What this covers
The massive amounts of energy needed to fuel the growth of artificial intelligence is about to fundamentally reshape global energy markets. Maggie Lake sits down with Doomberg, author of the widely followed energy Substack to talk about his views on oil, natural gas, geopolitical tensions, and China supply chain dominance. Don't let the humorous green chicken avatar fool you, Doomberg lays down some seriously bold forecasts including the end of the OPEC cartel, the demise of the European Union, and Nato losing the Ukraine war. Recorded on Monday, October 14, 2024.
Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com Connect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me
00:00 - Intro 01:30 - Energy Markets & Geopolitics 11:08 - Is OPEC Falling Apart? 19:46 - AI, Natural Gas, and the Energy Revolution 29:32 - Semiconductors and Supply Chain Fragility 36:00 - China's Control Over Global Supply Chains 43:50 - The Cost of Sanctions and Global Power Shifts 50:50 - "Politics Never Trumps Physics" 51:08 - Future Outlook
We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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Doomberg argues that the world is oversupplied with hydrocarbons, AI demand will drive natural gas consumption faster than nuclear can be built, and the US must reshore critical manufacturing or risk losing geopolitical competition—while Europe's energy vassalage guarantees de-industrialization and eventual EU collapse.
- Oil markets are well-supplied globally despite OPEC's efforts; equilibrium price is $50-60/barrel based on US natural gas production costs
- AI computing power needs require immediate natural gas deployment as a bridge to nuclear, making gas the most valuable hydrocarbon despite recent oversupply
- US manufacturing dependence on China supply chains makes military competition with China strategically incoherent unless manufacturing is reshored
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China is willing to pollute and degrade its own environment to gain strategic competitive edges in manufacturing, and US companies competing on price against Chinese competitors operating with lower environmental standards face impossible choices, leading to outsourcing of both jobs and environmental damage.
“the Chinese we wrote a piece last year called geopolitical Warfare the Chinese are willing to pollute and degrade their own environment to gain strategic edges in the marketplace and that's just something we have to recognize and so do we want to produce magnesium in the US I was going to say do we have is trade off that we're looking at independent right we don't we just look at the cost and say well China does it cheaper”
Oil measured in ounces of gold (inflation-adjusted) is at its cheapest level since the 1980s, approximately $23-24 per barrel in real terms, despite nominal prices of $70+ per barrel, indicating profound technological progress in oil extraction and production.
“the price of oil as measured in ounces of gold is basically never been cheaper in the Bloomberg inflation adjusted index oil is something like23 $24 a barrel right now um as cheap as it's been since the 1980s this is testimony to the technology Wizardry of of the um oil and gas sector”
Scientific objectivity has been corrupted by social group pressures and funding incentives, making scientific claims particularly vulnerable to consensus enforcement, and this is worth analyzing separately from climate change debates as a methodological and institutional problem.
“we have a piece in in the pipeline tentatively titled scientist say and it's mostly about science and how it's been corrupted as opposed to sort of climate change and all those other things because scientists like all other humans are you know uh imperfect let's to put it kindly and they are susceptible to the same social group pressures and things like that”
Every solar panel globally contains forced labor polysilicon because all polysilicon processing is done in China where force labor regions' material is commingled with US and other sources, making it impossible to source 'ethical' solar panels if sourced through Chinese processing.
“the process of of transforming you know a solar grade poly into um Wafers and cells while three of the first four steps are dominated by China something like greater than 95% share so you could have a high Purity polysilicon um Factory here in the US has three of them but every single molecule produced here goes there for processing comingling with all of the material that is produced in the forc labor regions of China so every solar panel in the world um has Force labor polyic in it because they're all comingled because they're all processed in China”
Natural gas in China and long-haul truck segment has shifted toward gas-powered vehicles: in April, 30% of new long-haul trucks produced and sold in China were powered by natural gas rather than diesel, permanently destroying diesel demand in that segment.
“Bloomberg reported that in April 30% of the new Long Haul trucks prod produced and sold in China were powered by natural gas not diesel that has displaced a pretty significant amount of diesel demand”
High Purity quartz, a critical input for semiconductor manufacturing (used in quartz crucibles for silicon wafer production), is mined in only two locations worldwide that produce ~90% of the supply; Hurricane Helen flooded the Spruce Pine, North Carolina mine, creating a supply shock.
“one one area two mines produce some 90% of the quote high Purity quartz that goes into making these glass crucibles and in the aftermath of the flooding the really catastrophic flooding we should say um of of hurricane Helen um this mine was knocked out”
Energy-dependent nations ('energy vassals') cannot project military power because military capability requires industrial capacity which requires energy independence, making Europe's military autonomy impossible under current energy conditions.
“energy vassals can't project military power um they just can't um and Europe is fooling itself into thinking that if only we concentrated more of our resources in Brussels and did we got better at Central planning”
The world is currently amply supplied with primary energy across oil, natural gas, and coal despite OPEC's multi-year efforts to keep supply offline and prop up prices, with the US filling the void left by OPEC production cuts.
“it's just undeniable that right now we're kind of swimming in hydrocarbons you know the oil markets are very well supplied despite more than a couple years of opec's attempt to um keep Supply offline in an effort to prop up prices that the US has just filled in that void”
Property owners in the US have rights to minerals and what's under the ground, which is a unique structural advantage compared to other countries with large shale resources; this is why the US had a shale revolution while other countries with equivalent resources did not.
“property owners have rights to minerals and what's under the ground and those are pretty unique in the US and that's why we have the shell Revolution here and not in the other countries that have huge amounts of shell resources”
Israel is strategically vulnerable due to having only five power plants producing the vast majority of its electricity and five desalination plants producing 70-80% of its drinking water, making it susceptible to precision strikes on critical infrastructure.
“Israel is a very small country and it's very vulnerable like five power plants produce the vast majority of its electricity and five desalination plants produce some you know 70 to 80% of its drinking water that's not many targets”
Microsoft's willingness to pay premium prices for Three Mile Island power (far higher than grid electricity prices) reflects that it values energy security and independence from grid reliance more than price optimization, signaling that tech companies will pay whatever it takes to secure dedicated power.
“the price Microsoft was willing to pay far higher than the price you and I pay for electricity bills which of course isn't really a free market the government uh subsidizes so much of every aspect of of building maintaining and delivering electricity through a a world-class stable grid which is sort of considered table Stakes for a modern society U Microsoft doesn't need to tap the grid it just wants to tap the power”
Regulatory objections to energy infrastructure in the US are unlikely to slow AI compute farm buildout because state-level regulatory authority over projects that don't cross state lines, combined with private property rights to minerals, gives Texas and other states incentive to facilitate such projects.
“one of the reasons why the US is a global Energy gigap power is because if the project proposed doesn't leave the state lines or materially impact other states the states get pretty significant regulatory oversight of what's going on and so if you're going to build a pod a closed loop pod in Texas you don't even really anybody yeah I mean of course the EPA will invent ways to insert themselves into things but by and large the US has become a global energy Giga power even throughout the B Administration in spite of the politics of Washington DC because of this Nuance of of the US”
China is strategically positioned to dominate global supply chains by occupying critical nodes—both backward integrating into raw materials and forward integrating into conversion steps and processing, ensuring global dependence on Chinese supply chains.
“they're very strategic about um occupying certain critical nodes of Supply chains so if they are back integrated into the Raw materials they Dominate and if they're not back integrated in the raw materials they make sure to over invest a few steps away from those raw materials the conversion steps and put everybody else out of business so that everybody has to do business with China”
Reshoring critical manufacturing for national security reasons is not expected to be profitable in the private sector without government intervention; shareholders will resist the transition because it involves accepting lower margins for patriotic purposes.
“the friction of the transition is always the issue one can it's very easy to say where you have to go how you get there is a whole different question right because it will be expensive it will be a loss leading Enterprise potentially until you get to a point happen in the private sector when shareholders have so much say how could that even happen right”
China plays chess while the US plays checkers; China thinks in terms of years and decades (as evidenced by Xi Jinping's long-term strategic focus) while the US focuses on quarterly earnings and election cycles, giving China structural advantage in geopolitical competition.
“xishi Ping for all of his bastardly attributes is a very shrewd political operator um they think in years and decades not in quarters and that's who we're up against and the longer we ignore that's who we're up against the worse it's going to be”
If the OPEC cartel collapses quickly, oil would drop well below the $58-60 equilibrium price because oil demand is inelastic and it takes only a small excess supply to cause prices to overreact sharply downward.
“if the cartel collapses quickly you'd see oil drop well below those prices because these things are in elastic and it doesn't take much in the way of excess supply for prices to overreact uh but that's our view of the equilibrium price”
No technology on the board has experienced greater losses from betting against it than betting for its continued exponential growth, and the trend has held for many decades, suggesting that assuming society will do what it takes to stay on the exponential computing curve is the correct bet.
“I think you know money talks and nobody has more money or political power than the big tech companies and we believe that this Force this desire this this aaic need to stay on this corellian curve um you know betting against that has been a sucker trade for many decades absolutely”
Europe has been de-industrializing as a long-term consequence of its energy policies, particularly in Germany; this trend will accelerate because Europe does not produce its own energy (consuming 10% of world oil but producing 0.5%, consuming significant natural gas but producing minimal amounts).
“yes Europe was able to avoid you know the Shivering masses that witer thankfully um but what they have not been able to avoid are the long-term consequences of their energy policies which is um causing a highly predictable de-industrialization uh especially in Germany and that's only going to accelerate because they simply don't produce their own energy like um they in the piece we wrote they consume something like 10% of the world's oil but only produce a half a percent of it”
Iran's October 1st missile attack on Israel demonstrated that many missiles penetrated Israeli air defense systems and hit military targets with precision, which radically changed the strategic balance in the region by establishing a mutual assured destruction dynamic that deters Israeli escalation.
“many many missiles got through like we watched on Twitter um as what seemed like dozens of missiles got through the infamous Israeli air defense system uh and many even the Washington Post had to concede um seem to hit their military targets with some Precision um I think this changes the game”
The Western approach to geopolitics and military strategy assumes the US is the only global superpower and can unilaterally impose will on others, but this assumption is outdated and sometimes adversaries punch back, requiring humility in international trade and military strategy.
“we have a very compatitive stance towards China we have a very compatitive stance towards Russia we have a very compatitive stance against our geopolitical enemies um that is because we are still under the illusion that we're the only Global superpower and we could um swing our bad and people would be afraid of it well you know sometimes people punch back um and a little humility in international politics and geopolitics and international trade can go a long way”
The major failure of Western media is not providing honest accounting of trade-offs between policy alternatives (choose China trade vs choose China conflict) and their costs; instead media treats both as simultaneously achievable with no costs, which is the framework for failed policy decisions.
“I think that's amazing to us across all these conversations and this is the biggest failure of the western media and why I think substack is dominating is there's no discussion of trade-offs there's no honest account of choice a choice B what does each mean and what should we do collectively we we have our cake and we can eat it and it doesn't cost us anything that is the estate that is the basis that is the framework of analysis that that level of sophistication forms our policy decision making”
Three of the 15 original OPEC members have left the cartel, and OPEC Plus collaboration with Russia was not always the case—Saudi Arabia declared a price war on Russia in the early COVID pandemic, which was a key contributor to negative oil prices at the apex of the pandemic panic.
“three of the 15 members that existed in the cartel um have left um OPEC plus is basically Russia um yes Russia and OPEC are collaborating today but they didn't always uh uh you you you can go back to the early days of the co pandemic when Saudi Arabia declared a price war on Russia um which was a key contributor to the negative prices that we saw at the Apex of of the panic”
OPEC has historically been the most effective and longest-standing cartel in history, successfully keeping oil prices much higher than technology and commodity forces would otherwise permit, but is now fundamentally breaking down as members defect and cheating becomes systemic.
“OPEC should be said has it has probably been the most effective and the most long-standing cartel in the history of cartels they've done truly an amazing job of keeping the price of oil much higher than technology and aary forces of such technology developments would otherwise um have it be”
The oil market is not currently pricing in significant geopolitical risk from potential Middle East conflict; if genuine war concerns existed, oil would trade in the $90s rather than the $70s.
“our view is that the market isn't actually pricing in that much in the way of geopolitics because if they were truly concerned about a breakout of war in the Middle East um we wouldn't be in the 70s I think we would be in the 90s”
US sanctions on Russian energy in 2022 were predictable policy failures that would hurt the US more than Russia; military capability is derived from industrial capability, industrial capability is derived from access to commodities, and the US damaged itself by sanctioning Russian energy.
“mean if um this very analogous to the belief that we could somehow sanction Russian energy and that would hurt Putin more than it would hurt us I mean the this is something we wrote in the weeks after those sanctions were rolled out in 2022 and we got a lot of heat for it but we've been proven correct like um military might is a derivative of industrial might and Industrial might is a derivative of your ability to harness the necessary Commodities”
The Spruce Pine mine in North Carolina has reopened after Hurricane Helen and operators are working to get back online quickly, confirming that incentives align to restore supply rather than allow competitors to seize the market.
“of course uh as sure as night follows day um the mine is looks like it's reopened and and they're doing their very best to get things back on stream”
The economy can be modeled as pursuing the 'Kellian exponential growth' curve of computing power—meaning the economy will do whatever it takes to stay on the curve of exponential computing advancement, which necessitates a nuclear renaissance as the only viable stable baseload power source for AI infrastructure.
“we developed a mental model uh around the sort of kellian exponential growth in computing power the you know The Singularity is near type analysis um that that sort of states that the economy can be modeled as though it will always do what it takes to keep Humanity on that exponential growth of computing power curve um and if you have that as your sort of exatic foundation of analysis um it very quickly becomes evident at least it was to us back then that the first thing that would have to happen is a nuclear renaissance is needed because like um clean stable base load power set it and forget it for as many years as as you need it there really is no alternative to nuclear”
The European Union and euro project may not survive its current trajectory; Brexit was the first sign of unraveling; the EU's fundamental premise that central planning in Brussels can coordinate continent-wide economy has never worked historically when applied to the management of energy-poor regions.
“so you see so you you think brexit was the first of it you think that that you could actually see look the social preview for that piece was physics will be the undoing of the European Union and soon I mean it just it has to happen like there's no other way they shut down their nuclear power plants they bloated themselves up with intermittent wind and renewable and they've made the production and exploration of fossil fuels basically illegal what's going to happen they're going to come on they're going to collapse yes”
All primary energy sources are additive—increased nuclear capacity will not reduce natural gas consumption because all hydrocarbons are consumed together to push back against entropy and increase living standards; human economic activity is fundamentally a struggle against entropy.
“our view is all primary energy sources are additive the human endeavor is a constant unrelenting struggle against the forces of entropy you need to waste heat in order to impose order high performance computing is about the highest form of order that we can impose um we will always and forever want more All Humans everywhere want a higher standard of living so while nuclear is spooling up which is why we call the piece Bridge burning um the bridge to nuclear will be the burning of natural gas and then once all that nuclear comes online we'll still burn more natural gas because all primary energy sources are additives”
Hurricane season severity and attribution to climate change has been subject to scientific distortion; the statistical reality is that hurricane activity has been stable for a long time but interpretation of events has changed, reflecting social pressure on scientists rather than actual climate change.
“sort of if you take it step back statistically this has been going on for a very long time and what's changed is just our interpretation of it so we have a piece in in the pipeline tentatively titled scientist say and it's mostly about science and how it's been corrupted as opposed to sort of climate change and all those other things because scientists like all other humans are you know uh imperfect let's to put it kindly and they are susceptible to the same social group pressures”
Politics never trumps physics—physical constraints (energy availability, thermodynamics, material scarcity) will override political preferences and policy, making political solutions irrelevant when they conflict with physical limits.
“politics never trumps physics”
Nuclear plants cannot be brought online fast enough to meet AI compute demands, but natural gas turbines can be deployed very quickly, and the only technology both relatively clean and abundant that can scale on the timeline needed is natural gas, making it the inevitable bridge fuel until nuclear capacity is available.
“there's one critical flaw with nuclear as Savior for AI power needs which is speed you can't bring these plants on as fast as the market needs it but the only technology on the board that is both relatively clean burning relatively abundant relatively cheap and can be brought online very quickly are natural gas powered turbines”
The equilibrium price of oil can be calculated by starting with the break-even price of US natural gas production (approximately $2.60 per million BTU for dry gas producers), adding $6 per million BTU for liquefaction and shipping to reach $10/MMBtu landed LNG, then multiplying by 6 (energy equivalence) to get $58-60/barrel as the long-run equilibrium.
“the break even price which is different than the price we're about to quote is about 260 a million btu U which is pretty amazing by the way that the break even price of natural gas in the US is about you know 15 bucks a barrel if that uh oil energy equivalent um we we Peg it at around $4 so at $4 a million btu the eqs of the world are recouping all their costs and uh earning a return for their for the equity stack and their Capital table if you tack on $6 a million btu for Li uh you know liquification and shipping that means landed LG at $10 a million btu is is kind of the equilibrium price for the cheapest hydrocarbon on the board”
The conflict between shareholder interests (quarterly profits, cost minimization) and national security interests (reshoring, labor investment) is the central ideological battlefield; currently Wall Street dominates DoD, but this could reverse if national security imperatives become urgent enough.
“The Wall Street banks will oppose this and the sort of lobbyists and DC who have um earned a great living grafting off of these banks will oppose this the big question is will the dod Prevail over such lobbying we shall see but that's the war that's going on right now”
Despite catastrophic predictions about the quartz supply shock disabling semiconductor manufacturing, the crisis is a 'nothing burger' because the semiconductor industry is worth ~$600 billion/year while high purity quartz is worth only ~$1 billion/year, so even a 10x price increase would go unnoticed and immediately incentivize new supply from China.
“High Purity courts yes it's easy to mine I mean it it's easier to just take the stuff that's mined today but as we said in the piece you know there's a vast Chasm between the way things are done and the way things must be done and the semiconductor industry is conservatively valued at 600 billion a year and high Purity quarts the stuff that's mined out in North Carolina by our best guess is worth about a billion a year um if the prices of that stuff went up tenfold two things would happen hardly anyone would notice and then a whole buch of new Supply would come online very quickly uh specifically in China”
The US cannot credibly threaten military conflict with China while remaining dependent on Chinese supply chains for critical manufacturing inputs; attempting to do so is logically incoherent because China would simply cut off critical supplies in any conflict.
“our military-industrial complex is is decidedly dependent on China for the front end of virtually everything we do which makes it interesting that we're pondering starting yet another front um of military conflict against China over Taiwan um as though they will continue to supply us with these materials in the event of open hostilities we're lucky that they're still supplying them to us today”
A significant US dollar devaluation is needed to make US manufacturing competitive against China, but no candidate is discussing this; this currency reset is an unspoken but natural consequence of proposed trade and geopolitical policy.
“there's an urgent need for the US to onshore reshore for Shore it's hard to see how that happens with the US dollar as strong as it is I think a significant devaluation is needed to make us manufactur competitive again that's not something any candidate is talking about but as is a natural and sort of EX dematic consequence of what Trump is saying that's for sure um and that will be very painful it might be necessary um it might be the way in which we get out of our debt spiral”
Most analysts and policy makers dramatically underestimate the importance of natural gas to the US economy because it is used for home heating, factory co-generation (electricity and heat), chemical/cement/steel production, and increasingly transportation, making it central to avoiding recession.
“we've been able to avoid a recession in large part because people radically underestimate the importance of natural gas to our economy we heat our homes with it we run our factories with it Long Haul truckers are beginning to power their vehicles with it um this dir Che we have a lot of it if a shortage of energy and explos explosive prices are sure fire signs of an imminent recession then clearly an abundance of dirt cheap hydrocarbons is is uh insulation against it”
The oil-to-gas ratio could trade as low as 6 (based on energy equivalence) or even below, meaning natural gas—which was being given away for free months ago—could become the most valuable hydrocarbon on the board, driven by AI datacenter demand.
“in the piece we speculated that this oil to gas ratio you know where we said like the numbers should be six based on energy in the US as recently as a few months ago it was trading for 45 which means we literally couldn't give away gas we suspect it might trade as low as six again and maybe even below it like it might be that the molecule we couldn't give away a few months ago will be the most valuable one on the board um because of this one factor and which is speed”
Tech companies will colocate AI datacenters in countries with abundant natural gas (Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) to intercept natural gas before liquefaction and shipping, creating closed-loop pods where natural gas enters and data exits, avoiding transmission losses from pipelines and electrical grids.
“one of the sort of fallouts from that assumption is that boy these countries that are producing a ton of natural gas chilling it and putting it on boats wouldn't it make sense for the big tech companies to just intercept that molecule before you do all of that hoop jumping and of course we're seeing in Malaysia and in Qatar and Saudi Arabia which are sitting on mountains of natural gas the big tech companies are collocating to where the fuel is”
Environmental organizations and climate advocacy groups that receive significant funding from tech companies will shift their positions to support both nuclear power and natural gas because the financial pressure from those companies (who need dense energy) will override ideological opposition to fossil fuels.
“the um big environmental movements who draw so much of their funding from those very same companies are suddenly going to get the message that not only is nuclear acceptable but so is uh natural gas because otherwise we'd just be burning coal wink wink um I think you know money talks and nobody has more money or political power than the big tech companies”
The NATO response to losing the war in Ukraine is a critical risk that Doomberg is investigating; the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines and responsibility for that act may carry long-term geopolitical consequences.
“one that's a little off the beaten path a bit and one that we've been worried about a lot is how will NATO respond to losing the war in Ukraine um that's a key risk and and one of the um early things that we're looking at is ultimately going back to and pondering the U destruction of the nordstream pipelines and who was really responsible for that and what the long-term consequence of that act might be”
Humans have been heating and processing sand for centuries to millennia; if high-purity quartz supply from North Carolina were permanently lost, alternatives would be found through technology and substitution because the incentives are enormous—the mine owners have the most motivation to prevent this from happening since they benefit from their monopoly position.
“we're talking about sand and humans have been heating up and otherwise tinkering with sand for centuries if not thousands of years um if we suddenly lost permanently access to these mines in North Carolina we'd find a way to figure it out because we have to stay on this cruell and curve as we talked about earlier and the most motivated people to stop this from happening are the owners of those mines because they're sitting on a nice little Monopoly charging um just enough to keep everybody happy but making a very handsome profit for themselves”
A procurement manager at a major green-focused energy company rejected Doomberg's product because it couldn't meet price requirements set by Chinese competitors who had stolen their RFP and faced no environmental standards, despite the company's public environmental commitments.
“I remember talking to the procurement manager of a very high-profile BDC company that you would know that I won't name for you know obvious reasons that had very glitzy booths at the various cop meetings at the United Nations for global warming this and sustainability that and what I pointed out to this person that no we couldn't meet the the RFP that China had given them because uh they stole our RP and they don't have anywhere near the same environmental standards we have um his response to me was well that's something for the courts to figure out um I have this cheap Bid And if you can't meet it you're going to lose the business and then we lost the business”
Doomberg looks for 'off the wall deeper meaning things' rather than obvious narratives, trying to anticipate news and events 6-8 months in advance by thinking about second-order consequences that are not yet visible.
“we're always looking for off thewall deeper meaning things to speculate about and write about which I think is a characteristic of our work”
The availability and price of cheap natural gas at the end of last year was a key reason for Doomberg's relatively controversial call that there would be no recession in the US before the election, because cheap hydrocarbons and fiscal stimulus are incompatible with recession conditions.
“the abundance and price of natural gas at the end of last year was a key reason why we made a relatively controversial call at the time that there would be no recession in the US before the election a piece that we wrote called slick Landing as opposed to sort of hard Landing or soft Landing um when you have um when you're swimming in a sea of cheap hydrocarbons and you have a sophisticated manufacturing sector that is relying on natural gas for co-generation I.E electricity and heat chemicals cement steel and on top of that you have fiscal uh stimulus like you've never seen before coming out of Wasington those aren't the ingredients that bake a recession cake”
Longshore worker strikes on the East Coast signal emerging political recognition that labor should have more power relative to capital in strategically important sectors; this represents a shift from the neoliberal consensus that capital interests dominate.
“we watch with great interest the long shorman strike on the East Coast um we're beginning to see signs that maybe profit is one input into National strategy right um The Wall Street banks will oppose this and the sort of lobbyists and DC who have um earned a great living grafting off of these banks will oppose this the big question is will the dod Prevail over such lobbying”
US and Western policy toward China is 'happy talk' without serious solutions; politicians speak of toughness while ignoring how dependent the US manufacturing base is on Chinese supply chains, making the rhetoric unserious.
“I think it's it's it's not the stuff of serious people who've studied the issue carefully and have come up with an approp Roi solution to the dilemma”
Russia's invasion of Ukraine reflected military escalation that China was simultaneously using as cover for military exercises around Taiwan, creating a strategic dilemma where US military resources are stretched across multiple theaters.
“I see that they were engaged in some pretty provocative military exercises around Taiwan this weekend which I'm sure you saw just coincidentally as things in the midle E are heating up and things on the battlefield in Ukraine seem to be not going our way gee what an opportunistic time to be to be pulling such things”
If the DOD ensures that the US's super-abundance of cheap hydrocarbons is not wasted, and because of the US's advantageous position in AI, the US will be able to continue its lead in AI for national security reasons if nothing else, and Lord knows the US doesn't have a lead in much else.
“the big tech companies are going to use it AI as you said for national security reasons if nothing else the dod is going to make sure that this super abundance of cheap hydrocarbons that we have in the US is not going to be uh wasted and we're going to continue our lead in AI because Lord knows we don't have a lead in much else”
Natural gas is an exceptionally clean-burning, efficient fuel suitable for home heating, cooking, and industrial use, and the average person in northern US homes powered by natural gas doesn't question the fuel source because it's so reliable and clean.
“natural gas is an amazing fuel um yes it's hard to handle but other than that it's spectacular look I'm not sure how you're home is powered but my home is powered by natural gas um we cook with natural gas in an open flame in our kitchen and rarely turn on the ventilation you wouldn't fire up the barbecue in your living room which is the equivalent of burning coal indoors um but with natural gas it's so clean burning and so efficient and so useful that basically many people in the northern part of the US power their homes with it um and don't even give it a second thought”