10 New Insights in Climate Science | #COP26 | Climate action
What this covers
Overview by Professor Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Co-Chair, Advisory Committee of Future Earth, and Co-Chair of the Earth League. The 10 New Insights in Climate Science:
1. Stabilizing at 1.5°C warming is still possible, but immediate and drastic global action is required 2. Rapid growth in methane and nitrous oxide emissions put us on track for 2.7°C warming 3. Megafires – climate change forces fire extremes to reach new dimensions with extreme impacts 4. Climate tipping elements incur high-impact risks 5. Global climate action must be just 6. Supporting household behaviour changes is a crucial but often overlooked opportunity for climate action 7. Political challenges impede the effectiveness of carbon pricing 8. Nature-based solutions are critical for the pathway to Paris – but look at the fine print 9. Building resilience of marine ecosystems is achievable by climate-adapted conservation and management, and global stewardship 10. Costs of climate change mitigation can be justified by the multiple immediate benefits to the health of humans and nature
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The UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow, United Kingdom is a crucial opportunity to achieve pivotal, transformational change in global climate policy and action. It is a credibility test for global efforts to address climate change and it is where Parties must make considerable progress to reach consensus on issues they have been discussing for several years. COP 26 comes against the background of widespread, rapid and intensifying climate change impacts, which are already impacting every region on Earth. Also, COP 26 comes against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the urgent need to build back better for present future generations to ensure a safe future.
The UNFCCC secretariat (UN Climate Change) is the United Nations entity tasked with supporting the global response to the threat of climate change. UNFCCC stands for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Convention has near universal membership (197 Parties) and is the parent treaty of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The main aim of the Paris Agreement is to keep the global average temperature rise this century as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The UNFCCC is also the parent treaty of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The ultimate objective of all three agreements under the UNFCCC is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system, in a time frame which allows ecosystems to adapt naturally and enables sustainable development.
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Rockström presents 10 scientific insights for climate negotiators showing that 1.5°C is still achievable but requires unprecedented emissions reductions, systemic decarbonization beyond energy, behavioral change, and accounting for cascading climate tipping points and health costs.
- 1.5°C requires 4 gigatons CO2 reduction per year (doubling the linear pathway) with two-thirds success probability
- Non-CO2 gases, behavioral change, and nature-based solutions are scientifically necessary alongside energy decarbonization
- Tipping point cascades (ice sheets → ocean circulation → monsoons → Amazon) now lie within 1.5-2°C range with unknown interaction effects
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Air pollutants are cooling the planet, creating a paradox where one environmental problem (air pollution) is camouflaging another environmental crisis (global warming), masking the true extent of anthropogenic warming.
“air pollutants are actually cooling the planets so we have a paradox and a very dramatic one which is that one environmental problem air pollutants are camouflaging another environmental crisis the global warming crisis and this is well established scientifically”
There is no safe landing to deliver the Paris Agreement by decarbonizing only the global energy system; non-CO2 gases (methane and nitrous oxide) must be reduced at the same pace as carbon dioxide to have a chance of delivering the Paris Agreement.
“there is no safe landing to deliver the paris agreement only by decarbonizing the global energy system carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide the non-co2 gases are worsening global warming the climate models show clearly that we need to follow the same pace of reductions as carbon dioxide to have a chance of delivering the paris agreement”
Nature-based solutions are absolutely fundamental to have a chance of delivering the Paris Agreement; however, the challenge is to ensure robust and resilient solutions rather than fool ourselves with offsetting mechanisms that have already been factored into the climate models that give us the remaining carbon budget.
“nature-based solutions are absolutely fundamental to have a chance of delivering the paris agreement the challenge though is to have robust resilient nature-based solutions and not to fool ourselves in investing in offsetting mechanisms that have already been factored into the climate models that give us a carbon budget”
We need a transition not only into decarbonization of energy systems through technologies but also need 1.5 degrees Celsius lifestyles; status quo consumption patterns and growth will not take us to the Paris range—this requires both equity and behavioral and lifestyle change.
“we need to have a transition not only into decarbonization of the energy systems in terms of technologies but we also need 1.5 degrees celsius lifestyles status quo in consumption patterns and growth will not take us to the paris range this is about equity but it's also about lifestyle change and behavioral change”
We need to correct the market economic failure in factoring in the true cost of climate damage into economic models, with the primary entry point being health: over 7 million people per year are prematurely losing their lives because of air pollutants, which must be fully factored into the costing of climate risk.
“we need to correct the market economic failure in factoring in the true cost of climate damage and that the number one entry point there is really about health that we have today over seven million people per year being prematurely losing their lives because of air pollutants which is one of the the factors that we need to now fully factor into the costing of our risky journey on climate change”
The ocean is the resilient thermostat of the planet both biologically and physically, with substantial scientific evidence showing multiple threats to ocean health, and investing in 30 percent targets for marine protected areas is a key measure to reduce these threats.
“the ocean is the resilient thermostat of the planet biologically and physically we have so much science today showing the threats to the ocean and we'll come back to that in the discussion here but this is something that will be also a determinant factor and investing in 30 percent targets for marine protected areas we believe is one measure to reduce these threats”
From an earth system science perspective, 1.5 degrees Celsius is still a possible landing zone that can still be achieved, but requires a doubling of carbon dioxide reduction pace from 2 gigatons per year (linear, 5% annually) to 4 gigatons per year to achieve a two-thirds chance of success, against current global emissions of 42 gigatons per year.
“we land in the conclusion that 1.5 degrees celsius is still a possible landing zone we can still achieve it the question is how will we do that from a feasibility perspective and that an overshoot is likely it translates to a two gigaton two billion tons of carbon dioxide per year reduction pace in a linear level that's five percent per year but if you want to have a two-thirds chance of success it requires a doubling to 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year and we emit today 42 gigatons or billion tons of carbon dioxide per year”
The world has entered the age of intensified mega fires, which cause enhanced climate positive feedbacks that act as a warming amplifier, with accelerated forest fire outbreaks covering increasing areas and accentuated by human-caused global warming.
“we've entered the age of intensified mega fires this is also causing apart from social impacts on humans enhanced climate positive feedbacks which is a warming amplifier and here you have the 2019-2020 mapping of the accelerated forest fire outbreaks which are now covering more and more area and caused by human global warming or or accentuated by human global warming”
Tipping elements are a real risk that cannot be ruled out; the IPCC scientific assessment shows that as scientific advances have progressed, the estimated global mean temperature at which tipping point risk occurs has dropped, with tipping point risk now assessed to lie between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius with low probability but high impact events.
“tipping elements are real it's a real risk that we cannot rule out the ipcc is clear here here you see the trajectory in terms of the risk assessments from science from the third assessment of the ipcc all the way till today what you see here is that the more scientific advances the lower in global mean temperature is the scientific assessment of the risk of crossing tipping points and that the tipping point risk today is down between 1.5 and 2 degrees celsius with low probability high impact events”
Carbon pricing is scientifically shown to accelerate the scale of transition; 61 countries have adopted a price on carbon, but it currently covers only 22 percent of global emissions and is inefficiently set at too low a level, with the European Union as the first successful regional example where carbon pricing is starting to work at over 60 euros per ton.
“we have so much scientific evidence today that carbon pricing can accelerate the scale of transition 61 countries in the world have adopted a price on carbon this is however it's only covering 22 percent of global emissions are covered by carbon price and so far the carbon price is not efficient because it's set at a too low level but the european union is the first example in the world of a region where the carbon pricing system is starting to work because it's starting to come up to scientific parity in the level of pricing at over 60 euros per ton of carbon dioxide”
Beyond individual tipping points, the scientific frontier shows risk of cascading interactions between tipping element systems where melting of the Greenland ice sheet releases cold fresh water slowing North Atlantic heat circulation, impacting monsoon patterns over the Amazon causing increased droughts and forest fires, which locks warm water in the southern ocean accelerating West Antarctic ice shelf melting.
“we are not only seeing the risk of crossing tipping points but it's also that we are seeing the risk of interactions so-called cascades between tipping element systems and you see here for example when the green ice sheet melts fast releasing cold fresh water in the north atlantic slowing down the overturning of heat in the north atlantic impacting on the monsoon over the amazon which can explain higher degree of droughts and forest fires in the amazon rainforest which in turn also locks in warm water in the southern ocean accelerating potentially the melting of the west antarctic ice shelf”
To stay within the global carbon budget in a fair way, the richest one percent must reduce emissions by a factor of 30 while the poorest 50 percent in the world can actually increase emissions by a factor of three.
“the richest one percent must reduce emissions by a factor 30 while the poorest 50 percent in the world can actually increase emissions by a factor three for the world to stay within the global carbon budget in a fair way”
The remaining carbon budget that allows for net zero world economy by 2050 exists only because we assume nature will continue to be a net carbon sink, so nature-based solutions cannot be used to slow down the pace of emission reductions from fossil fuel emissions.
“the only reason why we have a remaining carbon budget that allows us to reduce emissions according to what i mentioned earlier of a net zero world economy by 2050 is that we assume that nature will continue to be a net carbon sink so we need nature-based solutions but we cannot use them to slow down the pace of emission reductions from fossil fuel emissions”
The purpose of this scientific report is to hand over 10 new insights that every climate negotiator must have in their back pocket to be an effective negotiator at any COP meeting, particularly COP26 in Glasgow.
“the purpose of this is from the scientific community to hand over the 10 new insights that we believe every climate negotiator must have in his or her back pocket to be an effective negotiator at any cop meeting and certainly here in glasgow”