WE049 – Decoding Energy: Power, Politics, and Personal Growth with Doomberg
What this covers
In this enlightening episode of Wicked Energy with JG, host Justin is joined by a special guest, Doomberg, who is part of a team of commodity sector executives. They detail their unique journey from the realm of consulting to carving out a niche in content creation for Wall Street. The duo shares insights into their distinctive approach to sifting through the information overload and crafting compelling narratives for their time-starved clients. They shed light on the secrets of their success, emphasizing a continuous improvement mindset, the importance of understanding their audience, and the role of passion in their work.
The conversation takes a deeper dive into the challenges of modern parenthood, exploring the question of instilling resilience in the next generation without exposing them to undue hardships. Doomberg makes a compelling argument about the fundamental connection between energy and life, criticizing political decisions driven by a lack of scientific understanding.
A significant part of the discussion revolves around the controversies surrounding the ESG movement. Justin and Doomberg propose that energy technologies should balance human well-being with environmental impacts and explore the untapped potential of nuclear power and small modular reactors (SMRs). They offer a critique of U.S. policies regarding natural gas supply and exports and propose bold solutions.
As they navigate the complex world of politics, the discussion extends to the U.S. debt limit issue, upcoming elections, and their implications for energy prices and supply. They also scrutinize OPEC's role in oil production and the controversial use of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as a political tool.
Lastly, the hosts delve into the looming crisis facing the U.S. power grid, warning of potential blackouts due to a shortage of distribution transformers and the strain of high-load devices on aging infrastructure. Tune in to this episode of Wicked Energy with JG for an engaging, thought-provoking exploration of the complex intersections of energy, politics, and personal growth.
If you are interested in learning more or connecting, see the links below:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doomberg/
Substack: https://doomberg.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Wicked Energy For more info on Wicked Energy, please visit www.wickedenergy.io.
For the video version, please visit the Wicked Energy YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCL5PSzLBnSb7u1HD1xmLOJg
If you or your company are interested in starting a podcast, visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/free-guide for a free guide on creating a successful podcast.
Lastly, if you have any topics or guests you'd like to hear on the show, please email me at justin@wickedenergy.io or send me a message on LinkedIn.
The Wicked Energy with JG podcast is opening up sponsorship opportunities with companies looking to increase reach and awareness with Wicked Energy's audience. Please visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/sponsor for more info.
Source description (no synthesized summary yet).
Doomberg argues that energy abundance is the foundation of human prosperity and that opposition to nuclear power and natural gas is fundamentally anti-human; current ESG policies and grid mismanagement driven by ideology will lead to catastrophic energy shortages and societal harm.
- Energy abundance directly correlates with standard of living; energy is the physical manifestation of the human ability to impose order against entropy
- Nuclear and natural gas are the solutions to global energy needs, but ideological opposition delays deployment; current grid infrastructure cannot support electrification mandates without critical transformer shortages
- Western energy policies that restrict domestic production create artificial scarcity that benefits adversaries like Russia and harm developing nations, while demonstrating Western hypocrisy
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If Western nations eliminated all fossil fuel use while allowing others to use them freely, the only result would be making fossil fuels cheaper for developing nations to use, thereby accelerating global consumption rather than reducing it.
“if we stop using fossil fuels today in the west and sacrificed our own cultures and our own societies all we would do is make those fossil fuels cheaper for them to use and they will use it that's what's coming”
Small modular reactors (SMRs) operating at Gen 4 designs can provide steam at 500-1000 degrees Celsius, covering a significant portion of industrial base-load heat demand currently supplied by coal, natural gas, and oil; this addresses carbon-intense industrial steam requirements that most people don't realize exist.
“the Gen 4 smrs can give you anywhere between 500 to 1000 degrees C steam which actually covers a lot of the base of the Pyramid of how much natural gas and coal and some cases oil that we're burning to create such steam you know most people don't realize just how carbon intense industrial steam requirements are”
Energy is life and standard of living is literally defined by how much energy you personally get to waste; entropy is spontaneous and the human endeavor is a constant struggle against entropy, with the amount of order you can impose on your environment determining your standard of living.
“energy is life that your standard of living is literally defined by how much energy you personally get to waste it sounds funny to people who don't really understand what we mean when we say that but it is true um you know entropy is spontaneous and the human endeavor is a constant unrelenting struggle against the forces of entropy”
Distribution transformers have a chronic shortage with lead times increasing from 4 weeks to 40 weeks to over a year; mandated heat pump and EV charger deployment is causing radical lifetime reduction in neighborhood-scale transformers designed for lower loads.
“there's a a chronic shortage of them the mandated implementation of heat pumps and electric vehicle Chargers is causing neighborhood size Transformers to have radically reduced lifetimes the the lead time to get one has gone from four weeks to 40 weeks to over a year”
Canada deployed a gigawatt of nuclear power capacity using standardized modular designs every year for 20 consecutive years, and Ontario's electricity grid is the least carbon-intensive in the western world as a result, demonstrating that nuclear deployment at scale is achievable with proper policy support.
“every year for 20 consecutive years could bring on a gigawatt of nuclear power using standard modular designs um and then have those plants operate for decades and decades and decades look I mean the Ontario electricity grid is the least common intense Grid in the western world in the world really I mean outside of Norway”
When a single plant in a tight commodity market is lost to disruption, it's beneficial to remaining producers because price increases exceed 10%, more than compensating for lost production volume, allowing producers to profit from scarcity.
“when you're in a tight commodity Market um and let's say you're operating 10 plants and one of your plants blows up perversely that's great for you because the price is going to go up way more than 10 percent you could have more than make it up on price”
Humans everywhere want higher standard of living which means all humans everywhere will always want more energy; the cleanest carbon-free way to provide it is what should be pursued; all roads lead to nuclear power.
“All Humans everywhere want a higher standard of living which means All Humans everywhere Will Always Want More Energy and the the cleanest carbon freeway we can provide it is what we should be pursuing and all roads lead to nuclear and so when we started doomberg that was our core belief”
Congressional Budget Office scoring rules for legislation create perverse incentives: future sales of assets can score as deficit reduction without discount factor, allowing current spending increases to be scored as budget-neutral, causing structural bias toward asset depletion.
“because of the way that the Congressional budget office scores that spending there's no discount Factor so if you could imagine that we're going to sell that oil in 10 years and it saves us 100 million dollars then you can increase spending 100 million dollars today and call it budget deficit neutral”
Barrier to entry in content creation is zero due to technology, but barrier to success has never been higher because everyone can now produce content; high-performing people can embrace this as tool while others are defeated by it.
“the barrier to entry in the space is zero right but the barrier to success has never been higher because the barrier to entry has been you know decimated by the the uh Advent of technologies that make it possible for anyone in the world to communicate to a large audience”
Congress has pre-authorized SPR sales totaling over 200 million barrels through legislation from 2015-2018 (FAST Act 66M, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 7M, Bipartisan Budget Act 100M), with most sales occurring in 2023-2027, making SPR refill politically impossible regardless of oil price.
“the fixing America's surface Transportation Act of 2015 calls for spr sales totaling 66 million barrels between U.S fiscal years 2023 and 2025. you know the tax cuts and jobs Act of 2017 calls for 7 million barrels over 2026 2027. the bipartisan budget Act of 2018 calls for the sale of 100 million barrels between 2022 and 2027. all these laws are still on the books and those sales will happen”
Associated natural gas from Permian Basin oil production is constipating oil output; if constrained by lack of pipelines and export capacity, the gas could replace US coal burning entirely, representing 440 million tons of coal displacement on BTU basis.
“if you sort of add up what we're flaring and what we're exporting via LNG roughly speaking that could replace the entirety of our coal burning wow in the U.S just sort of back of the envelope math um and so we're we're burning something like 440 million tons of coal this year”
Justin Trudeau made a complete 180-degree reversal on nuclear policy after Canadian citizen-advocate Dr. Chris Kiefer convinced him through meetings about Canada's CANDU reactor technology, demonstrating that well-intended citizens with pro-human agendas can shift government policy.
“up in Canada our good friends Dr Chris Kiefer at the you know Canadians for nuclear energy literally got as a citizen Advocate a doctor a medical doctor started a non-profit to save you know Canada's can-do reactor technology and to promote it and manage to talk his way into getting a meeting with Justin Trudeau himself and Justin Trudeau has done a complete 180 on the topic”
Dow Chemical and X Energy are collaborating on deployment of SMR modules at Dow's Sea Drift site on the Gulf Coast in Texas, with a plan supported by DOE to have the project operational by 2030, representing a transformational project if successful.
“Dow previously known as Dow Chemical and X energy are collaborating on the deployment of um Eddie megawatt modules I think they're going to do four of them in their sea drift site on the Gulf Coast in Texas and their plan working with the doe is to have this up and running by 2030 that is a transformational project if it works”
Democratic administrations are bullish for energy prices because they are anti-energy, causing supply constraints; conservative/pro-energy administrations are bullish for energy supply but potentially bearish for prices if they increase production, creating competing investor interests.
“as a general rule we view Democratic administrations as bullish for the price of energy right because they are anti-energy and humans want it and so um so if you are worried about the price of energy as an investor then you should want a democratic Administration sure and if you're worried about the supply of energy as a consumer then you should want a more conservative Administration”
The United Arab Emirates, a substantial oil and gas producer, is bringing online world-scale nuclear reactors, representing a long-term strategic vision where oil-producing nations invest in nuclear for future citizen welfare beyond fossil fuel dependence.
“the United Arab Emirates is just bringing on another reactor their entire I mean they've done an amazing job on a journey to bring on four world scale large reactors and to provide their citizens with decades and Decades of carbon-free cheap plentiful energy and this is a country that is you know substantially an oil and gas producer thinking so far ahead for their own citizens”
Pakistan's quarter-billion person population had functioning electricity grid powered by liquefied natural gas; Germany's energy transition scoured world for LNG, bidding prices up to $100/million BTU, shutting Pakistan out of market, causing blackouts and political upheaval; Pakistan now returning to coal.
“Pakistan had a perfectly fine electricity grid that was powered by the liquefied natural gas when Germany scored its own goal it scoured the world looking for every BTU of energy you could get his hands on regardless of cost carbon footprint or impact on the developing world and that's why we saw liquefied natural gas bid up to 100 per million btu which shut Pakistan out of the market killed their grid blackouts political upheaval all the things that come when you don't have energy guess what they're doing screw you Germany screw you European Union through our carbon commitments we're going back to call”
The expertise and relationships built during two decades in commodities and energy were essential to Doomberg's success; without that foundation, the unique aspects of their business couldn't exist.
“there's no way for example that doomberg could exist without the two decades of commodity expertise that we have and um my prior employers trained me extraordinarily well I moved all over the world I led very large teams worked in renewable energy worked in science worked you know brought amazing Technologies billion dollar projects to the market um absent all of those experiences the unique aspect of doomberg certainly wouldn't be there”
The cost and timeline of the nuclear renaissance are artificially inflated by regulatory barriers created by malthusian anti-human extremists; if standards for safety were relaxed from nine nines to eight nines, costs and timelines would collapse.
“the cost and time of the nuclear Renaissance are political choices they're not Financial ones and they're not certainly not technical ones we are so many nines down the down the path of safety and Effectiveness that it's absurd”
The carbon emissions from automotive and aviation combined are less than the carbon emissions from creation of industrial-grade steam, making SMR deployment at industrial sites more consequential for carbon abatement than all EV infrastructure despite receiving a fraction of the investment.
“for all the attention on electric vehicles for example um and the trillions of dollars being wasted um pursuing that Canard um the total carbon emissions of automotive and Aviation is less than the carbon emissions from the creation of industrial grade scheme”
Great content that doesn't market itself ends up in the 'crowded bin of great writing never read'; success requires both creating quality content AND employing marketing strategy to reach audiences.
“there's a whole bot out there that your information your intelligence your strategic insights your content is great enough to stand on its own and people should go find it and to some to many they think it's uncouth or Unbecoming to Market themselves you know with a strategy and with some effect um and we have written um that you know all this does is condemn you know your work to the crowded bin of great writing never read”
Every business (B2B and B2C) lives and dies by four objectives: 1) Who are ideal clients? 2) Where can we find them? 3) How do we entice them? 4) How do we delight them; focusing zealously on these four things requires first writing a detailed character sketch of ideal client.
“every business every business B2B b2c doesn't matter um lives and dies by the following four objectives um who are our ideal clients where can we find them how do we entice them and then how do we Delight them and if you focus like a zealot on those four things”
There are no utopian energy solutions, only tradeoffs; accepting this reality crystallizes policy debate to the substantive question of which tradeoffs to make rather than debating whether harm-free solutions exist.
“there is no utopian solution there is no green Santa Claus that necessarily is a growing chicken there is a green chicken um but it's necessarily immediately it it crystallizes the debate to the important question but we are going to make some trade-offs what are those let's identify them let's be honest about them”
France generates 70-80% of its electricity from nuclear power and maintains a developed economy despite managing reactor maintenance issues; this proves 50-year-old nuclear problem (scaling deployment) was already solved and can be replicated.
“France gets 70 80 of its electricity from nuclear power and even though it's bundled its own sort of Maintenance of of those reactors it this was all done 50 years ago”
Germany rapidly retreated to coal mines with evacuation efficiency comparable to Dunkirk in late 2022; it brought back mothballed plants, bought coal globally, and burned as many fossil fuels as needed to survive German winter, demonstrating actual priorities when faced with energy scarcity.
“Germany retreated to the coal mines with a speed and efficiency of the evacuation of Dunkirk at the moment that they saw that their grid was in Jeopardy in late 2022 they brought back mothball plants they bought coal all over the world they bought liquefied natural gas they burned as many fossil fuels as they needed to get through the uh the doldrums of the German winter”
The US government will not default on its treasury obligations; when push comes to shove, government prioritizes interest payments and debt redemption over government wages, military compensation, and park closures, making a default scenario virtually impossible.
“when push comes to shove the US government is not going to default on its treasury obligations it may not pay its government wages and that may suck for people who work at the government and maybe the parks are going to be closed and maybe some military members don't get paid or some ammunitions don't get built or some post office workers don't get their paycheck all of those things are well behind the line as far as like interest payments on Treasury coupons”
U.S. carbon footprint has been radically reduced, primarily through displacement of coal with natural gas, representing major environmental progress not commonly discussed; this success came from economic incentives, not ideology.
“the U.S has radically reduced its carbon footprint uh which is a store you don't hear very often and the primary way in which it has done so is by displacing coal with natural gas”
As a content creator, vast majority of people will never pay for content; those non-paying audiences are not your ideal clients and their opinions on pricing strategy should not influence your business model.
“as a content creator the vast majority of people will never pay you um and that's fine they aren't your ideal clients and so you shouldn't listen to them on pricing strategy for example right good point you listen to what your ideal clients are telling you”
In Japan, Canada, the UAE, and the rest of Europe outside Germany, there is a 'nuclear renaissance' with re-embracement of physics-based energy policy, while Germany grows increasingly isolated in its opposition.
“putting Germany aside the rest of the world is really re-embracing physics and coming back to nuclear as the answer you know up in Canada our good friends Dr Chris Kiefer at the you know Canadians for nuclear energy...look at Japan you know total reimbursement of nuclear power the rest of Europe outside of Germany Germany is ever more isolated the United Arab Emirates is just bringing on another reactor”
US natural gas trades at $2/million BTU in West Texas (Waha) and $10/million BTU in Europe and Asia despite being the same molecule, creating extreme regional arbitrage opportunities due to transportation constraints; in December SoCal traded at $55/million BTU while Waha was negative because gas constrained oil production.
“you know ten dollars a million btu and two bucks here we have a five to one spread right um we have this amazing abundance but because California and New England haven't built the Pipelines um we had in December SoCal trading at 55 a million btu and waha up in the Permian Basin that negative they couldn't give it away”
Doomberg published 'Pass the Salt' documenting that Congressional appropriators from both parties have pre-sold future Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil (10 years out) as budgeting gimmick to game Congressional Budget Office scoring without real discount factors.
“we uh wrote a piece in October called pass the salt um where we talked about the salt domes and the um the actual structure of the Strategic petroleum reserve and what they were meant to be and and um in fact it can store as much as 727 million barrels of oil um here's a dirty secret um for the better part of the past decade um appropriators of both parties have been pre-selling um oil from the Strategic petroleum Reserve as a way to gain the Congressional budget office's scoring of their bills”
The anti-human malthusian origins of the modern environmental movement are undeniable; many key leaders are actually anti-human and have dressed anti-human objectives in standard propaganda language, with explicit historical evidence including a book titled 'Too Many Asians' bemoaning Southeast Asian population growth.
“there's a book that we quoted in a piece literally titled too many Asians and it bemoans the population explosion that they uh foresaw in Southeast Asia and the underlying message is if we don't stop this population from exploding they're going to hoard the resources that we would otherwise enjoy”
Vast majority of German homes don't have air conditioning; heat pumps provide AC for the first time; incremental AC use by German households in summer will likely offset any theoretical carbon emissions saved by replacing natural gas furnaces with heat pumps, exemplifying law of unintended consequences.
“the vast majority of German homes don't have air conditioning units well there's a heat pump the heat pump is both a furnace and an AC unit right millions of German homes will now have AC for the first time what do you think is going to happen in the summer some some models indicate that the incremental use of air conditioning by German households well more than offset any carbon emissions uh theoretically saved by using heat pumps in place of natural gas powered furnaces”
Low SPR levels create significant energy security risk because the reserve was designed for emergency use, and current depletion makes the U.S. vulnerable if a future crisis (hurricane, snowstorm, etc.) requires rapid oil mobilization.
“it's probably the same people that are mad at oil and gas companies when gasoline was at five dollars a gallon yeah look exactly this is what caused fighting a panic so I'll just I pulled up the piece while we were talking so I'll give you one example the fixing America's surface Transportation Act of 2015 calls for spr sales totaling 66 million barrels between U.S fiscal years 2023 and 2025...and in fact it can store as much as 727 million barrels of oil”
Doomberg measures 45 data points around the business daily and maintains continuous improvement mindset; when content doesn't land, they ask pointed questions about every variable (topic, pacing, editing, intro length, audience fit).
“we measure 45 data points around our business and we to quote Jim Harbaugh approached the Denberg project with an enthusiasm unknown to Mankind and you could only really do that if it is your passion...we have no hesitation to ask pointed questions about why some things didn't work and others did hey that piece didn't land why like what was it the wrong topic was to cut the paid at the wrong spot could the editing have been tighter was the intro too long you know did we annoy our ideal clients um we asked every single day”
If nuclear fission had been invented today it would be hailed as a civilization-saving invention and would be implemented immediately, yet the proof of anti-human malthusian origins of the radical environmental movement is their steadfast illogical opposition to nuclear power.
“literally if Vision was invented today it would be hailed as a civilization saving uh invention um and we would be implementing it post haste and in fact the proof of the anti-human malthusian origins of the radical environmental movement is their steadfast any logical opposition to nuclear power”
Physical oil market is much tighter than the paper price indicates; the paper market for oil is dwarfed by the physical market size, and there is a long history of state actors influencing prices through mechanisms like Libor price fixing.
“the physical market for oil is much tighter than the paper price of oil would indicate...the paper price of oil not to get too conspiratorial but you know that when you talk about the paper price of gold and and the physical markets and so on um there's a long history uh uh of of let's say State actors influencing prices”
Russian sanctions regime failed from the beginning because commodity markets make money on price not volume; constraining Russian oil volume drives prices higher, increasing Putin's total revenue, whereas flooding the market with additional oil would collapse prices and revenue.
“there's something we've written about for the Russian sanctions and why we knew they would fail from the beginning like anybody who's ever spent time in Industry knows you make all your money on price not volume and so our whole sanctions regime is erroneously directed towards trying to constipate his volume which is only going to drive the price much higher”
Motor (work ethic/drive) explains more variance in life outcomes than IQ; if selecting between motor and IQ, bet on motor every time; the speaker's motor was born from childhood desperation/poverty while his children lack this necessity-driven motivation.
“if you had me select between motor and sort of IQ I I would bet on motor every time I mean it's nice to have both of course but the you know the parameter which explains most of the variance in life is motor not IQ and my motor was born out of desperation and my kids are just simply not going to have that experience”
Coal use hit record year in 2022 and will set another record in 2023; Pakistan, India, China, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa are all returning to coal in response to Western energy policies, causing regression to mean that overshoots Western hypocrisy.
“Paul had a record year in 2022 and it will set another record in 2023. what have we accomplished all we've accomplished is we've demonstrated the Western hypocrisy the G7 hypocrisy to the four billion people that are in the club...Indonesia Pakistan China you name it India they're all going back to coal”
Doomberg is less enthusiastic about fusion than at founding because fission solves all the problems anyway; fusion is a distraction from pursuing deployment-ready fission technology.
“were far less enthusiastic about Fusion than we probably were at the beginning because fission solves all the problems anyway infusion is just a distraction”
OPEC Plus has a required price level closer to $100/barrel than $70 because member-state budgets and societies are built on oil revenue; they have never been more united, especially after Biden Administration's alleged backdoor promise to refill SPR went unfulfilled and abuse of SPR for political purposes unified the group.
“OPEC plus um they have a price they need not a price they want they have built societies and budgets where they have a price that they need I think that price is probably closer to 100 than it is to 70. and I do think that we'll have the discipline I think they've never been more united”
SPR can store as much as 727 million barrels of oil in salt domes; it's now at roughly 357 million barrels, down from over 600 million; the odds of it ever being refilled are 'indistinguishable from zero' due to political opposition on the left.
“it can store as much as 727 million barrels of oil um here's a dirty secret um for the better part of the past decade um appropriators of both parties have been pre-selling um oil from the Strategic petroleum Reserve”
To live to do work one finds meaningful ('get to' not 'have to'), one must identify what work is authentically suited to oneself and then apply relentless focus and continuous improvement until success is achieved.
“when you find out what you're doing in life just keep doing it”
Gen 4 SMRs are inherently safe with walk-away shutdown capability, making meltdowns physically impossible based on fuel and reactor design, unlike older generation reactors.
“smrs and the fourth generation reactor designs generally are inherently safe you know walk away shut down um literally physically impossible to um to have a meltdown which is based on the fuel design and the reactor design”
The proliferation of information functions as a curative filter for content creators who embrace it, turning the firehose of raw data into a sluice box operation where quality signal is systematically separated from noise for audiences lacking time to do this work themselves.
“if you approach it with there's amazing free signal out there and in our case we're going to go find it curate it and shape it into a great narrative for our readers who don't have the time to do so because they're not doing this full-time like we are and they have day jobs and they want to find a reliable trusted source to curate complexity for them then the proliferation of information is a godsend for us this is the ultimate infinite pile of hater that would pile into the front of our sluice box and every week we go and roll up the mats and see how much gold is in there”
The optimal energy policy objective is to maximize the ratio of total standard of living provided to humanity divided by ecological impact; optimizing only for impact reduction necessarily results in far fewer humans, while ignoring impact maximizes planetary damage.
“we would propose that this is the following equation that we should optimize the ratio of the total standard of living we can provide as many humans as possible divided by our impact on the planet and if you focus only on the impact then you necessarily end up with far fewer humans whereas if you ignore the impact you necessarily end up with far greater damage to the planet there is a needle to be thread here which is as long as our North Star is that ratio”
Anybody who thinks nuclear waste is a serious issue is either a victim of propaganda or a knowing purveyor of it; nuclear waste is not a legitimate concern.
“anybody who thinks nuclear waste for example is a serious issue is either a victim of propaganda or a knowing purveyor of it”
Once you've achieved more than enough financial success, pursuing more is a disease; conscious effort required to savor success rather than endlessly chase more; financial satisfaction frees you to focus on 'get to' activities rather than 'have to' activities.
“once you have more than enough the Relentless pursuit of more is actually a disease and um and we have more than enough we have more than our wildest dreams and so at what point would we be satisfied if not uh well beyond the point that we never imagined we could uh we could ever achieve”
If you divide your time into 'get to do' versus 'have to do' activities, maximizing the get-to ratio creates better outcomes; you should proactively outsource all 'have to' activities and design life where you only do 'get to' activities where magic happens.
“if you actually take a look and assess your calendar and divide the time that you spend into those two categories I get to do that versus I have to do this if all people listening to this podcast take from this discussion is measure that number and make the get to have to ratio higher um then this podcast will be valuable for them...we proactively Outsource all the have to's and try to design a life where all we have to do is to get to's and when you do that magic happens”
Proliferation of information can be treated as either noise (creating miss risk for signals) or as opportunity (abundant raw material for curation); the mindset with which you approach technical innovation determines how innovation will approach you.
“if you approach the proliferation of information with an attitude that is like ah there's so much noise there's so much noise there's so much noise well guess what you're going to miss a signal right whereas if you approach it with there's amazing free signal out there...the proliferation of information is a godsend”
The European Union recently held a 'degrowth conference' openly advocating that humans accept lower growth rates and reduced living standards, while the EU leadership itself will not personally accept any living standard reduction.
“the EU last week they had a literally a degrowth conference where they are talking about how humans just need to accept a lot less growth um let's be very clear what they're saying which is like you and I and your children and my children should make do with less and they of course will not be making do with any less at all right”
Doomberg's response hierarchy to client inquiries directly reflects ideal client targeting: pro-tier paying subscribers receive immediate response, tier-two paying subscribers receive very quick response, and non-paying free preview users receive no response because they are not ideal clients.
“our highest paying subscribers our Pro tier send us an email they get an immediate response when our paying subscribers send us an email they get a very quick response as well when people who aren't paying us but see the free previews write us to complain we delete the email because they're not our ideal clients”
When you make a major life change and only some relationships survive, you haven't lost friends—you've identified your true friends; the number shrinking is feature, not bug, representing better quality relationships.
“last point is um uh if you think you have a hundred friends and then you make a major change in your life and only five remain you haven't lost 95 friends you've identified your true five and so um you know that that's a really important thing”
The speaker spent two decades climbing corporate ladder with impressive resume but was deeply miserable, absent from family, and living a lie; stepping off the train meant losing many peers but identifying true friends, demonstrating that professional success masks personal failure.
“I I personally spent two decades um climbing the corporate ladder and if you look at my resume you would say wow what a an amazing career you had I couldn't have been more miserable and I wasn't missing out on my kids and I you know I I would travel for weeks at a time and just assume the bases are covered at home and all that was a big giant lie I was living a big giant lie and um and I stepped off the train you know the train kept going I lost a lot of friends”
Mainstream media has misleadingly characterized potential US debt ceiling breach as creating default risk when the distinction between government shutdown (discretionary spending cessation) and default (missing debt payments) is fundamental and clearly shows government would shut down before defaulting.
“we've somehow allowed Fox News and CNN and MSNBC and mainstream media to characterize the the conversation around the potential for the U.S to default as though the very first thing we would do um when we can't borrow money is not pay the interest or principle on the debt”
Twenty years in the corporate world brought expertise but also misery; Doomberg regrets not widening their risk aperture earlier due to paranoia about being poor, driven by childhood deprivation.
“I spent two decades um climbing the corporate ladder and if you look at my resume you would say wow what a an amazing career you had I couldn't have been more miserable...I was risk minimizing to the extreme now um my children of course aren't replicating my upbringing and that is the perennial challenge of sort of uh Nouveau well-off people is how do you sort of instill upon your children a work ethic and and a motor that I had by necessity”
Doomberg published 'Gaining Steam' highlighting that three BCF/day additional Permian natural gas pipeline demand to Mexico is expected by 2030, which could conflict with LNG export demand if supply is insufficient; this raises questions about natural gas availability for multiple end-uses.
“we wrote a piece recently called gaining steam um where we highlighted where we highlighted that um a major petrochemical company is deploying an SMR at their integrated site um why does that matter you know for all the attention on electric vehicles for example um and the trillions of dollars being wasted um pursuing that Canard um the total carbon emissions of automotive and Aviation is less than the carbon emissions from the creation of industrial grade scheme”
Doomberg won't publish a piece unless they believe it's the best piece they've ever written; this maintains quality bar and ensures continued intrinsic motivation to produce excellence.
“we have a rule that we don't publish a piece unless we think this is the best piece we've ever written yeah and as long as we keep that feeling and as long as it is still a get to you know if you actually take a look and assess your calendar”
Doomberg's ideal client profile has remained unchanged since launch despite business success far beyond initial projections, because there is sufficient addressable market in that target segment to support far more revenue than the company currently generates.
“our ideal client the character sketches we wrote for them um they haven't really changed and there's enough of them in the world that we could create way more than enough revenue”
Debt ceiling politics is 'a giant nothing burger' with no material impact on energy prices; default scenarios are extremely remote and require analysis of actual financial priorities, not media speculation.
“I think it's a giant nothing burger that couldn't be more sick and tired of hearing about it”
Doomberg writes all content between 4-6 AM with cat sitting on keyboard; final four to five paragraphs are written when mind is clearest after coffee, stitching together legwork completed the prior day.
“I do all of my writing between four and six a.m and I intend to get a piece to my editor at 6am on Saturday and on Friday night I have the cut to paid written and I have everything beyond the paywall lined out and the quotes from other sources embedded in the piece and the figures done on all I have to do is wake up at 4am and write four or five paragraphs that Stitch everything together”