The World In 2024 With Niall Ferguson: Crisis, Conflict And The New Axis of Evil
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‘The point of studying the past is to understand our present predicament’ – Niall Ferguson
There are few big thinkers better placed to explain global events than historian Niall Ferguson. He has not just a profound understanding of past crises, but also an exceptional ability to map out the longer term impact that present crises will have on world affairs.
In April 2024 Ferguson joined us on the Intelligence Squared stage to discuss the predicaments we are currently facing. How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran? With localised wars in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza and the threat of a crisis over Taiwan, are we sleepwalking towards a Third World War? And what are the likely consequences of the ongoing conflicts for the world economy?
Ferguson explored these pressing questions and shares his insights into the fast-changing global landscape.
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Ferguson argues that the 2020s resemble the 1930s and early Cold War more than commonly assumed, with a new Cold War II between the US and China now underway, characterized by proxy conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and potential Taiwan crisis, requiring Western strategic patience and deterrence while academic institutions must urgently restore intellectual freedom to counter civilizational decline.
- Cold War II has been building since Xi Jinping's rise, with Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea forming a coordinated axis conducting proxy wars across multiple regions
- The West squandered opportunities to decisively defeat Russia in Ukraine by failing to supply sufficient weapons when Russian forces were weakening, and now faces a protracted stalemate favoring Russia
- American universities have become ideologically conformist spaces enforcing DEI orthodoxy that destroys intellectual freedom, requiring creation of new institutions like University of Austin to preserve the pursuit of truth
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Scotland in the 17th century was similar to Gaza, West Bank, and Afghanistan—mountainous, clan-based, violent, with homicide rates four times higher than England—yet transformed in two generations during the Scottish Enlightenment into the intellectual center of the world, demonstrating that transformation is possible for even the most seemingly hopeless situations.
“let's go back to the 17 century the 17th century Scotland was like some cross between Gaza West Bank and Afghanistan like mountainous territory in the north full of Clans that did war for fun... it was incredibly dangerous and ungovernable with a homicide rate that was like I don't know four times that of England”
George Orwell's 1946 essay on the atomic bomb predicted with remarkable accuracy that there would be a 'peace that is no peace' between two or three atomic powers (initially predicting the Soviet Union and China would acquire nuclear weapons), that full-scale war would become impossible, and that regimes would become increasingly totalitarian—a complete sketch of what Cold War would become and what Cold War II resembles today.
“Orwell's essay uh on the atomic bomb written just shortly after the bombing of Hiroshima Nagasaki is astonishingly brilliant he says now there can't be those Wars that we've just lived through and so there will be a peace that is no peace between two or three he actually estimates three Atomic Powers remember at that point there was only one but all El sees that there will quickly be more than one that the Soviet Union will become one and he predicts also brilliantly that China will become one and he says in this world where you can't have full scale War because it's too catastrophic you will have something that is is not not really peace either where he also argues the regimes will become increasingly totalitarian”
The most dangerous potential crisis is Taiwan; if China blockaded Taiwan tomorrow, it would be very like the Cuban Missile Crisis—a situation where the US and China could be inches away from nuclear conflict, with people making mistakes or deliberately taking strategic risks and underestimating consequences.
“the most dangerous one is Taiwan that's the analogy and let me just finish the the thought if you had a full-blown crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan if for example China blockaded Taiwan tomorrow that would be very like the Cuban Missile Crisis that Bobby Kennedy lived through uh that's I think the way to think about it”
The US is not ready for a hot war over Taiwan or other contested regions, and therefore détente is the rational strategy; détente involves engaging China on multiple negotiation fronts including arms control, AI arms control, nuclear arms control, and semiconductors to reduce chances of crisis while playing for time as China's demographics collapse and its economy stagnates under debt.
“dayon is the rational strategy for the United States today with respect to China because the United States is not ready for a hot War over Taiwan or the Philippines or any place else... What Dayton means is you engage with the Communist superpower on a whole range of different fronts you negotiate with them about Arms Control AI Arms Control nuclear arms control you can negotiate with them about anything you like they want to negotiate about semiconductors good do that let's have a negotiation about semiconductors the more of those negot negotiations that are going on the less likely the Taiwan semiconductor crisis is to happen and time time is on our side the West's side much more than it's on China's side”
Henry Kissinger, in his later years, became deeply concerned about Cold War II and argued it could be worse than Cold War I specifically because of artificial intelligence; he flew to Beijing at age 100 to discuss whether AI arms limitation talks could be negotiated analogous to the SALT talks of the 1970s.
“in the later part of his life and I knew him over 20 years he became really concerned about this second Cold War... in 2022 I think it was yeah just before his 100th birthday I asked him again about it he said you know this second Cold War could be worse than the first I said why because of artificial intelligence and he was deeply preoccupied with the potential weaponization of AI to the extent that after his 100th birthday... he flew to Beijing and met with xiin ping and that was not some kind of farewell tour that was to discuss the question of could there be AI arms limitation talks”
Britain is the most racially tolerant country Ferguson has ever been in, having achieved large-scale migration and transformation of London into perhaps the world's most multi-ethnic major city without the terrible consequences Enoch Powell predicted, which should be celebrated; this is threatened by importing American implicit bias questionnaires and racial consciousness frameworks that would reintroduce divisions.
“this country is the most racially tolerant country that I've ever been in it is a truly astonishing thing that we have achieved largescale migration transformation of the capital city from an overwhelmingly White City to one that is uh perhaps the most multi-ethnic major city in the world and the the extent to which we've achieved this without any of the terrible consequences that people like Enoch PO for told should be a cause for national celebration”
Taiwan exports the most valuable semiconductors on the planet (GPUs from TSMC), unlike Cuba which exports cigars, making a Taiwan crisis economically catastrophic in addition to military risks.
“especially as Taiwan unlike Cuba exports the most valuable semiconductors on the planet Cuba exports remind me Cigars Cigars like I like cigars okay occasionally but they're certainly not as crucial to the global economy as the gpus that get manufactured by tsmc”
In wars of attrition like the Ukraine conflict, Russia has a significant advantage over Ukraine because Russia is much larger, has more raw resources, and can sustain a long war better; without sustained Western support, Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, so allowing the conflict to drag on inevitably favors Russia and produces an outcome where Russia wins if not defeated.
“it was never a good idea to let it drag on because a Russia is a lot bigger than Ukraine it has a lot more raw resources the longer the war lasts the more advantageous uh to Russia there isn't going to be a draw in this war where it's like final score 22... in this war if Russia is not defeated it will win it will win because Ukraine is not big enough enough to defeat Russia without sustained support”
Despite economic problems and Brexit, Britain retains significant strategic assets including three or four of the world's top universities (no European country can match this), leadership in AI development, and a degree of soft power, though its actual position is often misrepresented.
“Britain still despite all that I've just said has at least three maybe four of the world's top universities no European country can say that by the way and it is in terms of scientific research and technological development one of the players in AI”
The aspiring historian should not try to replicate Ferguson's academic career or that of his contemporaries because the academic job market is increasingly difficult with few tenure-track positions, low pay relative to the US, and conditions that are 'really really really tough' outside the elite universities (Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial, LSE, Kings).
“it's much harder to go into the academic world today than it was when I was your age it's harder because uh there are relatively few professional uh opportunities there are relatively few as the Americans would say tenure track jobs so the competition is very Fierce the pay in America at British universities is so low that when you quote it to Americans they say a month and it's like no a year”
Henry Kissinger's Realpolitik approach, which recognized that nations should pursue national interest rather than ideological crusades, is exemplified by his secret visit to China in 1971 and subsequent opening of relations; this pragmatic diplomacy is the appropriate model for US-China relations today.
“the biographer of Kissinger um famously he reestablished ties with China the visit by Nixon in 71 uh sorry his secret visit in 71 the visit by Nixon in 72 um and he but last year was really quite gloomy about us China relations”
The 1914/World War I parallel is less relevant than the 1930s or Cold War parallels because in 1914 there were multiple distinguishable Empires with comparable military capabilities, whereas we are in a two-superpower world; once nuclear weapons exist, risks of great power war become far higher and must be understood through Cold War deterrence logic rather than 1914 multipolar logic.
“I honestly don't think it is and I I began my career working on that period i wrote the pity of War many years ago trying to think about World War I in a new way the thing about 1914 is there are multiple Empires and they're not that distinguishable from one another in terms of military capability and economic resources whereas we're in a two superpower world”
We are in Cold War II, which began around 2018 and has been building since Xi Jinping became the Chinese leader, with China taking the lead role from what was the Soviet Union in Cold War I, though most people still haven't noticed it.
“the argument I've been making since 2018 is we're in Cold War II we just didn't notice it and some people still haven't noticed it and the reason that I make that case is that really since 1991 we had an interwar period... Cold War II represents a new version of of Cold War in which China takes the lead role from what was the Soviet Union and that I think has been building since Shian ping became the Chinese leader”
Alternative paths to being a historian without an academic job or PhD include writing books (like Andrew Roberts and Simon Sebag Montefiore did) or creating podcasts (like contemporary influential historians do), which may be more viable career paths than traditional academia.
“you don't need to become a professor of History to be a historian I have friends uh I think of Andrew Roberts for example who did not do that and who've made major contributions uh or Simon CAG want to Fury there are ways to be a historian that don't require you to take an academic job... the most influential historians in Britain today are actually doing podcasts and more strength to their arms”
The University of Austin was created with co-founders Joe Lonsdale, Barry Weiss, and others because established universities cannot be reformed from within; only by creating a new model can pressure be exerted on established institutions to reclaim intellectual freedom as their purpose rather than indoctrination.
“we reached the point Joe Londale Barry Weiss and I and a few others Pano canel we decided that the only solution was to create a new University because the old ones just couldn't be fixed and the only way to show people that academic freedom is important and matters and that the pursuit of Truth is what universities are for not indoctrination was to create one model it”
In late 2022, the Russian army was incredibly weak with mutinies and nearly cracked; Ukraine needed air superiority to achieve a successful counteroffensive, but the West did not supply the sophisticated weapons needed because of naiveté or cynicism—some believed Ukraine could break through anyway, others didn't care if Ukraine didn't win as long as it killed Russians.
“there were mutinies uh by early 2023 we had them and we failed to follow through we did not supply the weapons that the ukrainians begged for cuz they knew that they weren't going to be able to achieve a counter offensive without air superiority you just can't do that I infantry counter defenses without air superiority”
Importing American DEI and implicit bias questioning into British universities would reintroduce racial consciousness and undermine Britain's achievement of colorblindness, making skin color an issue when it currently is not in British society.
“I'm very wary of importing American attitudes into our universities and schools because once you start sending out the questionnaire saying are you guilty of implicit bias are you conscious of the color of people's skin that's you start to reintroduce the very things we've succeeded in getting rid of in this country we are quite colorblind we really are”
Young people have a profound entitlement to free thought and must be able to say stupid things in order to learn; intellectual risk-taking requires freedom from fear of irreparable life consequences, which current campus culture prevents.
“young people have a a profound entitlement to free thought they have a right to be able to say stupid stuff that's the only way you learn”
Not all people who claim the right to statehood actually receive a state in history; statehood requires getting the diplomacy and politics right and taking the win when offered; many ethnic groups and regions throughout history lack statehood without this being abnormal or necessarily unjust.
“not everybody gets to have a state look at a map of Europe in let's say 1914 not that many states there are lots of Empires hapsburg Empire Roman of Empire Holan Empire lots and lots of States remember the Ws who now thinks of the Ws the zorbs been to Zorba Stanley lately not everybody gets to have a state”
Scottish Elite gave up independence in the Union of Parliaments and Scotland became subsumed into Britain (North Britain), and only in Ferguson's lifetime did Scottish nationalism become serious political force, showing the path to statehood is contingent and not deterministic.
“Scottish Elite gave it up with the Union of parliaments Scotland became entirely subsumed into greater Britain became North Britain and only in my lifetime did Scottish nationalism really become a serious political force”
China's regime is weak and unhealthy despite appearances; its demographics are a disaster with population halving by century's end, its economy is ground down under a mountain of debt so great that fiscal stimulus is impossible, and young people are deeply disillusioned with the leadership in ways that Chinese citizens risk mentioning to Western friends.
“China's demographics are a disaster the population will half between now and the end of the century the economy is ground down under mountain of debt so great that they can't really do fiscal stimulus anymore young people are deeply disillusioned I talked to my Chinese friends when they risk it they say things that shock me about their view of the leadership like Iran the Chinese regime is not strong it's not healthy”
Reagan's initial reputation as hawkish was unfair to détente, which was a rational strategy to slow the arms race after Vietnam when the US couldn't afford to increase defense budgets; Reagan actually ended up doing détente-plus (intermediate nuclear forces agreements with Gorbachev), not repudiating détente, and Kissinger criticized Reagan at the time for being too soft.
“the extreme unfairness of the criticism of Dayton which portrayed it as aasan which it really was not Dayton was a deeply cleared attempt to engage the Soviets not to trust them to recognize them for what they were but to try to slow down the arms race and that was rational because particularly after Vietnam the United States couldn't afford to keep extreme uh increasing the defense budget and Dayton bought the United States about 10 years to recover from the disaster of Vietnam”
Russia's war effort in Ukraine would not be sustainable without Chinese economic support, Iranian supplies of drones, and North Korea's supplies of ammunition, forming a coordinated axis similar to the 'Axis of Evil' that actually exists now, unlike in 2002 when it was fabricated.
“Russia's war effort in Ukraine would not be sustainable without Chinese economic support and Iran supplies of drones and North Korea's supplies of ammunition and Iran is now likely receiving air defense systems from Russia at the same time as Iran sells its oil supposed to be under sanction to China”
China has overtaken the United States as a manufacturing power in the past two decades: in 2004 China's manufacturing value added was half that of the United States, and today it is nearly two times that of the United States, which is a complete reversal of fortunes and matters greatly for war because ammunition, missiles, and drones must be produced in millions, not hundreds.
“China has overtaken the United States as a manufacturing power to an extent that you cannot appreciate until I tell you these figures in 2004 China's manufacturing value added was 1 half of the United States today it's very nearly two times that of the United States in two decades a complete reversal of Fortunes”
Israel's strategic situation is much better today than it was 50 years ago in 1973 because it has far better relations with its Arab neighbors and near neighbors who now understand that Iran, not the Palestinian question, is the main problem in the region.
“I asked a veteran of 1973 a general uh who had been a a junior officer in 73 is the situation of Israel Better or Worse strategically than it was 50 years ago and he said much better... that compared with 73 Israel essentially has far better relations with its Arab neighbors and near neighbors and they understand what the Israelis have been saying for some time that Iran is the problem”
Even if Trump is reelected, Ukraine should not be abandoned because Trump's likely cabinet (Pompeo, Pottinger, others) is actually more hawkish than Biden and critical of the Biden administration for not being hawkish enough; Trump's isolationism is different from true isolationism because he believes in making America great, and tech war against China proved more effective than trade war, so he can be convinced.
“if he is reelected it's not like Tucker Carson's going to be Secretary of State Marjorie Taylor green is not going to be National Security advisor either the people who will staff a trump administ rtion will be Mike Pompeo Matt pottinger there's a bunch of people who we can more or less confidently expect to be involved... these people are more hawkish than the Democrats they are actually criticizing the Democrats for not having been supportive enough of Ukraine and Israel and Taiwan”
American universities have become intellectually conformist spaces where 59% of undergraduates say they cannot speak their minds in class for fear of consequences, creating a culture of fear and denunciation that is destroying universities as institutions; this is a civilizational death spiral where intellectual freedom is replaced by enforcement of ideological orthodoxy.
“59% of undergraduates right across the US say they can't speak their minds and class for fear of what might happen that is to me utterly appalling that that universities should be places where there is less Free Speech than in a Saloon bar in Wisconsin”
The path to hell for universities is paved with the sign 'Diversity, Equity, Inclusion'; these concepts, presented as nice and inoffensive, have in practice produced the opposite of their stated aims—uniformity of thought instead of diversity, no due process instead of equity, exclusion of conservatives instead of inclusion—creating an Orwellian inversion.
“the path to hell for universities has a sign that reads diversity Equity inclusion and you have to understand that I'm sorry because I know these words sound nice and nobody wants to be against them but I have to tell you that in George Orwell's 1984 where it's been the opposite of what they appear to mean so what diversity Equity inclusion turned out to me at Harvard was uniformity of thought no equity no due process for anybody who fell foul of the Inquisition and exclusion of conservatives”
The isolationist wing of the Republican party, including figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson, represents a serious but ultimately losing position because once Americans understand that Russia, China, and Iran are coordinating threats across multiple regions (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan), the isolationist position becomes untenable and Republican support for Ukraine and Israel becomes bipartisan.
“if Mike Johnson can see that reality I think over time the isolationists will flake just as they did in the 30s it's going to look like a really terrible call to have been an isolationist Tucker Carlson has destroyed his own reputation”
The Jewish state is historically necessary for the Jewish people because history has made clear they cannot take the risk of not having a state; Jews have every right to have that state in the Holy Land where they have had continuous presence for centuries, and those who would eradicate Israel 'from the river to the sea' must be defeated.
“I passionately believe and everybody in this room should believe whether they're Jewish or not that history has necessitated a Jewish state it has made it clear that the Jewish people cannot take the risk of not having a state again that they have every right to have uh that state in the holy land where the Jewish people have had a presence for centuries and that those who would eradicate them from the river to the Sea must be defeated and we must help in their defeat”
Over a 10-year time horizon, Iran's weakness can be exploited and its isolation will be the real story; the regime is hated by ordinary Iranians who are the most liberal people in the Middle East apart from Israelis, and the regime is rotten to the core, so ultimately Iran's regime is vulnerable despite current behavior.
“over a 10year Time Horizon I think its weakness can be exploited uh and over time it isolation will be the real the real story plus the regime is hated by ordinary Iranians I mean the ordinary Iranian people are the most liberal people in the entire Middle East apart from the Israelis the regime is rotten to the core”
Trump's campaign in 2016 changed the entire national security debate around China by emphasizing that China was a threat and rival rather than a partner; this created a bipartisan consensus that China is a problem, which was not the standard view before Trump and represents his achievement in shifting American thinking.
“Trump campaigned on the China issue and was initially ridiculed for it when he talked about tariffs most people made fun of him you'll remember but people forget this Ariana Huffington covering the Trump campaign in 2016 on the entertainment pages of The Huffington Post but if you took him literally and seriously you understood that the China issue really resonated with voters... Trump in the very short space of time by emphasizing that China was a threat a rival not you know a partner that we could have a win-win partnership with changed the whole debate”
The PLO was erroneously made the official representative of Palestinians, and Yasser Arafat led Palestinians in a direction that was ultimately disastrous; this was a fatal error in Palestinian strategy that foreclosed other options for Palestinian future, as Kissinger noted late in his life.
“he said it it was in the end of fatal era to allow the PLO to become the representative the official representatives of the Palestinians and I think that's right I think yasa Arafat led the Palestinians in in a direction that was ultimately disastrous”
The future for Palestinians without statehood is either integration into a democratic Israel with minority rights or relationship negotiation through Jordan and Arab neighbors; not all stateless peoples maintain separate political identity (Scotland example).
“I think the only plausible future is uh either they're part uh of an Israel in which they accept the rights and responsibilities that come with uh a democratic uh state in which uh in which there is a special place for Jews because of the historic origins of the state or and this is something I discussed with Kissinger in the final months of his life or we have to think again about Jordan”
Paris demonstrates failed integration compared to Britain—Paris is divided into 'white Paris' and 'not white Paris' with residential segregation, showing that France has not achieved the assimilation and integration Britain has accomplished.
“when you compare Britain with not just the United States where I mean cities are much more segregated in the United States on the whole but you compare it with France I've just spent a long time in Paris uh I mean Paris is two cities white Paris and then you know go further east not white Paris they complet it's shocking to be in a place like mon Paras”
The Israeli defense minister wanted to fight Hezbollah first because Hezbollah is a much more serious foe than Hamas with a vast arsenal of missiles pointed at Israel; the IDF used non-precision munitions against Hamas but reserved more sophisticated weaponry for Hezbollah, and the bigger fight with Hezbollah still lies ahead.
“Hezbollah is a much much more serious foe than Hamas because Hezbollah has a vast arsenal of missiles pointed at Israel and so the IDF couldn't afford to use its most sophisticated Weaponry against Hamas the Israeli defense minister wanted to fight Hezbollah first”
Military operations like Gaza are almost never 'surgical' despite the term; war is inherently tragic and civilian casualties cannot be eliminated; comparing Gaza to Okinawa and Mosul shows that the civilian casualty ratios were actually relatively low by historical standards of urban warfare.
“did you know that was a term Kissinger invented it's a kind of ironical term surgical strikes very very hard to make any military action surgical but I think when we consider the situation that we've witnessed in in the Middle East we have to bear in mind that what happened was Israel attempted to create a Palestinian state that was attempted on two occasions”
Britain faces very serious economic headwinds due to Brexit and the aging population, which makes it hard to increase defense spending to 2.5% as the Prime Minister promised; large-scale immigration doesn't solve this problem because demographic spending on pensions and healthcare will continue to grow regardless.
“Britain is uh at a disadvantage because it is very hard to deliver on what Rishi sunak said today to increase the defense budget 2.5% because all the other stuff is going to cost more simply because of the Aging population and I think it's reasonable to say that large scale immigration doesn't really solve that problem”
Ukraine should model itself on South Korea, not South Vietnam; it should pursue reconstruction and economic development even while having a hostile neighbor on its border, proving that Ukrainian independence was worth fighting for, so the land will eventually return.
“you've got to be South Korea not South Vietnam in other words you have to make the Reconstruction of Ukraine happen even while you have a hostile neighbor on your border just as the South Koreans did and over time over time that land will come back to you but only if you prove that it was worth fighting for Independence and democracy because you do something with it”
Iran stands behind Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and the Houthis; Iran's direct attack on Israel with drones and missiles proves that Iran is orchestrating the proxy conflicts.
“two two things are becoming very clear one is that the Israeli government has been right in saying behind Hamas Palestinian Islamic Jihad Hezbollah the houthis stands Iran and if you doubted it it's now quite open because the Iranians directly attacked Iran with by launching the biggest uh drone swarm and missile assault the first direct attack by Iran on Israel”
Hamas's attack on October 7 was in its brutality and sadism like a rehearsal for a second Holocaust, and Israelis and Jews reacted to it as such; the Israeli response destroyed Hamas militarily at a lower cost than comparable historical battles like Okinawa, with a civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio that fell from 2:1 to 1:1 by the later stages due to Israeli precision targeting.
“in its brutality indeed its sadism the attacks to my eyes and I know a lot of my Jewish friends felt the same way were like a rehearsal for a second Holocaust and that is how I think many Israelis and many non-israeli Jews reacted”
A Palestinian state is now far less likely than it was before October 7 because Palestinians had two great opportunities to achieve statehood and walked away from both; after October 7, destroying Hamas was necessary and justified, and now neither Israelis nor Arab states see a viable path to Palestinian statehood in the foreseeable future.
“I think it's far less likely far far less likely I was at the Munich security conference with a large group of of Arab and and indeed Palestinian uh friends and I said it may well be that the real significance of October the 7th was that it buried the possibility of a Palestinian State because not everybody gets a state in history they don't all get States you had two great opportunities in the past to make that happen and the PLO and subsequently uh Hamas walked away from those opportunities”
Harvard transformed from being the best university in the world in 2004 under Larry Summers to being a 'laughing stock' by 2023-24, demonstrating the destructive consequences of prioritizing DEI initiatives over intellectual freedom.
“when I went to Harvard in 2004 I was extremely excited it was the best university in the world and I really felt that I had arrived Larry Summers was President it was intellectually a vibrant Place fast forward to 2023 24 and it's a laughing stock”
Tenure, which was created to protect professors from being fired for saying controversial things, has become meaningless; professors like Joshua Katz at Princeton and Ronald Fri at Harvard were suspended or faced punishment despite tenure protections, showing that institutional inquisitions now override legal protections.
“tenure was supposed to protect you from that kind of thing that was the reason that was created not so that you had a cushy job for life but so that you could say things as a professor without fear of being fired well it turned out to be meaningless for Joshua Katz at Princeton and it pretty meaningless for Roland Fri at Harvard two years suspended without pay”
Stanford's history department told Ferguson in 2016 that despite being a Hoover fellow, they had no need for his services because he was too conservative, and then sabotaged his attempts to create a free speech series, demonstrating that structural discrimination against conservative voices in academia is institutional rather than incidental.
“I didn't teach at Stanford because the history Department said that they didn't want somebody so conservative I was a Hoover senior fellow uh when I arrived in 2016 I'd been I think one of the most popular history professors at Harvard for 12 years I was rather shocked to be told that the Stanford history Department didn't really have any need for my services uh my attempts to engage with undergraduates uh by creating a free speech uh series were sabotaged”
Brexit was economically unserious and will prove expensive; despite having a coherent economic strategy, the Trump administration's tariff policy and regulatory reduction worked (median household income rose 10% after inflation adjustment), while Brexit had no serious economic plan and would inevitably produce worse outcomes than remaining in the European Union.
“Brexit was an unserious economic program in which some hand waving would turn Britain's divorce from its principal trading partners its exit from the European Union into an economic success and it was not difficult to see that there was no way it was going to be anything other than a really expensive divorce”
Media coverage of the Middle East conflated Hamas casualty claims with verified facts; Hamas would relay casualty numbers directly to the BBC which would be 'pretty much uncritically read out'; a different picture emerges when talking to the IDF, where there were civilian casualties but not 'wildly disproportionate' relative to Hamas fighters.
“there was then a period in which uh Hamas seemed able to relay directly to the BBC casualty numbers which were then pretty much uncritically read out it's not just the BBC is it though it's the media all over the world and new yor if reporters can't get into Gaza then they have to take the information they're giving given if one actually talks to the IDF a very different picture emerges in which there were civilian casualties but they were not wildly disproportionate relative relative to the casualties of Hass Fighters”
Increased defense spending and accelerated aid to Ukraine are necessary to stabilize the military situation on the line and convince Russia that no easy win is achievable; the UK's commitment to 2.5% defense spending by end of decade, if matched by allies, can make the cost to Russia of continuing the war intolerably high.
“the time for talking about strategic autonomy is passed it is now time to deliver it that means increased defense spending and it means really accelerating the aid to Ukraine so the ukrainians can stabilize the situation which is fragile in certain parts of the line”
The reconciliation process between Israel and Arab neighbors (Abraham Accords) has not been derailed by October 7 events and should get back on track; Gulf states realize they must come up with better answers for Palestinian future but this doesn't mean Hamas should run Gaza.
“the process of reconciliation between Israel and its Arab neighbors has not been derailed by these events on the surely surely to get it back on track and we can talk about the Abraham Accords and the progress that they made there would have to be a solution to the question of Palestinian statehood or at least the future of the Palestinians post Hamas”
The Biden Administration made a grave strategic error in 2021 by reducing arms shipments to Ukraine, removing sanctions on Nord Stream 2, and signaling that if Putin escalated further there would be sanctions, which invited Putin to invade because it demonstrated weakness rather than credible deterrence.
“the first erroneous assessment was actually in 2021 when the Biden Administration reduced arms shipments uh to keev took the sanctions Off northstream 2 and said to Putin if you do anything more because of course he'd begun aggression against Ukraine in 2014 there will be sanctions I mean then Putin is like make my day that was the first mistake”
The captured Russian territory and territories under Russian control but not internationally recognized as ceded will only return to Ukraine if Ukraine proves viability as a democratic state with superior institutions, while the Russian-occupied territory will stagnate as an economic basket case.
“and then once you've established a that it's extremely expensive to continue the war for Russia B that Ukraine is viable as it stands then I think a negotiation becomes possible in the cerian sense”
By the late 18th century, Scotland was certainly the fastest-growing economy in the world; Tyler Goodspeeds has written a great book documenting how Scotland became like a tiger economy.
“Scotland by the late 18th century was certainly the fastest growing economy in the world my former student Tyler goodsby has a great book about this it was like the tiger economy”
After the Soleimani assassination, there was essentially zero blowback from Iran worth talking about because Iran is weak; now it is clear that Netanyahu wasn't making up stories about an octopus in Iran—there really is an octopus with tentacles stretching in all directions that cannot be denied after the recent Iranian attack.
“after the suani assassination after suani was killed there was absolutely zero blow black from Iran worth talking about because they're weak... Israel of course is in a stronger position since the Iranian attack cuz now it's clear it wasn't just some figment of BB netanyahu's imagination there really is an octopus in tran and its tentacles really do stretch out in all directions”
Trump will narrowly lose the 2024 election because independent voters, who decide the outcome in swing states, respond negatively to criminal conviction; polling consistently shows that a Stormy Daniels case conviction in New York would flip independents against Trump, and the economy and terrorism could change this trajectory but currently this is the baseline.
“if you look at the swing States I mean this gets decided in maybe five or six states uh like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin uh very very close in recent polling Trump would win if the election were held tomorrow but then you ask voters what if he is a criminal conviction and that flips the Independence really strikingly... if the stormmy Daniels uh New York criminal case results in a conviction which I think it will then I think he has a real problem”
A ceasefire in Ukraine while Putin retains power and military advantages is not a desirable outcome; negotiations will be necessary but only after the US election makes clear that Ukraine won't be abandoned regardless of who wins.
“it's not going to happen as long as Putin thinks he gets uh he gets an early Christmas present on November 5th and that's why I don't think there will be any meaningful negotiations until after the US election when it becomes apparent whoever wins that there is not going to be an abandonment of Ukraine”
Scotland's 2014 independence referendum failed and since then the Scottish National Party has demonstrated corruption and incompetence at such a level that there will never be another successful referendum, showing that blown opportunities for statehood cannot be recaptured.
“they blew it they blew it cuz they had a referendum and they lost it and since they lost it the extent of their corruption and incompetence has become steadily more visible and so they never will be another successful referend”
Tucker Carlson's reputation as a broadcaster has been destroyed by his Moscow trip and sanitized Putin interview; the isolationist position is increasingly becoming a laughing stock.
“Tucker Carlson has destroyed his own reputation he was a talented broadcaster he's made himself a laughing stalk a lord whor figure by his trip uh to Moscow in his scantic interview of Putin”