Most ‘Dangerous’ Time Since WW2: Start Of WW3, Debt Default, Collapse Of Trade | Doug Casey

Student debt is destructive because people irrationally pay tens of thousands of dollars to attend college using borrowed money and are indoctrinated with Marxist concepts for four years, wasting both time and money while sadling themselves with long-term debt.

“a lot of people are still idiotically uh paying uh tens of thousands of dollars to go to college and borrowed money and be indoctrinated with Marxist Concepts”

Casey contests Trump's claim that he gave the biggest tax and regulation cuts in history, saying the cuts under Reagan were bigger and Trump should not be inaccurate in his claims.

“uh I'm afraid he won't go far enough and he shouldn't say things like biggest tax cut in history and the biggest regulation cut in history under his previous watch because it's not I mean uh it was bigger under Reagan so he shouldn't be inaccurate uh in what he says”

The US dollar will not strengthen under Trump because the US government runs a $2-3 trillion annual deficit that is monetized through Federal Reserve purchases, foreign governments like China are selling US debt, and rising money supply will devalue the dollar regardless of Trump's policies.

“I'm not sure it will and the reason is that the US government is running a two trillion three trillion dollar deficit every year and that money is monetized uh nobody's buying the US government's debt in fact foreign governments like the Chinese are selling it that's a hot potato so who can you who can the government get to finance their debt well they're mainly selling it to the Federal Reserve and the federal reserve prints up money to pay for it so the money supply is going to keep rising in the US for that reason alone so uh I'm uh I'm not optimistic about the dollar”

Social Security is a Ponzi scheme because its assets are solely government debt, and there is an excellent chance that all government debt will be defaulted on, making reliance on Social Security dangerous; a responsible person saves for their own retirement.

“Social Security it's uh counterproductive I know many people rely on it because they've been taught that they can rely on a a Ponzi scheme that the government is running because it is a Ponzi scheme Social Security's assets are solely government debt and there's an excellent chance that all government that uh will be defaulted on”

Public education is not truly free; it is paid through real estate taxes, which create a Distortion: typical municipalities levy ~2% of house value annually in real estate taxes, and because people are using miseducated and indoctrinated through this system, the tax rate effectively buys nothing of value.

“public education is free is not so it's paid by taxes mainly real estate taxes in most place places another Distortion that's created you know a lot of a lot of municipalities you're paying about 2% of the value of your house per year I understand it's crazy and your kids are being miseducated indoctrinated”

The world runs on hydrocarbons and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future; wind and solar are ridiculous and stupid as primary power sources for industrial society; there are enough hydrocarbons left for several hundred years, but nuclear power should ultimately replace them as the safest, cheapest, and cleanest form of energy generation.

“the world runs on hydrocarbons it's not going to run on windmills and uh and uh solar collectors nothing wrong with them for isolated uh unusual special circumstances I'm I'm not opposed to them but they're totally ridiculous really stupid to try to use them to power a mass industrial society and right now the way to do it as it has been for the last hundred and some years is with hydrocarbons and there's enough hydrocarbons left for several hundred years”

The Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 restricted more than 20,000 imported goods and either triggered or worsened the Great Depression; Trump's proposed tariffs of 10-20% across the board and 50-60% on China are far larger and could be catastrophic in a globally integrated economy where trade is much larger than in 1930.

“the major export of the US for the last 40 years hasn't been boeings or soybeans to start with our major export has been dollars and uh now there are who knows nobody knows 30 or 40 trillion dollars outside the United States in the hands of foreigners and unlike Americans who must use by law dollars to transact uh foreigners don't have to and I'm afraid the dollar is going to become a hot potato... trade now is a much much bigger factor in the world economy than it was in 1930 when smooth holy went into effect so yeah it's a potential catastrophe from that point of view”

The US government has grown like a cancer from 5-10% of the economy pre-1913 to nearly 50% of the economy today, directly and indirectly, and must be radically excised because it has become the enemy of the average American and treats citizens as subjects.

“before 1913 before before the world World War I started uh the US government only took about in between five and 10% of the uh economy now it's closing in on 50% directly and indirectly so it's grown like a cancer in the US and it needs to be excised”

Wealth inequality since 1989 has widened dramatically, with the wealthiest households gaining proportionally to stock market gains while the poorest have seen stagnant real wealth growth, and this is completely predictable when the state captures the economy because the trillions flowing from Washington concentrate among politically connected elites before trickling down.

“it's completely predictable when when the government when the state uh captures the economy why because the trillions of dollars that flow out of Washington and New York it's the rich guys that get to stand closest to the fire hydrant of money and they get to drink deeply before whatever and whatever's left goes to the plbs uh and they're so politically connected that they make sure that they get more of it for that reason too”

Tax cuts on corporations and individuals would stimulate the economy, and ideally the US should eliminate the income tax entirely, which would be 'absolutely marvelous' despite the catastrophic distortions and risks it creates annually

“absolutely uh in fact one thing that Trump has mentioned is he'd like to eliminate the income tax that would be absolutely marvelous uh the cost and the nuisance and the risks of filing income tax every year I mean it's it's it's catastrophic the distortions that it causes uh in the US economy yes the income tax should be eliminated”

When the Reagan administration came into office in 1980 with the theme 'if not us, who, if not now, when,' their effort to reverse government growth turned out to be ineffective, and the situation is now 'much more serious' making Trump's task even harder

“when the Reagan ites came into office in 1980 uh their uh theme song was if not us who if not now when and it turned out it wasn't them and it wasn't then uh situation is much more serious now than it was under Reagan”

The US dollar will not strengthen under Trump because the US government runs a 2-3 trillion dollar deficit every year that is monetized by the Federal Reserve (since foreigners like China are selling not buying US debt), meaning the money supply will keep rising and the dollar will debase regardless of Trump's policies.

“I'm not sure it will and the reason is that the US government is running a two trillion three trillion dollar deficit every year and that money is monetized uh nobody's buying the US government's debt in fact foreign governments like the Chinese are selling it that's a hot potato so who can you who can the government get to finance their debt well they're mainly selling it to the Federal Reserve and the federal reserve prints up money to pay for it so the money supply is going to keep rising in the US for that reason alone so uh I'm uh I'm not optimistic about the dollar”

The Western world, particularly the US and Canada, has been living above its means for a long time by borrowing, creating artificial standard-of-living gains that will reverse painfully when debts must be repaid, initiating what Casey calls the 'greater depression'.

“much of the world in particularly the Western World in particularly the US and Canada have been living above their means for a long time and the way they've done this is by borrowing money it's like if you or I borrowed a million dollars right now we could live very high off the hog for the next year but an artificial rise in our standard of living but it's going to be a very real decrease in our standard of living when we have to pay the million dollars back that's what all the debt in the world is about”

Reagan-era reformers began with the motto 'If not us, who; if not now, when?' intending radical change, but ultimately failed to reduce government, teaching a lesson that institutional reform is difficult even with ideological commitment.

“when the Reagan ites came into office in 1980 uh their uh theme song was if not us who if not now when and it turned out it wasn't them and it wasn't then uh situation is much more serious now than it was under Reagan so I really hope that Trump can pull this off”

The solution to high American manufacturing costs is not tariffs but rather the elimination of regulations and tax cuts, because Americans buy imports because costs in America are too high due to excessive regulatory burden and taxes; tariffs make the problem worse rather than solving it.

“the reason why PE why Americans buy things from all around the world is because the costs in America are too high why are the costs so high uh because we have an unbelievable moras of regulations that take costs to the Moon make the manufacturer of a lot of things completely uneconomic Point number one point number two taxes in the US are very high and of course you want to go to a lower tax jurisdiction to manufacturing things so to solve the problem you don't make the problem worse by putting on ter s you make the pro you solve the problem by eliminating regulations and cutting taxes”

Department of Defense spending could easily be cut 50-75% and is primarily enriching military contractors rather than defending America; it acts as a provocation to adversaries like China and Russia.

“the Department of Defense so-called uh could easily be paired back 50% 75% uh it it's basically enriching the military companies as opposed to defending America actually it's uh acting as a provocation to uh adver adversaries like China and Russia around the world all this military spending”

Instead of implementing tariffs to address trade imbalances, the US government should eliminate regulations and cut taxes, because high US production costs stem primarily from regulatory burden and high tax rates, not from insufficient tariff protection.

“the reason why PE why Americans buy things from all around the world is because the costs in America are too high why are the costs so high uh because we have an unbelievable moras of regulations that take costs to the Moon make the manufacturer of a lot of things completely uneconomic... so to solve the problem you don't make the problem worse by putting on ters you make the pro you solve the problem by eliminating regulations and cutting taxes”

Fifth-generation nuclear plants (small modular reactors like those used in nuclear submarines) are being developed rapidly and will drive substantial future demand for uranium; fusion power may come online in 5-50 years.

“with fifth generation nuclear plants which are the size of those used in nuclear submarines for instance uh which are being developed rapidly uh yeah there's there's gonna be a big demand for for uranium and of course in X number of years maybe maybe maybe five maybe 50 uh fusion power will come on board”

Despite Trump wanting to increase drilling for oil and gas, prices will not fall significantly because global oil and gas consumption has been increasing 2-3% per year and will continue to do so.

“the use of oil and gas around the world is been increasing at a couple percent per year and I think that's going to continue”

Electric vehicles are an example of an artificially supported industry with uneconomic fundamentals; when government supports end, workers in these industries will become unemployed but can find new jobs as unemployment is not theoretically necessary if people desire goods and services.

“electric vehicles is is one of one of many so people that are working in these artificially supported Industries are going to be unemployed well they'll can go out and find a new job which shouldn't be that hard unemployment should not theoretically be a problem because everybody has an infinite de desire for goods and services everybody does so there's no theoretical reason for unemployment except for being sick perhaps or something like that”

Trump said he would use the Constitutional power of impoundment (allowing the president to refuse to spend funds Congress appropriated) to stop unnecessary spending and return money to the general Treasury or lower taxes.

“for 200 years under our system of government it was Undisputed that the president had the Constitutional power to stop unnecessary spending through what is known as impoundment very simply this meant that if Congress provided more funding than was needed to run the government the president could refuse to waste the extra funds and instead return the money to the general Treasury”

The stock market is overpriced by all conventional metrics: price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and dividend yields are all at elevated levels, while the real underlying economy shows declining employment and massive growing debt, particularly consumer credit card debt at 18-20% interest and auto loan defaults.

“by all conventional metrics of the stock market which is at all time highs of course uh is uh price earnings ratio Price to Book value ratio uh dividend yields uh quite overpriced and in the meantime uh actual numbers of employed uh employed people is are going down the amount of debt in the uh country is is gigantic and growing it seems like more than ever people are living off their credit cards and doing so at 18 or 20% or whatever it is interest uh a lot of auto loans going into default”

Stock markets at all-time highs are significantly overpriced by conventional metrics (P/E ratio, Price-to-Book value, dividend yields), while employment is declining and consumer debt—particularly credit card debt at 18-20% interest—is at dangerous levels.

“by all conventional metrics of the stock market which is at all time highs of course uh is uh price earnings ratio Price to Book value ratio uh dividend yields uh quite overpriced and in the meantime uh actual numbers of employed uh employed people is are going down the amount of debt in the uh country is is gigantic and growing it seems like more than ever people are living off their credit cards and doing so at 18 or 20% or whatever it is interest”

Auto loans are increasingly going into default, and millions of people are borrowing tens of thousands for college degrees using debt while being indoctrinated with Marxist concepts, representing massive misallocation of capital.

“a lot of auto loans going into default uh people are still idiotically uh paying uh tens of thousands of dollars to go to college and borrowed money and be indoctrinated with Marxist Concepts”

Washington and the US government are controlled by people with the same psychology, philosophy, economic and political beliefs as the Jacobins who came after the French Revolution, and they must be 'rooted out', but there is no historical precedent for success in this kind of institutional purge.

“Washington and the US government are controlled by actual jackins and when I say that I'm not kidding these people have the same psychology the same philosophy the same economic and political beliefs as the Jacobin uh that came after the French Revolution did uh so they've got to be rooted out uh I I hope Trump can do it but you know you remember you may remember that when the Reagan ites came into office in 1980 uh their uh theme song was if not us who if not now when and it turned out it wasn't them and it wasn't then”

In a theoretical anarchist or stateless society without government intervention, there would still be wealth disparity because people have different abilities, motivation, and intelligence; however, this disparity would not be 'a structural element of society' as it is now, because political connections would no longer determine wealth distribution.

“I think you're always going to have a great disparity of wealth uh I'm I'm not a Christian but uh Jesus said uh the poor you shall always have with you why well some people are more motivated than others uh and some people are smarter than others some people are stronger than others yeah so you're always going to have people that are richer than other people you're G to have people that know how to manage their money better than others but it won't be a a structural element of society which it is now because of the political situation”

Welfare and government redistribution are destructive because they destroy incentives for self-sufficiency and cement people to the bottom of society; they should be abolished and replaced with 19th-century style voluntary mutual aid societies (beneficial societies, Kiwanis, Lions, Rotary) that provided local, monitored, and time-limited assistance.

“welfare and benefits like that W which is really stupid because it uh destroys their incentives and cements them to the bottom of society”

The first step in reversing economic decline is to 'stop digging'—cease the distortions and interventions—but Trump's policies will only help, not prevent, the greater depression, because too many structural distortions have been 'cranked into the economy' and people are undertaking uneconomic activities solely because of regulatory/tax incentives.

“the first thing is when you've dug yourself into a ditch and you want to get out of it step number one is stop digging so uh yes I think he'll try to do that but there are so many distortions that have been cranked into the econom where people are doing things that are uneconomic in reality but they're doing them because they're artificially economic because of reg regulations and uh uh tax distortions of well electric vehicles is is one of one of many”

Trump's proposed accreditation reforms—firing 'radical left accreditors' and imposing new standards (defending Western civilization, free speech, eliminating DEI positions, offering low-cost degrees, job placement services, entrance/exit exams, and taxing endowments of schools engaging in racial discrimination)—well-intentioned but represent the wrong approach: the government should be entirely uninvolved in education rather than just changing the ideological direction of state control.

“you know I have mixed feelings about this on the one hand yes the education system may need reform but on the other hand do you really want the state to be involved in matters of Education um he wants to have accreditors now um and um fire any left leaning accreditors uh you know this may be a slippery slope into State indoctrination”

Wealthy welfare and benefit programs destroy incentives and cement poor people at the bottom of society; a complete government elimination would still produce wealth disparity (as some people are smarter, more motivated, or stronger), but it would eliminate the 'structural element' of government-enforced inequality.

“the poor you know get some scraps thrown to them they get Medicaid and uh welfare and benefits like that W which is really stupid because it uh destroys their incentives and cements them to the bottom of society so yeah this is a very accurate chart”

Education is the responsibility of individuals and their families, not government; the average cost of educating a US grade school student is $12,000-$13,000 per year, which is insane; 4-5 families could hire an Oxford graduate tutor for far less and provide better education with smaller class sizes without government involvement.

“it's the responsibility of the individual ual and his family uh do you know that the and it's not just the colleges which are ridiculous the average cost of educating a grade school student in the US depends on the city of course but it's something like 12 or $133,000 per student per year that's insane I mean four or five families could get together and hire a uh an Oxford graduate tutor to School their kids and not have them sit in a room with 30 other kids that are bored to out of their minds”

Fifth-generation nuclear plants (small modular reactors similar to those used in submarines) are being developed rapidly and will drive substantial uranium demand; fusion power may come online in 5-50 years.

“I think with fifth generation nuclear plants which are the size of those used in nuclear submarines for instance uh which are being developed rapidly uh yeah there's there's gonna be a big demand for for uranium and of course in X number of years maybe maybe maybe five maybe 50 uh fusion power will come on board”

Warren Buffett is building a record $325 billion cash position because he believes equity valuations are too expensive and cannot find attractive investment opportunities at current prices, not because he is preparing to retire.

“Buffett who's fairly candid about this type of thing is said he'd love to buy some big companies but he can't because they're all too expensive and that's why he's selling I think uh and going to cash so the answer to the question is that yeah he thinks that uh there's nothing there's nothing he can buy he's not like making being a judge on the market in general he doesn't like to do that but uh so he's he's building cash”

Despite Trump's desire to see more drilling of oil and gas (which may reduce prices), global use of oil and gas has been increasing at ~2% per year and will continue to increase, supporting energy prices independent of Trump policy.

“despite the fact that Trump uh wants to see a lot more drilling of oil and gas and you think well that's going to reduce uh that's going to reduce uh the prices of those things well maybe it will but uh uh the use of oil and gas around the world is been increasing at a couple percent per year and I think that's going to continue”

Real estate taxes represent a form of non-ownership: if you do not pay your real estate taxes, the government will seize your house, proving that the government, not the individual, truly owns the property; real estate taxes should be eliminated entirely.

“you don't own your house if you pay real estate taxes if you don't pay your real estate taxes you'll find out who really owns your house so that's yet another Distortion in the economy that should be eliminated”

When an economy has dug itself into a ditch of unsustainable debt and distortions, the first step to recovery is to stop digging (stop new deficit spending and distortions); Trump's measures to cut regulations and taxes would help achieve this, though many systemic distortions will require painful adjustment as workers move from uneconomic to economic activities.

“well you know would it help it'll it'll help yes because the first thing is when you've dug yourself into a ditch and you want to get out of it step number one is stop digging so uh yes I think he'll try to do that but there are so many distortions that have been cranked into the econom where people are doing things that are uneconomic in reality but they're doing them because they're artificially economic because of reg regulations and uh uh tax distortions”

Real estate taxes are a structural distortion where citizens paying 2% of house value annually do not actually own their homes; true ownership requires the ability to keep the asset without paying perpetual levies; real estate taxes should be eliminated to zero.

“you're paying about 2% of the value of your house per year I understand it's crazy and your kids are being miseducated indoctrinated so now the government should be out of that and really estate taxes should go to zero because actually you don't own your house if you pay real estate taxes if you don't pay your real estate taxes you'll find out who really owns your house”

Government agencies should be completely abolished rather than simply downsized or reorganized, because pruning (efficiency improvements) just causes agencies to grow back stronger and bigger when the next administration takes office, so radical root removal is necessary to prevent re-growth.

“most of these agencies should be abolished they serve no useful purpose and if you just cut back the number of employees and make them more efficient uh when the Democrats are back in office and they will be uh if you fill the piggy bank that'll allow them to spend a lot more money and hire back exactly the same people that you fired it's like a plant if you prune it which is what they're planning on doing uh it just causes it to grow back stronger and bigger so no you've got to root these agencies out pull them out by the roots and pour agent orange in the ground where they grew”

Government should have zero involvement in K-12 education; average cost of educating a grade school student in the US is $12,000-13,000 per year; alternative models like groups of families hiring an Oxford graduate tutor would be vastly cheaper and better than public schooling where children sit in rooms with 30 other bored students.

“it's the responsibility of the individual ual and his family uh do you know that the and it's not just the colleges which are ridiculous the average cost of educating a grade school student in the US depends on the city of course but it's something like 12 or $133,000 per student per year that's insane I mean four or five families could get together and hire a uh an Oxford graduate tutor to School their kids and not have them sit in a room with 30 other kids that are bored to out of their minds there's lots of solutions other than the government uh uh doing schooling government shouldn't even be involved in grade schools and high schools forget about colleges”

Trump's proposal to reform higher education through accreditation is misdirected because it preserves government involvement in education; the correct solution is total government disinvestment from education because any system that allows government control can be subverted by the next administration (replacing right-wing accreditors with communist ones).

“Trump's heart isn't in the right place getting rid of the rot in the uh educ ation system but the government is the one that put the rod in there to start with and is responsible largely for the high costs by pumping money uh look what should it should be a total free market in education in in colleges uh government should be totally disin volved uninvolved from anything to do with it because if you can put in right-wing uh sound thinking accreditors now the next Administration can put in actual Communists as accreditors so this is the wrong solution quite frankly it's to get the government out of it not just change the nature of the government's involvement”

Government agencies should be abolished wholesale, not pruned back, because cutting employees or making them efficient while keeping the structure in place is like pruning a plant—it grows back stronger and bigger when the next administration takes office.

“you can't really cut the taxes unless you cut your spending uh so that's another thing that they should be doing uh the US government should radically radically pare back uh its intervention in the economy and its spending to make it possible to reduce costs here in the US”

Casey is bullish on Bitcoin; governments will adopt it as a high-tech alternative to gold and the US dollar, which is 'on its way to the graveyard' due to unsustainable deficits and currency debasement.

“I'm a Bitcoin bull uh and it's going higher for I I think a lot of reasons it's a lot of governments are going to adopt Bitcoin uh as a temporary uh alternative high-tech alternative if you would will to uh to uh gold and certainly to the US dollar which is on its way to the graveyard”

Trump states that social security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest payments on debt (now over $1 trillion), and defense spending 'can't be touched', and these four categories together comprise almost 90% of government spending, making spending cuts mathematically hopeless without addressing these massive programs.

“Trump said and this makes no sense but he said said it he said we can't mess with Social Security that's uh written in stone can't mess with Medicaid can't mess with Medicare and of course they can't do anything about the uh interest rates uh in in interest payments on the budget which are now over a trillion dollars and the other thing he said is that we can't mess with the uh Department of Defense which is one of the major sources of corruption now these things put together uh add up to almost 90% of all government spending”

Gold has reached historically cheap levels relative to resource stocks since 1971 (when Nixon devalued the dollar), with small cap gold stocks currently at the cheapest level in history relative to other stocks; historically, five resource bull markets have seen small-cap gold stocks rise 10-to-1, and some individual stocks have risen 100-to-1 or even 1000-to-1 in a few years.

“they are super super double cheap right now gold has gone up as high as 2900 so uh but the stocks have not really followed it at all so relative to gold and relative I'm talking about all Commodities now but gold in particular uh they're at the cheapest level in history relative to other stocks they're at the cheapest level in history and since 1971 when the Great uh when Nixon devalued the dollar uh we've had five resource bull markets uh that with these small gold stocks have all gone 10 to1 as a group with some individual stocks going up 10 to1 and I'm believably a thousand to one just in a few years”

Bitcoin was adopted late (2017) because Casey could not initially understand its use proposition beyond the five characteristics of sound money identified by Aristotle in the 4th century BC (durable, divisible, convenient, consistent, and usable/valuable).

“I was a uh late adopter to bitcoin I only got into it in 2017 uh why because Aristotle in the uh 4th Century BC laid down the characteristics of a sound money uh Bitcoin is durable it's divisible it's convenient it's consistent just like gold is uh but I couldn't figure out well what's the use proposition that's the fifth reason why gold is money uh it's usable”

Interest payments on the US budget have now exceeded one trillion dollars annually, representing a growing fiscal constraint

“they can't do anything about the uh interest rates uh in in interest payments on the budget which are now over a trillion dollars”

Resource stocks (mining, oil, gas, uranium) are currently at historically cheap valuations relative to gold and other commodities; gold has risen to $2900 but mining stocks have not followed proportionally, creating the cheapest relative valuation since 1971; small gold and mining stocks have historically gone 10x to 1000x during resource bull markets.

“they are super super double cheap right now gold has gone up as high as 2900 so uh but the stocks have not really followed it at all so relative to gold and relative I'm talking about all Commodities now but gold in particular uh they're at the cheapest level in history relative to other stocks they're at the cheapest level in history and since 1971 when the Great uh when Nixon devalued the dollar uh we've had five resource bull markets uh that with these small gold stocks have all gone 10 to1 as a group with some individual stocks going up 10 to1 and I'm believably a thousand to one just in a few years I think it could happen again I think it will happen again”

Bitcoin meets Aristotle's criteria for sound money (durable, divisible, convenient, consistent, usable) and offers advantages over gold as a transfer and privacy mechanism; Bitcoin will be adopted by governments as a high-tech alternative to gold and the US dollar; Casey is a Bitcoin bull because the dollar is 'on its way to the graveyard.'

“Aristotle in the uh 4th Century BC laid down the characteristics of a sound money uh Bitcoin is durable it's divisible it's convenient it's consistent just like gold is uh but I couldn't figure out well what's the use proposition that's the fifth reason why gold is money uh it's usable and I F well how is how is it usable I mean it's just a digit and then I figured it out it's a it's the perfect transfer mechanism it's a perfect privacy mechanism it's easier to store it's got a lot of advantages over gold from that point of view”

The 'hysteria' to waste massive capital on solar and wind energy is an 'insane Mania', driven by government mandate rather than market forces.

“so this hysteria to waste giant amounts of capital on uh solar and wind uh is actually it's a an insane Mania answer answer to the question”

The basic economic predictions and trends outlined in Crisis Investing (1979) regarding inflation, debt, and regulation have not changed and have instead accelerated over the past 50 years; Casey would not significantly alter the book's core economic analysis if rewriting it for 2025, only his timing on when the crisis would materialize.

“I wouldn't have been so adamant on the fact that things would come on glued and the economy would be reformed so soon but um so I would I would change that but the basic economics uh and the basic predictions not at all the trend that I outlined in that book has stayed in motion and has indeed accelerated over the last 50 years uh the amount of inflation the amount of debt uh the amount of regulations they've all gone up um so yeah I I think it's an excellent book to even read today”

The income tax should be eliminated because it causes catastrophic costs, nuisance, and distortions to the US economy; the US did not have an income tax before 1913 and could function without one by radically cutting government spending.

“the income tax should be eliminated uh people forget we didn't have even have an income tax in the US before 1913 so uh yes that could be done the only way you can do it however is that the government radically Cuts its expenses”

Casey is planning a book called 'The Preparation' that explains what young people can do instead of attending four-year college programs that saddle them with debt and indoctrinate them with Marxism; the book will cover real education alternatives that provide genuine value without corrupting ideology.

“I think what we're going to do is a book called the preparation which explains exactly what a young man or young woman uh can do instead of going to college for four years bankrupting themselves saddling themselves with debt and being indoctrinated with Marxism four years and basically wasting their time uh there there are so many things you can do with that time and money where you can get a real education that's of value and not corrupting”

The world runs on hydrocarbons and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future; wind and solar are impractical for powering a mass industrial society except in isolated special circumstances; nuclear power is the safest, cheapest, and cleanest form of power and should replace hydrocarbons long-term, with fusion eventually supplementing nuclear.

“the world runs on hydrocarbons it's not going to run on windmills and uh and uh solar collectors nothing wrong with them for isolated uh unusual special circumstances I'm I'm not opposed to them but they're totally ridiculous really stupid to try to use them to power a mass industrial society and right now the way to do it as it has been for the last hundred and some years is with hydrocarbons and there's enough hydrocarbons left for several hundred years Believe It or Not uh but actually nuclear should replace uh we should be generating power with nuclear which is the safest the cheapest and the cleanest form of power Generations not not even hydrocarbons”

Medicare is an unjustified government subsidy analogous to subsidizing people's cars, houses, or other expenses; a prudent person saves for medical expenses just as they do for retirement, and government should not pay for others' medical expenses.

“Medicare uh your expenses are largely covered if you're over 65 wait a minute uh should we cover the expenses people have on their cars uh as well I mean a prudent person uh saves for his own retirement with Social Security saves for his medical expenses Medicaid why should somebody pay for somebody else's medical expenses should should we pay for somebody else's house expenses should we pay for their car expenses their educ well we do all that too of course directly or indirectly”

The failure of the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris is more important than Trump's election victory because it represents rejection of institutional decay.

“the failure of the Democrats and kimala uh Spanish pronunciation of her name it means how bad actually uh is much more important than the election of trump”

Casey is writing a book called 'The Preparation' that explains what young people should do instead of going to college: alternatives that avoid 4 years of debt accumulation, indoctrination with Marxism, and wasted time, offering real education of value without corruption.

“I think what we're going to do is a book called the preparation which explains exactly what a young man or young woman uh can do instead of going to college for four years bankrupting themselves saddling themselves with debt and being indoctrinated with Marxism four years and basically wasting their time uh there there are so many things you can do with that time and money where you can get a real education that's of value and not corrupting”

Eventually, gold and silver mining will move to asteroids (some of which are confirmed to contain gigantic rich amounts of heavy metals), so gold is not forever as a store of value, but Bitcoin's advantages over physical gold (storage, transferability, privacy) mean Bitcoin will likely outlast gold as a monetary asset.

“and um eventually eventually uh they'll be mining gold and the asteroids which some of them have have been determined to have gigantic Rich amounts of of uh gold and silver and other heavy metals so you know gold is not going to be totally forever but uh I think Bitcoin will be it's got lots of advantages I'm a Bitcoin bull”

There is no real historical precedent for the kind of massive government downsizing Trump is proposing, though after World War I and World War II, agencies were disbanded and spending was cut back.

“no there's not a real historical precedent for it uh of course after World War I uh which was a disaster for the economy and for the world uh a lot of agent gencies were disbanded and spending was cut back same after World War II”

The current generation of US government leaders are ideologically equivalent to the Jacobins of the French Revolution, sharing their psychology, philosophy, and economic/political beliefs, and they must be 'rooted out' for Trump's reforms to succeed.

“Washington and the US government are controlled by actual jackins and when I say that I'm not kidding these people have the same psychology the same philosophy the same economic and political beliefs as the Jacobin uh that came after the French Revolution did uh so they've got to be rooted out uh I I hope Trump can do it but you know you remember you may remember that when the Reagan ites came into office in 1980 uh their uh theme song was if not us who if not now when and it turned out it wasn't them and it wasn't then”

Casey was a late adopter to Bitcoin, not acquiring it until 2017, because he needed to solve the 'use proposition' problem: Bitcoin is the perfect transfer mechanism and privacy tool with advantages over gold, meeting Aristotle's 4th-century BC criteria for sound money (durability, divisibility, convenience, consistency, usability).

“I was a uh late adopter to bitcoin I only got into it in 2017 uh why because Aristotle in the uh 4th Century BC laid down the characteristics of a sound money uh Bitcoin is durable it's divisible it's convenient it's consistent just like gold is uh but I couldn't figure out well what's the use proposition that's the fifth reason why gold is money uh it's usable and I F well how is how is it usable I mean it's just a digit and then I figured it out it's a it's the perfect transfer mechanism it's a perfect privacy mechanism it's easier to store it's got a lot of advantages over gold from that point of view”

The current geopolitical, military, and geoeconomic situation facing the incoming US administration is the most complicated since World War II.

“the most complicated geopolitical military and geoeconomic situation that the world has faced since World War II”

The population of the US has become 'too corrupted by getting freebies from the government,' and corporations are 'even worse' than the general population in their dependence on government

“the population of the US has become too corrupted by getting freebies from the government and the corporations are even worse than the general population”

Department of Defense spending could easily be cut 50-75% without compromising genuine defense; current military spending enriches defense contractors rather than defending America and acts as a provocation to adversaries like China and Russia.

“and the Department of Defense so-called uh could easily be paired back 50% 75% uh it it's basically enriching the military companies as opposed to defending America actually it's uh acting as a provocation to uh adver adversaries like China and Russia around the world all this military spending”

Social Security is a Ponzi scheme; government assets supporting it are solely government debt, and there is 'an excellent chance' that all government debt (and thus Social Security) will be defaulted on; a responsible person saves for their own retirement rather than relying on Social Security.

“I would go further though I mean look Social Security it's uh counterproductive I know many people rely on it because they've been taught that they can rely on Social Security but uh a responsible person saves for his own retirement and doesn't rely on a a Ponzi scheme that the government is running because it is a Ponzi scheme Social Security's assets are solely government debt and there's an excellent chance that all government that uh will be defaulted on”

Medicare and Medicaid should not exist; a prudent person saves for their own medical expenses just as they save for their own retirement; there is no logical basis for the state to pay for medical expenses when it does not (by the same logic) pay for car, house, or education expenses.

“Med Medicare uh your expenses are largely covered if you're over 65 wait a minute uh should we cover the expenses people have on their cars uh as well I mean a prudent person uh saves for his own retirement with Social Security saves for his own medical expenses Medicaid why should somebody pay for somebody else's medical expenses should should we pay for somebody else's house expenses should we pay for their car expenses their educ well we do all that too of course directly or indirectly”

Vivek Ramaswamy proposed that moving federal agencies out of Washington (to places like Topeka or Cincinnati, Ohio) would cause many employees to quit, avoiding severance costs and achieving personnel reduction through attrition rather than layoffs.

“you remember that when the Reagan ites came into office in 1980 uh their uh theme song was if not us who if not now when and it turned out it wasn't them and it wasn't then uh situation is much more serious now than it was under Reagan so I really hope that Trump can pull this off and it's not just a campaign blah blah this is a chart I want to bring your attention to Doug this I've shown several times on my show um like to get your reaction to this this is the distribution of household wealth in the US um since 1989”

In his 1979 book 'Crisis Investing', Casey predicted dangerous government intervention, debt accumulation, and inflation; while he was too adamant about rapid total system failure (a nasty recession in the early 1980s occurred but was followed by recovery), the basic economics and predictions remain valid; the trends he outlined have accelerated over the last 50 years.

“We had a really n nasty recession in the early 1980s but we we recovered from that so uh I wouldn't have been so adamant on the fact that things would come on glued and the economy would be reformed so soon but um so I would I would change that but the basic economics uh and the basic predictions not at all the trend that I outlined in that book has stayed in motion and has indeed accelerated over the last 50 years uh the amount of inflation the amount of debt uh the amount of regulations they've all gone up”

Casey is writing a series of seven novels (with co-author John Hunt) including 'Speculator', 'Drug Lord', and 'Assassin' where the hero progressively engages in these occupations, later becoming a 'terrorist' and 'warlord', because fiction allows him to explore topics that are risky in non-fiction form.

“I decided to write novels as an alternative to non-fiction because there are a lot of things that you can say in the form of fiction that you best not say in uh non-fiction so the first three novels of a series of seven I'm doing with uh with my friend John Hunt are Speculator drug lord and assassin uh where our hero progresses through these three occupations and we show that you can be a good guy doing very uh nasty sounding things next he becomes he's accused of being a terrorist uh where I get to talk about terrorism as a method of warfare”

Before leaving office, Biden may start World War III with Russia, attack Iran, or provoke China, adding to the dangerous geopolitical environment

“even though uh before Biden leaves office he may yet start World War I uh with Russia or may attack uh Iran uh or any any or provoke the Chinese”