is similar to the distinction between oil and gasoline/diesel/jet fuel; raw uranium is valueless until enriched, just as crude oil is mud until refined.
“and um it's kind of like distinguishing between oil and gasoline and diesel and jet fuel. Um, if the refiners went down, the price of oil would collapse because you oil is worthless until it arrives in a refinery. Um, it's just mud before it [30:42] gets to a refinery. And so, similarly with uranium, if if if it can't be enriched, you don't have much use for it, right?”
Support for wind/solar/battery policy in countries like Austria is religious fanaticism rather than rational economics, because there is no path to reasonable prosperity based on wind, solar, and batteries — which is why no one will run a small honest pilot (e.g. a 10,000-person solar-only city), since it would flop.
“It's it's it's religious fanaticism... there is no path to reasonable prosperity based on wind, solar, and batteries. There just isn't.”
The US dependence on Russia for nuclear fuel is overblown because the rate-limiting step is uranium enrichment, not uranium extraction; enrichment is a financial constraint (a single-digit-billions check) requiring no new technology, and the US military and Energy Department will solve it quickly as part of weaning off China.
“uranium extraction is nowhere near rate limiting. What's rate limiting is uranium enrichment. The US is currently relying on Russia for the majority of its enriched uranium.”
Grid power sources fall into three categories — base load (24/7 always-on), dispatchable (controllable up or down within minutes), and intermittent (unpredictable) — and whenever intermittency exceeds dispatchability on a grid, things begin to break, which is why solar is expensive to use despite the sun being free.
“There's base load 24/7 always on. There's dispatchable which means you can control how much electricity is coming from that source over a span of minutes... And then there's intermittent which is just unpredictable.”
You can make jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline from any hydrocarbon by first making syngas, a process demonstrated by Germany in WWII, apartheid-era South Africa (Sasol), and now China at scale.
“you you can make jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline from any hydrocarbon. You just make sin gas and go from there. And China's doing it at scale.”
Venezuela possesses what many believe is the largest hydrocarbon resource in the world and has the potential to be every bit the energy power that Canada is, having previously produced 4.5 million barrels a day of heavy crude amenable to US Gulf Coast refining.
“Venezuela itself is home to what many believe is the largest hydrocarbon resource in the world. Um Venezuela has the potential to be every bit the energy power that say Canada is. Um Canada's producing you know 5 million barrels a day plus or minus. Venezuela used to produce 4 and a.5 million barrels a day of relatively heavy crude that is really amanable to um being you know sent to the US Gulf Coast for refining.”
Whenever intermittency exceeds dispatchability in a grid, things begin to break; this principle is a general rule established in Doomberg's 'Cocktail Party Trivia' presentation on winning the renewables debate.
“Um whenever intermittency exceeds dispatchability, things begin to break. Um, and so it's just everywhere you look, more solar, more expensive.”
The Russia-China Power of Siberia 2 deal (~5 BCF/day, from Yamal Arctic gas that would have gone to Europe) signals the world bifurcating into a G7-led Western bloc and a global-south/BRICS bloc, while most consequentially isolating Europe, which is de-industrializing rapidly after trading cheap Russian pipeline gas for expensive American LNG.
“the second and most consequential thing is it isolates Europe. I mean Europe has just it it is by far the biggest loser of the last five years.”
There is no longer a meaningful 'break-even price of oil' in the Permian because oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas are co-produced at the wellhead; the relevant metric is the combined break-even of all three, so high gas prices could turn oil into a near-free 'nuisance byproduct.'
“when you talk about the break even price of oil in the perian, you are talking about a number that no longer matters. the break even price of oil, NGL's and natural gas combined is what matters because you're dealing with all three of them at the wellhead.”
An overreliance on solar caused the April Spain blackout because solar is an inverter-based resource lacking the rotational inertia of spinning turbines; when a fault occurred at a solar plant, the grid lacked sufficient inertia to override it, so the whole grid collapsed.
“there was a fault at a solar plant and because the grid was so overloaded with solar in that moment it did not have sufficient inertia to override that fault and the whole grid collapsed.”
Venezuela holds what many believe is the largest hydrocarbon resource in the world and has the potential to be as significant an energy power as Canada, having once produced 4.5 million barrels per day of heavy crude well-suited to US Gulf Coast refining before its post-Chavez economic collapse.
“Venezuela itself is home to what many believe is the largest hydrocarbon resource in the world”
Gold has been rising in a straight line since the war in Ukraine began, and this is not a coincidence but rather reflects gold's function as a hedge against currency instability and geopolitical risk.
“And I think um that's not a coincidence. [when] gold goes up too quickly, it it bothers me, but gold has been kind of going up in a straight line for since the war in Ukraine, basically.”
In Spain's April 2024 blackouts, a fault at a solar plant caused grid collapse because the grid was so overloaded with solar that it lacked sufficient inertia to override the fault, demonstrating that overreliance on solar without synchronous spinning turbines creates vulnerability to cascading failures.
“Um what happened? Um there was a fault at a solar plant and because the grid was so overloaded with solar in that moment it did not have sufficient inertia to override that fault and the whole grid collapsed. So what do I mean by inertia? If you go to a coal fired power plant or a natural gas fired power plant or a nuclear power plant, you see giant spinning turbines that are ultimately creating the electricity, right? Those turbines, you know, a body in motion likes to stay in motion. Um those spinning turbines don't just stop on a dime and they often override those faults. Um small faults.”
To operate a grid with high penetration of solar, artificial inertia must be provided through big giant spinning synchronous turbines on standby, which is expensive and capital-intensive, making solar inherently expensive to use when managing a grid because it is intermittent.
“And so in order to make a grid capable of operating that much solar, you need to have artificial inertia. You have big giant spinning turbines, synchronous turbines on standby, which cost a lot of money, which is why people don't like to do it up front, right? So solar is inherently expensive to use um when managing a grid because it is intermittent.”
ESG-driven energy restrictions will be washed away by physics—the actual empirical reality that the world is setting records for coal, natural gas, and oil production in 2024, not meeting climate reduction targets, making physics rather than policy the ultimate constraint.
“that's all going to get washed away by physics. Um, you know, we study energy pretty carefully. The statistical review of world energy is sort of the bible. Um, 2024 numbers just came out in June. Record coal production, record natural gas production, record oil production.”
India is investing heavily in coal, building approximately 300 new coal mines coming online, and is desperately short oil supplies, indicating India will pursue fossil fuel development for economic growth regardless of ESG or climate pressures.
“India is investing a huge amount in coal. Um it's desperately short oil, so it's going to make it up by producing an enormous I think there like 300 new mines coming online.”
Global south is not going to forego development in the name of climate change, with energy development decisions driven predictably by arbitrage opportunities and national security considerations, things that European leaders have no concept of.
“nobody is the global south is not going to forego its development in the name of climate change. the latest example perhaps of [24:28] this uh ESG mania rearing its head still although as you mentioned you think that it it peaked in 2023 was you know Austria and Luxembourg back in 2022 filed a lawsuit against the EU to try and enull nuclear energy and natural gas from the sustainable finance tax taxonomy. This month the general court dismissed the challenge but of course because these people do not learn as you mentioned Austria is moving to appeal to the European Court of Justice. I mean is this just a matter of the political [24:59] class in Austria benefiting financially from solar and wind projects and fearing an end to that gravy train? Is it just complete incompetence or something else in your view? Um, all of these things are sort of predictably driven by arbitrage and national security. um things that obviously European leaders have no concept of”
If the US military has lost its ability to enrich uranium, the nation has much bigger problems than keeping the lights on, suggesting uranium enrichment capacity is core military capability.
“literally, um, if the US military has lost its ability to enrich uranium, uh, then we got much bigger problems than keeping the lights on.”
The true capital cost of solar is at least double what is advertised, because (per the UN Secretary General) for every dollar of solar at least a dollar must be invested in the grid to accommodate it.
“we quoted the the UN Secretary General as saying, 'For every dollar of solar, we need to invest at least a dollar into the grid so that the grids can use solar.' Okay. So, the capital cost of solar is now twice what you've been telling us.”
Gold is returning to its rightful place as the most important neutral reserve asset for settling international trade imbalances because US treasuries and European debt can no longer be argued to be neutral; gold needs to be substantially higher to serve this role, and its steady rise since the Ukraine war is not a coincidence.
“gold is um returning to its rightful place as the eventually the most important neutral reserve asset for the settlement of imbalances in international trade. Um US treasuries and European debt are no longer neutral.”
California's solar-heavy grid only survives because of transmission connections to neighboring states — neighbors bail it out when the sun doesn't shine, and California dumps excess power at rock-bottom prices when it does; a standalone California grid would have collapsed long ago.
“if California were not connected to other states and if California was a a standalone grid, that grid would have collapsed long ago.”
Once pipelines like Power of Siberia 2 are built, expanding and maintaining them are comparatively simple tasks, and this will have a bearish impact on LNG markets post-2030 as massive volumes of pipeline gas compete with liquefied natural gas.
“by the way once pipelines are built as I'm sure you know expanding them maintaining them comparatively simple tasks um this will have a bearish impact on LG markets um post 2030 this awful lot of LG coming to the market right now.”
Coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants create electricity through giant spinning turbines that act as stabilizing flywheels; these spinning turbines don't stop instantly on faults and override small faults, imposing a 'mirage of linearity' on inherently chaotic, sensitive systems.
“If you go to a coal fired power plant or a natural gas fired power plant or a nuclear power plant, you see giant spinning turbines that are ultimately creating the electricity, right? Those turbines, you know, a body in motion likes to stay in [18:15] motion. Um those spinning turbines don't just stop on a dime and they often override those faults. Um small faults. They they impose a mirage of linearity on what isn't utterly chaotic, you know, sensitive to initial conditions type system.”
European Union is anti-democratic and borderline totalitarian, existing as a giant bloating bureaucracy that grows to serve itself rather than serving the people of Europe, and the quicker it falls apart the better for European citizens.
“the European Union, the European Commission, is anti-democratic. It's borderline totalitarian. Um, it is not serving the people of Europe well at all. Is a giant bloating bureaucracy that exists to grow and to [15:38] serve itself. And the quicker the European Union falls apart, the better for the people of Europe.”
The UN Secretary General has stated that for every dollar invested in solar, at least a dollar must be invested in grid infrastructure to enable that solar to be used, effectively doubling the capital cost of solar beyond what is typically reported.
“we quoted the the UN Secretary General as saying, "For every dollar of solar, we need to invest at least a dollar into the grid so that the grids can use solar." Okay. So, the capital cost of solar is now twice what you've been telling us.”
Austria's voters supported anti-EU policies in a plurality (the AfD-equivalent won), but Austria could never form a government reflecting this preference, meaning Austrian representatives now pursue policies the people rejected.
“Austria is one of the countries where a plurality of the people voted for the opposite of this policy, but they were they could never form a government.”
Austria and Luxembourg filed a lawsuit against the EU to try to exclude nuclear energy and natural gas from the sustainable finance taxonomy, and though the court rejected the challenge, Austria is appealing to the European Court of Justice, representing continued ESG ideology despite peak ESG.
“Austria and Luxembourg back in 2022 filed a lawsuit against the EU to try and enull nuclear energy and natural gas from the sustainable finance tax taxonomy. This month the general court dismissed the challenge but of course because these people do not learn as you mentioned Austria is moving to appeal to the European Court of Justice.”
Power of Siberia 2, combined with abundant global gas, will have a bearish impact on LNG markets post-2030, because once pipelines are built, expanding and maintaining them is comparatively simple and there is enormous LNG capacity coming to market.
“this will have a bearish impact on LG markets um post 2030 this awful lot of LG coming to the market right now.”
The claim that US shale is in terminal decline and the US will cease to be a major producer is nonsense; US production faces only relievable bottlenecks (chiefly natural gas offtake capacity in the Permian), and there is effectively an infinite supply of natural gas in the US limited only by price.
“The the view that the U the US shale um is going into decline and the US will cease to be a major producer. I would just I would characterize that as as nonsense.”
A rising gold price benefits everyone's balance sheet, including the US, which could revalue its gold reserves to free up fiscal room for Treasury.
“The US could use the gold price to go up so it could revalue its gold and free up some room for Scott Bessant over at Treasury. Um everybody's balance sheet gets better when gold goes up.”
The EU has engaged in election theft and manipulation across multiple member states including Romania (where a landslide candidate was eliminated through criminal charges), Austria (where a populist party wins but is prevented from forming government), and Poland (where Donald Tusk's victory involved 'creative vote counting'), indicating systemic anti-democratic practices.
“They stole the election in Romania. I think that's not a controversial thing. Um, apparently they keep charging him with crimes. Um the name of a candidate who was going to win in a landslide. His name escapes me now. Um...Georgescu. That's right. Um everywhere you look, look, Austria, populist right-leaning party wins and um they don't allow him to form a government. Um controversial election in Poland a couple years ago where Donald Tusk won quote unquote. I think there's an awful lot of creative vote counting going on in Europe if you ask me.”
Gold is returning to its rightful place as the most important neutral reserve asset for the settlement of imbalances in international trade, as US treasuries and European debt are no longer perceived as neutral, and gold needs to be significantly higher to properly serve that role for the Global South.
“I think gold is um returning to its rightful place as the eventually the most important neutral reserve asset for the settlement of imbalances in international trade. Um US treasuries and European debt are no longer neutral. It can can't be argued that they're neutral. And so um the world runs on a neutral reserve asset and gold is going to be that asset. And I think gold needs to be a lot higher for it to properly serve that role um for the global south at least.”
German courts eliminating AfD candidates from mayoral elections represents end of meaningful democracy in Germany because if courts can do this for mayoral elections they can eliminate every AfD candidate from any election, completely controlling electoral outcomes.
“That's got to be it for democracy or any semblance of it in Germany, right? Because if they can do this for a mayoral election, then they can just do it for any election that takes place and just completely eliminate every AFA candidate that's trying to run.”
There is an infinite supply of natural gas in the United States; availability is entirely a function of price, as evidenced by the fact that when natural gas prices rise, producers will develop vast quantities of additional supply.
“Um, there is an infinite supply of natural gas in the US. Um, it's all about price, Jesse.”
When the Trump administration speaks of a 'war on drug cartels' in Latin America, it is really a war on black-market energy pirates, because the cartels are deeply interwoven with the oil and gas business — taking a 'vig' on pipeline rights-of-way and running black markets in diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.
“whenever we hear drug cartels, you really have to replace that with um with energy pirates”
The Permian Basin has recently experienced negative natural gas prices (at the Waha Hub, spot prices hit negative $1.33 per million BTU) due to unscheduled maintenance and pipeline force majeure, demonstrating that natural gas supply far exceeds offtake capacity and indicating the bottleneck is pipeline infrastructure, not production.
“at the Waja Hub right now, the spot price of natural gas is minus a$133 per million BTU.”
The European Commission and its leaders (like Ursula von der Leyen with low approval ratings, Macron at 15%, Starmer at 12-13%) are collectively unpopular and pursuing globalist policies that lack popular democratic support across Europe, indicating fundamental legitimacy crisis.
“Find me a leader in Europe. Sort of the globalist wing of the European leaders who's popular. Mcronone 15% approval rate. Starmer, even though the UK is not formally in the European Union, Starmer is doing his best to get Britain back into it for sure. What's his popularity? 13% 12%. Who elected Vanderland?”
There will be a kinetic conflict and regime-change operation against the Maduro regime that will turn Venezuela into a disaster like Libya, because the US neocon 'uniparty' fails to learn lessons of the past and 'when you're in the bomb making business, peace is a working capital problem.'
“There's absolutely going to be a kinetic conflict between the US and the Madura regime. There will be efforts to do a regime change operation. Um they'll turn Venezuela into Libya.”
Peak ESG occurred in December 2023 after COP28, and the ideology is now being 'washed away by physics' — evidenced by record coal, natural gas, and oil production in 2024, India bringing ~300 new coal mines online, and China building coal-to-chemicals (synthetic fuel) plants at a scale material to the oil market.
“we called peak ESG in December of 2023 after COP 28... that's all going to get washed away by physics.”
Seven mysterious deaths of regional AFD candidates occurred just before the German elections a couple of weeks ago, a detail that warrants attention in the context of EU election manipulation.
“the seven mysterious deaths of regional candidates from the uh uh AFD uh just before the elections um a couple of weeks ago.”
The US track record of strong man dictators on the critical path of super majors is not glorious, and the suggestion was made that Maduro should avoid flying private due to a long history of mysterious jet crashes in the oil and gas business.
“Um the track record of strong man dictators on the critical path of the super majors is not a glorious one. and we suggested that perhaps Madura avoid flying private um because there's a long history of mysterious jet crashes um in the oil and gas business.”
When Brussels and EU leaders use the phrase 'our democracy,' the emphasis is on 'our' and not 'democracy'—'our democracy' is code for rule by dictate out of Brussels, not genuine democratic governance of the EU member states.
“So, this is an EU problem, not a Germany problem. Um, whenever you hear Ursula Vanderlane or any of her minions use the phrase um, our democracy, the emphasis is on our and not democracy. Um, our democracy means rule by dictate out of Brussels.”
The definition of 'misinformation' in contemporary usage has undergone a semantic shift: it now means 'things our ruling elite don't want you to hear' regardless of whether the claims are factually true, rather than the traditional definition of false information.
“misinformation um the meaning of that word is undergoing a semantic shift. misinformation now means things our ruling elite don't want you to hear regardless of whether they're true.”
China is running into similar solar grid problems as India, California's grid is a basket case with most expensive electricity in the US, US Northeast is running into solar problems, Germany is a basket case, and the entire EU is experiencing this pattern everywhere.
“China is running into similar problems. California, of course, is a basket case. um the most expensive electricity in the US, uh the US Northeast running into it again. Germany, of course, the entire European Union. Um over and over and over again, this is exactly what we see.”
When gold prices rise, everybody's balance sheet improves, including the US government, which could revalue its gold reserves and free up fiscal space for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, making higher gold prices beneficial across the board rather than zero-sum.
“Who gets hurt if the gold price goes up? It's an interesting question. Um the US could use the gold price to go up so it could revalue its gold and free up some room for Scott Bessant over at Treasury. Um everybody's balance sheet gets better when gold goes up.”
The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline will deliver 5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from Russia to China; this is gas that could have flowed to Europe, and its redirection to China isolates Europe economically and accelerates European Union collapse as Europe de-industrializes.
“Yeah, that's a big deal. It's about 5 BCF per day. Um and just to benchmark you, you know, the US is currently producing 107 BCF per day of natural gas. Um it's it's it it tells us um two things. The world is bifurcating between the G7 US-led western financial system countries and the global south bricks SEO and Russia is going to power China, India um you know uh with its partners in BRICS and and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Um but the second and most consequential thing is it isolates Europe.”
There is an abundance of natural gas in the world, and Russia will fuel the Global South (7 billion people) along with BRICS partners while the rest of the world is hooked on US energy, reflecting a bifurcation of global energy markets.
“There's just so much natural gas in the world, Jesse. Um, everywhere. You know, you put poke a hole in the ground and there's gas coming out of it. Um, and so, you know, we're going to see Russia fueling the 7 billion in the global south. Um, along with its partners um, and we're seeing, you know, basically the rest of the world hooked on US energy.”
Russia has been a reliable supplier of enriched uranium and has not threatened to cut off supply despite geopolitical tensions with Europe and the US, suggesting Russia is using energy supply as a measured strategic tool rather than a weapon.
“Russia has been a very good supplier of this material they've not threatened to cut it off despite everything that has been going on between um Europe and the US and Russia um contrary to how uh things are portrayed”
European renewable energy policy commitment is driven by religious fanaticism, with populations voting against these policies but unable to form governments to implement alternative policies.
“It's it's it's religious fanaticism. By the way, Austria is one of the countries where a plurality of the people voted for the opposite of this policy, but they were they could never form a government.”
Hungary and Slovakia will not abandon Russian-only gas supply because asking the leaders of sovereign nations to economically impale themselves in the name of Brussels EU adventures is politically impossible—people will not tolerate such sacrifice.
“Look, Hungary and Slovakia are not going to quit. Russian only gas, they can't. You're asking the leaders of sovereign nations to impale themselves um in the name of of some Brussels u adventure. It's just not going to happen. People aren't going to put up with it.”
Power of Siberia 2 is a symptom of a greater disease: the European Union's fundamental inability to manage its energy portfolio or understand that reliable, cheap energy is absolutely critical to both economic strength and, by extension, geopolitical strength.
“Now this is not all because of the Parasiberia 2. The parasiberia 2 is a symptom of the greater disease. In this case, the European Union having no idea how to manage its energy portfolio or how critical fundamental energy is to their economic strength and by uh of course by definition then their geopolitical strength because one is just a derivative um of the other.”
No one has run a pilot test of a 10,000-person renewable-only grid (wind, solar, batteries only) to validate cost and stability assumptions, despite trillions in planned spending; the reason it hasn't been done is because it would fail and expose the unfeasibility of renewable-only systems.
“Let's build a city. 10,000 people. You're only allowed to have wind, solar, and batteries. Let's see. Build a grid. Operate the grid. Let's see what the price is. Let's see how stable it is. Let's do it. Run the pilot. You know, in industry, you go from lab to pilot to market development scale to a small commercial plant before you build the big large commercial plant. Like pretty well-known steps. We're talking about spending trillions of dollars without even running a small pilot. Like the fact that that experiment hasn't been done proves to you why it hasn't been done because it would flop.”
There will absolutely be a kinetic conflict between the US and the Maduro regime in Venezuela; the US will attempt regime change, turning Venezuela into Libya, resulting in a disaster—this is a pattern the neocon wing of the US government repeats despite past failures.
“There's absolutely going to be a kinetic conflict between the US and the Madura regime. There will be efforts to do a regime change operation. Um they'll turn Venezuela into Libya. It'll be a disaster. Um sure, that's all coming. We've seen this play dozens of times. Um you know, when you're in the bomb making business, peace is a working capital problem. And so, you know, there's going to be some bombs dropped on Venezuela.”
The European Union cannot keep all of its institutional plates spinning indefinitely; Moldova is the next hot spot where the EU will face a crisis involving Transnistria (quasi-Russian territory) and historical grievances coming to a head.
“the European Union can't keep all of these plates spinning uh indefinitely. I want to talk about uh a piece you wrote on the blackouts in Spain in April titled Fessing Up where you wrote after Spain the true cost of solar can no longer be hidden from the public. Walk us through why you think an overreiance on solar energy caused this blackout and why the Spanish prime minister was so eager to dismiss that theory calling it misinformation. I believe um the meaning of that word is undergoing a semantic shift. misinformation now means things our ruling elite don't want you to hear regardless of whether they're true. Um it was always known that if you overload a grid with too much solar um you become susceptible to the types of blackouts that we saw in Spain.”
Liberland (micro-country on Serbia-Croatia border) represents ideal location to run renewable energy grid demonstration project, as it is currently undeveloped and could host a 10,000-person city powered solely by wind, solar, and batteries at estimated cost of 20 billion dollars.
“They could do it in Liberland which is right on the border here with Serbia and [27:34] Croatia. It's its own little little country that is currently undeveloped. So I mean the the perfect perfect plot of land to attempt this experiment. Why not? Luke, I mean, just take 20 billion dollars and build a city for 10,000 people from scratch.”
The US government through channel checks and industry partners is deadly serious about weaning the country off all dependency on Russia and China, with money being spent on this problem despite popular dismissal.
“And one thing I will tell you based on our channel checks and and industry partners is the US government is deadly serious about weaning the country off of all dependency on China and money will be [31:13] spent on this problem. So this isn't China per se, it's Russia.”
The Trump administration, via Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, is capable of and probably already solving the uranium enrichment capacity problem, making uranium supply concerns overblown, particularly on social media where the issue is frequently cited as a constraint.
“Yes, the Trump administration is not only capable of solving it, but they will solve it. And they're probably already well on their way to solving it. Um, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, um, is a very knowledgeable man. Um, he's, you know, very successful businessman.”
Doomberg and co-authors called peak ESG in December 2023 after COP 28, and predictions made at that time have played out, with the Trump administration accelerating the end of ESG-driven energy policy.
“So, we called peak ESG in December of 2023 after COP 28. And I think if we go back to that piece that we wrote, um our predictions in this regard have played out, although Trump has certainly accelerated.”
The meaning of the word 'misinformation' is undergoing a semantic shift to mean things the ruling elite don't want the public to hear, regardless of whether they are true.
“misinformation now means things our ruling elite don't want you to hear regardless of whether they're true.”
The European Union / European Commission is anti-democratic and borderline totalitarian, suppressing populist parties through court eliminations and 'creative vote counting' (Romania, Austria, Poland, Germany's AFD), so the faster the EU falls apart, the better for the people of Europe.
“the European Union, the European Commission, is anti-democratic. It's borderline totalitarian. Um, it is not serving the people of Europe well at all.”
There are two ways to learn about renewable energy problems: read Doomberg, listen to Jesse's podcast, or overbuild solar and wreck your economy; many countries are taking the third approach.
“There's two ways to find these things out. You could read Duneberg, you could listen to Jesse's podcast, or you could go ahead and overbuild solar and then wreck your economy. And it seems like far too many countries um are taking the second approach.”
Hungary and Slovakia cannot quit Russian gas because doing so would impale their economies, so they will not comply with Brussels' demands to do so.
“Hungary and Slovakia are not going to quit. Russian only gas, they can't. You're asking the leaders of sovereign nations to impale themselves”
The US is currently producing 107 BCF per day of natural gas, establishing a baseline for comparison with Power of Siberia 2's planned 5 BCF per day capacity.
“Um and just to benchmark you, you know, the US is currently producing 107 BCF per day of natural gas.”
Doomberg owns some gold as a savings vehicle rather than an investment, and is bothered when gold rises too quickly, suggesting preference for gradual appreciation rather than sharp spikes.
“Um, when gold goes up too quickly, it it bothers me, but gold has been kind of going up in a straight line for since the war in Ukraine, basically...Um, I I think we own some. It's a savings vehicle. is not an investment.”
Doomberg maintains a Substack called 'Classics Read Aloud' (launched September 1, recently growing like 'gang busters'), co-founded by one of the Doomberg team members, featuring readings of classic literature, representing the 'full breadth of the Doomberg team.'
“we've also launched a sister publication. Um one of the Doomberg co-founders and its editor-inchief has launched a new substack called Classics Read Aloud. Classics read aloud.substack.com. Um as the name implies, uh it's a fun project. Um she's very passionate about great literature and um it's a really great product. We're super proud of it. We just launched it September 1st. It's been growing like gang busters.”
The US has historically been one of the top oil producers in the world, frequently taking the number one annual spot.
“they've consistently been one of the top oil producers in the world, frequently taking the number one spot on an annual basis”