Simon Hunt on Gold, Base Metals, Depression + Prismo Metals Interview
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Timestamps 00:00 Simon Hunt interview 55:56 Prismo Metals company overview 57:47 Prismo Metals interview
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The global economy faces structural weakness masked by equity valuations; a geopolitical shock before end-2024 will trigger 40% equity and base metals declines, followed by inflation surge and multi-year recession, making gold the essential hedge while copper and base metals collapse through 2027 before recovering in the 2030s.
- US household real inflation is 8-10% despite reported CPI declines; job losses accelerating while equity markets remain elevated due to concentration in mega-cap tech stocks
- NATO positioning suggests imminent military escalation (Russia attack, false flag, cyber, or dirty bomb) before September 2024 that will shock markets regardless of election outcomes
- Copper and base metals face 40% decline through early 2025, then 18-24 month inflation spike pushing treasuries to 10%+, triggering depression-like conditions and asset collapses through 2027
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The real value of the dollar has declined by 75% (to 25 cents) since 1980, making it a poor store of value compared to gold, which maintains purchasing power across decades
“if you take the value of gold of of of the dollar from 1980 to today it's not worth 25 cents”
China's copper consumption is increasingly supplied by cheaper sources (Russian cathode at discounts, African LME offgrade material at discounts) which allow Chinese manufacturers to undercut global competitors, while Western consumption is flat and increasingly supplied from South America.
“China is also supplied by LM offgrade material from Africa which gets sold at a discount to the lme price but whose quality is almost equivalent to an lme [50:17] brand so China's when you're whether you're making a cable Magnet Wire that goes into an appliance for export or a copper tube that goes into an appliance for export that basic input costs are lower than the global average so they can helps some [50:48] undercut sure other competitors”
The copper market will be well-supplied in 2024 despite concentrate shortages because China's large, well-capitalized smelters can operate profitably at negotiated contract terms, while medium and smaller smelters will struggle and stop operating until concentrate supplies rebalance.
“I've just actually finished doing my numbering the market is well supplied this year despite the shortage of [33:55] concentrates um [Music] China will buy China's smelter capacity is dominated by the big smelters who are well financed well capitalized good technology and they at the media terms that have been [34:29] agreed it allows the big smelters to make money the mediumsized smelters deals will be done with their local governments the way things work in China to allow them to operate”
European governments face severe fiscal constraints and cannot afford to continue subsidies for EVs, wind, and solar indefinitely, suggesting these demand drivers are not durable
“given the fiscal situation in Europe how much longer can European governments afford subsidies for EVS wind and solar”
The Fed may not cut rates as expected if CPI numbers coming out before rate decision are not as encouraging as the market expects, and the market has priced in a rate cut with very high certainty
“what if the inflation numbers or the CPI numbers that come out before then are not as encouraging for a rate cut as the market is expecting that you don't have a rate cut”
BRICS is planning a new currency called the 'unit' that will be backed 40% by gold and 60% by local BRICS currencies (all linked to gold), which would signal the beginning of the end of the dollar's dominance if adopted.
“what Washington fears greatly is if the planned new bricks currency which is called the [25:55] unit which will be based on 40 % gold and local currencies local bricks currencies but all of them linked to Gold if that gets off the ground it's the beginning of the end of the Dollar's domination”
Uncertainty about geopolitical outcomes has been historically positive for gold because fiat currencies lose demand and the world shifts toward asset-backed alternatives, as evidenced by Eastern central banks (particularly China) actively buying gold and creating mechanisms for population to purchase physical gold.
“everything that you're telling me [23:46] here points toward uncertainty right it points toward just the population not quite understanding what's happening and how it's all going to unfold which has typically been positive for gold I mean would you make that connection as well oh yeah sure gold is telling you something it's it's it's um telling you that there's a very uncertain world [24:18] out there”
Despite new copper demand drivers like data centers, fiber optics will replace copper wiring in a significant portion of data center infrastructure, and automotive EV wiring harness manufacturers plan to replace 40% of copper wiring with aluminum in electric vehicles.
“I was reading a paper by a guy who designs and operates data [42:25] centers and he was saying watch out fiber optics are already in the data centers and the risk is that they will take over a large section of the wiring that that goes into Data Centers I mean take EVS the world's biggest producer a [42:58] maker of car wiring harnesses which is a Japanese company actually said to an industry meeting was 15 months ago 40% of all copper wiring will be replaced by aluminium in EVS”
Prismo is using AI company from California to optimize geophysical interpretation by running millions of scenarios (vs traditional hand modeling of ~6-12 scenarios) to identify best geophysical models for drilling tests, and will use down-hole geophysics during drilling combined with techniques used by neighboring properties
“what we're doing now is we're taking the next step by uh um well Pardon Me by um using an AI company out of of California to um see if we can actually optimize that geophysical interpretation and they'll run millions of scenarios and then we'll uh we'll see where all those scenarios are and then then they actually uh use the computer technology to uh to find out which of the best scenarios are the best”
NATO has sent longer-range missiles to Ukraine that can hit neighboring countries deeper into Russia, and Finland has given access to US military to use 15 Finnish military bases, demonstrating NATO is positioning itself to attack Russia whenever it chooses.
“you've [23:15] got um NATO saying confirmed by America that we're sending uh longer uh missiles to Ukraine that can actually hit neighboring countries hit further into Russia and Finland has given access to America using their 15 [23:15] military bases what are they going to put there the tension is rising so all I'm saying is that NATO has POS has positioned itself to attack when it wants to”
Prismo Metals has stacked risk-reduction factors: (1) located in prolific copper belt, (2) team has proven exploration track record, (3) timing is favorable due to copper supply shortage and major company pipeline deficits, positioning company for potential M&A if discovery made.
“it's about risks in our business and we like to stack the odds in our favor one of the good ways of stacking the odds in your favor is coming up with a good project and a good location [1:27:13] I mean we're in the heart of one of the most prolific copper belts in the industry another thing we've done is stack the team with guys that have done it before and had a lot of success doing it before”
Copper consumption growth is flat at approximately 1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 globally, and despite market talk, the copper market was in surplus of several hundred thousand tons in 2023 and will be in surplus of 150-200k tons in 2024, indicating weak demand.
“if you look at the internal industry [36:32] data despite all the market talk growth is pretty flat like around 1% this year globally and maybe 2% next year so we we have interestingly the market was in Surplus where we in 2023 to the tune of several [37:03] 100,000 tons this year the market will be in surplus of 150 to 200”
Real inflation is probably around 8 to 10%, significantly higher than reported CPI data, because oil prices, food prices, and general household expenses have not declined despite CPI appearing to hit 12-month lows.
“inflation has come down but for how much longer oil prices have not come down um food prices have not come down G en household expenses have not come down the reported CPI data frankly is um does not [2:43] capture the real cost of living that households um encounter probably real inflation is probably around 8 to 10%”
The macro macro development (recession/depression) will be a bigger force than new copper demand drivers (renewables, EVs, data centers, grid expansion), meaning demand growth cannot offset macro weakness, so base metals will collapse despite electrification tailwinds.
“the big argument is which is the bigger Force the macro all the new drivers of copper consumption whether they be [40:49] Renewables EVS um data centers expanding the grid you go into a serious recession depression the money is not going to be there”
Prismo Metals is using ZSM (induced polarization) survey to identify conductors at depth (~400 meters below surface) that align with expected limestone target horizon; a large conductor in this location may indicate copper mineralization, guiding initial drill target selection.
“the ZTE survey that we did in 2023 is really going to be an excellent guide for us uh because it's a modern exploration technique that uh really is does a good job of identifying conductors at depth and you know the conductor that we've identified is right where we expect the Limestone to be which should be non-conductive so why do we have a big conductor sitting 400 meters below surface and and one good [1:18:21] explanation for that could be well if the limestone is strongly mineralized with copper it'll become a good conductor and so so that's a good starting path”
Hot Breta contains polymictic breccias (mixed rock fragments from different sources) indicating high energy and heat in the system; vertical transportation of breccia materials exceeds 1 kilometer, with some fragments originating below limestone target horizon, confirming depth of hydrothermal circulation.
“the fact that it's polymictic is just a reflection of the fact that uh uh you know there was a [1:22:34] lot of energy and a lot of heat in this system and so the vertical transportation in that those bretches is pretty significant and as a matter of fact we've identified some rock types that look like they're quartz sites that probably Came From Below the the limestones that would be the real Target Horizon and so we know that there was deep rocks that actually got transported up through all that and transported more than a kilometer up to the surface well that tells us there there was a lot of energy in the system tells us there was a lot of heat there's a lot probably a [1:23:05] if there's you know a lot of heat and energy there's probably a a lot of fluid that came along with a lot of metals in it”
The market recession is becoming increasingly evident beneath headline data; the problem is massive concentration of valuations among a very few stocks (likely the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks), and removing these concentrated performers reveals the rest of the market is flat or falling
“the recession is becoming more and more evident uh you have this massive concentration of valuations amongst a very few stocks take them out of the equation the rest of the market is either flat or falling”
War disrupts transportation routes and supply chain logistics, which means copper needs to be in the right place at the right time; even if copper prices are rising, geographic bottlenecks could prevent delivery and availability in consuming regions
“if you're right on on the war thing isn't that going to disrupt transport routes and the way we have it right now yeah yeah no question no question and what does that do inflation it means higher copper though I mean if you not only you need copper but you need copper in the right place at the right time and if the copper cannot get from Chile to China on time then that could hold on a moment”
Prismo Metals received a drilling permit from the BLM (Bureau of Land Management) for 10 drill pads and plans to conduct 5,000 meters of drilling at the Hot Breta property in Arizona.
“you've also received a drilling permit uh from the BLM for 10 drill pads and you want to do 5,000 meters of drilling”
Fed Chair Powell stated that the Fed does not have to wait for inflation to reach 2% to begin rate cuts and could cut earlier; this reflects a policy battle in Washington between supporters of the dollar and supporters of the treasury market
“drone power coming out and saying just this week um saying something among the lines of we don't have to wait for inflation to go down to 2% for us to start cutting we could start cutting earlier”
The US economy is softening rapidly beneath surface data; job losses in the household survey were down approximately 400,000, and unemployment has increased to 4.1%, while companies are shedding staff despite establishment survey lags.
“if you look beneath the hood the US economy is softening rapidly um jobs losses and the household survey which is more accurate than the establishment was down was it [1:35] 400,000”
The group controlling Washington policy has become so desperate to prevent Trump winning that war escalation (NATO vs Russia, Israel vs Hezbollah/Iran) or domestic shock (COVID variant, dirty bomb, assassination) is likely before the November election, with probability increasing significantly after the Trump assassination attempt.
“the last thing that these pars who control the levers of power in [6:57] Washington want to see is Trump in the white house will there be another attempt on his life likely but more likely we will see an intensification of the wars in Europe and in the Middle East that basically [7:27] pits NATO versus Russia and in the Middle East Israel will launch a major attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria”
NATO has warned member governments in early May 2024 that an attack on Russia will occur and populations should stock up on food and other essentials; this message briefly appeared in the London Times and was then deleted.
“to follow what nato in early May said to me member governments that we will be there will be an attack on Russia and that you should warn your population to stock up with food and other Essentials that only briefly appeared I think it was in the times in [9:03] London and then got deleted pretty quickly”
Russia's destruction of a NATO bunker in Kiev with three hypersonic missiles killed approximately 18 NATO officers; debris from the bombing fell on a nearby Children's Hospital, which was then falsely reported by media as a Russian attack on the hospital itself.
“all the the media chatter about how Russia bombed the Children's Hospital in Kiev what really happened was something completely different which is that Russia with [20:36] three Hypersonic missiles destroyed a deep NATO bunker killing all allegedly 18 of the NATO officers in that bunker at that time and some of the debris from the B boming fell on the Children's Hospital which was [21:06] nearby”
There is a possibility (not certainty) that the 2024 US election will not occur due to war or other catastrophic event, representing an extreme tail risk scenario.
“well that leads to what I was saying earlier that the the group that control policy in Washington have become so desperate that there may not be an election you have a war you have something you have a covid [17:58] number two which has been written about spoken about bird flu etc etc that the options that they have to prevent an election are quite large”
Modern drilling equipment (250-300 horsepower) is significantly more capable than 2007-era equipment (140 horsepower), and drillers have more experience with deep drilling, making kilometer-plus holes routine in current industry.
“now I take a look around at the drills that these guys have and they're 250 to 300 horsepower they deep drilling [1:32:31] has become more of a norm in our uh in our industry today and as a result the Drillers are more experienced with this type of drilling uh they've got the equipment to be able to handle it and they uh they have Tech drilling techniques that are better uh suited to um dealing with some of those issues”
Deep drilling encounters risks including voids (especially in limestone stratigraphy), but modern drilling technology has improved handling of these challenges; voids are sometimes small enough to drill through without casing, sometimes large enough to require casing down and drilling within the casing.
“we have a particular vulnerability to hitting voids when you're working in limestones because limestones tend to dissolve and under certain water conditions and and you end up with caves [1:34:03] often the [1:34:03] voids are small enough that the guys can deal with them and they drill right through them and collar on the other side of the void and just keep on going sometimes they're big enough that you actually need to uh case down through that hole and then and then drill inside the casing to get onto the other side of the Void”
Hot Breta has six historical drill holes penetrating below volcanic cover into mineralized hydrothermal system at depth, but six holes alone do not reveal the full extent of the system; new drilling aims to work into the heart of the system using modern exploration tools including ZSM surveys, AI-based geophysical interpretation, and down-the-hole geophysics.
“what we want to find is not only the the uh details around the staig graphy but we want to find out more about the hydrothermal system that's altered it and um you know there's six holes that are drilled deep into below the volcanic cover right now well six holes doesn't reveal everything there is to know about the the area and and uh we [1:16:16] need to get down there and and uh learn much more and hopefully work our way um more into the the heart of the system”
Western banks are making a desperate attempt to suppress gold prices through coordinated selling, but this is only temporary as central banks, particularly in Asia, continue to buy at any price
“like all bull markets you have pauses and I think this one has been a desperate attempt by the Western Banks to try to give gold a kick down H but the other central banks are buying it”
Hot Breta Arizona project is located in a prolific copper district with favorable geology; nearby San Manuel deposit has 400 million tons at 0.7% copper, and Resolution deposit 40 km north has 1.6 billion tons at 1.6% copper; Hot Breta shares similar geological and structural setting to Resolution
“when you take a look look at the geologic setting and uh the structural setting of those two deposits were very uh similar at hot breta to resolution and so um I think it's changed the art of the possible for what we could potentially find at hot Brea and getting the drills turning uh will allow us to hopefully Vector in and see if we can find a giant system like resolution or even a portion of a resolution”
Historical precedent shows that equity markets decline sharply after Fed rate cuts: December 1929 minus 79%, December 2000 minus 41%, September 2007 minus 55%, suggesting the current market assumption that rate cuts will boost equities is dangerously false.
“if you look to see what happened after all previous Equity bubbles December 1929 First Fed rate [3:45] cut what happened to the stock market minus 79% December 20 December 2000 rate cut what happened to the stock market minus 41% September 2007 First Rate cut stock market down 55%”
Markets are not pricing in the impact of wars in Europe and the Middle East; four years into World War II, US markets were not pricing in war until Japan attacked Hawaii and then markets collapsed, and the current geopolitical situation mirrors this precedent.
“markets are assuming excuse me that Wars in Europe and the Middle East are some dis distant phenomen and no impact on markets but if you go back to four years into World War II us markets were not pricing in war [4:51] elsewhere until of course Japan hit Hawaii and then there was a complete collapse”
Before end of September 2024, a massive shock to the system will likely occur through either a false flag attack on Russia (forcing Russia to make first move), cyber attack, or dirty bomb, which will send equity markets and base metals down approximately 40%.
“so either we will have a physical attack or we will have a Cyber attack or even so desperate are these people controlling the levers of par somewhere there'll be a dirty bomb [9:36] so all I'm saying we don't know what's going to happen something is going to happen because these this group know that if Trump got into office Not only would they be all probably around 5,000 of them in different sectors of of Ministries and the [10:06] administration be out on the streets but there Decades of planning to dismember Russia would be wasted so the odds are pretty high that before the end of September there will be a shock that will send Equity markets and base Metals down [10:42] by around 40%”
Prismo Metals completed $1.1 million financing at 17 cents per share with half-year warrants striking at 25 cents, bringing total cash position (including $1.4 million in Visa Silver shares) to solid level for exploration funding.
“you have now closed a $1.1 million financing at 17 cents with a half two-year warrant striking at 25 cents but and maybe more importantly you've also received a drilling permit uh from the BLM for 10 drill pads and you want to do 5,000 meters of drilling”
Deep holes take 3-4 weeks per 1,000 meters to drill; 5,000-meter program is estimated to take approximately 5 months to complete if drilling one hole at a time.
“my [1:30:53] experience is that uh kilometer long drill holes take you anywhere from 3 to four weeks to drill and so it's our anticipation that 5,000 MERS would take us in the order of five months okay so one drill yeah yes absolutely”
From 2027 onwards, investors should exit all asset positions (other than monetary assets) due to expected rolling recessions or depression; only in the 2030s, after global powers coordinate spheres of interest, debt washout occurs, and GDP growth reverts to historic 4% average, will base metals enter a bull market.
“you'll enter a [39:15] period of may we 27 3 to five years of rolling recessions if not depression and therefore asset values other than your monetary assets will collapse so we get into the early 2030s and then [39:46] hopefully the big Power Global poers decide to work together split up spheres of Interest debt will be washed out we go into a long period where Global GDP reverts [40:18] back to its historic average growth seen since 1900 of around 4% a year then you're in the bull market for copper and other base Metals in the 2030s though nothing in the 2020s”
If Trump were elected, approximately 5,000 policy elites and administrators across various sectors would be removed from government, and decades of planning to dismember Russia would be reversed, creating existential stakes for the establishment
“if Trump got into office Not only would they be all probably around 5,000 of them in different sectors of of Ministries and the administration be out on the streets but there Decades of planning to dismember Russia would be wasted”
Gold investors should hold physical gold outside the banking system in personal possession, not in banks or via paper instruments, to preserve wealth through the coming crisis.
“the basic message is you have to you have to have gold in your [28:04] portfolio and prefer preferably in a place outside the banking system H so essentially just hold it physically I mean there's no other oh yeah yeah yeah yeah okay”
Next year (2025), with the dollar falling and inflation resurging, end-users will replenish copper stocks, financial community will buy physical copper and futures, and prices will rise sharply on the back of a significant deficit that emerges.
“next year with the dollar falling inflation re resurging everybody will be wanting to replenish [37:34] stocks of cathode copper and copper alloy semis products components then you will have the financial Community wanting to buy physical copper and Futures so you will see prices rising very sharply next year on the back of a significant deficit [38:07] significant”
Simon previously predicted gold would reach $2,500 per ounce by 2025, but now believes gold prices could spike to $3,000, $4,000, or $5,000 as his bearish outlook on geopolitical situation has intensified, with rapid acceleration likely rather than gradual increase.
“the first time we spoke you told me 2500 uh gold price by 2025 so 2,500 an ounce by 2025 that was kind of your price Target but as you're getting more B bearish on the world and more bullish on gold is that changing that prediction do you think we're going to see higher gold earlier sure we're nearly at 2500 [27:31] today you don't think we're going to stay here until 2025 or no no no no no I I think um we'll wake up one day and the gold price will be 3,000 4,000 5,000”
Prismo Metals' Mexico drilling at Palos Verdes is expected to start within the next month of the interview (late August 2024), contingent on driller availability; the first drilling phase will take only a couple of months with assay results expected about one month after drilling starts.
“well we're in discussions with the driller about his availability and uh we would like to start as soon as possible so uh we're hoping that within well certainly within the next month we'd [1:03:13] like to see him Mobil mobilizing the site okay so what is that what what is that money basically that you just told me about that you're going to spend what is that going to buy me specifically well the uh next phase of drilling in the puko district is going to be um opening up more potential um at depth at um Palos Verdes”
If Trump wins the election, it would be positive for copper explorers because Trump's policy would remove EV and renewable subsidies that drive artificial copper demand, allowing more efficient capital allocation and real copper supply/demand dynamics to emerge
“I mean you can you can if if Donald Trump got into the White House you can may put money on the table that one of the first things he would do would to cancel all subsidies for EVS solar and wind then you have to ask the question given the fiscal situation in Europe how much longer can European governments afford subsidies for EVS wind and solar”
Households should stockpile physical food and energy (oil), keeping fuel tanks topped up and maintaining food reserves, as inflation and supply disruptions from conflict will cause shortages and price spikes.
“there is going to be a global shortage of food okay it's already starting H and then well but okay so that so [52:22] bullish on food particularly bullish on food and with with food I assume inflation so energy too I mean bullish energy energy so househ sells should keep the oil tanks topped up don't let them run down then have to fill at higher prices keep them topped up okay so same thing as food I mean stockpile of food and energy absolutely absolutely”
Prismo Metals is operating with minimal General & Administrative (G&A) overhead, keeping people off full-time salary payroll and paying only for work performed on individual projects, with management time allocated directly to projects rather than corporate functions to maximize exploration spending.
“it's hard to predict that because like a lot of the uh my time for instance is going to be dedicated specifically to Pro uh individual projects and so it wouldn't be so much [1:02:11] corporate uh we're probably our GNA is probably about as high right now as it'll ever be because Elena and I are going out and doing a lot of uh work marketing to uh get ourselves in a position where we're going to be be able to raise funds but for the most part uh we're going to continue to focus on keeping our GNA very low no intention to get an office um you know no in intention to change employment contracts or anything like that to get guys on full-time salary I mean we're going to continue to operate in a very uh bootstrap I think is the prop [1:02:42] appropriate uh description of it method to try and keep the O those overheads low and keep as much money uh going into the ground as possible on the various projects”
The stock market will experience a severe correction but not reach a trough until early 2025, with the overall bear market lasting into early months of next year following the September 2024 shock
“we won't see the trough in business activity until the early months of next year but you see we're going to see a reaction in the stock market and and other asset prices by September of this year 2024 correct”
Silver should be used as a trading vehicle rather than a long-term wealth preservation asset like gold, because while silver has industrial demand, it is vulnerable to economic weakness that would reduce industrial copper consumption.
“I put it this way gold is a secure asset silver you use as a trading unit because I think that silver could [30:44] explode more than gold over the shorter [Music] term”
The current market correction will be of similar proportions to either the 2000 dot-com bubble or the 2008 GFC, comparing the current valuation concentration in mega-cap tech stocks (particularly Nvidia vs Cisco analogy) to historical bubble patterns
“would would what we see in the market then be worse than what we saw during the Doom bubble of 2000 or the GFC of 20 8 I think we'll see something similar very is interesting if you compare Nvidia with Cisco”
Prismo Metals plans to batch assay results together in logical groups (likely 2-3 holes at a time) rather than releasing results hole-by-hole, except where releasing individual holes makes sense.
“we'll assess that as we go along um we'll we'll release the results as we deem necessary so um we'll it's always been my preference to batch assays you know to put them together in logical groups and [1:35:07] uh if it makes sense to release them one hole at a time we'll do that but uh you know my natural inclination is to to bunch a couple of holes or three holes together”
According to experts, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump involved either Secret Service or intelligence fraternity incompetence or complicity, evidenced by the shooter's ability to walk across a field with a rifle, find a hidden ladder, climb a building while crowd members shouted warnings that were ignored.
“it's very likely that according to experts that I listen [5:54] to that the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at the Secret Service or the intelligence fraternity were not just incompetent but were complicit how can a guy walk across a field carrying a rifle find a ladder which was partially [6:24] hidden to to climb up to the top of the of the building and people in the crowd shouting to the Secret Service look at him they turn a blind eye”
The interviewer hopes Simon Mikhailovich's bearish geopolitical and economic predictions are wrong, indicating skepticism about the severity of predicted outcomes while acknowledging the logical chain of his argument.
“I mean I can I can I'm definitely naive I can attest to that part but I'm hopeful that you're wrong like I I can I can see where you're coming from but I hope you're going to be wrong because that doesn't sound like a world I to [53:23] live”
Prismo Metals is considering liquidating its Visa Silver holdings ($1.4 million at market) if immediate project funding needs require, but currently prefers to retain the liquid shares as flexibility for planning, with no structured timeline for sale.
“we're very liquid and it gives us a real good cushion so that we have flexibility in our planning going forward we can let the uh log logical uh [58:33] plan Drive the uh business of the company instead of you know what the bank account looks like it just gives us the options to be able to do different things so uh you know we you know feel very strongly about the puko district and the potential there so I think that uh hanging on to those shares would be a good option for us but uh you know we we will liquidate them if we feel that that's the best path forward at that particular time so there's no structured plan at this point”