Doomberg - Is the Economy About to Change Big Time? | The Outlier Podcast

Doomberg's team is small enough to count on one hand with fingers left over, and if they hired 10 people they would be 50% less productive in total because management overhead would consume the efficiency gains, supporting his philosophy that 'it's okay to just do things yourself' without asking permission.

“Duberque's a first small team. Um you can count the contributing members of Duberque on one hand with multiple fingers left over. Um And we joke internally that if we hired 10 people, we'd be 50% as productive in total”

AI is incompatible with the existing power grid because the grid requires 'at least three nines reliable and cheap' power, but adding AI energy demand will necessarily drive prices higher, crushing everyone in society especially working people.

“the grid is useful to society, incredibly so. But only if it's at least three nines reliable and cheap. Um you can't put AI into the existing culture and architecture that we used to build, maintain, and manage the grid and succeed with the speed that AI demands without radically driving the price higher, which crushes everybody in society, especially Joe Sixpack”

Putin declared a new goal of creating a buffer zone in northern Ukraine (Sumy region) in response to a wave of hundreds of Ukrainian drones fired at Moscow, indicating that Ukraine's air attacks are escalating Russian territorial demands and pushing the war toward larger geographic scope.

“Putin has declared that a new goal of the Russian army is to create a buffer zone uh, in northern Ukraine in the Sumy region because of a wave of hundreds of drones that were fired at Moscow”

Trump had 'no wars' during his first term and ran on that promise, and it is 'one of the reasons why Trump was so popular' with working-class voters, proving that war avoidance is more electorally important than military adventurism.

“one of the reasons why Trump was so popular cuz he had no wars. And he ran on that. There were no new wars started under Trump”

Industrial contacts began raising alarms about recession and supply chain seizure in February 2025 due to the threat of tariffs alone, signaling that tariff policy is having immediate real economic effects.

“in February our industrial contacts started raising alarm about recession, uh supply chains seizing up on just the threat of tariffs”

Macron and Starmer have been 'very overt' about proposing an 'unconditional ceasefire' with no restrictions on arms supply to Ukraine, flying in British and French troops as tripwires, and rearming Ukraine post-ceasefire, while Russia has 'openly and consistently' refused to play that game, saying 'we've been fooled by that before.'

“Macron and Starmer been very um, overt about this. Um, let's have a unconditional ceasefire, no restrictions on arm supply to Ukraine. We're going to fly in some British and French troops as tripwires, and then, um, we're going to arm Ukraine to the teeth and give them a better chance to fight after ceasefire”

Trump is being treated 'like a hero in the Middle East' and received a standing ovation when announcing sanctions relief on Syria, indicating that regional powers want Trump to succeed and want J.D. Vance to win in 2028 because they prefer Trump's approach to US foreign policy.

“Trump again treated like a hero in the Middle East and did you see the standing ovation he got when he announced that they were going to lift the sanctions on Syria”

Industrial contacts raised alarm about recession in February due to supply chains seizing up from the threat of tariffs, providing an important signal about real economic stress ahead of Trump's policies taking hold

“in February our industrial contacts started raising alarm about recession, uh supply chains seizing up on just the threat of tariffs. Um basically um that's a really important signal in our view.”

Putin has declared a new goal of creating a buffer zone in northern Ukraine in the Sumy region because of waves of hundreds of drones being fired at Moscow, indicating Russia will continue expanding territorial demands as long as it faces security threats

“Putin has declared that a new goal of the Russian army is to create a buffer zone uh, in northern Ukraine in the Sumy region because of a wave of hundreds of drones that were fired at Moscow.”

The 'winning side doesn't demand ceasefires'—the winning side has no need for one and continues to advance—while the losing side demands ceasefires to regroup, making NATO/Ukraine's ceasefire demands proof that Russia is winning the war.

“the strongest proof I could say that validated my last appearance is that the winning side doesn't, uh, demand ceasefires. And and which side is demanding a ceasefire right now? It's it's the NATO side. It's the Ukrainian side”

Middle Eastern countries and sovereign wealth funds want Trump to succeed and J.D. Vance to win in 2028, indicating they believe Trump's strategy aligns with their interests in regional stability and reduced Western interference

“I think a lot of it has to do with they want Trump to succeed. They want J.D. Vance to win in '28. They want what Trump is trying to do in America to work.”

Trump wants $50 oil and seems likely to get it; the Saudis appear willing to help him achieve this goal

“Trump has declared that he wants $50 oil and he seems likely to get it. And um the Saudis seem willing to to help Trump pull it off.”

Ukraine needs a posture arm (ceasefire) and NATO/Europe are pursuing a strategy of unconditional ceasefire, no restrictions on weapons supply, Western troops as tripwires, then rearming Ukraine to fight again—but Russia has publicly rejected this strategy multiple times

“Ukraine needs needs a posture arm. And they've been very like Macron and Starmer been very um, overt about this. Um, let's have a unconditional ceasefire, no restrictions on arm supply to Ukraine. We're going to fly in some British and French troops as tripwires, and then, um, we're going to arm Ukraine to the teeth and give them a better chance to fight after ceasefire. And and the Russians have openly and consistently said, "We're not going to play that game anymore. We've been fooled by that before."”

Everyone in Trump's mind is going to benefit from onshoring, but the rich will get really rich out of it—trillions of foreign money flowing in will create large gains for Wall Street, executives, investors, and venture capitalists, with uncertain trickle-down to workers.

“everyone in Trump's mind is going to benefit. The rich people are going to get a really rich out of this. I mean, let's be honest. I mean um you can't bring in a trillion dollars of foreign money without a whole bunch of people on Wall Street and executives and investors and venture capitalists and private equity firms coming out way better than they were. Um Will some of it trickle down? I hope so.”

The transition from current energy trajectories to distributed SMR solutions won't be frictionless; there will be interesting (challenging) transitions that disrupt current stakeholders

“so, uh I think um that's the trend. Doesn't mean that the friction of the transition from where we are on, you know, this trajectory we're on today to that realization isn't going to be um let's say interesting.”

Lots of people in the US don't want Trump's objectives (Ukraine settlement, Middle East peace, China détente) to succeed, indicating domestic resistance to his foreign policy

“Lots of people in the US don't want any of those objectives to get done.”

Trump won in 2016 with no new wars and ran on ending wars, and Joe Sixpack voters support Trump partly because he had no wars, indicating voters prefer peace to military interventionism

“one of the reasons why Trump was so popular cuz he had no wars. And he ran on that. There were no new wars started under Trump. He's proud of that. He correctly says there would not have been a war in Ukraine if he had won in 2020.”

When you get entangled in foreign affairs, you violate the foundational principles of the US founding fathers; the wealthy people don't fight wars; there are rare exceptions (the Lamborghini-owning Marine) that prove the rule of class-based military service disparity.

“the founding fathers had this right. And um we're uh pushing power to the field commander level is always better than headquarters, right? Um And so like the lowest rank and when I was an executive I always tried to do this. Um When I was leading large teams and you have what's called span of control. Like so as I'm sure you know. Um Very similar in in corporate world as to the military except there's less less death.”

Ras Tanura is the world's most important energy production site, located in Qatar (a tiny island), and it produces enormous amounts of natural gas that ship to Japan, Korea, and Europe—it's well within Houthis' range and vulnerable to attack.

“Ras Ras Tanura is home to the world's most important energy production site. Um tiny island of Qatar. Um Qatar produces, you know, an enormous amount of natural gas that ends up on ships, most of it, and is fed to places like Japan, Korea, Europe now. Um and it's a very small area in the middle of the Middle East, well within the Houthis' range.”

Pushing power to the field commander level is always better than headquarters; Doomberg read military history and has respect for military institutions; in the military, commanders manage accountability and control mismatches.

“Like this is why by the way like I I've never been in the military. Um I read a lot of military history and I have a lot of respect for people that have been in the military. Um pushing power to the field commander level is always better than headquarters, right?”

The US response to 9/11 by invading Afghanistan was legitimate because 'the US was attacked,' but Western military support for Ukraine in the Donbas region lacks equivalent justification because the US was not attacked by Russia.

“Um after 9/11, I understand why you're you're going to Afghanistan. Um cuz the US was attacked. Like that was a legitimate response”

The founding fathers (George Washington, Thomas Jefferson) warned against 'foreign entanglements,' and yet the US has committed to NATO Article 5 obligations that require defending Estonia (1.4 million people, 3/4 the size of West Virginia) in a war with Russia, creating escalation risks that most Americans are unaware of.

“Estonia is a country of 1.4 million people. It might come as a surprise to the small subset of the 335 million Americans listening to this podcast that you and I have an Article 5 obligation to defend Estonia”

Trump is caught in a trap on Ukraine: he correctly believes that if he had won 2020, there would have been no Ukraine war, but the US is now a party to the war and the moment the US stops supplying weapons and intelligence, Ukraine will struggle to hold back Russia

“Um Trump is is caught in trap. Um he I think correctly believes that if he had won the 2020 election, there would not have been a war in Ukraine. Um and so he doesn't feel like it's his war. But the US is a party to the war. So he can't really be a mediator because the moment the US stops supplying weapons and intelligence it's going to be very difficult for Ukraine to hold back the Russian army.”

Eric (the host) discusses defense in depth and layering as military concepts, noting that it's interesting to think about the global scale of US defense and how far the depth extends globally, whereas Russia operates differently with Ukraine bordering it.

“it really is really interesting to learn the the the broader thought process behind the the isolationist position and whatnot. Um and it's interesting. It really is interesting to me that a big thing you learn in the military things like we call defense in depth and layering. So, it's really interesting to like think about those two, right? Like how how far is depth in the the global scale? And obviously for the US, it's global. Oceans.”

Almost no Western media outlets and very few Western news consumers read what Russians are writing or listen to what they're saying about their own positions, which means Western understanding of Russian goals is incomplete

“almost no Western media outlets and very few consumers of news in the West actually read what the Russians are writing or listen to what they're saying to understand what their positions are. Um and if they did, they would probably have a different view.”

Doomberg describes himself as unabashedly isolationist and believes the Department of Defense should be for defense, not proactive offense, and that the US has two oceans, guns in every home, and doesn't need to occupy foreign territories or intervene militarily

“Um I'm unabashedly isolationist. I think the Department of Defense should not be misconstrued as a Department of proactive offense. I think the US has amazing resources, economic potential, two oceans buffering us from hostilities. Nobody would ever dare attack us. Um every home in the country has guns in it. Good luck occupying it.”

The war in Ukraine has not benefited Ukraine materially or existentially (though it is existential to Ukraine), nor has it benefited Russian soldiers, nor foreign mercenaries being treated without rights and killed on sight

“Who has the war in Ukraine benefited? Not Ukraine. Arguably not the Russian soldiers who are dying. Certainly not the foreign mercenaries who are there. Um who the Russians are treating as though they don't have, you know, um the standards of rights um and they're killing them on the spot.”

Doomberg responds to defense in depth by offering the China-Mexico analogy: if Chinese gangs set up in Mexico firing drones at DC, the US would respond, but the difference is that Ukraine's situation is analogous to them 'invading Mexico,' which is a sovereignty claim, not a US security claim.

“but okay, but if you're Russia, so I just let's do the analogy. Um Chinese gangs have set up shop in Mexico and are firing drones that are approaching Washington, D.C. How would the US respond to that? No. Ukrainians would say, "Well, they invaded Mexico in your scenario." And, you know, they're just fighting for their sovereignty. You know, that's fine and true and and justifiable. But”

Failed immigration policy has driven down wages of manufacturing jobs to the point where Americans can't make a living in them compared to their neighbors, making onshoring both economically and socially justified

“failed immigration policy has driven down the wages of such jobs to the point where Americans can't really make a living doing those jobs, at least compared to their neighbors.”

AI demand for energy is bullish in the short term and bullish for energy supply in the intermediate term, but there will be a gap between demand and supply that needs to be closed

“Yeah, in the short term it is uh bullish for demand. And in the intermediate term it's bullish for supply. Mhm. Um but there is going to be a gap.”

There will be a mismatch between the type of oil that US refiners prefer to refine and the type of oil produced from shale, but this will be fixed over time with investment

“Yes, we have a mismatch between the type of oil that our refiners like to refine versus the type of oil that we are producing out of shale. All that will be fixed over time with investment.”

Bureaucracy chokes out innovation, and there's no bigger bureaucracy than the Pentagon; smaller teams are more productive because you don't spend all your time managing people

“Look, we bureaucracy chokes out innovation. And there's no bigger bureaucracy than the Pentagon. I I can only tell like Duberque's a first small team. Um you can count the contributing members of Duberque on one hand with multiple fingers left over. Um And we joke internally that if we hired 10 people, we'd be 50% as productive in total. Because you spend all your time managing the 10 people.”

Pippa Malmgren wrote a piece arguing that Trump's interactions with foreign countries should be understood in the context of him 'staring down the deep state,' implying that if you model the US as currently in a civil war between Trump and the intelligence/foreign policy establishment, his foreign policy moves make more sense.

“Pippa Malmgren wrote a really fascinating piece. I wish I could remember the title. Um basically saying that he's getting the help of these countries to stare down the deep state. And if you model the US as currently being in a civil war, then all of this can make a lot more sense”

Trump's move to bar Harvard from accepting foreign students is actually 'an attack on the intelligence community' because foreign student recruitment is 'part of their giant grift,' with Mike Benz providing detailed analysis of this dynamic on Twitter.

“the attack on Harvard, which some judge just issued a temporary restraining order nationwide already hours later, um to Trump's move to bar Harvard from um accepting foreign students. Um that's actually an attack on the intelligence community, cuz it's just part of their giant grift”

Trump's civil war with the deep state is being aided by Middle Eastern countries and allies who are helping him stare down the deep state, possibly because the CIA has messed around in the Middle East for a long time and regional actors are tired of it

“there's a whole broader thought around Trump's civil war with the deep state. And Pippa Malmgren wrote a really fascinating piece. I wish I could remember the title. Um basically saying that he's getting the help of these countries to stare down the deep state. And if you model the US as currently being in a civil war, then all of this can make a lot more sense. Um Lord knows the CIA has messed around in the Middle East for an awful long time, and people are probably pretty tired of it over there.”

Russian military will 'go all in for a military victory' by May as muddy season ends and tanks can maneuver; absent large US weapons appropriation (unlikely given no Ukraine funding in 'big beautiful bill'), war will end militarily.

“when you look at the area that the Russians are securing and the pace of area in May, which is of course they're getting out of the muddy season and you know, the tanks can now roll without getting stuck in the mud. Um they're going to go all in for a military victory. And absent a large appropriation from the US Congress, which looks very unlikely. There was no talk of weapons for Ukraine in the big beautiful bill. Um I don't know how it ends in the any other way other than militarily.”

Capital markets do a very poor job of pricing national security risk, which is one reason to support onshoring manufacturing despite labor cost arguments

“The US and capital markets in general do a very poor job of pricing national security risk.”

Two pipelines connect Russia to Turkey and carry gas that Russia has accused Ukraine of trying to blow up; Nord Stream destruction normalized wanton destruction of critical energy infrastructure and opened the door to further attacks

“there's a two pipelines that connect Russia to Turkey that Russia has accused, and I think Turkey has quietly agreed, Ukraine has been trying to blow up. Um you know, the Nord Stream pipeline, I think, was a catastrophe. Um exploding that pipeline was a disaster because it normalizes the wanton destruction of critical energy infrastructure.”

Losing wars is hard, which is why you don't get into them—but once you're in one, the constraints on exiting make the decision between losing and perpetuating loss equally painful

“losing wars is hard. That's why you don't get into them.”

The US is 'more than self-sufficient' in energy, is a net energy exporter, refines more finished products than it needs, and has resolved any mismatch between refinery preferences and shale oil types through investment over time, making resource scarcity arguments for military intervention obsolete.

“We're more than self-sufficient. We're net energy exporters. We refine way more finished products than we need. Yes, we have a mismatch between the type of oil that our refiners like to refine versus the type of oil that we are producing out of shale. All that will be fixed over time with investment”

Trump received a standing ovation when he announced lifting sanctions on Syria, indicating Middle East approval of his geopolitical vision

“Did you see the standing ovation he got when he announced that they were going to lift the sanctions on Syria, which is a whole other ball of wax.”

In corporate leadership, the most important practice is matching 'accountability with control'—ensuring that people have authority proportionate to responsibility and that decision-making authority is clarified using RACI charts (Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed).

“my goal was always clear goal writing and matching accountability with control. You have the authority to hire, to fire, to promote, to develop. Um but this is the subset of decisions I need to be consulted on. It's a classic RACI chart, responsible, accountable, consulted, informed”

Lawyers 'advise' while leaders 'decide,' and the worst thing an organization can do is 'get an opinion of a lawyer' before acting, meaning legal review should follow leadership decisions rather than constrain them.

“Don't but the last thing you want to do is get an opinion of a lawyer. Um Right? Like lawyers advise and leaders decide. Go. Like point, pull the trigger”

The India-Pakistan conflict is another example where the US correctly recognizes a desire to avoid civil war but doesn't care to intervene militarily, as J.D. Vance noted—there's always conflict in the world and the US should establish a high-trust society at home and protect it rather than get entangled.

“the latest situation in India and Pakistan is a great example. Like J.D. Vance had the correct take on it. We would like to avoid civil war, but we don't care about this war to send American troops or get involved militarily. Right? Um there's always conflict in the world. The world's an ugly, dangerous, violent place as you probably know way better than me viscerally.”

For the rest of the year, Doomberg's primary themes of interest are: (1) Trump's response to Russia's continuation of the war in Ukraine; (2) whether Trump falls into the trap of going to war in Iran; (3) whether Trump can achieve détente with China over Taiwan.

“Um Trump's response to Russia's continuation of the war in Ukraine. Um whether Trump falls into the trap of going to war in Iran. And whether Trump can achieve a detente with China over the Taiwan issue.”

The Russia-Ukraine war cannot be solved in any way other than militarily because Russia's stated conditions have not changed and only grow more aggressive with each square kilometer occupied, meaning negotiated settlement without Russian military victory is impossible.

“I don't think the conflict can be solved in any other way other than militarily. And um the terms that Russia has been consistently laying out there have not changed and only get more aggressive with each uh square kilometer that the um Russians occupy”

If China takes Taiwan, that would represent the continuation of a 'civil war from the 1940s still being fought,' and while regrettable, it does not 'meaningfully change your life' as an American, meaning Taiwan's status quo is not worth American military intervention.

“if China takes Taiwan, does that really meaningfully change your life? That that's that's civil war from the '40s still being fought. Right?”

Pete Hegseth's treatment during his nomination was 'shameful' because critics focused on his 'lack of qualifications' by 'traditional elite measurements' rather than his leadership capability, which is better measured by troops' response to him in morning workouts.

“I do think it is um, shameful how um, Hegseth's military service is minimized and his lack of {quote} qualifications for the job by the traditional elite measurements is is continuously highlighted”

The Chinese are 'just as far advanced, if not farther than we are' in quantum computing, and 'Kurzweil is going to be proven right,' indicating that the AI/quantum revolution is inevitable and global, not unique to the US.

“The Chinese are just as far advanced, if not farther than we are. And um Kurzweil is going to be proven right”

Trump is talented and operates with intention—not all of his apparently chaotic behavior is accidental; some of it is deliberate theatricality, and while it's not how Doomberg operates, it's important to observe objectively.

“He's a talented person. And so when you see a mania, it's almost always on purpose. Again, it's not how I operate. I you know, my personality and Trump's personality in between the two of us is everybody else. Um but that's fine. Like I'm capable of trying to look objectively measure, you know.”

Ukraine is desperate and willing to do anything to survive; if Ukraine attacked the Turk Stream pipeline, it would have hurt Europeans more than Russia, showing the desperation of their military situation

“Ukraine is desperate, understandably so. Losing wars is hard. Um if it's existential, you're willing to do anything. And and so um there was an attack on the Turk Stream one of the Turk Stream compressor stations that the apparently the Russian air defense system managed to knock out. Um if that attack had been successful, ironically, the Europeans would have been in a world of hurt.”

Hegseth's military service is minimized by the traditional elite, and his lack of 'qualifications' by traditional measurements is continuously highlighted, but troops respond to him when he works out with them in the morning, showing his leadership potential.

“I do think it is um, shameful how um, Hegseth's military service is minimized and his lack of {quote} qualifications for the job by the traditional elite measurements is is continuously highlighted by those who oppose him or oppose Trump. And you only need look at how the troops respond to him when he works out with them in the morning to get a true understanding of the leadership potential of Pete Buttigieg.”

If Trump succeeds in avoiding escalation on the last two geopolitical tests (Iran, China), he will be a consequential president; these are outcomes he can control or fail on, unlike the Ukraine situation

“And if he um succeeds in avoiding escalation, um especially in the last two, um he will be a pretty consequential president um my view. And I think you know Trump is kind of like the last person I spoke to kind of guy like if you can get Trump he's going to he's he's a people person. He's very high EQ, right?”

Russians are advancing in May after the muddy season ends and tanks can roll without getting stuck, and they are going to 'go all in for a military victory,' making military solutions more likely absent large US weapons appropriations

“of course they're getting out of the muddy season and you know, the tanks can now roll without getting stuck in the mud. Um they're going to go all in for a military victory. And and absent a large appropriation from the US Congress, which looks very unlikely. There was no talk of weapons for Ukraine in the big beautiful bill. Um I don't know how it ends in the any other way other than militarily.”

The Russia-Ukraine conflict cannot be solved in any other way than militarily, and Russian demands have only gotten more aggressive with each square kilometer they occupy, changing the terms for a settlement

“I I don't think the conflict can be solved in any other way other than militarily. And um the terms that Russia has been consistently laying out there have not changed and only get more aggressive with each uh square kilometer that the um Russians occupy.”

Doomberg identifies as 'unabashedly isolationist' and argues the Department of Defense should be understood as a 'Department of proactive offense,' and that the US should focus on defending its own territory (buffered by two oceans and civilian gun ownership) rather than projecting military power globally.

“I'm unabashedly isolationist. I think the Department of Defense should not be misconstrued as a Department of proactive offense. I think the US has amazing resources, economic potential, two oceans buffering us from hostilities. Nobody would ever dare attack us. Um every home in the country has guns in it. Good luck occupying it”

AI is 'a derivative of energy' and what the world is seeing now is not 'cutting edge research' but 'deployment' of cutting-edge research from previous periods, and Doomberg is 'a firm believer' and 'sold' on AI's potential, participating in private markets.

“AI in general is a derivative of energy. And AI, like what we're seeing now is not the cutting edge research of AI. It's just being deployed. It's very cutting edge compared to standard computing. I'm a firm believer. I'm participating in the private markets. I'm sold”

The founding fathers—George Washington and Thomas Jefferson—warned about foreign entanglements, and Doomberg is putting out a piece on Estonia and the Gulf of Finland situation, with the piece titled 'Tripwire,' about how the US has an Article 5 NATO obligation to defend Estonia (1.4 million people), which is both absurd and a dangerous escalation risk.

“The George Washington famously warned about foreign entanglements, and Thomas Jefferson did the same, and we quote both of their cautions in the piece. Um secure the homeland, engage in commerce, invest in a high-trust society, um education, good jobs, prosperity, cheap energy. And we're uh putting a piece out on on Tuesday uh on Estonia and the whole situation in the Gulf of Finland. And the piece is called tripwire. Estonia's a country of 1.4 million people. It might come as a surprise to the small subset of the 335 million Americans listening to this podcast that you and I have an Article 5 obligation to defend Estonia.”

OPEC is suddenly doing Trump's bidding on oil prices and is masking this as punishment of Kazakhstan for cheating, but cheating has been ongoing in OPEC forever, indicating a deal was cut

“OPEC is suddenly doing Trump's bidding. I mean, let's just be honest. Yeah. Um and um they're masking it as though they're punishing Kazakhstan for cheating. Cheating's been going on in OPEC forever. Who are we kidding? Um a deal was cut.”

The Russian-speaking part of the Donbas is part of some broader geopolitical game that Europeans care much more about than Americans do, and it's existential to Russia, obviously existential to Ukraine, but geopolitically important to the US to weaken Russia—making the case unclear for American military involvement.

“Um but the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas is part of some broader geopolitical game that the Europeans care much more about than we do. I don't know. I just don't get too excited about Um it it it there's no it's ex-existential to Russia. It's obviously existential to Ukraine. Um it's geopolitically important to the US to weaken Russia, I guess. Um I don't know. I I just you when you read enough history and you do what we do, it's hard not to get cynical.”

The US should let Europe defend Europe, not get entangled in proactive offense under the guise of defense.

“Let the Let Europe defend Europe. That's sort of my view.”

It's okay to just do things yourself, don't ask, and don't get a lawyer's opinion—lawyers advise and leaders decide; this is why field commanders matter more than headquarters.

“It's okay to just do things yourself. Okay? Like just go and do. Don't ask. Um Don't but the last thing you want to do is get an opinion of a lawyer. Um Right? Like lawyers advise and leaders decide. Go. Like point, pull the trigger.”

Estonia is using its small navy (eight ships total) to attempt to seize Russian oil tankers in the Gulf of Finland EEZ, and European allies are deliberately creating Article 5 'tripwire' incidents designed to rope the US into a broader conflict with Russia.

“Estonia is using a small subset of its eight navy ships in total to try to board and otherwise um seize tankers containing Russian oil that is flowing through the EEZ in the Gulf of of Finland. And um are we really going to go to war because Estonia got Well, you know, a fighter jet a Russian fighter jet buzzed the situation”

Pete Hegseth will 'unstick US nuclear energy' by leveraging the US military to circumvent civilian NRC obstacles through Defense Production Act authorities, using military campuses to deploy small modular reactors for AI data centers, and gutting/rebuilding the NRC.

“Pete Hegseth um, is going to unstick US nuclear energy. And if you'd have told me when we started Dimberg that um, my favorite Fox and Friends Weekend host um, was going to be the catalyst for uh, unsticking US nuclear energy, I I could hardly have believed you”

A 'deal was cut' between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States during weeks of negotiations hosted in Saudi Arabia, ostensibly about Ukraine but actually about something 'broader and more consequential,' and OPEC is now 'suddenly doing Trump's bidding' masked as punishment of Kazakhstan for cheating.

“whenever you have Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States sitting around negotiating with each other for weeks at a time, history tells us that when the three largest oil producers like that get together, whatever the headline reason is for them to be meeting is is almost never really what it's all about. And so for weeks we had the whole Ukraine thing. Talks were hosted in Saudi Arabia. Um we believe a broader, more consequential deal than just settling the war in Ukraine... something else is going on, back channels. And I think um a deal was cut”

Trump's move to bar Harvard from accepting foreign students is actually an attack on the intelligence community because foreign student recruitment is part of their 'giant grift,' as analyzed by Mike Benz

“Look at what he's doing with Harvard in this regard. Um I I have to give a hat tip to Mike Benz's great work on Twitter. I'm sure you follow it or you've seen it. Um you know, the the attack on Harvard, which some judge just issued a temporary restraining order nationwide already hours later, um to Trump's move to bar Harvard from um accepting foreign students. Um that's actually an attack on the intelligence community, cuz it's just part of their giant grift.”

A broader, more consequential deal than the Ukraine settlement was cut during weeks of negotiations between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, though the specific terms are speculative

“whenever you have Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States sitting around negotiating with each other for weeks at a time, history tells us that when the three largest oil producers like that get together, whatever the headline reason is for them to be meeting is is almost never really what it's all about. And so for weeks we had the whole Ukraine thing. Talks were hosted in Saudi Arabia. Um we believe a broader, more consequential deal than just settling the war in Ukraine, which of course is very consequential, especially for those who live in Ukraine. Um something else is going on, back channels. And I think um a deal was cut.”

Trump connects with regular people in a way no modern politician does, and dismissing this phenomenon as elite coastal bias misses the point—his popularity reflects genuine alignment with working-class priorities.

“There's no politician in the in the modern era that connects with regular people in the way Trump does. Um And your view of that depends on your view of regular people. I happen to take the views of regular people seriously. What is Trump saying and doing that has caused this billionaire from New York, flamboyant billionaire from New York to become their champion? Like don't ignore that. Like that's real.”

Distributed SMRs (small modular reactors) with natural gas input and data output, fission on one side and data on the other, are the solution because they don't require grid connections and don't create demand crowding

“So, this is why I think distributed SMRs, natural gas goes in one side, data comes out the other, fission happens on one side of the building and data comes out the other, is the solution where you don't have to worry about grid connections. You aren't creating demand cuz like these companies will pay way more than you and I like to pay or industry likes to pay for its electricity.”

Trump connects with regular people in a way no modern politician does, and dismissing this connection is arrogant; if you take regular people's views seriously, you cannot ignore Trump's political appeal

“There's no politician in the in the modern era that connects with regular people in the way Trump does. Um And your view of that depends on your view of regular people. I happen to take the views of regular people seriously. What is Trump saying and doing that has caused this billionaire from New York, flamboyant billionaire from New York to become their champion? Like don't ignore that. Like that's real.”

In the short term, cutting-edge AI development doesn't require much energy and is willing to pay effectively anything for it, so quantum computing development is not tied to nuclear energy deployment

“the cutting edge of computing, the very cutting edge of computing, while it's being developed, doesn't actually need that much energy and is willing to pay effectively anything for it. Um so, I don't think that the development of quantum computing is is um tied to a real lot of nuclear energy, for example.”

Trump is a people person with high emotional intelligence (EQ), and recently spent time in the Middle East without stopping in Israel, which Doomberg sees as strategically interesting

“Trump is kind of like the last person I spoke to kind of guy like if you can get Trump he's going to he's he's a people person. He's very high EQ, right? And so he just spent a lot of time in the Middle East and got noticed that he didn't stop in Israel which was interesting.”

Estonia is using a small subset of its 8 total navy ships to board and seize tankers containing Russian oil flowing through the EEZ in the Gulf of Finland, and when a Russian fighter jet buzzed the situation, the Estonian navy beat a hasty retreat—this is escalation designed to trigger an Article 5 incident.

“Estonia is using a small subset of its eight navy ships in total to try to board and otherwise um seize tankers containing Russian oil that is flowing through the EEZ in the Gulf of of Finland. And um are we really going to go to war because Estonia got Well, you know, a fighter jet a Russian fighter jet buzzed the situation and that caused the Estonian navy to beat a a hasty retreat. Um but there's pure escalation going on right now amongst the European {quote} allies that is designed to trigger an Article 5 incident and rope the US into a broader conflict with Russia.”

There was an attack on Turk Stream compressor station apparently knocked out by Russian air defense; if that attack had been successful in summer/November, Europeans would have been in a world of hurt, but summertime lowers the risk somewhat.

“there was an attack on the Turk Stream one of the Turk Stream compressor stations that the apparently the Russian air defense system managed to knock out. Um if that attack had been successful, ironically, the Europeans would have been in a world of hurt. Now, it's summertime, the risk is a little bit less. You see that pipeline go out in November, it's a whole different story.”

Terrorism against energy 'choke points' (like Ras Tanura in Qatar or pipeline corridors) is an 'under-appreciated risk' because a 'well-informed bad actor could do significant damage to the global economy with a very, very small repertoire of weapons.'

“Um I think terrorism against choke points. Um a well-informed bad actor could do significant damage to the global economy with a very, very small repertoire of weapons”

The Nord Stream pipeline explosion was 'a catastrophe' and 'a disaster' because it 'normalizes the wanton destruction of critical energy infrastructure,' and once infrastructure destruction becomes normalized, 'a lot of ugly outcomes' result.

“the Nord Stream pipeline, I think, was a catastrophe. Um exploding that pipeline was a disaster because it normalizes the wanton destruction of critical energy infrastructure”

Doomberg is 'unabashedly 100% for' onshoring manufacturing to the US because the US capital markets do a poor job pricing national security risk, and failed immigration policy has driven manufacturing wages down to the point where Americans cannot make a living compared to their international neighbors.

“I unabashedly 100% for it. Trump deserves full credit for trying to get it. Um the US and capital markets in general do a very poor job of pricing national security risk. Um and I think failed immigration policy has driven down the wages of such jobs to the point where Americans can't really make a living doing those jobs”

Distributed small modular reactors (SMRs) powered by natural gas are the solution to AI energy demand because they don't require grid connections, avoid creating grid-wide demand spikes, allow companies to pay premium prices for power without affecting broader electricity markets, and align incentives: 'fission happens on one side of the building and data comes out the other.'

“distributed SMRs, natural gas goes in one side, data comes out the other, fission happens on one side of the building and data comes out the other, is the solution where you don't have to worry about grid connections. You aren't creating demand cuz like these companies will pay way more than you and I like to pay or industry likes to pay for its electricity”

A unified Middle East buffered from outside interference, freedom from forever wars, freedom from war with Iran, and freedom from war in Syria are each worth suffering 'a few quarters of declining profits' for OPEC, making regional stability and independence worth the cost of lower oil revenues.

“a unified Middle East, buffered from outside interference, and the forever wars, and the war with Iran, and the war in Syria. Yeah, if if they could settle all of that and be left alone to enjoy their riches, that's a prize worth suffering a few quarters of um declining profits for”

All information consumed about Ukraine 'is propaganda' and requires the reader to: (1) read propaganda from all sides (Kyiv Independent and TASS), (2) wait 3-4 days for facts to emerge, (3) cross-reference predictions made by different sources, and (4) add credibility weight to sources that prove accurate.

“every piece of information you're getting is propaganda. And you have to have a a mechanism to read everybody's propaganda and then observe developments as they unfold and go back to the sources that predicted various things and see which one was mostly right. And then you sort of add more credibility weight to that source over time as they're more and more right”

Once axiom that 'Trump wanted Carney to be PM' was adopted, subsequent news (51st state talk, Governor Trudeau language) became comprehensible and predictive, validating the underlying assumption.

“once you have that as an axiom, the 51st state and Governor Trudeau talk makes sense.”

Trump is 'authentically' who he is and his critics' characterizations of him are accurate (he is 'all the things everybody says he is'), including both negative (Trump University scam) and positive (treating foreign investors as a king, bringing trillions in FDI), and both can be true simultaneously.

“I actually don't ever doubt his authenticity. And look, he's all the things everybody says he is, including his critics, right? Like, yes, Trump University was a scam. Like, the same person who did Trump University was just treated like a king in the Middle East and and worked tirelessly to bring trillions of dollars of foreign direct investment into the United States”

The dropping of the gold standard in the 1970s was covered without mention of the petrodollar, suggesting that 'something is going on behind the scenes' during major decade-shaping moves that is not being presented in contemporary reporting.

“when you look at how the re you know, the the dropping of the gold standard was covered in the 1970s. There's no talk of the petrodollar in the contemporary um reporting of what was going on. Um there's something going on behind the scenes. We're not privy to it”

Doomberg doesn't doubt Trump's authenticity even while acknowledging he is 'all the things everybody says he is'—Trump University was a scam, but the same person worked tirelessly to bring trillions in foreign direct investment to the US

“I actually don't ever doubt his authenticity. And look, he's all the things everybody says he is, including his critics, right? Like, yes, Trump University was a scam. Like, the same person who did Trump University was just treated like a king in the Middle East and and worked tirelessly to bring trillions of dollars of foreign direct investment into the United States.”

Every piece of information about Ukraine from Western sources is propaganda, so evaluating the information requires reading multiple sources (Western, Ukrainian, Russian) and observing developments over time to identify which predictions were correct

“you have to understand that every piece of information you're getting is propaganda. And you have to have a a mechanism to read everybody's propaganda and then observe developments as they unfold and go back to the sources that predicted various things and see which one was mostly right.”

People front-running tariffs create wild measurement swings across multiple data points, such as soaring imports that affect measured GDP but don't reflect authentic sustainable economic activity, making macro analysis measurement extremely challenging

“because people are front-running things, you're going to get wild measurements across multiple data. Like people front-running the tariffs, all of a sudden you see a soaring imports. Well, that affects the measured GDP number. Does it really reflect authentic sustainable economic activity?”

Something significant is happening behind the scenes that differs from the official narrative; comparing the 1970s coverage of the gold standard drop shows no mention of the petrodollar in contemporary reporting, suggesting major structural shifts are not openly discussed

“when you look at how the re you know, the the dropping of the gold standard was covered in the 1970s. There's no talk of the petrodollar in the contemporary um reporting of what was going on. Um there's something going on behind the scenes. We're not privy to it. Um but it's never what is being presented that's actually what's happening whenever you have momentous decade shapeshifting type moves like we're seeing now.”

The Western Hemisphere is 'way more than self-sufficient' and constitutes the US sphere of influence in Trump's multipolar world vision, making US military presence in Europe and East Asia unnecessary for self-defense.

“the Western Hemisphere is is way more than self-sufficient and I think the sort of um multipolar world that Trump envisions um that is the US's sphere of influence”

Freeport LNG had a 'mysterious explosion' shortly after Nord Stream destruction, with 'rumors' it was a Russian cyber attack, illustrating the speculative environment around infrastructure sabotage in the US.

“Freeport LNG had a mysterious explosion shortly after the whole Nord Stream affair and there was a lot of rumors that maybe this was, you know, Russian cyber attack”

In macroeconomic forecasting, having no opinion is worse than being wrong, and the correct practice is to show your work, provide evidence for your theory, and lay out what evidence would prove you wrong.

“The only thing worse in our business than being wrong is having no opinion. And one of the things that we're always very careful to do is show our homework. Here's the link. Here's why. Here's why we think that. Here's evidence that would prove our theory wrong.”

Quantum computing research is real and being pursued; the Chinese are just as far advanced or farther than the US, and Kurzweil's predictions about technological acceleration will be proven right

“Um Kurzweil is going to be proven right. What do you think of the other way? Do you think that there's an impact that the advancement of AI and or quantum computing can have on the future of energy? Yeah, in the short term it is uh bullish for demand. And in the intermediate term it's bullish for supply. Mhm. Um but there is going to be a gap.”

Victor Orban correctly described the Ukraine war as a Slavic civil war, implying it's an internal dispute rather than a conflict requiring Western intervention

“Victor Orban of Hungary correctly described this as a Slavic civil war.”

Three of the four pipelines connecting Russia to Europe have been blown up or destroyed (Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, and one other), and two large pipelines to Turkey (TurkStream and Blue Stream) remain intact, meaning Europe is cut off from Russian gas except through Turkey.

“and three of the four pipelines are blown up. There are two large pipelines that connect Russia to Turkey that then go on to feed gas to places like Hungary and Slovakia and Italy and broader Europe”

Pete Hegseth will be instrumental in unsticking US nuclear energy by leveraging the Defense Production Act and stripping the NRC of its ability to block nuclear deployment while rebuilding it in Trump's image

“To cut the Gordian knot, Pete Hegseth um, is going to unstick US nuclear energy. And if you'd have told me when we started Dimberg that um, my favorite Fox and Friends Weekend host um, was going to be the catalyst for uh, unsticking US nuclear energy, I I could hardly have believed you.”

Freeport LNG had a mysterious explosion shortly after Nord Stream, with rumors of Russian cyber attack, but attribution is difficult due to the propaganda/disinformation environment

“You know, Freeport LNG had a mysterious explosion shortly after the whole Nord Stream affair and there was a lot of rumors that maybe this was, you know, Russian cyber attack that you know, uh who knows. Um back to propaganda and disinformation.”

Confidence is an absolute measure while arrogance is a relative one, and Doomberg is absolutely confident in their abilities and proud of their work, but measures themselves against their own standard rather than against competitors, which differentiates them from mainstream media that is defined by arrogance.

“confidence is an absolute measure and arrogance is a relative one. And we're absolutely confident in our abilities and we're proud of our work and um, you know, we we measure ourselves against our own standard”

Once you have an axiom (like 'Trump wanted Carney to be PM'), you can measure the news flow against it and start noticing things that fit—for example, the '51st state' and 'Governor Trudeau' talk suddenly makes sense as part of a coherent political strategy.

“once you have that as an axiom against which you can measure the news flow and see what how well it fits, um we started to notice things. So once you have that as an axiom, the 51st state and Governor Trudeau talk makes sense.”

Sovereign wealth funds are beginning a 'huge wave of interest' in capitalizing investments with US manufacturing bases or manufacturing potential, which Doomberg is observing firsthand through private investing.

“in our own private investing, we're seeing the beginnings of a huge wave of interest from sovereign wealth funds um to capitalize investments that have um you know, a a a a manufacturing base or the potential for one in the US”

Trump's Middle East trip was remarkable and demonstrated his ability to secure massive foreign direct investment commitments; Doomberg is seeing a wave of interest from sovereign wealth funds to capitalize investments with manufacturing bases or potential in the US

“his trip to the Middle East was was actually quite remarkable. And um in our own private investing, we're seeing the beginnings of a huge wave of interest from sovereign wealth funds um to capitalize investments that have um you know, a a a a manufacturing base or the potential for one in the US”

War is a racket, and when you're in the bomb-making business, peace is a 'working capital problem' because it eliminates revenue and profit, creating structural opposition to peace within the defense industrial complex.

“war is a racket. Um and when you're in the bomb-making business, peace is a working capital problem”

In the drone attack on Moscow, Russian claims of 100% interception versus video evidence of explosions along the drone approach path showed that the Russian Defense Minister was 'fibbing a little bit,' providing a test case for comparing propaganda versus reality.

“the whole reporting around the massive drone attack on Moscow was reported wildly differently between the Russians and Ukrainians. Um you see that enough times. So, for example, if the Russians claim that every single drone was shot down and then you're seeing video footage of explosions along the path to Moscow, well then you know, maybe maybe that um that Russian uh Minister of Defense was um was fibbing a little bit”

The US military value chain operates on a principle of 'defense in depth' and layering defensive capabilities, but the question of how far this defense extends (local, national, or global) determines whether isolationism or interventionism is the appropriate strategy.

“we call defense in depth and layering. So, it's really interesting to like think about those two, right? Like how how far is depth in the the global scale? And obviously for the US, it's global. Oceans”

Ukraine is 'desperate' and therefore 'willing to do anything' in war, including attacking Turkish pipelines, indicating that desperate parties lose strategic restraint and engage in escalatory actions.

“Ukraine is desperate, understandably so. Um losing wars is hard. Um if it's existential, you're willing to do anything”

Every time Doomberg publishes, 100% of the team believes every word in that piece at that moment; five minutes later new information could change views radically, but at publication the piece represents their best, most informed opinion.

“one of the things that is authentically true with everything we write is the moment we press send, everybody on the team 100% believes every word in that piece. Mhm. That's a moment in time. Five minutes later, new information could come that radically changes our views. But the moment we press send, there is not a doubt that we that is our best, most informed opinion”

Doomberg's brand ambition is to be 'provocative without being polarizing,' 'funny without being silly,' and to 'teach without being self-indulgent,' and subscribers come to Doomberg to be provoked and to think rather than for traditional straight news reporting.

“We will be provocative without being polarizing. Um we will be funny without being silly and we will teach without being self-indulgent”

Once Doomberg turned on the paywall, it brought the business to a whole different level of responsibility because people are now paying to consume the product, and that responsibility never leaves Doomberg's mind.

“Once we turned on the paywall, it just brought the business to a whole different level of responsibility for us. Like people are paying to consume this product. Um and that that never leaves my mind. Like I I we're not going to just put garbage out. Like people are paying for this and we're going to earn their business.”

Doomberg publishes 90+ pieces per year and reviews their prediction accuracy quarterly; they maintain high hit rates and openly acknowledge wrong calls.

“when you publish, you know, 90 plus times a year like we do, you know, nobody bats a thousand. So, um, one of the things we do is about every three or six months, you know, once a quarter, couple times a year, we'll just write a piece that looks back at five or six uh, of our calls and, you know, we have a pretty good hit rate.”

Doomberg has military-age children and cares about their draft eligibility; he also has friends from other countries and takes their security concerns seriously, but this doesn't automatically justify military intervention in foreign conflicts

“Um and it's one of those conflicts that does have a lot to it that escapes a lot of more casual observers of it. Um yeah, every time that I I talk to some of my military friends and we're we're trying to dive deeper and deeper into it, you realize how tangled really that whole region is, but the there's a lot of history. Look, Victor Orban of Hungary correctly described this as a Slavic civil war. Right. Um so I actually I care a lot about your military bodies, right? Um and I have children of military age, draft eligible.”

The moment Doomberg publishes a piece, the entire team is 100% confident in it; five minutes later new information could radically change their views, but at that moment of publication, there is not a doubt.

“the moment we press send, everybody on the team 100% believes every word in that piece. Mhm. That's a moment in time. Five minutes later, new information could come that radically changes our views. But the moment we press send, there is not a doubt that we that is our best, most informed opinion”

Doomberg's brand is to be lateral thinkers who provoke and make people think, not to provide traditional straight news reporting; they aim to be provocative without polarizing, funny without being silly, and teach without being self-indulgent

“You come to Doomberg to be provoked. You come to Doomberg to think. And you come to Doomberg, hopefully, for at least one good chuckle uh a piece. And that's our brand ambition. We will be provocative without being polarizing. Um we will be funny without being silly and we will teach without being self-indulgent.”

Doomberg's business model requires showing homework and evidence, including evidence that would prove their theories wrong, so subscribers can use their work as input to their own decision-making

“in our business, um if you are The only thing worse in our business than being wrong is having no opinion. And one of the things that we're always very careful to do is show our homework. Here's the link. Here's why. Here's why we think that. Here's evidence that would prove our theory wrong.”

Doomberg called the US 'not broke' earlier in the year, but liberation day and Trump's 'big beautiful bill' threw the situation into a mess and demonstrated fiscal irresponsibility, though the core arguments still hold that the US is not currently broke despite being on a trajectory toward bankruptcy

“we we had made a call, um, earlier in the year for example, that, um, we we wrote a piece literally called the US is not broke. Um, then liberation day happened and threw the whole economic situation into, uh, a mess. And now we see the big beautiful bill is, um, you know, not exactly fiscally responsible. Um, so while the US is certainly not broke even still and the core arguments of that piece hold true, um, we're still heading towards being broke because of political choices and behaviors.”

An honest question to ask is: when did you begin to care about who rules the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas, and why do you care? Would you send your sons to fight to decide that question?

“I said um when did you begin to care about who rules the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas? Um and why do you care about it? It's like an honest question, right? Like and would you send your boys to go fight to decide who gets to rule the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas?”

The mainstream media's primary problem is arrogance; confidence is absolute but arrogance is relative, and Doomberg measures itself against its own standard rather than competitors.

“I think one of the problems with the mainstream media is arrogance. And um, there's you know, confidence is an absolute measure and arrogance is a relative one. And we're absolutely confident in our abilities and we're proud of our work and um, you know, we we measure ourselves against our own standard and and I think that comes through.”

Almost no Western media outlets and very few Western consumers of news actually read Russian sources (TASS, official Russian statements) to understand what Russia is claiming and arguing, meaning Western audiences operate with incomplete information.

“almost no Western media outlets and very few consumers of news in the West actually read what the Russians are writing or listen to what they're saying to understand what their positions are”

Doomberg's approach to macro analysis uses lateral thinking that does not require knowing why a model is working, but instead trusts that it works and discards it the moment it stops working, as demonstrated by their prediction of Mark Carney replacing Justin Trudeau.

“lateral thinking requires that you have the ability to not have to know why a model is working and trust that it just is and then discard it the moment it's not”

Trump's magic trick is selecting positions on easy issues with 80/20 public support, taking the 80% side loudly, which forces opponents to argue the 20% position and lose repeatedly in public debate.

“Trump has a magic trick which I must say Scott Jennings on CNN is the one who opened my eyes to this trick. He picks positions on really easy issues. 80/20 support in the country. And he he takes the 80% side loudly and all the Democrats who hate him so much viscerally for whatever their justifications, they are forced to argue the 20% position and he's just crushing them. Like over and over and over and over and over again.”

Lateral thinking requires the ability to trust that a model is working without understanding why, and then discard it the moment it stops working

“lateral thinking requires that you have the ability to not have to know why a model is working and trust that it just is and then discard it the moment it's not.”

A Substack author (Elgato Amado) wrote that 'the internet is going to be unusable in a year' due to AI spam and degradation, which Doomberg finds concerning and is 'thinking about today,' indicating worry about AI's disruptive effects on internet infrastructure.

“A really scary piece today on a Substack I read, friend of mine authors it, um Elgato, uh Elgato Amado, um he wrote a piece about how um the internet is going to be unusable in a year”

Doomberg publishes 90+ pieces per year and reviews 5-6 of their past calls every 3-6 months to assess which were clearly right, clearly wrong, or nuanced, and finds that audiences appreciate this honest retrospective assessment.

“we publish, you know, 90 plus times a year like we do, you know, nobody bats a thousand. So, um, one of the things we do is about every three or six months, you know, once a quarter, couple times a year, we'll just write a piece that looks back at five or six uh, of our calls and, you know, we have a pretty good hit rate”

Doomberg rigorously fact-checks their work and is aware that getting minor details wrong (someone's name, a date) can collapse the credibility of an entire piece, making fact-checking harder than most people think, especially now that they charge for the product.

“there's no typos, very few typos. Um we we've we do we rigorously fact-check as much as we can. There's nothing worse than getting a minor detail wrong in a story that collapses the credibility of the whole piece”

The axiom that the US must be globally engaged to secure resources has not worked its way through the State Department and diplomatic class despite the shale revolution making it obsolete.

“that changing axiom hasn't really worked its way through the through the sort of State Department um um diplomatic class.”

Google, Facebook, and Nvidia will be setting up on military campuses, leveraging the Defense Production Act to strip the NRC of the ability to block nuclear reactor deployment for data centers.

“I think you're going to see Google and Facebook and then Nvidia setting up on military campuses, leveraging the um, you know, Defense Production Powers Act or whatever it's called. Um, and um, basically stripping the NRC of the ability to block, impede, or otherwise veto the development of safe nuclear power while Trump sets about the task of gutting the NRC and rebuilding it back in his image.”

Trump 'correctly believes' that if he had won the 2020 election there would not have been a war in Ukraine, positioning Ukraine as Biden's war, not Trump's, and therefore Trump can more plausibly claim non-responsibility for Ukraine's potential defeat.

“Trump is is caught in trap. Um he I think correctly believes that if he had won the 2020 election, there would not have been a war in Ukraine”

When Doomberg asked his Canadian military friend 'when did you begin to care about who rules the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas?' and 'would you send your boys to go fight to decide who gets to rule the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas?', the friend could not justify the moral basis for military intervention.

“I said um when did you begin to care about who rules the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas? Um and why do you care about it? It's like an honest question, right? Like and would you send your boys to go fight to decide who gets to rule the Russian-speaking part of the Donbas?”

Trump did not stop in Israel during his Middle East trip, which Doomberg found 'interesting' as a signal that he is not prioritizing Israel relations in his geopolitical pivot.

“he just spent a lot of time in the Middle East and got noticed that he didn't stop in Israel which was interesting”

Trump declared he wants $50 oil and seems likely to get it, with Saudi Arabia willing to help pull off this outcome.

“Trump has declared that he wants $50 oil and he seems likely to get it. And um the Saudis seem willing to to help Trump pull it off.”

Trump is likely to walk away from Ukraine (80% probability), cut a deal with Iran (80% probability), and cut a deal with China (60% probability) based on gut assessment of his diplomatic preferences and leverage.

“Odds are that Trump's going to walk away from Ukraine. Um and that that the narrative will be the sort of classic stab in the back narrative...I give it um 80 20 cuts a deal with Iran. And and 60 40 cuts a deal with China.”

The friction and transition costs from the current grid trajectory to distributed SMR/AI-dedicated power systems will be 'interesting' and challenging, but necessary to prevent AI from distorting energy markets.

“this doesn't mean that the friction of the transition from where we are on, you know, this trajectory we're on today to that realization isn't going to be um let's say interesting”

Trump's selection of Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary faced unfair treatment post-nomination; treatment differs from Rubio because Rubio is a senator and club member, showing establishment gatekeeping.

“the way in which he was treated after being nominated was shameful. I feel like it's the standard thing, right? Everybody's trying to figure out what they can try to poke holes in no matter what the resume is. So, standard thing. Yeah, but you know, they didn't do that to Rubio because he's a senator and he's a member of the club. So, I it's not always that way, you know.”

Doomberg genuinely believes Trump wants to catalyze a manufacturing renaissance, especially in the Midwest, having witnessed the devastation of financialization and globalization firsthand from his own Midwest residence and corporate experience

“I genuinely believe that Trump wants to catalyze a manufacturing renaissance, especially in the Midwest, and I live in the Midwest. I've seen the devastation and the consequences of financialization and globalization firsthand. Um participated in it when I was in corporate.”

In the short term, AI advancement is 'bullish for demand' (energy demand), in the intermediate term it's 'bullish for supply' (drives energy production), but 'there is going to be a gap' where energy supply lags demand growth.

“in the short term it is uh bullish for demand. And in the intermediate term it's bullish for supply. Mhm. Um but there is going to be a gap”

Doomberg lost subscribers and had to retract or qualify a prediction that 'the US is not broke' after 'liberation day' happened and Trump announced policies perceived as fiscally irresponsible (referred to as 'the big beautiful bill').

“we had made a call, um, earlier in the year for example, that, um, we we wrote a piece literally called the US is not broke. Um, then liberation day happened and threw the whole economic situation into, uh, a mess. And now we see the big beautiful bill is, um, you know, not exactly fiscally responsible”

If Trump achieves peace settlements in Ukraine, the Middle East, and China, he should receive three Nobel Peace Prizes, but many people in the US do not want those objectives accomplished.

“if he gets it done, they should give him a Nobel Peace Prize. Um three of them. Um but we'll see. Lots of people in the US don't want any of those objectives to get done”

AI as currently being deployed is not cutting-edge AI research; it's cutting-edge compared to standard computing but Doomberg is a firm believer and is investing in private AI markets

“Um and so, you know, AI in general is a derivative of energy. And AI, like what we're seeing now is not the cutting edge research of AI. It's just being deployed. It's very cutting edge compared to standard computing. I'm a firm believer. I'm participating in the private markets. I'm sold.”