Lobo Tiggre: Recession Is Here – Why Gold & Uranium Are Your Best Bets

Gold's rally is NOT fully priced in because the underlying bullish catalysts (recession, rate cuts, money printing) are only now beginning, meaning more upside remains ahead.

“gold pulled a hockey stick before that happened so I had a lot of people telling me earlier this year oh you're such a genius you know Gold's up already well yeah but not for the reasons that I said and the reason why I'm bringing this up is because another push back might be well gee Lobo Gold's up already you know has it priced in what you're talking about and so my answer is no”

The average lag between the start of Federal Reserve policy tightening and the onset of recession in the United States is approximately 27 months, and applying this lag to the current tightening cycle that began in 2022 would place the recession onset in July 2024, which aligns with when cracks in the labor market became undeniable.

“the average length of time between the beginning of a policy tightening cycle and recession in the United States is around 27 months and depending on whose numbers but it's around 27 months so if you apply that to this time around that would have been the average length of time right would have been in July and lo and behold that's when the cracks in the labor market really started becoming undeniable”

Kazatomprom is the world's largest uranium producer and also the lowest-cost producer, so their production decisions have huge impact on uranium pricing, similar to how Nvidia dominates the AI space; when Kazatomprom announced a 20% voluntary production cut years ago it helped support prices, and they influence the global uranium supply-demand balance significantly.

“it's kind of interesting that the market at least this time seems to have got it more right than last time we've had two bits of news of kazad prom recently and it's important to understand that they're not just the world's largest producer they're also the world's lowest cost producer so if your biggest source of Supply is the one really setting the prices or are able to undercut all the competition that it's sort of like you know as Nvidia is to AI you can't ignore Nvidia and whatever they do has a huge impact on that space it's it's like that with kazum prom and uranium”

Congress has already established that 'no fault of their own' economic hardship is sufficient justification to send substantial direct stimulus payments to consumers (e.g., COVID relief), and a recession qualifies as 'no fault of their own,' so the precedent exists for rapid helicopter money deployment if the economy deteriorates.

“they've already established no fault of their own as sufficient cost to send people not just a you know a boo boo kiss you know a few hundred bucks or something but thousands and thousands of dollars you know material money not to the banking system but direct to Consumers because it's no fault of their own and obviously a recession is no fault of their own right so the precedent is there”

Major gold mining companies (Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle) mismanaged the previous gold bull cycle from 2001-2011 when gold went up sevenfold; despite commodity appreciation, these companies' free cash flow went negative, causing investors to rationally avoid the stocks even though the underlying metal was soaring.

“a lot of the companies really mismanaged the last big search we had in Gold uh my friend Rick R I'm sure you've interviewed him before on Wealthy on numerous times he likes to point out that in the last big cycle from 2001 to 2011 you had gold go up Sevenfold and you had the you know the major producers as a group um deliver negatively in terms of you know actual free cash flow you you never mind you massaging the bottom line but in terms of cash flow you know where the rubber really hits the road to have your your the commodity your business is based on go up Sevenfold while your cash goes negative and I did the math on this I have a chart somewhere on my website on this uh you know they really did manage to lose more money at the same time”

Kazatomprom recently announced they will increase uranium production by only 5% in 2024, but this is actually a 50% reduction from their original plan (which was 10% increase); this seems bearish on the surface but is actually less bad than expected, and more recently they announced 12% growth for 2025 while petitioning to lower their permitted production levels due to ongoing supply chain constraints (sulfuric acid, construction delays).

“they were supposed to increase 10% so that 5% increase is actually a 50% decrease from what they were going to do and but somehow markets got it wrong or or panicked or whatever and people sold off on that day they put out that news there were double digit drops in numerous uranium stocks now just a few days ago as you and I record this we had the new announcement where they announced their uh results and their forward guidance for 2025 they're now saying that they are going to continue increasing they expect to be plus 12% uh in 2025 but remember they were supposed that's up for minus 20 right so they're still guiding for less of an increase than they had originally planned not only that they put in the news that they are petitioning to the government to move the gold poost those subsoil use agreements I talked about the permitted levels they're basically saying that they're problems Supply enough sulfuric acid which they use to mine the uranium out of the ground and their construction delays and things are so protracted that they want to change the amount they're permitted to produce”

Markets are sometimes inefficient and irrational, oscillating between overbought and oversold conditions; savvy speculators exploit these inefficiencies by buying oversold assets that are still necessary and selling overbought assets, which is the primary way disciplined speculators make money.

“I really don't subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis they get overbought and oversold all the time that's why we even have those terms and that's actually the main way Savvy Speculator makes his or her money you look at something oversold that's still necessary and you buy because low prices cure low prices you look at something that's overbought you can go short because you know overpriced is overpriced and high prices cure high prices”

GDP as an economic metric is problematic because its inputs are methodologically questionable, and the government is reporting on itself ('the fox reporting on the health of the chickens'), so reliance on GDP figures should be tempered; looking at actual reality through multiple data points is preferable to trusting government statistics.

“as a person of an Austrian bent if you follow my meaning I think the GDP is a is a silly number anyway the inputs in there are methodologically questionable anyway and then on top of that you've got the fox reporting on the health of the chickens I.E the government reporting on itself”

The US economy is in recession now, not heading toward one—leading economic indicators including the Sahm Rule and the 'gunlock indicator' (a three-year unemployment average with an 80-year perfect recession prediction track record) are signaling recession currently, and this is not political criticism but data-driven analysis.

“these indicators are saying we are in recession now so this isn't just tinfoil hat Lobos you know wanting to be critical of the Biden Administration or something like that I'm saying the data is there for anybody that wants to see it”

Triple-digit uranium prices are likely to be 'normal' going forward once current corrections settle, and this is Lobo's medium to long-term price expectation, though he avoids naming a specific target.

“but that's not the point is where we're at now it's it's the curve it's accelerating and okay if you look at the main number that people look at it was you know below 3.5 now it's over 4.3 that's a huge increase and it's accelerating and that's why we get the Sahm Rule and the gunlock indicator these things telling us that we're in recession that accelerating breakdown in the labor market”

China made a major strategic error with its rigid COVID-19 lockdowns: the lockdowns were so prolonged and intense that they traumatized the population, and when restrictions were lifted, people remained too fearful to resume normal economic activity, undermining the recovery and contributing to China's real estate and broader economic problems.

“you know it was a mistake it and and they kept it going for so long they really traumatized their people so now we we we do an about face we open up the country and guess what people still don't want to go out you've terrorized them I mean you you've scared them they don't they're afraid of each other they want to go to restaurants right it takes a long time for people to unlearn that kind of painful lesson and then you know that set off the the real estate problems that they have”

The NASDAQ topped in March 2000 and took about 10 years to bottom and resume uptrend, during which gold bottomed in 2000 and moved up for 10 years, creating a parallel bull cycle; the current gold bull market may resemble this pattern—potentially a long-term structural uptrend lasting years.

“if you go back to the last cycle uh and you look at the NASDAQ okay it topped out in March of 2000 took about 10 years before it bottomed and started moving up again gold at the same time bottomed in 2000 and then it started moving up for about 10 years do you think we're in that same sort of cycle in other words the move we're seeing in gold right now it's just beginning”

The global economy is currently in recession, and the US has been experiencing a 'rolling recession' that was masked by the appearance of labor market strength, but that mask is now coming off as the final pillar—the consumer/labor market—is beginning to give way.

“I have been saying in my writing that the global economy is in recession the US has been in this rolling a sort of masked recession because of labor market looking good looking good not necessarily being good but looking good and that when that final pillar of the US Labor or consumer gave way that's when we'd likely see the fireworks going and it seems to me that we're at that threshold right now”

Major consumer-facing companies (Amazon, Nike, McDonald's, Starbucks) reported in Q2 earnings that consumers are experiencing economic duress, with consumers cutting back on discretionary spending (e.g., fewer purchases of $5 Happy Meals), confirming that Main Street is suffering.

“now that Q2 is or most companies have reported the Q2 numbers the one underlying theme that we saw from company after company was that the consumer is feeling economic duress and we saw it from Amazon Nike McDonald's starbcks I mean if people aren't paying five bucks for a Happy Meal at McDonald's you know they're feeling some pain”

Government stimulus spending may paradoxically trigger fear-based consumer behavior (debt payoff, saving, gold purchases, hoarding) rather than spending if the economic news is dire enough, potentially neutering the intended stimulus effect.

“if the news is scary enough that and and then the powers that be pivot and they start sending people money you know that very thing could actually scare people instead of making people go out and spend because now they got more free money in the in the mailbox it could have people saying holy beep you know something is really wrong here and you could actually see people pay off credit cards again save again buy gold gee what a concept you know you could see a fear reaction sparked by the very same thing that they hope will just you know open them the party and get the spending going again”

People are often ignorant of data and trends that should be obvious because they work within institutional constraints and models, which prevents them from seeing what a contrarian investor with an open mind can recognize.

“You'd think all these big firms on Wall Street buildings full of millions and millions of dollars a computer and you know the FED has hundreds of phds running around You'd think all these people would would see these things that are obvious um but they but they work within constraints of models so you dear audience if you have a contrarian mindset you don't have to be obstinately doing the opposite of whatever everybody else does sometimes the masses are right um but you have to be willing to think outside the box think differently and if you can do that you can compete with Wall Street”

Gold does not directly correlate with inflation as measured by CPI, but rather gold leads inflation—gold spiked in 2020, and inflation did not follow until 2022, creating the appearance of no correlation when in fact gold was signaling future inflation.

“inflation if you directly correlate inflation and gold C by CPI it actually has a very low correlation in my view though that this is because gold leads inflation so gold spikes in 2020 the inflation doesn't kick in until 2022 and it looks like there's no correlation but gold was telling you what's coming”

Oil prices at $70-80 per barrel are 'dirt cheap' despite an active war in the Middle East; historically high oil prices would be expected given geopolitical disruption, but current prices reflect weak global demand, making commodity price weakness a powerful bearish indicator for global economic health.

“if you had said that was going to happen to somebody you know three years ago I'm sure that if you pulled you know whoever Bloomberg pulls...but you know if you had pulled people three years ago that that there would be a major blow up in the Middle East Israel at War um you know everybody would have been talking triple digit oil prices so you may say oh 70s 80s you know that's still pretty high well okay yes historically it's pretty high adjusted for inflation not so high but with War a hot war in the Middle East that's actually dirt cheap oil in my view so I I see that as a very bearish indicator for Global demand”

The official unemployment rate of 4.3% significantly understates true unemployment; a reasonable base case is to double the reported number, or alternatively use the U6 unemployment measure (the government's own former methodology) which currently stands above 7%, making the unemployment situation much more alarming than headline figures suggest.

“I think that it is actually reason able to look at whatever unemployment numbers the government reports and double them uh as a sort of a base case but you don't even have to do that just look at the U6 number and Peter Schiff does a good job my fellow Puerto Rican down here of explaining that U6 is what the unemployment numbers used to be until they decided to adjust them right so so this isn't some madeup number”

The 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) is 'a thing of the past' and can no longer beat the market or stay ahead of inflation; investors now need alternative assets such as real estate, precious metals, and thematic investments like nuclear energy and uranium to augment portfolio returns.

“well I think you would agree with me when I say the 60/40 portfolio is a thing of the past and in order to beat the market and stay ahead of inflation you need alternative assets such as real estate precious metals and thematic Investments such as nuclear energy and uranium”

Manufacturing in the United States has been in recession for a long time, and Dr. Copper (copper prices as a leading economic indicator) signals economic weakness, both contradicting the optimistic headline economic data.

“Dr copper says otherwise the cracks in the employment Market say otherwise the uh manufacturing recession that the United States has been in for a long time say otherwise”

Other major central banks (ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada) have cut rates earlier than the Fed because the global economy has been in more obvious trouble than the US, with Germany and the EU showing negative GDP growth, while China's growth has decelerated to anemic levels relative to its historical standards.

“the global economy has been much more obviously in trouble than the US economy and I talked about some of these rolling recession indicators in the us but as long as the consumer kept spending because people had jobs and the labor market looked good there was an argument for American exceptionalism uh you know not so much in the EU or Germany when your gdps go negative and all these other indicators are very bearish uh China has also in a way been a bright spot you know they can still pull off four or 5% GDP growth you know never mind that that's way down from what it used to be”

Lobo is Austrian school in economic philosophy, skeptical of GDP as a measure (due to methodological issues and government self-reporting bias), and prefers looking at 'real world' indicators rather than aggregate statistics.

“as a person of an Austrian bent if you follow my meaning I think the GDP is a is a silly number anyway the inputs in there are methodologically questionable anyway and then on top of that you've got the fox reporting on the health of the chickens I.E the government reporting on itself so I take all of that with a grain of salt and I just try to look at the reality you know I I don't want to be the weatherman just you know saying what's happening based on my model I want to actually look out the window at the real world and maybe”

There is a 5+ year gap between current supply coming online and the next wave of uranium projects, because the projects currently in the pipeline are not yet permitted—they cannot break ground even if fully funded; this supply gap, combined with escalating demand (China building 150 reactors by 2035), supports sustained high uranium prices over years.

“but that's just the you know the here and now you know we we will see more Supply now I don't think it'll be enough I don't think all of it will come online as advertised I think we'll see fewer pounds come to Market this year than people are expecting but then what the next projects you know you got to permit them you got to build them between what's happening now and the next wave of Supply I think we're looking at 5 years plus there's this huge gap of you know the next ones in line in the pipeline they're they're they're not even started you know there are big high-grade deposits known in Canada I'm not going to name any more names because I don't want to act like I'm giving out stock tips here and by the way none of the companies that I've mentioned am I recommending I'm just mentioning large players because they Define the space um but you look at what's coming next they're not even permitted right they couldn't have shovels hit dirt tomorrow if they had the money right they're not permanent so low prices cure low prices but as soon as the current you know low low hanging fruit is picked there's nothing or almost nothing for a long time so yeah I I think we're looking at triple digit prices”

Many investors lump uranium into the broader 'energy sector' (a Bloomberg classification artifact), which has negative correlation with recessions; thus when investors hear 'recession outlook,' they automatically sell energy stocks including uranium, not realizing uranium (nuclear baseload) behaves differently from oil.

“stocks are stocks so if you have concerns about the economy and most people jump you know lump the so-called energy sector when people talk about the energy sector there's a lot of different things that go in there that are very you know not and it's a very fractured Market I actually think that Bloomberg has these different categories that they break the S&P 500 into and so they actually have a specific definition when they say the energy sector they mean a group of stocks grouped together on a Bloomberg terminal and that expression the energy sector has spread from there and people use it all the time and like like it means something outside in the bigger world but it really doesn't it's just a Bloomberg artifact but you can use that artifact and it correlates negatively with the economy right the energy sector goes down if you're bearish on the economy so if you see what I'm seeing and you say oh well you know uranium that powers nuclear energy the energy sector is the Outlook is bearish if we're if we're looking at recession so they just don't know they haven't looked at the charts that I have you know ignorance unfortunately is not that uncommon”

Investors, including gold bugs themselves, have been persistently bearish on gold even as it rises (fear of 'smackdowns' or manipulation), and mainstream investors dismiss gold as a 'pet rock' with no intrinsic value; this creates an extraordinary opportunity because gold has already reached nominal all-time highs yet is not fully believed in, and gold stocks trade at depressed valuations despite operational improvements.

“the investors have been so bearish even gold bugs you know every time gold goes up they say oh it's going to get crashed you know the the smackdown team's going to come knock it back or the manipulators or whatever it is there's you know it's almost like a you know a battered spouse it just doesn't want to admit that you know there's any change there the gold bugs if the gold bugs themselves are bearish every time gold goes up or fearful every time gold goes up what about the mainstream they're not gold bugs they don't believe it's money so the there's been this really enduring negativity about gold stocks uh even though we had nominal all-time high after all-time high in the gold dollar exchange rate that's creating a terrific opportunity”

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is reluctant to cut rates because he wants to avoid being remembered as Arthur Burns (who presided over the 1970s stagflation) and instead wants to emulate Paul Volcker (who aggressively fought inflation); fear of repeating the 'transitory inflation' mistake makes him cautious about easing policy too soon.

“Powell himself has tried to channel vulker he doesn't want to be the next Arthur Burns if anything you know he'd rather be the next vulker than the next Burns I think most of your audience probably knows what I mean by that but basically they didn't want to ease up on the brakes too soon and then have inflation take off again and look like they they they got it wrong you know it was bad enough that the Good Ship transitory as poell now jokes about um was a popular but misdirected ship that's bad enough they made a mistake to make another mistake would really you know make them look like idiots”

Economic policy in an election year creates a political incentive to avoid visible economic pain (soup lines, high unemployment) by deploying fiscal stimulus, meaning even if inflation resurges, stimulus will continue for political reasons.

“and they can't print drma or something their dollars circulate down there so what do they do no Revenue no money no nobody will lend them anything they put tax incentives into place long story short as an investor if you get approved and you move there you can get a capital gains tax holiday 100% short and longterm which is as a Speculator who sometimes will move in and out of positions faster or or or not so fast you know it's spectacular and if you set up an incented business then they'll give you a low corporate tax rate so I get to live in a in a beautiful place not mining capital of the world uh but on April 15 there's no better place for a US tax player to be”

Young people who have been educated by the crypto community now understand the dangers of fiat currency, and many who made money in crypto are now interested in precious metals and mining because they see the structural opportunity; gold bugs should intellectually credit the crypto community for educating younger generations about monetary debasement.

“young people go around complaining about fiat currency nobody did that before the crypto guys came along and educated them so honestly I think gold bugs uh have an intellectual debt of gratitude here to the crypto crowd for educating two entire younger Generations about the dangers of fiat currency and when I interact with young people I hear it all the time it's it's not oh gold is evil you Boomer go away don't bother me it's oh there's an opportunity to make money here tell me more”

A hard landing in the economy would normally mean soup lines and mass unemployment, but Lobo does not believe this will actually occur because central banks and governments will deploy 'money helicopters'—stimulus checks and rate cuts—before it gets that bad, preventing true depression but potentially creating another inflationary cycle.

“I'm not sure no no let me replace that I don't want to mince words I do not think that's actually what we're headed for when I say hard Landing I think that's where we're headed in that direction but I do think that the powers that be will not let it happen or they'll do everything they can in other words the money helicopters will fly again the money floodgates will open pick your metaphor Bazookas whatever metaphor you want uh I think that the FED is already pivoting in that direction the time has come Powell said to change policy”

Uranium prices have fallen 15% from recent highs, but this correction occurred after a significant prior rally; the current uranium price level is still attractive for miners with better projects, making uranium stocks an opportunity despite the correction.

“uranium is still at a price where okay it's down 15% whatever it's at a price level where the better companies make tons of money this is this you don't be clear about this don't get this wrong the current corrected uranium price is not bad for the miners unless you have you know a a lowest desile project the current price levels are great for the actual business of making money uranium mining”